04-03-13 08:41 PM
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  1. kill_9's Avatar
    Kill_9, I believe that 1M came after Q4.
    Posted via CB10
    Which makes the additional one million device order all the more powerful a statement about the distributor's confidence in the BlackBerry 10 family of smartphones. BlackBerry wouldn't sign an agreement for one million devices if the other party was not absolutely committed to taking possession of 90% of the order by the end of the agreement time frame.
    03-29-13 04:13 PM
  2. aha's Avatar
    Richard I think this proves you wrong that they need to sell 50m z10 to be profitable this year

    Posted via CB10
    ROFL! Nice troll....too bad I never said that. Sigh.....this place IS getting worse.
    You said that anything less than 50m z10 would be a failure that results in the death of BBRY. I am too busy to pull the thread but it exists and it was recent.

    Posted via CB10
    Too lazy to go through the whole thread but, did Richard say it or not? Anyone?
    semperfi45 likes this.
    03-29-13 06:20 PM
  3. semperfi45's Avatar
    Decent numbers based upon your personal speculation. :-) Let's wait for the global sales reports at the end of Q1.
    Good idea. I had the stock up, BB 15.09 +0.29 (1.96%) Not much but up.
    03-29-13 07:26 PM
  4. BBInPlay's Avatar
    Service revenue increased steadily through mid 2011, hitting a huge peak at the end of 2011. It declined throughout 2012. RIM tried to attribute 2012 losses to the service interruption problems and the resulting credits granted - something I did not feel fully accounted for the situation. Now losses have continued. I stand by my words: the erosion "appears to have begun in earnest".

    PS. The fact that you seem to be trying to portray "3%" as "slow", does not discount my phrase "earnest erosion". First, as I just mentioned, I am not just looking at this quarter (I see that as increased evidence of the trend), second, this is something very important and serious to the company and thus the word "earnest".
    But it is more than slow enough to wait for the high gross margin of the z10 to keep the company more than profitable. Everyone knows the service revenue from BIS would disappear, the rate of decline is the key and it is much slower than expected.

    Posted via CB10
    03-29-13 08:41 PM
  5. richardat's Avatar
    But it is more than slow enough to wait for the high gross margin of the z10 to keep the company more than profitable. Everyone knows the service revenue from BIS would disappear, the rate of decline is the key and it is much slower than expected.

    Posted via CB10
    I did not say it wasn't. I said it will be an interesting transition to watch. I am not certain how it will play out. I don't think z10 sales will as robust as many were hoping for, so I'm not sure it will compensate. Revenue is down yet again. With cost cutting, I don't think anything dramatic will happen though.....make a bit/lose a bit/break even seems most likely right now.
    03-29-13 09:40 PM
  6. richardat's Avatar
    Too lazy to go through the whole thread but, did Richard say it or not? Anyone?
    LOL! This reminds me of when people go to forums and post a question, for which the answer can be seen on the first page of a google search.

    You made a post, quoted 3 posts in it, will await an answer, and come back to look at it.....instead of reading a page or so!

    I want to strange you for laziness, while self-sufficiency advocates, and your former teachers weep quietly in the background, but I have to at least give you credit for admitting it. Just read post 74 then.
    BBInPlay likes this.
    03-29-13 09:49 PM
  7. aha's Avatar
    Richard I think this proves you wrong that they need to sell 50m z10 to be profitable this year

    Posted via CB10
    ROFL! Nice troll....too bad I never said that. Sigh.....this place IS getting worse.
    You said that anything less than 50m z10 would be a failure that results in the death of BBRY. I am too busy to pull the thread but it exists and it was recent.

    Posted via CB10
    Richardat. Thanks for pulling that. You are right it is not the same thing that I said. But the concept is similar so you could see how I would make that mistake, especially considering how long and pessimistic the post was.

    Posted via CB10
    OH....so now it's not "profitability". You know what a troll often does? Take somebody's message, misrepresent it, take it out of context, be willing to put the time in to accuse the person of it, but then, claim they're "too busy" to actually find out what was said, and address it honestly.

    This is actually the 2nd time I've noticed sometime claim something erroneous about what I said in that thread, I left it without checking follow-ups, and I probably should go back and see.....but it seemed a waste of time. Won't pollute this thread further, but for those who didnt' see that thread, in broad terms my message was:

    -20 mil. may well be enough for profitability (DOH....a1s23f4g5 troll!!!), but it isn't enough to be a strong #3. It will be enough to survive the cycle. Meanwhile, you've lost your best chance to make a huge turnaround, in people's minds. You may also be further behind in terms of apps, support, and tech. You are jumping back in race, in which competitors spend more money on R & D than your entire revenue. If after years of development, you weren't able to shock the industry with you new product, can you do so while on the run with the big boys? It's certainly possible, but seems less likely.

    -to be a "strong #3", you need numbers more like 50 million - why? Because 1 and 2 will be selling 150mil. plus. 50 mil. is nowhere close obviously, but enough to 1.seperate from rest of pack (assuming they stay constant), 2.make enough impact so that the industry and developers consider you one of the big players, and support you accordingly - very important

    -don't reach that strong #3, and BB as we knew it is over. (been saying this for....over a year now) Survive or not, become even distant #3 or not, they will effectively be marginalized to a small niche player, and will not be regaining any semblance of the former glory or status that once was.

    I stand by this, but it is complicated and requires context and elaboration. I am deeply disappointed that some in that thread, and still, yell things like: he thinks they need 50mil to profit!! Stupid ____!!!! Doesn't know anything!!!

    Summary over, sorry for the tangent everyone else.
    LOL! This reminds me of when people go to forums and post a question, for which the answer can be seen on the first page of a google search.

    You made a post, quoted 3 posts in it, will await an answer, and come back to look at it.....instead of reading a page or so!

    I want to strange you for laziness, while self-sufficiency advocates, and your former teachers weep quietly in the background, but I have to at least give you credit for admitting it. Just read post 74 then.
    Ouch! But I will shrug it off.

    BTW, I don't really wait for answer on this forum.... I set my forum settings to automatically subscribe myself to threads I replied, this way I got email notices on all the new replies after my post... with the peek and flow and hub in my Z10 this becomes effortless, so yes, my approach was the most efficient way to find the answer for me. This is how Blackberry people roll.... hyper efficiently
    richardat likes this.
    03-29-13 10:28 PM
  8. texazzpete's Avatar
    Ouch! But I will shrug it off.

    BTW, I don't really wait for answer on this forum.... I set my forum settings to automatically subscribe myself to threads I replied, this way I got email notices on all the new replies after my post... with the peek and flow and hub in my Z10 this becomes effortless, so yes, my approach was the most efficient way to find the answer for me. This is how Blackberry people roll.... hyper efficiently
    ... Or you could just use Tapatalk and head over to the 'participated' section to see all replies to topics you've participated in....without clogging your mailbox.

    That's how I do it on my galaxy note

    Sent from my GT-N7100 using Tapatalk 2
    ccbs likes this.
    03-30-13 02:16 AM
  9. aha's Avatar
    ... Or you could just use Tapatalk and head over to the 'participated' section to see all replies to topics you've participated in....without clogging your mailbox.

    That's how I do it on my galaxy note

    Sent from my GT-N7100 using Tapatalk 2
    CB10 has that too. Tried both apps but I still prefer email because when email arrives I get notified by flashing LED or a tone.

    Again, the benefit of email is you don't need to actively seeking or waiting for the information, the information is pushed towards you, and you check it when you get a second.
    03-30-13 03:13 AM
  10. Mange Schillis's Avatar
    With regards to the loss of subs. In Q4 2011 Blackberry sold the highest amount of devices in any quarter, 14,9 million, asuming lots of those sold on 2 year contracts it's not really a surprise they lost a lot of subs since most of those subscribers probably couldn't buy a new BB10 even if they wanted to during this latest Q4.
    howarmat, E_J and Zarpan like this.
    03-30-13 10:22 AM
  11. E_J's Avatar
    The reported one million BlackBerry Z10 smartphones sold during the quarter were obviously sold to end-user and organizations deploying the new BlackBerry smartphone. The addition one million devices bought by "a mysterious party" has been explained to be a distributor and as such probably represents a just-in-time (JIT) delivery agreement between BlackBerry and the distributor serving multiple retailers and/or carriers. No inventory of one million devices is being staged in a warehouse; that would violate every supply chain practice under the sun. Did the order for those one million BlackBerry 10 devices from the distributor occur before or after 4Q2013?
    Well since that 1M order came in their Q1, we could assume that BBRY's Q2 will be significantly better since many more countries will have BB10 devices for sale for more than 1 month.
    03-30-13 01:34 PM
  12. BBInPlay's Avatar
    I did not say it wasn't. I said it will be an interesting transition to watch. I am not certain how it will play out. I don't think z10 sales will as robust as many were hoping for, so I'm not sure it will compensate. Revenue is down yet again. With cost cutting, I don't think anything dramatic will happen though.....make a bit/lose a bit/break even seems most likely right now.
    They will sell between 6-8 million os 10 (q10+z10) and 3-5 os7. Service revenues down 8-10%. They will make a nice profit, and the next quarter will kill. Mark my words and we can review when appropriate.

    Posted via CB10
    03-30-13 02:49 PM
  13. EchoTango's Avatar
    It's clear this is going to take longer than anyone thought. The US BB10 launch has not been an immediate hit and it now looks like it will be a walk back to a more proportionate market share and not a sprint.BBerry has to continue to deliver and keep moving forward. The BB10 OS has to be continuously updated to close the gaps identified in the reviews and other product data. I believe Thor gets this, as he is more than aware standing still means death in this marketplace.

    I think the mixed outcomes of the past few weeks is a measure of how difficult this task is really going to be. What's encouraging is no one at BBerry is loosing their heads and making silly panic driven statements. I believe this is a measure of the maturity BBerry has gained over the past few difficult years
    03-30-13 03:15 PM
  14. peter9477's Avatar
    The US BB10 launch has not been an immediate hit ...
    Did you hear some numbers already? I haven't seen anything that would let one make that conclusion yet.

    The only thing I've had so far are my own app sales from the last few days, which suggest some evidence that the US launch is doing quite nicely. Even that's too soon to say, since it's only a few days of sales, and not everybody jumps in to buy apps in the first couple of days.

    If you've actually heard numbers, please share them. Otherwise maybe it's too soon to close the books on whether or not the US launch has been a hit.
    dusdal and Shanerredflag like this.
    03-30-13 09:12 PM
  15. Mange Schillis's Avatar
    To be profitable on the hardware they only have to start selling 1M per quarter in the US and then hopefully grov from there. Since they kept selling more than 2M older devices per quarter in the US up until late last year I don't see how they could fail this when the Q10 is out. Of course 1M in Apple terms is far from a hit but BBRY has to just stop the bleeding first.
    peter9477 and Shanerredflag like this.
    03-31-13 02:47 AM
  16. FFR's Avatar
    To be profitable on the hardware they only have to start selling 1M per quarter in the US and then hopefully grov from there. Since they kept selling more than 2M older devices per quarter in the US up until late last year I don't see how they could fail this when the Q10 is out. Of course 1M in Apple terms is far from a hit but BBRY has to just stop the bleeding first.

    Blackberry is looking more and more like palm did back in the day.

    "Palm (NASDAQ: PALM) has not disclosed its total sales since the Pre's launch in May, but Charter Equity Research analyst Ed Snyder wrote in a report that by his estimates, 370,000 units have sold since the Pre went on sale in May. Snyder estimates that Palm is producing 15,000 units per day and is on its way to selling one million units in its first quarter of sales."
    04-03-13 07:34 AM
  17. peter9477's Avatar
    Blackberry is looking more and more like palm did back in the day.
    BlackBerry (which has two capital Bs in the name) is so far from resembling Palm that at this point anyone who even suggests that is just making a fool of himself.

    Really, that argument was used successfully by the bears early last year, but you'll have to come up with some new material now if you want anyone to take you seriously.
    04-03-13 09:15 AM
  18. aha's Avatar
    BlackBerry (which has two capital Bs in the name) is so far from resembling Palm that at this point anyone who even suggests that is just making a fool of himself.

    Really, that argument was used successfully by the bears early last year, but you'll have to come up with some new material now if you want anyone to take you seriously.
    Love the correction note on BB's name, that's a sign of hard core BlackBerry fan.

    Regarding the mentioning of the resemblance of BlackBerry to Palm, I think it's a HUGE step backwards for them after declaring BBRY's death last year.
    04-03-13 09:41 AM
  19. bk1022's Avatar
    Love the correction note on BB's name, that's a sign of hard core BlackBerry fan.

    Regarding the mentioning of the resemblance of BlackBerry to Palm, I think it's a HUGE step backwards for them after declaring BBRY's death last year.
    Not sure how Blackberry (note that I don't care how BBRY is spelled) is like Palm. BBRY is profitable, they have a large number of absolute customers, and they have several businesses that could be independently sold depending on how they plan on proceeding with their business.

    Some major points here are: (1) Hardware design is fundamentally a cheaper undertaking nowadays with system-on-chip availability; (2) The software finally should endure with reduced maintenance cost going forward; (3) They own QNX and Paratek MW which will influence revenue on their own; (4) They have an thoroughly diversified and material existing customer base.

    Not to say their future is a cake-walk, but analysts have been touting an approximate number of 12 million phones sold in 12 months as a basis for continuing business as-is. They are not there yet, but it doesn't seem impossible. Palm seemed impossible.
    RubberChicken76 likes this.
    04-03-13 10:26 AM
  20. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    Well since that 1M order came in their Q1, we could assume that BBRY's Q2 will be significantly better since many more countries will have BB10 devices for sale for more than 1 month.
    As an aside:

    Avoiding the "shipped vs. sold" argument for a second, this basically means that BlackBerry has probably shipped more Blackberry 10 devices by the end of their second month on market than they've shipped PlayBooks since launch.

    - They've shipped about 2.3 million PlayBook since April 2011 (as of March 2nd. I'm sure there are more now, but probably not many).

    - They shipped a million Z10s by March 2nd and then had an order from a specific partner for a million more Blackberry 10 devices on March 13th, while launching in other countries and continuing to sell through other partners.

    So there's at least one meagre success story. :-)
    04-03-13 10:47 AM
  21. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    Blackberry is looking more and more like palm did back in the day.
    BlackBerry: No debt, $3 billion in cash, 76 million active customers

    Palm: Heavy debt load, using words like "our ability to continue is a growing concern" due to cash constraints, a tiny userbase in comparison and shipments very small.

    This argument is quite superficial as there are distinct differences.
    04-03-13 10:54 AM
  22. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    A trip down memory lane:

    Palm Reports Q1 FY 2010 Results
    Palm Reports Q2 FY 2010 Results
    Palm Reports Q3 FY 2010 Results

    To put this in perspective, Palm sold through about 1.8 million Smartphones (all models) in the first three quarters of the Pre's release, leading up to the acquisition by HP. In contrast, in BlackBerry's most recent quarter (with 18 month old devices, the Z10 only in a few markets and missing Christmas), BlackBerry sold 7.9 million.
    Acumenight likes this.
    04-03-13 11:04 AM
  23. FFR's Avatar
    To put this in perspective, Palm sold through about 1.8 million Smartphones (all models) in the first three quarters
    Did you adjust for inflation?

    Smartphone penetration in 2009 vs today.

    Earnings call: first numbers-imageuploadedbytapatalk-21365035132.636417.jpg


    BlackBerry sold 7.9 million.
    I thought blackberry shipped 6 million smartphones last quarter?

    *Edit*
    So I found some numbers. Palm actually sold 300,000 pres in the first month of availability, on only one carrier in one country.

    http://m.intomobile.com/2009/07/01/p...stac=0&mstac=0

    Us smartphone penetration (for perspective)
    2008:11%
    2009: 17% or 26.9 million
    2012: 54% or 125.9 million

    http://blogs.forrester.com/consumer_...one-kinda.html

    http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Pre...r_Market_Share
    Last edited by FFR; 04-03-13 at 09:05 PM.
    04-03-13 08:41 PM
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