1. BBNation's Avatar
    I thought the upcoming earning report with limited BB10 sales included deserves it's own thread.
    So please your thoughts and discussions points:

    - Stock price during the ER
    - Your earning expectations and guesses
    - Your position of during this week before ER and during the ER
    - Past BB earning calls/experience
    - Bull or bear case, let's hear both
    - Things to look for in this ER

    Here is my thoughts:
    - BB has reported better than expected earnings in last 2 quarters.
    - The cash position increased better than expected.
    - The cost cutting was better than expected
    - Both earnings were beaten up by shorts by negative, baseless questions/reports
    - This upcoming ER will be much better than expected
    - close to 1 mil z10 sales and around 5 min BB7 devices which brought BIS fees
    - millions of US and developing nations still pay BIS/BES fees to BB will increase cash position to 2.5 billion
    - most US marketing cost will not be in this earning
    - BB managing bb7 and PB inventory much better than most think..
    - TH's confidence level suggest that it will be good earning and since BB scheduled the ER before the market. Usually it's after market.
    - Since Z10 started making in december most BB10 development cost was included in previous ER.
    - UK BB7 xmas including PBs sale was good. We all know z10 sales..

    Anyway, share your thoughts...thx
    03-24-13 11:41 PM
  2. weekengyip's Avatar
    I believe the investment community will rather learn of the sales of the new BB10 devices as most forecasted that BBRY will likely bleed again this quarter. A region of 1 to 1.5 million sales from the Z10 device could trigger a rebound in share px.
    03-24-13 11:49 PM
  3. angrybear123's Avatar
    My position: Long, covered with Apr05 puts @ 14.

    My thoughts
    Q4 earnings: Irrelevant.
    - If higher than expected
    Bull Case: "See. This will carry through to Q1."
    Bear Case: "Yes, but this has sold well in Canada and UK. We can see sales there slow, and the US has been a disaster."

    - If Lower than expected:
    Bull Case: "No big deal. Only Z10, only for one month, only in some markets. Q1 matters more."
    Bear Case: "DOA! DOA! DOA! How can it compete with Android and iPhone? DOA! Too little too late! DOA! Too little too late!" etc.

    Summary: Basically no change in overall sentiment. Everyone remains in whatever corner they came in.

    Q1 Guidance: ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL.

    My scenarios for Q1 guidance, in order of decreasing likelihood
    Scenario 1: No guidance given
    - little change to stock, implied vol on options that expire pre-Q1 get crushed
    Scenario 2: No quantitative guidance given, Thor talks about how wonderful sales will be
    - some upgrades come in, stock bumps higher marginally. 17? Stock bumps up for a few days as some shorts start to flee, slowly.
    Scenario 3: No quantitative guidance given, Thor talks about how bad sales are. Hedges with talk about how the Q10 will save them.
    - Heading down. Back to 11ish.
    Scenario 4: Quantitative guidance given
    - likely only given if guidance is good, and won't even include Q10! Shorts get massacred. Crackberry celebrates. Upgrades pour in.

    If you look at the order I put my scenarios in, I think higher probability we are going up, but I don't think this is going to be a major major event. I'm waiting for Q1, that will be fireworks. This Q, not so much, imo.
    Shanerredflag likes this.
    03-26-13 08:28 PM
  4. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    If you look at the order I put my scenarios in, I think higher probability we are going up, but I don't think this is going to be a major major event. I'm waiting for Q1, that will be fireworks. This Q, not so much, imo.
    Agree 100%... my heart wants blood for all the stress of 8% swings but in the end you nailed this.

    Cheers
    03-26-13 08:39 PM
  5. Zarpan's Avatar
    I think one surprise during earnings will be the number of BB7 devices sold and shipped. Most BB7 sales are to emerging markets now, and the percentage of those consumers who could afford the Z10 is relatively low compared to Europe and North America and other wealthy markets. I believe that holiday sales of BlackBerry were likely to be strong in many of those emerging markets.

    My prediction:

    $3.2 billion in revenue

    7 million BB7 shipped, 7.7 million BB7 sold.
    1.1 million BB10 shipped, 800k BB10 sold

    EPS: Loss of 16 cents.

    BB7 sales might hurt short-term earnings a little, but make up for it by maintaining service revenue over the long run.
    03-27-13 01:32 AM
  6. EvanRitch's Avatar
    I'm going to predict a draw or just slightly better but the stock will drop abit but not alot.
    03-27-13 05:47 AM
  7. EvanRitch's Avatar
    I'm super excited to see the stock tomorrow good or bad this is exciting! Even if it does poorly I'm still Bullish and long
    03-27-13 05:59 AM
  8. blacknap's Avatar
    T minus 23 hours and counting...

    The day a lot of people on this forum have been looking forward to for a long while.

    Some general thoughts.

    The release of financial numbers is another data point that market participants both for and against will digest and serve for another volatile trading day. Keep in mind this stock has been exceptionally volatile even for a high beta stock since the last earnings release, often moving in 8-10% daily swings on opinions, rumors, and sentiment. The actual numbers that get released will be just another excuse to ramp the stock up or drive it down. While this is a boon to day traders who need the volatile securities, it can also serve to cause even the most long term of investors to question his investment thesis on a daily basis. Tomorrow's release will at least have some meat in it which the faithful can fall back on when the volatility returns in the days and weeks ahead. What the street is looking for is some evidence that BBRY isnt in some wind down scenario where subscribers continue to bleed away and the introduction of BB10 is just delaying the inevitable. Analysts will be looking for shipments of BB10 and anything above a million will be seen as a huge positive. They will also be looking for subscriber numbers and whether last quarters decline starts to accelerate. Anything below 77 million would be received very poorly and if they can maintain 78-79 million I think they will hold off on the "BBRY demise imminent" headlines. Analysts would love if the company provided some hard guidance going forward but Im not sure the company will do that except in broad general terms. I would be very surprised if BBRY came out and suggested they were looking at shipping X number of bb10 devices in any time period going forward. They will be very keen to learn of any delays in the q10 launch, as well as some indication of enterprise pickup in the z10 thus far. The only other major concern will be the revenue stream from the services side and how significant it is forecast to be over the next 4 quarters. Hopefully TH can provide something a little more concrete then the last call on this point as it was his lack of detail on this issue that caused the stock to drop 20% in less than 10 minutes in after hours trading. There are other things analysts will be looking for (cash burn, potential partnerships, discussions of introducing lower end bb10 devices this year) but they will not be seen as significant drivers as the other points mentioned earlier.

    Keep in mind BBRY has beat expectations for the last 2 quarters and still the stock slid down post release. And that was during a period of declining/stable share price action over the previous 3 months. The stock has moved up significantly since December so a lot of investors expect the numbers to be at least decent if not better than that. What would REALLY move the stock is any combination of the following:

    1. Shipments of 1.5 mm in the Feb quarter
    2. Any significant progress on the strategic review vis a vis licensing or partnerships
    3. An increase in the cash position in spite of the costs associated with the launch
    4 a Q10 release date in the current quarter for the US
    5. Guidance for current year shows positive earnings
    6. Any further announcements of significant app developers climbing on board (Instagram ,netflix, pandora, etc) I know its a long shot but hey, one can dream.
    7 Service revenue declines going forward are projected to decline at a much slower rate than feared by analysts. A lot of this will revolve around the BES10 server and associated revenue streams that arent even slated to come out until the second quarter.
    8 Indications that sales at AT&T are running ahead of plan in spite of the poor visibility associated with last week's launch. Analysts will expect that BBRY will certainly sell phones to enterprise users. The real trick is to see if they can claw back some US market share on the consumer side. Given that we are barely a week into a single carrier launch in the US, I dont expect to see this but If any data can be presented that shows evidence of this, the stock could move and move dramatically.

    The stock has a significant short position and the bears wont give up easily, so be prepared for some volatility even if the numbers are "great".
    Shanerredflag and BBNation like this.
    03-27-13 07:26 AM
  9. Gerard Fraser's Avatar
    Here is all you need to know.

    Copy and paste from another thread

    Great day for BlackBerry.Today BlackBerry put everyone at ease.Stock is seeing some huge jumps.

    Quick review of today's earnings report.
    2.3 Million Z-10 sold in February.
    They will post a profit of 12 million.
    3.1 Billion in cash.
    New playbook and new phones coming soon.Q10 release is 3 weeks away.
    Update playbooks to 10.021.
    New companies adopting BES 10 with huge revenue's from fees from all platforms.

    All looks good enough for me.No doom and gloom here.
    03-27-13 04:00 PM
  10. Bbnivende's Avatar
    I think one surprise during earnings will be the number of BB7 devices sold and shipped. Most BB7 sales are to emerging markets now, and the percentage of those consumers who could afford the Z10 is relatively low compared to Europe and North America and other wealthy markets. I believe that holiday sales of BlackBerry were likely to be strong in many of those emerging markets.

    My prediction:

    $3.2 billion in revenue

    7 million BB7 shipped, 7.7 million BB7 sold.
    1.1 million BB10 shipped, 800k BB10 sold

    EPS: Loss of 16 cents.

    BB7 sales might hurt short-term earnings a little, but make up for it by maintaining service revenue over the long run.
    I couldn't find much to suggest that BB7 sales were stronger during this last Q except in Britain where they dropped the price of the 9320 to almost stocking stuffer levels. Sales of the premium devices like the 9900 etc seems to have been at a standstill. I would be very pleasantly surprised though if your post turns out true.
    03-27-13 07:44 PM
  11. Zarpan's Avatar
    My prediction:

    $3.2 billion in revenue

    7 million BB7 shipped, 7.7 million BB7 sold.
    1.1 million BB10 shipped, 800k BB10 sold

    EPS: Loss of 16 cents.

    BB7 sales might hurt short-term earnings a little, but make up for it by maintaining service revenue over the long run.
    Well, EPS was way off in a good way. Other than that, the sold estimate was pretty decent. I was surprised by the amount of channel inventory remaining, but apparently that should not be an issue for Q1.

    If shipments are much closer to sell through in Q1 - we'll probably see some nice upside to revenues and perhaps to EPS.
    03-28-13 03:18 PM
  12. the_sleuth's Avatar
    Well ladies and gents, ignore the analysts. Their analysis reports are not worthy to cover public toilet seats. None of them have ever run a global company. Just more talking heads spewing white noise.

    All you have to read is the glowing reviews and please spread the positive buzz:

    Amazon.com Top Rated: The best in Cell Phones With Service Plans based on Amazon customer reviews

    Year 2013, will be remembered as the year of BlackBerry.

    And Q10 will be served fresh next month to all BlackBerry aficionados. Yes, Q10 will be this summer's blockbuster in sales!
    Last edited by the_sleuth; 03-29-13 at 03:08 PM.
    03-28-13 07:07 PM
  13. Sqoon's Avatar
    Amazon has like a dozen different web searches that has different results. The most important is the top phones and BlackBerry is number eight...

    Posted via CB10
    Shanerredflag likes this.
    03-28-13 11:47 PM

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