Earnings call: first numbers
- It is interesting - I assumed cost cutting, and that has now been confirmed. This morning, just before the numbers, I was thinking about that, and wondering how much it would drop. I posted an article a little while back where Heins boasted that the cast would be "strong". This made me think it might not be down much, and I was thinking about how I felt about that. I actually am a little disappointed - I think they should have blown out tons of cash in one incredible spectacle of a launch. This overall is very defensive and managed to me, I think they want to "survive" BB10, and hope for better fortunes later.
I'm sure they would have booked a number of advertising campaigns prior to Q1, but those would not affect the cash position nor the earnings for this quarter. If they booked an ad campaign in February to run in April, I believe it would affect Q4 accounts payable, but Q1 cash balance and Q1 marketing expense and consequently Q1 income.
Their accounts payable did increase by $400 million vs Q3, so that's probably a combination of Z10 production and upcoming marketing campaigns.peter9477 and Bold_until_Hybrid_Comes like this.03-28-13 06:11 PMLike 2 - Peter9477- you are making some insightful points in this thread. I got the impression that subscribers does not count bb10 now based on WSJ commentary of the earnings call and a transcript of a CNBC interview later. But I do not have a definite answer.
Posted via CB10peter9477 likes this.03-28-13 06:32 PMLike 1 - I think Chris in his post said that Z10's are being counted as subscribers. So the term basically just means "Blackberry Users" now. And since subscriber fees doesn't seem the focus of the business model, counting the non-paying users as subscribers is probably fine.
Personally, I was surprised at the modest move in the market today. I kind of read this earnings release as an unequivocal proof by Blackberry that they are poised to be a lean mean cash generating machine going forward. Sure they only made a $94 million this quarter (but correct me if I'm wrong, but is that more than Facebook, Netflix and Amazon combined during their last quarter?). But if they can generate income like that with just a few weeks of sales of the Z10, wow, what are they going to do six months from now when they have good BB10 devices in every market? I could see them doing billion dollar income quarters within a year. I just don't see how a company that should be able to do that trades at a $8 billion market cap.BBInPlay and Acumenight like this.03-28-13 10:06 PMLike 2 -
Posted via CB10 from the BlackBerry Z10richardat likes this.03-28-13 10:50 PMLike 1 -
It may be time to get defensive: try to get the 10-20mil, conserve cash, and hope to expand on that in the next cycle.03-29-13 01:46 AMLike 0 - BlackBerry 10 smartphones don't need a subscription in the traditional sense but the number of users can be tracked via BlackBerry ID accounts. Eventually there will be no subscribers in terms of BIS and BES data plan fees but application and media content sale revenues will still contribute to their coffers. The reduction in traffic handled by BlackBerry's NOC should lead to cost efficiencies through hardware and staff reductions.
Posted via CB10 from the BlackBerry Z1003-29-13 01:52 AMLike 0 - Edit: I found confirmation that I'm right in a followup question. "Tim Long: Okay, so it�s not related to the millions, it�s related to to date shipments. Thorsten Gerhard Heins - CEO Yeah, kind of."
Basically it's very clear that was not meant to be strictly applied to the Q4 number of 1M shipped.richardat likes this.03-29-13 06:50 AMLike 1 - Your a complete moron!!! you don't think 1 million Z10 sales is impressive for not even a full month? The phone was for sale in less then 6 countries. The Z10 will be released in more then 100 countries in the next 1.5 months. Your a crackhead! and not the berry kind!!!
Keep that in mind
Sent from my GT-N7100 using Tapatalk 203-29-13 07:32 AMLike 2 -
Here's the only rationale conclusion on the 1M that were shipped: they've almost all sold by now. Does anyone seriously think they have 400K Z10s from that first month still sitting in inventory in warehouses in Canada and the UK?03-29-13 07:33 AMLike 0 - The numbers show BB has halted the bankruptcy train but has yet to prove they have a path to future profitability. I agree with the posters that we will need information from the coming three quarters to see if BB can once again become a growth story and a solid no. 3 player.
Most worrisome to me is the departure of Mike Lazaridis since he has been the visionary that was coming up with the ideas for the future. Such people are few and far between (witness Apple after the death of Steve Jobs). Replacing ML will be a challenge and if the visionary drive does leave the company, then we are left with good solid management which may indeed result in sensible financial paths being chosen which might eventually be licensing, sale of the hardware business,partnerships or sale of the company.
What is left is a company that would remain small but profitable making it an attractive takeover target. This will be good for shareholders who will make some money and very bad for the bears. My hope is that BB can grow again and evolve into a large tech company, but am definitely concerned at this time about its longer term prospects as an independent company.richardat likes this.03-29-13 08:09 AMLike 1 - Yes, it will be interesting though. They need to maintain those services for the developing nations, since NA has largely already abandoned BIS, there wont' be any loss there. The nice thing for BB is that they can still get their BIS revenue in the countries where z10 isn't an option. The downside is, the erosion there appears to have begun in earnest. One of the beauties of BIS was that it cost relatively little, which is why it is a nice cash cow for BB even though hardware sales make them more revenue.richardat likes this.03-29-13 08:21 AMLike 1
- Given the caveats with which they prefixed their answers to that series of questions, I would say it's quite clear they're "talking around something", and admitted it. They didn't have the exact number he wanted, and tried to give him an idea with a rough number they did have. In context it didn't seem to me to be a concern.
Here's the only rationale conclusion on the 1M that were shipped: they've almost all sold by now. Does anyone seriously think they have 400K Z10s from that first month still sitting in inventory in warehouses in Canada and the UK?03-29-13 08:28 AMLike 0 - Suddenly remembered one of the bearish commentes estimating only 35k sold when it was launched in UK / canada. What a laugh.
Posted via CB1003-29-13 08:38 AMLike 0 - Given the caveats with which they prefixed their answers to that series of questions, I would say it's quite clear they're "talking around something", and admitted it. They didn't have the exact number he wanted, and tried to give him an idea with a rough number they did have. In context it didn't seem to me to be a concern.
Here's the only rationale conclusion on the 1M that were shipped: they've almost all sold by now. Does anyone seriously think they have 400K Z10s from that first month still sitting in inventory in warehouses in Canada and the UK?
Sent from my LG-E970 using Tapatalk 203-29-13 08:51 AMLike 2 - Kill_9, I believe that 1M came after Q4.
This is an interesting post. I am not a finance genius but maybe someone can clarify for me why bbry shares closed in the red yesterday after such positive financial results. I would've imagined a very green day for the stock. Am I missing something?
Posted via CB1003-29-13 08:59 AMLike 0 - Your a complete moron!!! you don't think 1 million Z10 sales is impressive for not even a full month? The phone was for sale in less then 6 countries. The Z10 will be released in more then 100 countries in the next 1.5 months. Your a crackhead! and not the berry kind!!!03-29-13 09:36 AMLike 8
- That was for the first weekend. And it's apt. there's nothing in this sales report that gives the confidence that any more than 400K units were sold in a month in the UK/Canada market combined.03-29-13 09:45 AMLike 0
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This past quarter was a challenging one regardless. The world knew BlackBerry 10 was coming and they went into Christmas with a) old products; and b) the world knowing something knew was coming. I give them a bit of a pass on subscriber loss this quarter, but if we're still seeing shrinking in the quarter that ends in August (when Z10 and Q10 are fully rolled out), I'm worried.03-29-13 10:38 AMLike 0 - it's total horse puckey Wiki Cydia. He knows exactly how many were sold - just like Apple or Samsung do. The inability to track less than 1 million phones is a funny excuse to fall back on though :-)03-29-13 10:43 AMLike 0
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Regardless, this quarter and next will be the really telling ones. Full global availability of Z10 and full global availability of Q10 will be the real indicator of success or not of the platform.03-29-13 10:47 AMLike 0 - I though quite a few markets rolled out after the end of the quarter too. Regardless, not really firing on all pistons yet.
Regardless, this quarter and next will be the really telling ones. Full global availability of Z10 and full global availability of Q10 will be the real indicator of success or not of the platform.
I don't mean to sound pessimistic...
Sent from my GT-N7100 using Tapatalk 203-29-13 11:03 AMLike 0 -
There was nothing in the numbers that convinced either the bulls or bears to back off their position, hence the relatively unchanged price per share.
Apparently, BB/BBRY shares are still trading below book value (what the company could be sold for if broken up and sold for its parts) so at the very least, there is still good potential for a gain in share prices even if BB/BBRY remains in break-even territory. That does not mean that a couple of bad news items could not drive share price down to the $6 range again or that a couple of good news items could not drive it up to well above current prices. The recently released numbers just don't support a move either way.richardat likes this.03-29-13 11:09 AMLike 1 - Yes, it will be interesting though. They need to maintain those services for the developing nations, since NA has largely already abandoned BIS, there wont' be any loss there. The nice thing for BB is that they can still get their BIS revenue in the countries where z10 isn't an option. The downside is, the erosion there appears to have begun in earnest. One of the beauties of BIS was that it cost relatively little, which is why it is a nice cash cow for BB even though hardware sales make them more revenue.
Posted via CB10dusdal likes this.03-29-13 11:13 AMLike 1 -
Posted via CB1003-29-13 11:15 AMLike 0 -
PS. The fact that you seem to be trying to portray "3%" as "slow", does not discount my phrase "earnest erosion". First, as I just mentioned, I am not just looking at this quarter (I see that as increased evidence of the trend), second, this is something very important and serious to the company and thus the word "earnest".03-29-13 02:43 PMLike 0
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Earnings call: first numbers
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