[zee3p0]

I agree with that analysis.

Posted via CB10

[m1a1mg]

If the WSJ had said that any other company had met with Facebook about an acquisition, the stock would have jumped at least 15%. The market is either saying that they don't believe Facebook is interested or that the premium wouldn't be that high because there is no bidding war. The fact that this stock has been so stable over the past several weeks, despite such uncertainty, means that the market thinks that $9 is the price whether or not the Fairfax deal goes through.

Anyone who really thinks it's more has certainly had a chance to make a killing on this stock but it doesn't look like anyone is biting.

The reason it doesn't go up 15% is that real, non-emotional investors, read the second paragraph. The one that states that BBRY approached FB, not the other way round. Just like Google, Cisco, SAP.

I also don't agree with the analysis that you can't make money on this. If I buy a share of stock guaranteed to make a dollar per share in a very short term, I'd take it. If the offer doesn't go through,the stock price will tank. That's where the non-emotional investors are.

[OMGitworks]

Not true at all look at the white horizontal bars on the right side, that is where the value is (volume weighted distribution) most of the people in at 7-9 are day traders and market makers. Thanks majority are nowhere near here, a $9 offer would likely be rejected, especially when 52% are institutions holding the stock with much higher costs than even Watsa himself.

Value sits between 10.75-17 as of today, that was a chart from a few days ago when value sat between 10.92-17

Don't follow price, follow value.


Attachment 215556

Posted via CB10

"Don't follow price, follow value" is a quote that can get you killed in the stock market. Institutions know how to manage losing trades. IT DOES NOT MATTER WHAT THEY GOT IN AT NOW, IT MATTERS WHAT THEY CAN GET OUT AT. If it means getting out at 9 and not 6 or 7 they will vote and get out. If they think they will ultimately get more than 9 they will vote against it, but it doesn't matter what they got in at, they know they will lose money so they will manage the trade and get out. Do you really think the market has BBRY wrongly valued to the tune of 75-100%? Do you really think they have never lost money on a trade or sold something at a loss?

[danprown]

ali1t, I agree mostly with your analysis, but look at the short selling sample:
Interactive Charts
I do not thing shares are hard to borrow... I think the $9 LOI established a nice ceiling for short sellers which is not often the case when shorting.

Otherwise, I do not think much analysis has been given to the institutional ownership of the shares. These institutions are largely responsible for the state BBRY has been in. They have voted in for years ridiculous figureheads for board members and all was well and dandy when Jim and Mike had the reigns and there was no competition, but as soon as the Verizon Storm fiasco came to head, these institutions had to take action to protect their investment. We learned from the Globe and Mail article that it appears there have been at least three factions within -- Jim B, Mike L, and apparently Thorsten's group -- for quite some time, with all sorts of plans in disarray, and what do we have -- nary a peep from these "institutional" investors.
So I think they will be the first to jump on the $9 offer since it is the brainchild of their own board members.

As to becoming bondholders in some sort of "collusion" I wonder why go through all these steps if they already have de facto control of the company and believe in Prem and his vision. They turfed out Jim B, didn't they.

[dalinxz]

Yes I do believe the market has BBRY valued completely irrationally.

Posted via CB10

[OMGitworks]

Yes I do believe the market has BBRY valued completely irrationally.

Posted via CB10

Fair enough, good luck on your long position. I thought about buying 25 Jan 9 call contracts at around 40 per contract as a bet on BBRY, but am sitting tight.

[dalinxz]

I think the best risk reward options are the 1.80ish Jan 2015 $7 strikes , I'd buy more but past losses have cut me out, and I have no more room to add exposure. However, if I did, that's what I'd go for.

Posted via CB10

[EchoTango]

I have two totally diverse thoughts on the situation.

I'm thinking the $9 was a "stalking horse" bid and that PW is "helping" BBerry to get the real value out of the company. Any bidder now has to exceed $9 in order to be even considered. Unfortunately, $9 is below the value of it's assets, given that half of this number represents the cash on-hand.

The other thought is that PW has coluded with the BOD to sell the company to him at a fire-sale price. I'm very skeptical that this bid would get by the shareholders, as I've got to believe the bulk of the major positions are under water, including PW's.

[Just Me]

Who cares about the board the offer wont be passed by the shareholders

That's a bold statement, unfounded but bold.

Posted via CB10

[fin2007]

I have two totally diverse thoughts on the situation.

I'm thinking the $9 was a "stalking horse" bid and that PW is "helping" BBerry to get the real value out of the company. Any bidder now has to exceed $9 in order to be even considered. Unfortunately, $9 is below the value of it's assets, given that half of this number represents the cash on-hand.

The other thought is that PW has coluded with the BOD to sell the company to him at a fire-sale price. I'm very skeptical that this bid would get by the shareholders, as I've got to believe the bulk of the major positions are under water, including PW's.

The problem is nobody wants to buy BBRY as a whole since big guys already owns their own hardware unit and are losing big bucks with their own hardware unit.

You just do not see how any big players want bbry's hardware unit.

It is a bad timing for BBRY now.

[BBNation]

May be BlackBerry should have got 20s last year when amazon and others were knocking the door

Posted via CB10

[unwanted content]

As we all heard in last few weeks there are multiple players shown interest in BB. Nothing confirmed or concrete at this point. Based on that do we think BOD will reject PW offer of $9 just because they are damm sure that there will be another higer bidder or based on their talks so far. By November 4th BOD either needs to tell PW, Sorry too low or accept it or possible extend the dead line. We know that BOD wants to sell ASAP so further damage and law suites can be prevented.
Share your thoughts, options as less than week left on this.

If anything, they are damn sure there wont be a better offer. Nothing even close.

[zee3p0]

The fact that Cerberus capital is involved and that lazaradis, is looking at making an offer leads me to assume that the fairfax offer will firm up or there will be another. The fact that the price is handsomely below book value and the forcasted cost savings look to put BlackBerry close to being on track for break even if service revenue doesn't fall too much more, tells me if the consortium can get the right people and right plan this can be a home run for the buyers or at least they can break the parts and not loose too much. Don't underestimate prem watsa, he has been watching this for a long time.

Posted via CB10

[fin2007]

The fact that Cerberus capital is involved and that lazaradis, is looking at making an offer leads me to assume that the fairfax offer will firm up or there will be another. The fact that the price is handsomely below book value and the forcasted cost savings look to put BlackBerry close to being on track for break even if service revenue doesn't fall too much more, tells me if the consortium can get the right people and right plan this can be a home run for the buyers or at least they can break the parts and not loose too much. Don't underestimate prem watsa, he has been watching this for a long time.

Posted via CB10

service revenue is dropping 12% quarter over quarter, and there is no way bbry could be profitable on selling hardware.

nobody can save this co now

[Just Me]

As to becoming bondholders in some sort of "collusion" I wonder why go through all these steps if they already have de facto control of the company and believe in Prem and his vision. They turfed out Jim B, didn't they.

If what you are saying is true and there are factions fighting for control. Would it not be safe to say Thornton has been on at least two sides. Initially he took the reins and worked on repairing and refocusing BlackBerry for the BB10 launch. During that time a growing interest in extracting the assets which formed BlackBerry seemed to infiltrate the board. TH's position changed when he was offered the multi-million bonus by the board (which included Prem) to prep BlackBerry to be broken up and sold.

Jim was going to down the correct track with SMS 2.0 based on the BBMx popularity. While he and Mike may have made some nearsighted mistakes at BlackBerry peak which culminated in their currently position behind iOS and Android. Both Mike (QNX) and Jim (BBMx) did put the major BlackBerry assets inplace prior to being ushered out of active roles in BlackBerry.

It is my fear that the break up of BlackBerry is almost. The bid by Prem has too much internal, shareholder and media support to be beaten by any other bid. If what Jim and Mike put together was so terrible why are so many lining up to tear the best pieces out and make them their own. Mike or anyone else looking to keep this company together is going to have to find to appeal to the longs to garnish their support or have deeper pockets.

BlackBerry can survive and prosper as a niche player.


Posted via CB10

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

I hope they vote NO!

I don't own stock, so I lose nothing. But I think Fairfax is going to break BB up and sell off pieces to the highest bidder - really think they are already shopping around for buyers. Would like to see BlackBerry forced to try and turn things around instead of sitting back and waiting for something to happen to them.

[kfh227]

HAHA

Posted via CB10

[kfh227]

BWA HAHA

Posted via CB10

[SigmaBei]

I kind feel they will extend the deadline, cause it is so quiet now.

[russworman]

If you read the statements regarding potential bidders carefully then you will notice that BlackBerry has been approaching these companies. I don't really believe anyone else is interested. If the board or share holders vote down the offer from Prem Watsa then I believe that the stock will tank and BlackBerry will basically close up after selling off all assets and spinning off BBM. Think about the headlines and what that will say to potential customers...

Posted via CB10

[SigmaBei]

So sad to hear this.

Seems that 3 years ago, if Blackberry
1. Made BBM cross platform
2. Sold hardware department
3. Used Android as the main OS, and BB10 as the backup

It would have a much better situation.

The board couldn't make a prediction on the market, especially they didn't see the potential of mobile messengers.

And also to my surprise, BB10 is such unsuccessful.

If you read the statements regarding potential bidders carefully then you will notice that BlackBerry has been approaching these companies. I don't really believe anyone else is interested. If the board or share holders vote down the offer from Prem Watsa then I believe that the stock will tank and BlackBerry will basically close up after selling off all assets and spinning off BBM. Think about the headlines and what that will say to potential customers...

Posted via CB10

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

So sad to hear this.

Seems that 3 years ago, if Blackberry
1. Made BBM cross platform
2. Sold hardware department
3. Used Android as the main OS, and BB10 as the backup

It would have a much better situation.

The board couldn't make a prediction on the market, especially they didn't see the potential of mobile messengers.

And also to my surprise, BB10 is such unsuccessful.

Potential?

A lump of coal has potential to one day be a valuable diamond. Could BBM one day replace Facebook and be worth Billions of dollars, sure it could do that. But with the right talent and leadership BB10 could have been a success too.

[SigmaBei]

BB10 is too late and much more difficulty for it to catch up others in apps.

BBM is much early than any other mobile messengers, and has tens of millions of users before WhatApp, Wechat and Line came out, just as Facebook is early than Google+.

So I would say BBM has much much better chance to be the diamond of Canada, the leads in RIM just couldn't see this.

Potential?

A lump of coal has potential to one day be a valuable diamond. Could BBM one day replace Facebook and be worth Billions of dollars, sure it could do that. But with the right talent and leadership BB10 could have been a success too.