[texazzpete]

Decent numbers based upon your personal speculation. :-) Let's wait for the global sales reports at the end of Q1.

We have a fair idea what was sold to customers (straight from the BB CEO).
I've made realistic predictions based on market demand and BB fanbase.

Is 30K units too optimistic for 2 weeks of sales in Italy, France, Germany, Spain?
30K is PESSIMISTIC for Nigeria and South Africa
If UAE and Middle East sell less than 50k as i've estimated, then the retailers there have been lying? Full 3 weeks of sales.
We heard reports from some strident Indian BB fanboys here that one retailer had almost sold out of his initial stock of 25000 Z10s. I estimated 30k units for India

Indonesia, thailand, phillipines...i estimated 80k. usually strong BB markets. If you dispute this, then we'll both agree that BB's high end only launch in those territories is failing.

So...my estimates are just estimates, but don't act like they are just totally unrealistic figures.

[Gnomesane]

Getting the activations is the easy part. Getting it as a percentage of shipments is trickier because the supply chain can vary so wildly on any given day or week. Especially with the Z10 which is new, getting promoted heavily and getting stocked and restocked and launching in new markets. The older devices are probably much more predictable in terms of run rate right now.

A good friend of mine and I are both on Rogers. I pre-ordered and picked up the phone on Feb. 5th. Showed it to him about a week later (he had a BB9700) and he was so impressed he got his company to order the Z10 from Rogers the next day. It was slightly under three weeks before he got the phone (Black model, like me, not White which seems to be more in demand?). Just fyi.

[RubberChicken76]

So...my estimates are just estimates, but don't act like they are just totally unrealistic figures.

I have lots of respect for your points but I think it's too difficult to estimate without knowing a lot more variables like distribution partners, outlets, run rates per store, stock ups etc.

You have made an estimate that could vary quite wildly in the end.

[jrlong]

I'm... satisfied. Surprised in some ways, disappointed in others.

Most significant for bulls: cash position and positive earnings per share = a stabilized company, despite that technically it should have been their worst quarter ever. Heins has done very well to make that happen, and kudos to every BlackBerry employee for hanging in there and delivering. If they can continue to execute, they will succeed.

Most significant for the bears: the consistent downward trend of subscribers, units sold, and revenues. For the next three months, that's all you'll hear and rightfully so. Trends are very, very powerful, and very, very honest. Obviously it is important, but I like how tangible of a problem it is to tackle now that BB10 is out.

Everything in the US is 10x greater than in Canada. If 500k of the 1M units shipped were in Canada, then expect numbers 5M for the US in Q1. It doesn't matter about marketing, advertising at AT&T, analysts or whatever. Intelligent, informed people are buying BlackBerry in Canada (fans or not), and there are 10x more of those people in the US. Q10 will be at least as big as the Z10, and if BB can deliver on Aristo and the other 3 devices that have been talked about in the product line by Christmas, I think they'll be shipping 10M per quarter easily by then. The reversal in the trends will be the tipping point, and that reversal has to show up by the end of Q3.

I think BB will have some great surprises for us in FY2014. The new product line, any updates to PB, BES10 and potential new service fees as a result, and hopefully a lot of innovation. I remain cautiously optimistic, and long BBRY. I also think I'm going to stop reading speculative analyst's reports.

[RubberChicken76]

Everything in the US is 10x greater than in Canada. If 500k of the 1M units shipped were in Canada, then expect numbers 5M for the US in Q1

One interesting point raised in the call was regarding the US which suggests it might not be this clear cut. When they broke down the revenue, Canada was 8% of BlackBerry's revenue, whereas the US was 14%. To be fair, Canada had the Z10 and the US didn't (Canadian sales were up 62% sequentially) but you do have to consider that the negative sentiment towards BlackBerry devices is higher in the U.S. than Canada and will prevent it from being a straight multiple. Not suggesting that Canadians are a brand loyal lot (we really aren't) but the problem seems more pronounced in the US.

[Dgree03]

So basically they are price gouging on their hardware.... nice...

[Gnomesane]

I'm... satisfied. Surprised in some ways, disappointed in others.
Q10 will be at least as big as the Z10, and if BB can deliver on Aristo and the other 3 devices that have been talked about in the product line by Christmas, I think they'll be shipping 10M per quarter easily by then. The reversal in the trends will be the tipping point, and that reversal has to show up by the end of Q3.

Good points, thanks. Yeah, Q3 is the one to watch to get a good picture I think. Just a note: I think Blackberry might only be releasing 4 devices in 2013 (Z10, Q10, 'Aristo' (mid range) and then Thor's referenced flagship phone for Xmas 2013. It might have been the sit down interview with Kevin and Thorsten, but I remember noting it. Anyone else? I actually think that's a good thing, I think 6 devices in one year is overreaching and risky. I'd rather see fewer devices and put more of a push on licensing BB10 as software to other potential hardware partners, whether in the lower end cellular market, or more exciting, 'other devices'. The possibilities...

[Gnomesane]

So basically they are price gouging on their hardware.... nice...

Not if you like the software that's installed on it. They had to pay their employees to write BB10, and beta test it. That's gotta be part of the price as well... Cheers.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

That doesn't make any sense to me. These are web-connected mobile computers, not toy cars. If we assume that items sold are activated almost immediately, sell-through data can be calculated. If it's they don't want to publish that data, that's fine, but then just say that. They might take a near-term hit, but it's a hit they can recover from as long as the sell-in numbers remain strong.

I'm sure "they" know exactly how many BB10 devices have been activated and has made contact with the BBM Network.

BBRY now has two TOTAL different platforms that they are supporting, really think they need to provide numbers for each platform so investors can see the results of each and have a better understanding of the future.

[texazzpete]

I have lots of respect for your points but I think it's too difficult to estimate without knowing a lot more variables like distribution partners, outlets, run rates per store, stock ups etc.

You have made an estimate that could vary quite wildly in the end.

You know, we've just had a conversation/argument about sales figures and stuff and it's been civil, good natured and logical.

Thank you

[peter9477]

Guys, lots of people above (everyone?) seems to be taking the "1M shipped in Q4" figure and multiplying by the "2/3 to 3/4 sold through" estimate, but so far I think everyone is missing a key point.

The shipped figure was Q4, obviously. We all got that.

The "2/3 to 3/4 sold through" estimate seems to be, however, for everything to date. Here's what Heins said (from the Seeking Alpha transcript): "So don’t take it really kind of like a clear number, but what we see roughly is that from what we have shipped into the market, two-thirds to three-quarters already have sold through. "

Although the question that elicited that answer was specifically about Q4 ("just wanted to get a sense of how much of the approximately 1 million actually sold through already") I really don't think Heins was restricting his answer to that.

As far as I'm concerned, for now, basically all of the 1M has sold through, and more beyond that in the month following.

His answer to Gus P's question also, to me, suggests clearly they had not started building up significant channel inventory again as of the end of Q4.

Edit: I found confirmation that I'm right in a followup question. "Tim Long: Okay, so it’s not related to the millions, it’s related to to date shipments. Thorsten Gerhard Heins - CEO Yeah, kind of."

Basically it's very clear that was not meant to be strictly applied to the Q4 number of 1M shipped.

That means you should NOT be saying they sold only 600K to 750K in Q4... they definitely did not mean to imply that.

[peter9477]

On drop of subscribers, I wonder if new Z10 users (excluding BES-enabled corporate phones) count as subscribers now that they do not use BIS? Anyone?

I said above that they do count now, meaning I thought they were already included in the latest subscriber numbers (from the Q4 report we just got).

I'm no longer sure. Here's CFO Brian B's answer to a question about that: "Sure, so on the change in our definition of subscriber, when we made that change, there was no impact on the numbers we were reporting. And this quarter, in our numbers, we would be including the BB10 subscribers as well." (Quoted from the Seeking Alpha transcript.)

Now I have no idea what's true, because I don't know what "this quarter" refers to. I think his first sentence refers to the Q3 report, and his second sentence refers to this one for Q4, but both of those might be shifted a quarter in which case it would mean we've heard no subscriber numbers that include BB10 yet.

Anyone know for sure?

[RubberChicken76]

You know, we've just had a conversation/argument about sales figures and stuff and it's been civil, good natured and logical.

Thank you

Shocking! :-) You are actually one of my favorite people to chat with on the board, even though it may not seem like it. (Even if we don't always agree)

[ccbs]

What I read is that they lost subscribers faster than they could convert them into BB10 platform users. Is this a concern?
They gained 55% of 1million from other platforms to BB10; in the meantime they lost/failed to convert about 3~4 millions to other platforms.

[lobbyintx]

i expect subscriber #s to drop since there is no BIS with bb10. maybe i am wrong on this......

[peter9477]

What I read is that they lost subscribers faster than they could convert them into BB10 platform users. Is this a concern

Not really, since the losses were over the whole quarter and world, whereas the gains with BB10 were in a handful of countries, over periods ranging from a few days to about a month.

Next quarter's numbers will actually mean something, but I don't see much in these Q4 sub numbers except cheap shots for the bears.

[Zarpan]

Nigeria + South Africa probably accounted for more than 30000 units.
Indonesia, Thailand, Philipines perhaps 80000 units
UAE and other middle east countries? Perhaps 50000 units?
India? Maybe 30000 units?
Let's assume Europe (excluding UK) accounted for 30000 units.


Assuming 700k BB10 phones actually sold through to consumers, that means in around one month of sales in strong markets like the UK and Canada...only around 450k Z10s were sold.


Decent numbers, but not really impressive IMHO. At least when you consider the rhetoric...and the euphoric posts of record numbers after the launch in those two territories.

I think your estimates are pretty reasonable for the most part. UAE and other Middle East countries probably sold a lot more since one news article said that a distributor there had sold nearly 300,000 units in 6 weeks. On the other hand, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines - think the launch date there was after the cutoff period.

So in the end, 450k might not be a bad estimate for the UK and Canada. The two countries probably sold 2.8 million smartphones during that time, so about a 16% market share during that time. In comparison, the iPhone 5 probably did around 20-25% market share for those countries over a longer (3 month) span. On the other hand, BlackBerry's market share was down to 5-6% in those countries prior to the Z10 launch. So not an iPhone level success, but I'd say a pretty good starting point given BlackBerry's relative market position.

[Zarpan]

What I read is that they lost subscribers faster than they could convert them into BB10 platform users. Is this a concern?
They gained 55% of 1million from other platforms to BB10; in the meantime they lost/failed to convert about 3~4 millions to other platforms.

We'll have a better idea next quarter.

BB10 was only available to less than 20% of BlackBerry subscribers for more than two weeks prior to the end of quarter. If you do the calculations, in the countries where it was available, BlackBerry must have been gaining subs post launch.

About 4-5% of subs turn over (buy a new phone) each month.

So looking at the countries where sales started a couple weeks prior to the end of quarter.
UK - 4 million subs - 1 month = 180k turn over
Canada - 3 million subs - 0.85 months = 115k turn over
UAE - 2 million subs - 0.7 months = 65k turn over
France - 2.4 million subs - 0.55 months = 60k turn over
Saudi Arabia - 3.5 million subs - 0.5 months = 80k turn over

So we'd estimate that 500k BlackBerry subs from those countries were looking for phones during the quarter. I'd estimate that 600k-650k Z10s were sold to people from those countries, meaning net subscriber gain would be 100k-150k (or a sub replacement rate of 120-130%). That also excludes any BB7 sales - which would probably be pretty low - but could add another 50k-100k units - even if there was a 75% dropoff in BB7 sales from the previous month.

.

[richardat]

"Shipped" 1 million z10's, not "sold"...big difference.

Sent from my LG-E970 using Tapatalk 2

Quite right. My "source" said "sold", but I too wondered that, I wasn't able to confirm it before I had other matters to attend to!

[richardat]

Definitely found it interesting.

Surprises:
- They kept cash flat, despite the launch. I thought it would drop meaningfully to $2.2 billion or so, but it stayed around $2.9 billion.
?

It is interesting - I assumed cost cutting, and that has now been confirmed. This morning, just before the numbers, I was thinking about that, and wondering how much it would drop. I posted an article a little while back where Heins boasted that the cast would be "strong". This made me think it might not be down much, and I was thinking about how I felt about that. I actually am a little disappointed - I think they should have blown out tons of cash in one incredible spectacle of a launch. This overall is very defensive and managed to me, I think they want to "survive" BB10, and hope for better fortunes later.

That doesn't make any sense to me. These are web-connected mobile computers, not toy cars. If we assume that items sold are activated almost immediately, sell-through data can be calculated. If it's they don't want to publish that data, that's fine, but then just say that. They might take a near-term hit, but it's a hit they can recover from as long as the sell-in numbers remain strong.

it's total horse puckey Wiki Cydia. He knows exactly how many were sold - just like Apple or Samsung do. The inability to track less than 1 million phones is a funny excuse to fall back on though :-)

[bbfarmboy2008]

Your a complete moron!!! you don't think 1 million Z10 sales is impressive for not even a full month? The phone was for sale in less then 6 countries. The Z10 will be released in more then 100 countries in the next 1.5 months. Your a crackhead! and not the berry kind!!!

[richardat]

You said that anything less than 50m z10 would be a failure that results in the death of BBRY. I am too busy to pull the thread but it exists and it was recent.

Posted via CB10

OH....so now it's not "profitability". You know what a troll often does? Take somebody's message, misrepresent it, take it out of context, be willing to put the time in to accuse the person of it, but then, claim they're "too busy" to actually find out what was said, and address it honestly.

This is actually the 2nd time I've noticed sometime claim something erroneous about what I said in that thread, I left it without checking follow-ups, and I probably should go back and see.....but it seemed a waste of time. Won't pollute this thread further, but for those who didnt' see that thread, in broad terms my message was:

-20 mil. may well be enough for profitability (DOH....a1s23f4g5 troll!!!), but it isn't enough to be a strong #3. It will be enough to survive the cycle. Meanwhile, you've lost your best chance to make a huge turnaround, in people's minds. You may also be further behind in terms of apps, support, and tech. You are jumping back in race, in which competitors spend more money on R & D than your entire revenue. If after years of development, you weren't able to shock the industry with you new product, can you do so while on the run with the big boys? It's certainly possible, but seems less likely.

-to be a "strong #3", you need numbers more like 50 million - why? Because 1 and 2 will be selling 150mil. plus. 50 mil. is nowhere close obviously, but enough to 1.seperate from rest of pack (assuming they stay constant), 2.make enough impact so that the industry and developers consider you one of the big players, and support you accordingly - very important

-don't reach that strong #3, and BB as we knew it is over. (been saying this for....over a year now) Survive or not, become even distant #3 or not, they will effectively be marginalized to a small niche player, and will not be regaining any semblance of the former glory or status that once was.

I stand by this, but it is complicated and requires context and elaboration. I am deeply disappointed that some in that thread, and still, yell things like: he thinks they need 50mil to profit!! Stupid ____!!!! Doesn't know anything!!!

Summary over, sorry for the tangent everyone else.

[xBURK]

All in all, not a bad report. Wouldn't matter how good the outcome was, people would complain about it. Come on, the headline WILL NOT be "BlackBerry's Dead". That was the first and most important hurdle to overcome. BlackBerry has a level ground to work from now. This deserves to be celebrated no matter how you look at it. If they can just sell like he-ll in the States, things can only get better and better.

Posted via CB10

[a1s2d3f4g5]

Richardat. Thanks for pulling that. You are right it is not the same thing that I said. But the concept is similar so you could see how I would make that mistake, especially considering how long and pessimistic the post was.

Posted via CB10

[superdirt]

What I read is that they lost subscribers faster than they could convert them into BB10 platform users. Is this a concern?
They gained 55% of 1million from other platforms to BB10; in the meantime they lost/failed to convert about 3~4 millions to other platforms.

Most of Q4 a time when the Z10 was not released. Losses are not unexpected if you consider that BlackBerry didn't release phones for most of last year.

Posted via CB10