10-31-13 03:26 PM
48 12
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  1. BBNation's Avatar
    As we all heard in last few weeks there are multiple players shown interest in BB. Nothing confirmed or concrete at this point. Based on that do we think BOD will reject PW offer of $9 just because they are damm sure that there will be another higer bidder or based on their talks so far. By November 4th BOD either needs to tell PW, Sorry too low or accept it or possible extend the dead line. We know that BOD wants to sell ASAP so further damage and law suites can be prevented.
    Share your thoughts, options as less than week left on this.
    10-29-13 04:18 PM
  2. zee3p0's Avatar
    I think they have already accepted it, so as long as fairfax makes good it will go through. They can still accept further offers until the money changes hands, the break fee will just be higher. So yes i think that the board will take the offer if it becomes definitive.

    Posted via CB10
    silversun10 likes this.
    10-29-13 04:34 PM
  3. jake simmons3's Avatar
    I think they have already accepted it, so as long as fairfax makes good it will go through. They can still accept further offers until the money changes hands, the break fee will just be higher. So yes i think that the board will take the offer if it becomes definitive.

    Posted via CB10
    Who cares about the board the offer wont be passed by the shareholders
    ibpluto and Just Me like this.
    10-29-13 04:51 PM
  4. playbookster's Avatar
    Who cares about the board the offer wont be passed by the shareholders
    If no other offer presents itself what choice do shareholders have? Either take 9 or lose everything when BlackBerry closes shop.

    Posted from my Z10
    10-29-13 07:05 PM
  5. rim4ever's Avatar
    Who cares about the board the offer wont be passed by the shareholders
    Exactly. People seem to forget that shareholders are the rightful owner of the company. The entire board needs to go if the $9 offer is approved by the board but voted down by shareholders.
    10-29-13 07:06 PM
  6. heymaggie's Avatar
    Don't forget the hemorrhaging of customers that occurs when you have no idea what your future holds. How long can this company afford to keep this auction going? Some of these potential buyers are simply expecting that the $9 offer will fall through and waiting for Blackberry to get cheaper before picking it up for a lot less.
    10-29-13 07:10 PM
  7. co4nd's Avatar
    Who cares about the board the offer wont be passed by the shareholders
    Then the shareholders wii lose money when it's sold for scraps
    10-29-13 07:22 PM
  8. BBNation's Avatar
    I understand shareholders own the company but would not shareholders take $9 if SP falls further down after all this drama or because of fear of that no other offer may be on the table. Either take $9 for now wait till someone else takes it for $6. Remember BB does not want to drag this long as it is hurting the brand, customers, sales, further write downs, etc. The BOD does not want to face share holders, law suites as we have seen with the previous earning.
    It will be interesting to know what happens next week. If FB met last week how long it will take them to get all paperwork, legal stuff worked out before FB or anyone else can actually firm offer.
    Next few days we will see more rumours, news, SP spikes,..crazy
    10-29-13 07:24 PM
  9. jh07's Avatar
    They already accepted it. Simple as that.

    Posted via CB10
    10-29-13 07:31 PM
  10. BBNation's Avatar
    They already accepted it. Simple as that.

    Posted via CB10
    It is true that they they accepted it if they can not find any buyers. If there is a interest and someone else offering more, lets say $11 why would they accept PW offer. Just pay .30/share to PW and break the deal still getting more than $1.50/share.
    10-29-13 07:39 PM
  11. rizdragon's Avatar
    a bird in hand is better than two in the bushes...
    10-29-13 07:54 PM
  12. cbvinh's Avatar
    Because the stock dropped below $9/share, there are probably a lot of short-term speculators who bought in to cash in on the < $1/share gain. They'll vote to go with the Fairfax offer. On the other hand, 59% of the stock is held by institutions and mutual funds, which might refuse the offer and maybe force the board to actually do something to sell product instead of setting up shop for a sale (settling lawsuits, laying off employees, lack of advertising, etc.).

    - BlackBerry, with BB10 10.2.x, is finally in a position to gain Android 4.2.x apps. Apps are still dependent on developers, but porting will be less of a chore.
    - With the security scandal and their defacto reputation for security (however boring), means enterprise will look at them again, especially knowing that world governments are deploying the latest BlackBerry's.
    - BBM has brought attention from consumers. Consumers probably won't buy up BB10 devices, but if BlackBerry can monetize BBM, that's as much justification for profitability as Instagram, Twitter, Whatsapp, Viber, etc. has for potential future profits. The big gain from the BBM roll out is that consumers know BlackBerry isn't dead.
    10-29-13 08:01 PM
  13. nuldahtal's Avatar
    I expect that we will see an extension of that delay so BlackBerry can take more time to fund a suitable acquirer. I always thought that the so called offer was made only the keep the stock at a minimum price while they try to find a way out. Don't forget that watsa owes 10% of BB and if they were to sell even one share, the stock would plunge. And Fairfax knows BlackBerry from inside out...
    Problem is with that stupid gvt rule about foreing investment and control. They will oppose any bid from a non Canadian company and would take forever to do so.. letting BlackBerry erode to the core with time. They had hard time selling device before, imagine now... I couldn't find a single z30 in a shopping mall in Montreal .. they just don't have them.
    10-29-13 08:09 PM
  14. rebroker2009's Avatar
    Pw can't get the financing

    Q10 running10.2.1.641 leak and loving it!
    10-29-13 08:11 PM
  15. jh07's Avatar
    It is true that they they accepted it if they can not find any buyers. If there is a interest and someone else offering more, lets say $11 why would they accept PW offer. Just pay .30/share to PW and break the deal still getting more than $1.50/share.
    Oh, I don't know. I have no idea if PW decides in November to go through with the purchase if BlackBerry can back out. I would sure hope if they got a better offer that they would take it. I myself would like it to go at about $9.35 to brake even on the little amount of shares I have.

    Posted via CB10
    10-29-13 08:21 PM
  16. zee3p0's Avatar
    I think you are all over estimating the shareholders vote. Whatever percentage they need will be already taken up by black pools of trading since tons of stock was sold off under the 9 dollar price. The major shareholders will be involved in the deal and those that aren't will sell to the ones that want the votes. The shareholder vote will pass no problem.

    Posted via CB10
    10-29-13 09:04 PM
  17. GTiLeo's Avatar
    Who cares about the board the offer wont be passed by the shareholders
    not if there is alot of interest
    10-29-13 09:20 PM
  18. BBNation's Avatar
    It takes weeks and months to figure out and finalize the deal which required lawyers, money agreement. Etc
    So it could be shorts trapping longs by speculative rumors as they have done in the past. Currently shorts may be spreading rumors so new longs go for it and then come November we found no real offer, sp crash and shorts cover. Now the real bidders come and take BlackBerry for 5 to 6 bucks.
    The low volume suggests manipulation is temporary halted unit November. Avg volume of over 25 Mil to now less than unless takeover rumor comes out. Not even bull press releases moving the stock.

    Posted via CB10
    m1a1mg likes this.
    10-29-13 11:15 PM
  19. dalinxz's Avatar
    Not true at all look at the white horizontal bars on the right side, that is where the value is (volume weighted distribution) most of the people in at 7-9 are day traders and market makers. Thanks majority are nowhere near here, a $9 offer would likely be rejected, especially when 52% are institutions holding the stock with much higher costs than even Watsa himself.

    Value sits between 10.75-17 as of today, that was a chart from a few days ago when value sat between 10.92-17

    Don't follow price, follow value.


    Do you think BOD will reject  PW offer-2del3.png

    Posted via CB10
    10-30-13 12:40 AM
  20. heymaggie's Avatar
    Do professional investors, including institutional investors, consider their acquisition price when they consider an offer to sell? I would think that the valuation of a stock really shouldn't depend on what you acquired it for. Professional investors should be more immune to this irrational thinking than casual investors.
    OMGitworks likes this.
    10-30-13 12:44 AM
  21. BBNation's Avatar
    Not true at all look at the white horizontal bars on the right side, that is where the value is (volume weighted distribution) most of the people in at 7-9 are day traders and market makers. Thanks majority are nowhere near here, a $9 offer would likely be rejected, especially when 52% are institutions holding the stock with much higher costs than even Watsa himself.

    Value sits between 10.75-17 as of today, that was a chart from a few days ago when value sat between 10.92-17

    Don't follow price, follow value.



    Posted via CB10
    I agree with you that this stock has been hijacked by day traders and shorts and big longs did not sell in previous crashes. Only retailers left and now many bought recently are some dark pools and quick day traders. I also agree with your chart above but if this was the case then why the HELL BOD would agree and accept $9 PW offer as no one knows value more than BOD and mgmt.
    How do you explain the PW offer acceptance by BOD ? Why would they agree with breakup fees with PW ?
    10-30-13 12:48 AM
  22. dalinxz's Avatar
    Because they may have colluded for him to come up with a deal they knew wouldn't be accepted even if it went through. The penalty recovers Prem Watsa's loss in the event that someone else does come in with a better offer. And while all this buyout noise occurs, BBRY can proceed with their execution of their strategy and there's a floor and ceiling on the stock price. All whilst ridding the day traders from the stock, which it has, volume has been pathetic the last few weeks. Literally within 5 cent ranges. This is merely my hypothesis, but it is quite logical. Now that BBM is out the brand awareness is there. Another theory would be that they're trying to steal the company from the shareholders, and they'll convert the biggest players/institutions into the deal as bondholders. However I feel that the deal will not go through and this won't happen if the offer on the table is only $9

    Posted via CB10
    10-30-13 01:03 AM
  23. heymaggie's Avatar
    If the WSJ had said that any other company had met with Facebook about an acquisition, the stock would have jumped at least 15%. The market is either saying that they don't believe Facebook is interested or that the premium wouldn't be that high because there is no bidding war. The fact that this stock has been so stable over the past several weeks, despite such uncertainty, means that the market thinks that $9 is the price whether or not the Fairfax deal goes through.

    Anyone who really thinks it's more has certainly had a chance to make a killing on this stock but it doesn't look like anyone is biting.
    Troy Tiscareno likes this.
    10-30-13 02:00 AM
  24. BBNation's Avatar
    And shorts are damm sure that they will cover easy as everyone will well around 9 if pw offers go through or cover at less if it fails

    Posted via CB10
    10-30-13 02:08 AM
  25. dalinxz's Avatar
    That's not true either, the price has to go above the value area to create actual volume. The reason trading has been so flat and isn't going anywhere is because PW price ceiling of $9 worries investors. Why would I go into a stock at let's call it $8 to make a $1 profit while risking $8 or for the sake of argument assuming the company is worth $6 as cash ($2 downside) the risk reward trade-off doesn't exist. Also why. When there are so many other stocks in an up market would I invest for such a small return.

    With respect to other long term holders. Either they have no more money to add, or they've reached their maximum exposure for the particular security. As for sellers, there aren't many shares to borrow as short interest is high, and shares are hard to borrow. In addition, it would be suicide to attempt to short at these levels. What is the downside for the shorts (their profit) and what is the possible upside (completely unknown) therfore you have weak trading.

    As for daily movement, it moves because market makers trade the stock to cteate add liquidity and make a bit, day traders look to scalp. Pick up in the morning and dump in the afternoon, and the algo traders trade for minute movements. So all the volume is coming from there, and it has been very low. The real shareholders aren't at $9, they're between that 10.92-17 value area. Right now it's just a matter of waiting it out.

    Good luck to all. Disclosure: I'm long

    Posted via CB10
    jxnb and Reed Richards like this.
    10-30-13 02:20 AM
48 12

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