09-20-13 09:24 PM
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  1. BrandonPBaby's Avatar
    That's why the actual number of bb10 devices will probably be closer to the median than the mean.

    Not a bearish comment by any means, but the outliers will clearly skew the mean estimates.

    2.5m-3.0m seems very reasonable with margins lower due to discounting of Z10s.



    Posted via CB10
    09-17-13 09:17 PM
  2. Tariq Nasir's Avatar
    That's why the actual number of bb10 devices will probably be closer to the median than the mean.

    Not a bearish comment by any means, but the outliers will clearly skew the mean estimates.

    2.5m-3.0m seems very reasonable with margins lower due to discounting of Z10s.



    Posted via CB10
    I think the Q10 will propel them closer to the 4 million mark.

    Posted via CB10
    09-17-13 10:16 PM
  3. birdman_38's Avatar
    I think the Q10 will propel them closer to the 4 million mark.
    Hahaha!

    Tariq, what is it like to have unrealistic expectations? Do you get let down a lot?
    09-17-13 10:28 PM
  4. ray689's Avatar
    Hahaha!

    Tariq, what is it like to have unrealistic expectations? Do you get let down a lot?
    How is he being unrealistic? Last quarter they were at 2.7 without a full quarter with the Q.


    Posted via CB10
    09-17-13 10:30 PM
  5. m1a1mg's Avatar
    Pure conjecture here ray, since I'm really not in the know, like everyone else.

    I'd guess that the last quarter numbers reflected getting the Z10 and partially the Q10 into channels. With the Z10 apparently not doing so well, I'd think the Q would have made up most of the shipments of OS10. Depending on who you listen to, that may be what differentiates between not so good (expected) and horrible.

    EDIT: OS10, not PS10. Duh!!
    09-17-13 10:45 PM
  6. ray689's Avatar
    Pure conjecture here ray, since I'm really not in the know, like everyone else.

    I'd guess that the last quarter numbers reflected getting the Z10 and partially the Q10 into channels. With the Z10 apparently not doing so well, I'd think the Q would have made up most of the shipments of OS10. Depending on who you listen to, that may be what differentiates between not so good (expected) and horrible.

    EDIT: OS10, not PS10. Duh!!
    The Q10 was only available for 1 month (for last quarter) and in only limited locations was it not? This makes me doubt that it would have made up most of the last quarter numbers.

    Posted via CB10
    Kid Vibe likes this.
    09-17-13 10:54 PM
  7. BrandonPBaby's Avatar
    I think the Q10 will propel them closer to the 4 million mark.

    Posted via CB10
    Fair enough logic. I'm assuming almost no new Z10 sales due to full channels and limited reorders. We will find out in a week.

    I hope you're right!!!!!

    Posted via CB10
    09-17-13 10:57 PM
  8. fin2007's Avatar
    If they can sell 4M BB10 phones, then they would not even think of selling the company right now.
    09-17-13 11:52 PM
  9. m1a1mg's Avatar
    The Q10 was only available for 1 month (for last quarter) and in only limited locations was it not? This makes me doubt that it would have made up most of the last quarter numbers.

    Posted via CB10
    If it was available in 1 month of last quarter, that means it shipped prior to being available, right?
    09-18-13 07:14 AM
  10. Marc_Paradise's Avatar
    1.7mm BB10


    On the other hand at least we can say that we don't have results from the z30 and surely that will turn it around.

    Sorry. Some bitter leaking out :/

    Posted via CB10
    Last edited by Marc_Paradise; 09-18-13 at 02:44 PM.
    09-18-13 08:34 AM
  11. Tyler Nellissen's Avatar
    My guess: 1.5 million bb10, 800,000 bbos

    Posted via CB10
    09-18-13 10:15 AM
  12. fin2007's Avatar
    My guess: 1.5 million bb10, 800,000 bbos

    Posted via CB10
    1.5M? with anything under 2M, if the company could not sell itself before Nov., the stock price will drop below $7.
    09-18-13 10:34 AM
  13. sergey_IL's Avatar
    I don't what to expect, but the facts are:
    0) 10.1MR improved stability and battery life.
    1) worldwide availability of Z10 and heavy discounts.
    2) worldwide availability of Q10 and trade-ins in some markets.
    3) Q5 released and was available for two month.
    4) 9720 released.

    EDIT:
    I think 10.2 leaks may be also helped.
    All the rumors about company being sold and broken, may damaged the sales.
    But rumors may also helped the sales, who knows?
    09-18-13 10:44 AM
  14. undone's Avatar
    my guess 5.4 bb10s
    09-18-13 11:32 AM
  15. anon1727506's Avatar
    I don't what to expect, but the facts are:
    0) 10.1MR improved stability and battery life.
    1) worldwide availability of Z10 and heavy discounts.
    2) worldwide availability of Q10 and trade-ins in some markets.
    3) Q5 released and was available for two month.
    4) 9720 released.

    EDIT:
    I think 10.2 leaks may be also helped.
    All the rumors about company being sold and broken, may damaged the sales.
    But rumors may also helped the sales, who knows?
    Other than collectors that want to own a limited edition last of it's kind.... don't see how the "SALE" talk would help sales of devices.

    That we had several productions cuts, that channel checks report all show slow sales even at launch of the Q10 here in the US, and BlackBerry in a panic (sure seems that way) to sell itself, and that a major carrier like Verizon doesn't even show BlackBerry devices with all of their other smartphone options, unless you specifically select BlackBerry... I don't think your facts are going to be of much help.
    09-18-13 12:22 PM
  16. epyon52328's Avatar
    my guess 5.4 bb10s
    I think that is way off the mark. Last quarter was only 2.7 million units and with the news of the company selling itself plus the rollout of the Q5 and with a full quarter of Q10 sales I would expect between 3-3.5 million BB10 sales. Anything more than that would be very unexpected.

    Sent from my Q10
    09-18-13 01:18 PM
  17. undone's Avatar
    I think that is way off the mark. Last quarter was only 2.7 million units and with the news of the company selling itself plus the rollout of the Q5 and with a full quarter of Q10 sales I would expect between 3-3.5 million BB10 sales. Anything more than that would be very unexpected.

    Sent from my Q10
    Completely agree. I am just feeling contrarian. We had all these analysts talking up the numbers prior, then it missed, now we have the opposite. Also BB has been exceptionally quiet, which again is contrary to how they have acted in the past. So I am throwing out a long shot.
    09-18-13 02:17 PM
  18. Tariq Nasir's Avatar
    Completely agree. I am just feeling contrarian. We had all these analysts talking up the numbers prior, then it missed, now we have the opposite. Also BB has been exceptionally quiet, which again is contrary to how they have acted in the past. So I am throwing out a long shot.
    In light of today's announcement that BlackBerry is slashing up to 40 percent of its work force, i revise my BB10 estimate to 3.3 million.

    Posted via CB10
    09-18-13 02:32 PM
  19. cgk's Avatar
    I will add people and do updates to list later

    Sent from my XT890 using Tapatalk 4
    09-18-13 02:45 PM
  20. ray689's Avatar
    In light of today's announcement that BlackBerry is slashing up to 40 percent of its work force, i revise my BB10 estimate to 3.3 million.

    Posted via CB10
    That was not an announcement from Blackberry was it?

    Posted via CB10
    09-18-13 02:50 PM
  21. fin2007's Avatar
    In light of today's announcement that BlackBerry is slashing up to 40 percent of its work force, i revise my BB10 estimate to 3.3 million.

    Posted via CB10
    If 40% number is true, no way they can 2.5M+ bb10 phones.
    09-18-13 02:57 PM
  22. Tariq Nasir's Avatar
    That was not an announcement from Blackberry was it?

    Posted via CB10
    Nope but they haven't exactly dispelled it either.

    Posted via CB10
    09-18-13 05:52 PM
  23. Tariq Nasir's Avatar
    If 40% number is true, no way they can 2.5M+ bb10 phones.
    Not necessarily but your probably right. It might be a condition imposed by the prospective buyers.

    Posted via CB10
    09-18-13 05:52 PM
  24. birdman_38's Avatar
    In light of today's announcement that BlackBerry is slashing up to 40 percent of its work force, i revise my BB10 estimate to 3.3 million.
    You're coming around buddy! Lol
    09-18-13 06:05 PM
  25. Tariq Nasir's Avatar
    You're coming around buddy! Lol
    I guess it's not the end of the world. I was thinking about this today- so what if BlackBerry only sells 2 percent of all phones in the world. As long as they focus on developing a premium brand and maintain growing level of profitability through increased service offerings, they'll be fine.

    Posted via CB10
    09-18-13 06:14 PM
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