04-03-13 08:41 PM
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  1. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    These numbers are OK, not too impressive, IMHO.
    Considering the pent up demand, i'd have expected the UK and Canada sales to be much better.
    Canadian sales were up 62% quarter on quarter.
    03-28-13 09:50 AM
  2. Gnomesane's Avatar
    I think we can call this quarter a "push".

    Looking with a positive perspective, the product transition is still very much underway and it's too early to say which way this is going to go. Looking at the negative view, the Z10 hasn't exactly been an initial huge success and more time will be needed to see if it really takes off. The Q10 will now need to be a larger success than earlier thought, if BBerry is going to acheive the solid 3rd place provider.
    What struck me is the 55% adoption rate of iOS/Android. I know they reported approximately 50% earlier than this, but now it's official. To me that signals a significant existing Blackberry userbase that is waiting on the Q10. The sooner they can get it out to market, the better methinks.
    BlackistheBerry and Jonny-R like this.
    03-28-13 09:52 AM
  3. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    Yes, earnings are always good but 1 million Z10's shipped is not exactly a home run, given the market.
    To be fair, it wasn't available anywhere for 2/3rds of the quarter (including not at all at Christmas) and it was only available in some markets for portions of the rest ... and others not at all. To me, this is 'too early'.

    I was encouraged to hear of the 62% increase in Canadian sales.

    Also, 6 million unts shipped is "down" when you compare it to the normal 15 million volumes seen a year ago. I
    In the year ago quarter, they shipped 11 million.

    The Q10 will now need to be a larger success than earlier thought, if BBerry is going to acheive the solid 3rd place provider.
    They are third place. Unless Windows Phone suddenly has 77 million users. :-)
    EchoTango likes this.
    03-28-13 09:53 AM
  4. FFR's Avatar
    I'm sure some uninformed tech blogger will declare, "Z10 a failure! Only 600,000 or so sold". And not understand what actually was said.
    600,000 z10's sold is disappointing.

    I remember the palm pre selling around 400,000 in its first month.
    richardat likes this.
    03-28-13 10:00 AM
  5. Gnomesane's Avatar
    600,000 z10's sold is disappointing.

    I remember the palm pre selling around 400,000 in its first month.
    I think you need to go back and re-read RubberChicken76's post...
    03-28-13 10:05 AM
  6. FFR's Avatar
    They are third place. Unless Windows Phone suddenly has 77 million users. :-)
    Bb10 hasn't even breached the million user threshold.
    They are in last place.
    03-28-13 10:05 AM
  7. Gnomesane's Avatar
    Bb10 hasn't even breached the million user threshold.
    They are in last place.
    Nice talking to you. Have a good day!
    Enyigma likes this.
    03-28-13 10:07 AM
  8. arvind1983's Avatar
    That's a very good question.
    I am a new Z10 user, do they count me? :P
    03-28-13 10:08 AM
  9. texazzpete's Avatar
    They are third place. Unless Windows Phone suddenly has 77 million users. :-)
    Nice try, but we're talking about market positioning in relation to attracting developer support and serious commitment from the carriers.

    Nobody is pushing the OS7 devices in the big, developed markets...and no serious developer is doing anything for OS7.

    For all intents and purposes...they still need to earn 3rd place.
    anon1727506 and ccbs like this.
    03-28-13 10:13 AM
  10. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    600,000 z10's sold is disappointing.

    I remember the palm pre selling around 400,000 in its first month.
    You're not reading.
    03-28-13 10:16 AM
  11. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    Nice try, but we're talking about market positioning in relation to attracting developer support and serious commitment from the carriers.
    Actually, you are. I was talking about installed base. I agree with your points BTW. Definitely see Microsoft doing a pretty aggressive job getting the apps that have eluded BlackBerry. Alec Saunders is doing a much better job than the guys before him for sure, but still work to do. Not sure the carriers seem super committed to either, though this varies by region.
    03-28-13 10:19 AM
  12. undone's Avatar
    Well Verizon just released today. And if BB devices move for them, I wouldn't be surprised if they mention something just to rub it in ATT's face.
    03-28-13 10:23 AM
  13. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    Bb10 hasn't even breached the million user threshold.
    They are in last place.
    Thank you for exactly proving my point.

    As of March 2nd, they had shipped 1 million devices in the markets they were in as of March 2nd. Thorsten had a bit of trouble estimating sellthrough, but he pegged it as 2/3 or 3/4 of sell in and noted as well that inventory was turning quickly so it was hard to calculate.

    Since March 2nd (it's now March 28th), there have been more country launches with the product now in 40 countries (including the US) and its also continued to sell in the countries that it was sellling in on March 2nd.

    I don't claim to have the latest, up-to-the-minute sales figures that BlackBerry has, but it would be silly to assume there aren't more than 1 million Z10 users in the world right now. Unless sales have dropped to zero as of March 3rd and none of the new countries launched have sold a single unit. :-)
    03-28-13 10:23 AM
  14. Jaybles's Avatar
    Where does the 1million z10's sold to an unnamed partner come into these figures? Or is that reflected in the next quarter?

    Posted via CB10
    03-28-13 10:25 AM
  15. texazzpete's Avatar
    Nigeria + South Africa probably accounted for more than 30000 units.
    Indonesia, Thailand, Philipines perhaps 80000 units
    UAE and other middle east countries? Perhaps 50000 units?
    India? Maybe 30000 units?
    Let's assume Europe (excluding UK) accounted for 30000 units.


    Assuming 700k BB10 phones actually sold through to consumers, that means in around one month of sales in strong markets like the UK and Canada...only around 450k Z10s were sold.


    Decent numbers, but not really impressive IMHO. At least when you consider the rhetoric...and the euphoric posts of record numbers after the launch in those two territories.
    richardat likes this.
    03-28-13 10:27 AM
  16. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    Where does the 1million z10's sold to an unnamed partner come into these figures? Or is that reflected in the next quarter?

    Posted via CB10
    Q1 2014 as the Q4 number ended March 2nd.
    03-28-13 10:28 AM
  17. texazzpete's Avatar
    Where does the 1million z10's sold to an unnamed partner come into these figures? Or is that reflected in the next quarter?

    Posted via CB10
    One million BB10 phones. Z10 + Q10. May be reflected in the next quarter.
    Bear in mind that a report came out recently that pointed at a major distributor as the purchaser...and they usually supply Verizon. Possible that many of the BBs sold to US customers may come from that stock...so a large part of that number will be captured in the US sales data for next quarter.
    03-28-13 10:29 AM
  18. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    Nigeria + South Africa probably accounted for more than 30000 units.
    Indonesia, Thailand, Philipines perhaps 80000 units
    UAE and other middle east countries? Perhaps 50000 units?
    India? Maybe 30000 units?
    Let's assume Europe (excluding UK) accounted for 30000 units.


    Assuming 700k BB10 phones actually sold through to consumers, that means in around one month of sales in strong markets like the UK and Canada...only around 450k Z10s were sold.


    Decent numbers, but not really impressive IMHO. At least when you consider the rhetoric...and the euphoric posts of record numbers after the launch in those two territories.
    Decent numbers based upon your personal speculation. :-) Let's wait for the global sales reports at the end of Q1.
    03-28-13 10:29 AM
  19. howarmat's Avatar
    Where does the 1million z10's sold to an unnamed partner come into these figures? Or is that reflected in the next quarter?

    Posted via CB10
    they arent in there, next quarter probably will be
    03-28-13 10:33 AM
  20. tiziano27's Avatar
    I'm sure some uninformed tech blogger will declare, "Z10 a failure! Only 600,000 or so sold". And not understand what actually was said.
    I understood exactly that 600k to 750k units sold. 400k to 250k units in inventory and in transit seems reasonable.

    Do you have the exact quote of the CEO?
    03-28-13 10:40 AM
  21. Gnomesane's Avatar
    Nigeria + South Africa probably accounted for more than 30000 units.
    Indonesia, Thailand, Philipines perhaps 80000 units
    UAE and other middle east countries? Perhaps 50000 units?
    India? Maybe 30000 units?
    Let's assume Europe (excluding UK) accounted for 30000 units.
    Assuming 700k BB10 phones actually sold through to consumers, that means in around one month of sales in strong markets like the UK and Canada...only around 450k Z10s were sold.
    Decent numbers, but not really impressive IMHO. At least when you consider the rhetoric...and the euphoric posts of record numbers after the launch in those two territories.
    I think if you're looking at it in terms of Apple or Samsung sales, then obviously no. Not surprised they'd beat previous sales records (for a launch) as the smartphone market has grown substantially since Blackberry's last successful phone launch (I assume the BB Bold wasn't overly successful). But still good numbers for limited markets at a time when the public perception of Blackberry isn't the best.

    IMHO, this is a beginning, and one that's headed in the right direction. My guess is they will continue to grow in Q1, then more in Q2 as the new OS gets traction and more people adopt. It'll take time to hit a critical mass, and they're going to need to market heavily as well. They committed to increasing their marketing budget by 50% and now that the Z10 is available almost everywhere, it makes sense to start pushing the phone more heavily now. They don't have Apple's resources (mainly cash) that they can spend their way into shaping perceptions. They have no choice but to take a more thoughtful route and try to get the most bang for their buck.
    Acumenight likes this.
    03-28-13 10:40 AM
  22. Wiki Cydia's Avatar
    Thorsten had a bit of trouble estimating sellthrough, but he pegged it as 2/3 or 3/4 of sell in and noted as well that inventory was turning quickly so it was hard to calculate.
    That doesn't make any sense to me. These are web-connected mobile computers, not toy cars. If we assume that items sold are activated almost immediately, sell-through data can be calculated. If it's they don't want to publish that data, that's fine, but then just say that. They might take a near-term hit, but it's a hit they can recover from as long as the sell-in numbers remain strong.
    ccbs, richardat and Drew808 like this.
    03-28-13 10:41 AM
  23. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    I understood exactly that 600k to 750k units sold. 400k to 250k units in inventory and in transit seems reasonable.

    Do you have the exact quote of the CEO?
    I was actually thinking they'd be lucky to get 500,000 given the limited time of availability, missing Christmas and the rollout not being global. So I'm pleasantly surprised they moved that many between Jan 31st and March 2nd.
    03-28-13 10:42 AM
  24. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    That doesn't make any sense to me. These are web-connected mobile computers, not toy cars. If we assume that items sold are activated almost immediately, sell-through data can be calculated. If it's they don't want to publish that data, that's fine, but then just say that. They might take a near-term hit, but it's a hit they can recover from as long as the sell-in numbers remain strong.
    The harder issue is the physical inventory piece and then correlating that to sellthrough. In my old company, we used to calculate about three weeks between when a product would leave the manufacturer, to when it would hit distributors. And then another three weeks to when it would be on store shelves to be bought by customers. Inventory is always moving through various parts of the chain, as retailers, retail distributors, distributors and manufacturers are stocking the supply chain.

    Getting the activations is the easy part. Getting it as a percentage of shipments is trickier because the supply chain can vary so wildly on any given day or week. Especially with the Z10 which is new, getting promoted heavily and getting stocked and restocked and launching in new markets. The older devices are probably much more predictable in terms of run rate right now.
    03-28-13 10:47 AM
  25. howarmat's Avatar
    i think 600-800 is pretty good. Its not fantastic and i think avoiding the actual answer kinda tells you something. its certainly not bad for the limited availabilty. There is mixed reaction and i think that is probably justified. But its a start and will hopefully get better. Would be nice to hear some firm ATT numbers too.
    03-28-13 10:54 AM
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