[OMGitworks]

perhaps they shipped x-million and claimed sell-outs because....they sold out.

Very unlikely. Would be nice, but unlikely.

[Tinomane]

Kevin, can you at least give us some comfort by saying Canaccord and those guys are completely out of whack?

This pls

[Andrew4life]

..........
I have read rumors that Heins might comment to refute the latest rumors on shipments ........

You read some hack on twitter spouting BS. I saw the tweets this morning as well. The guy is a total hack saying one thing one day, and something else the next day. He's just there to rile up the crowd.

The only rumours or news that I care about is from
1) BlackBerry and BlackBerry Employees
2) Established Analysts and Websites <--Even here it can be hit and miss but at least you know there will be some truth.

Lets face it, no one knows what will happen in the future. You can only estimate, predict and determine the probability of something happening.

[Marc_Paradise]

You read some hack on twitter spouting BS. I saw the tweets this morning as well. The guy is a total hack saying one thing one day, and something else the next day. He's just there to rile up the crowd.

The only rumours or news that I care about is from
1) BlackBerry and BlackBerry Employees
2) Established Analysts and Websites <--Even here it can be hit and miss but at least you know there will be some truth.

Lets face it, no one knows what will happen in the future. You can only estimate, predict and determine the probability of something happening.

Yeah, Toofast/woofwoof2000 - they are literally saying different things based on current direction of the stock movement - flip flopping several times during the day. Kind of annoying... but overall s/he just seems to be making things up completely for whatever reason.

[BBNation]

Here is one..
tweet from Jonathan

Photo by jonathancheban &bull; Instagram

Jonathan Cheban✔ @JonathanCheban


I NEVER thought I would not use a keyboard.. I'm addddicted to the new Blackberry z10.. It gets every… Photo by jonathancheban &bull; Instagram

[EchoTango]

While I think the number of units sold in the fist few days is important, the real test will be once the early adopters have all bought, what are the rest of the consumers going to buy. Also, the Corporate purchases are also up in the air, what did all the testing reveal ?

I think Thorsten is doing a remarkable job and has done all the right things up to this point. I just hope we don't have another BBerry CEO boasting "we're going to blow the doors off the competition" and then really delivering nothng....

[mikeycollins13]

Its all speculation until BBRY officially announce sales numbers, which I dont foresee until the earnings call on Mar 28th

I disagree as I take the view that they want to be able to show massive foreign sales etc to turn the 'momentum' / US perception around of being a total fail. This is why they have opened so many more markets than ever expected. Unit shipped=Unit sold. They are pushing these out like hot cakes to have a big 'win' surprise BEFORE US launch...So they have to announce in early March if you believe, like I do, that is their strategy.

[EchoTango]

I kind of agree with you, but I'm not sure this has anything to do with the US launch. CEO of public companies have to be very careful when giving precise number outside of the normal earnings reporting cycle. They can say "all is good" or "things are going fantastic" or "I'm concerned" and of these do not have a number or other precise measurement attached.

To your point regarding positioning, BBerry may "warn" of higher sales than anticipated to send the message to the market of their success. However, you have to be very careful because what might be considered a success by Blackberry, may not hold true for all shareholders.

[kcdist]

BBRY has, when required in the past, made Profit Warnings shortly after the end of the quarter. I can't recall if they've ever made a 'Positive Profit Advisory', but I'm aware of other companies that have. Q4 ends on March 2nd, and the earnings are reported on March 28th. I understand the U.S. release is expected in Mid March.

Now, if I were CEO, and if the Z10 numbers 'shipped' have greatly exceeded the low ball estimates of 300,000, I would make a issue a positive release on or about March 4th. This would hopefully take the wind out of the sails of many of the shorts, and if marketed correctly, could bring some positive 'buzz' prior to the U.S. release.

[Bbnivende]

What should be our reasonable expectation for sales of a new BB model in Canada ?

Some historical data from Comscore care of Mobilesyrup.
It appears that the Torch 9800 was sold for about 10 months in Canada prior to be counted in the subscriber base report July 2011 at 330,121 units.
Let's assume that the Torch sells 1.5 times better in that first month ... at best 50,000 units. Let's say that the z10 sells even better ! at 75,000 units.

In the Canadian market 75,000 units in the first month ( feb not the height of phone sales I suspect) would be in my view ... stellar. 50,000 units acceptable. All this to say ... the Canadian market is not huge ... maybe the same in relative terms as California.

http://mobilesyrup.com/2011/09/20/co...-market-share/

[Pete The Penguin]

The current UK price is 516 GBP for a black, factory unlocked Z10 (STL100-2) - I bought mine for 480 GBP.

Posted via CB10

[Andrew4life]

BBRY has, when required in the past, made Profit Warnings shortly after the end of the quarter. I can't recall if they've ever made a 'Positive Profit Advisory', but I'm aware of other companies that have. Q4 ends on March 2nd, and the earnings are reported on March 28th. I understand the U.S. release is expected in Mid March.

Now, if I were CEO, and if the Z10 numbers 'shipped' have greatly exceeded the low ball estimates of 300,000, I would make a issue a positive release on or about March 4th. This would hopefully take the wind out of the sails of many of the shorts, and if marketed correctly, could bring some positive 'buzz' prior to the U.S. release.

They already said they will not be giving guidance.

[BBNation]

They already said they will not be giving guidance.

True but that was the case when things were not good..now they might start doing it after this ER as per last few ERs they said they won't as shorts kept abusing the ER calls about future earnings

[BBhombre]

It could turn out that BBRY does not release sales figures broken out by phone. Most companies don't and BBRY hasn't done this before. For example, last quarter they just announced that they sold 7 million phones and did not specify how many of each. If sales of Z10 are great, this would be a bad strategy. If sales are not so good, it might be a good strategy.

It will be interesting to see if the 7 million number goes up or down. This might tell how many are joining from other platforms vs upgrading from BB7.

[RubberChicken76]

Remember, BlackBerry doesn't gives sales numbers anymore. They only give numbers shipped which is much more vague.

No, they give both. They give shipped in the press release, and they give sellthrough usually on the earnings call. Last quarter, they shipped 6.9 million and sold through 8.4 million.

They don't break out the models though. Never heard them say "Curve sold ____ units, Bold sold ____, Torch Sold _____"


So it will be interesting to see if they break out BlackBerry 10 sales. No doubt they'll be asked a lot.

[howarmat]

they will seperate out the z10 sales for sure. investors would be quite upset if they didnt

[RubberChicken76]

Now, if I were CEO, and if the Z10 numbers 'shipped' have greatly exceeded the low ball estimates of 300,000, I would make a issue a positive release on or about March 4th. This would hopefully take the wind out of the sails of many of the shorts, and if marketed correctly, could bring some positive 'buzz' prior to the U.S. release.

Trust me, that blows up. One company I worked with used to stuff the channel with product they couldn't possibly sell, then brag about the great sales. When a bunch of it came back a couple quarters later and they had a big loss and investors freaked. Later, the CEO left and they brought in all new management. What was counted as sales then was what was sold through. If stuff wasn't moving in the stores, the stuff was provisioned against in the number. If stuff was sitting in the warehouse, it was provisioned against. If we did a price cut or a rebate, they were counted as provisions in the numbers.

In the end, the company got substantially better at inventory management.

This blew up with the PlayBook. RIM shipped 700,000 of them, then all of a sudden took a half billion dollar provision against it. Not sure whether it was due to inventory in the warehouse, or to account for price cuts for inventory in the stores or both.

[njblackberry]

Why does anyone think that Kevin, not an employee of BlackBerry, would have inside sales information.
And if he did have inside information and shared it, I think that the SEC and Canadian Securities Administrations would be very interested in that.

Very well informed? Yes. Privy to inside sales information, No.

Whether or not you believe Canaccord (uh oh, Canadian on Canadian crime) or not will only be proven when actually sales (not shipped) numbers are out at the next quarterly report in late March.

Anything said until then is rumor or conjecture. Or stock manipulation by the vast global media conspiracy. Heh heh heh.

[THBW]

What should be our reasonable expectation for sales of a new BB model in Canada ?

Some historical data from Comscore care of Mobilesyrup.
It appears that the Torch 9800 was sold for about 10 months in Canada prior to be counted in the subscriber base report July 2011 at 330,121 units.
Let's assume that the Torch sells 1.5 times better in that first month ... at best 50,000 units. Let's say that the z10 sells even better ! at 75,000 units.

In the Canadian market 75,000 units in the first month ( feb not the height of phone sales I suspect) would be in my view ... stellar. 50,000 units acceptable. All this to say ... the Canadian market is not huge ... maybe the same in relative terms as California.

comScore: iPhone 4 most popular smartphone in Canada, Android now has 19% market share | MobileSyrup.com

Thanks for your analysis but here is my problem with the 50K number. Factor out preorders (approximately 20K) that leaves you with 30K. Now, there are approximately 3000 stores in Canada selling the device so then each store would only be selling 10 per month or 2.5 per week. That is only one phone every 2.5 days. I have been trying for two weeks to get a Z10 at two Bell stores and they are always sold out. Likewise, we haven't heard anything about corporate purchases and I guarantee they won't be zero. I bet this is the ace in the hole that BB will bring out on March 28th.

[EchoTango]

Thanks for your analysis but here is my problem with the 50K number. Factor out preorders (approximately 20K) that leaves you with 30K. Now, there are approximately 3000 stores in Canada selling the device so then each store would only be selling 10 per month or 2.5 per week. That is only one phone every 2.5 days. I have been trying for two weeks to get a Z10 at two Bell stores and they are always sold out. Likewise, we haven't heard anything about corporate purchases and I guarantee they won't be zero. I bet this is the ace in the hole that BB will bring out on March 28th.

I completely agree, the Corporate sales are the wild card in all of this. However, Corporations are not known for being early adopters of anything and we may not see volume purchasing until at least the following quarter.

We all have to remember this is a marathon and not a sprint.

[bigbbrybeliever]

1, 218,321 units sold so far.
....
Ok, I just made that number up. Not sure yet. All of my indicators have been EXTREMELY positive so far - web traffic, store sales, forum action, etc.

Will give it some more thought and see if I can draw a good estimate. There are a few big things to take into account that I don't have a solid feeling for just yet.

Heads down on CrackBerry Re-Launch right now too, so not much free time. But will give it some thought.

K

It is fun to guess the Z10 sale number in Feb. But I will be more interested in the sale number for a little long period, said next 12 months.
Three estimations were made and the results are as follows:
Method One:
Data used:
Based on Canadian Market Survey Data by Forum Research (asked 1,091 people in Canada, aged 18 or older):
8 per cent said they were “almost certain” to buy one of the devices, while 19 per cent said they are “very likely” to buy one.
Low / high range of the sell # in Canada is 1.2 million to 2.6 million.
% of Blackberry market shares in Canada = 4% (data from THIRD QUARTER FISCAL 2013 RESULTS, which states as follows: 65% other than USA, UK and Canada, USA = 19%, UK = 11% and Canada = 4%).
With above data, then the project Z10 (+ Q10) sell number will be:
The low end = 1.2 / 0.04 = 30 million
The high end = 2.6 / 0.04 = 65 million.

Method Two:
Data used:
a) Current BB user based = 79 million (Source Blackberry latest Q report)
b) % of converters from other platform vs total Z10 sold:
50% (source from Roger)
45% (source from Crackberry survey)
Average = 47.5%.
c) 25% of existing BB user will upgrade to Z10 (+ Q10) in one year (source from several analysts)
With above data, then the project Z10 (+ Q10) sell number will be:
0.25 X 78 * (1 + 0.475/0.5) = 38.05 millions.
Method Three:
Data used: Blackberry Market share projection in 2013 by IDC.
Crunching The Numbers: BlackBerry Severely Undervalued Seaking Alpha by Gene Chan

Best case = 101.1 million Z10
Median case = 72.2 million Z10
Worst case = 32.5 million Z10.

It is very interesting to note that the low end Z10 sale projection from Method #1 and Method #3 are so close to each other, i.e., 30 and 32,5 million, respectively.
Are they just coincident or the data from different sources indeed mean something. You judge by yourselves.

[La Emperor]

I also could not understand if Canaccord even included the India launch. It would only be a few days of sales before March 2 I know, but given the population and market potential ( read somewhere in CB land that 20% of population are middle class = 240 million people, can afford the device ) equaling close to the US size, sales could easily blow the 300K prediction.

If the iphone could do a million in a few days ( read somewhere so from memory only ), would 10% of that be reasonable assumption for the Z10 given 5 business selling days before the Q ends. That would be 100K plus whatever sales they have for Canada, UK, KSA, SA, UAE. It's a conservative guess and I believe would top the 300K prediction by Cannaccord easily.

So the India launch is the one to watch and if sales are strong, we can have some shorts covering before the March 28th reporting or at least that time period.

Good luck all.

Thanks for your analysis but here is my problem with the 50K number. Factor out preorders (approximately 20K) that leaves you with 30K. Now, there are approximately 3000 stores in Canada selling the device so then each store would only be selling 10 per month or 2.5 per week. That is only one phone every 2.5 days. I have been trying for two weeks to get a Z10 at two Bell stores and they are always sold out. Likewise, we haven't heard anything about corporate purchases and I guarantee they won't be zero. I bet this is the ace in the hole that BB will bring out on March 28th.

[Bbnivende]

Thanks for your analysis but here is my problem with the 50K number. Factor out preorders (approximately 20K) that leaves you with 30K. Now, there are approximately 3000 stores in Canada selling the device so then each store would only be selling 10 per month or 2.5 per week. That is only one phone every 2.5 days. I have been trying for two weeks to get a Z10 at two Bell stores and they are always sold out. Likewise, we haven't heard anything about corporate purchases and I guarantee they won't be zero. I bet this is the ace in the hole that BB will bring out on March 28th.

I am assuming that you would have gone to an outlet of some kind to pick up your pre-order ? The figures I used represent only a population of handsets acquired over a given span of time and would include preorders, corporate phones, everything. That is 33000 per month. What we don't know is the acquisitions curve. I assumed 50,000 units the first month and 280,000 the next 9 months. I would assume that the big 3 pre-orders were 5000 each = 15000 and used up the outlets initial supplies. If you assume that in addition to pre-orders each outlet sold 1 per day on average over 21 sales days in Feb ( after preorders were serviced) you get 63,000 units in Feb. All this is to point out that if Canadian sales are 75,000 for Feb that is not a bad number all things considered ... might be higher (90,000??) but not some of the wild numbers that some hope for.

As I said in another post. Sales figures are all relative to the market and the time period. If BB sold 20 % of all smartphones sold in Canada for Feb would we be happy ? The Bell guy I talked to seemed to be saying that the Z10 was selling at about the same rate as the other top selling models. It is not a dud in the marketplace but the marketplace is not as large as many think. I think I read somewhere that there where 700,000 lumia 920's sold in December in the USA. A market that is ten times larger than Canada. I think that the Z10 is doing fine and the problem is with our expectations.

We really will not know whether BB10 is a game changer until after both the Z10 and the Q10 have been exposed to the world wide market for a six month period. What are the goals? ... just to outsell WP8 devices and then move up to be a "player". What BB needs to do is to make inroads into China and India markets that are less mature than our own. That is were the brand can grow. If they can get something done to kickstart China sales - that would be huge and would really send Morganplus8 's charts for a loop.

Lastly, BB7 will still be outselling BB10 by quite a margin in Q4- worldwide. The analysts will be looking to ensure that total unit sales have not fallen into the tank.

[RubberChicken76]

I think I read somewhere that there where 700,000 lumia 920's sold in December in the USA.

Nokia's N. American handset sales jump to 700,000 in Q4, firm posts profit - FierceWireless

They sold 700,000 Lumias (all models) during the full quarter ending in December in the USA and over 4 million Windows Phones worldwide.


We really will not know whether BB10 is a game changer until after both the Z10 and the Q10 have been exposed to the world wide market for a six month period. What are the goals? ... just to outsell WP8 devices and then move up to be a "player".[/QUOTE]

[Bbnivende]

Nokia's N. American handset sales jump to 700,000 in Q4, firm posts profit - FierceWireless

They sold 700,000 Lumias (all models) during the full quarter ending in December in the USA and over 4 million Windows Phones worldwide.

I gather people buy more phones at Christmas.
We really will not know whether BB10 is a game changer until after both the Z10 and the Q10 have been exposed to the world wide market for a six month period. What are the goals? ... just to outsell WP8 devices and then move up to be a "player".

[/QUOTE]

I do think that the marketplace is big enough for four platforms or even more. Android sales will crest and recede. Since Smartphones came into being there have always been multiple platforms.
What BB can do or should do is to work with developers in each market. The USA is not the cradle of smartphone civilization. The issue going forward is the transition to cheap smartphones in Africa, and the BRIC countries. BB needs cheap QNX based smartphones for the emerging countries ASAP ... or can they exist on cheap BB7 devices ?