[notafanofyou]

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[Shanerredflag]

Yes! Thank you, thank you, thank you!

Context of his opinion? The man has a dismal...no...pathetic accuracy record...what would you like to discuss?

Passport'n stuff all day long.

[THBW]

I was saying discussion of the report. If his accuracy is bad, why? Is there some sort of raw data to share that would help guide us to the same conclusion? Or if we just want to avoid that altogether, could you suggest some analyst(s) who do have a good record and we should be reading, and specifically what is their call on blackberry that makes their competing reports worth reading?

I don't mean that to sound rude or argumentative, I am really honestly curious for your thoughts on this analyst or your analyst of choice, supported by some links or historical context or whatever it is that supports that opinion.

Fawcette has a very long history with Black Berry, particularly when he was part of Pacific Crest. I don't think we need to cover her.

To be honest, his report lacked careful analysis and appeared to be more subjective opinion than relevant fact. Oddly, he seemed incredulous that BBM might generate 100 million in revenue. If we are talking both consumer and enterprise BBM, I'm not sure how they can miss. BBM protected, BBM meetings, etc., these generate cash. And then, he strangely argued that BlackBerry couldn't increase its market share with BES12. Really, it is state-of-the-art, light years of mobile iron, provides a greater variety of services for very low cost. Did I miss something or do companies like to pay more for a crappier service? Maybe in Fawcette world but not mine. There is good news. He was smart enough to stay clear of declaring passport sales a failure.

In the end, predictions come down to who you believe. In this regard, Chen's record is better than Fawcettes. That is where it sits.

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[Shanerredflag]

I was saying discussion of the report. If his accuracy is bad, why? Is there some sort of raw data to share that would help guide us to the same conclusion? Or if we just want to avoid that altogether, could you suggest some analyst(s) who do have a good record and we should be reading, and specifically what is their call on blackberry that makes their competing reports worth reading?

I don't mean that to sound rude or argumentative, I am really honestly curious for your thoughts on this analyst or your analyst of choice, supported by some links or historical context or whatever it is that supports that opinion.

Matt, no worries...my thoughts with links are to be found within the I Support thread...this guy's has been discussed at nauseum and imho deserves no credit. He comes out of the wood work every so often then climbs back in his hole. I don't support or follow any particular analyst but do occasionally research their notes for inaccuracies, holes and misinterpretation.

Passport'n stuff all day long.

[early2bed]

Day five of the stock market being either unaware of or unimpressed by the Morgan Stanley downgrade conflict of interest erasing about $800M in BBRY market capitalization.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Maybe we can discuss the actual substance of the report?

Doesn't it seem just a little optimistic to think that software revenue is going to grow quickly enough next year to actually offset the loss of service revenue?

I know Chen had a reputation at Sybase for exceeding expectations. So I suppose you could bet on him as a person. But I don't know that Sybase was really as damaged as BB is.

The stock has returned now to $10. Isn't that about where it was a couple of weeks ago before it was driven up by rumors?


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You'd need to go to a real investment forum for that.....

This is a FAN site, so there are a lot of emotional connections here. Slightest positive news always is a reason to hold on because the stock is headed to $20.... and if it's negative its a conspiracy to keep the stock down, either Apple is paying the media. Or analyst and investment firms are manipulating BlackBerry for their own personal profits.

It's never about poor management, weak products and services, lack of marketing.....

What I got out of the MS report was that they don't see much change taking place. Last year BlackBerry started the year really low and was undervalued ($7.50) and most everyone saw room for growth due to to companies overall value (not really any expected growth in their sector). This year they should be starting off the year around the $10 mark, which is pretty much where they will stay (=/- $2) until they prove that they have a sustainable business plan.

[Shanerredflag]

Like Yahoo...or stocktwits...lol

Passport'n stuff all day long.

[m1a1mg]

Matt, no worries...my thoughts with links are to be found within the I Support thread...this guy's has been discussed at nauseum and imho deserves no credit. He comes out of the wood work every so often then climbs back in his hole. I don't support or follow any particular analyst but do occasionally research their notes for inaccuracies, holes and misinterpretation.

Passport'n stuff all day long.

The problem with the "I support" thread, is articles that are negative towards BB are seen as ruled by shorts, but let the same source say something good about BB and the same person is Nostradamus.

[exiledcanadian]

The BlackBerry "can't doing nothing right" crowd refuses to acknowledge the bias and proven record of MS. They seem to have an agenda. Why else spend inordinate amounts of time posting on a fan site which you clearly hate?

I personally don't hate the site or the stock. I find the latest leaks for my Z10 (not my daily driver) and some useful info here. I hold the stock through a mutual fund. I just don't get emotional about it.

Just because Faucette downgrades the stock doesn't mean he's out to destroy the company. He was right throughout all the smoke and mirrors put out by BB last year regarding sales of the Z10 and he's been mostly right about BBRY over the last 18 months. It's his job to analyze companies for his clients and give them honest assessments. So he's not a BBRY cheerleader. None of the BBRY analysts are. The overwhelming consensus is "hold" with a one "buy" and a few "sells."

If there was a huge MS conspiracy to prop up Mobile Iron, it failed miserably. Since the BBRY downgrade, MOBL has gained a whopping nickel. Folks who work on Wall St. are smarter than you give them credit for. They know who all the players all, their history, their associations, who they underwrite and how they operate. They also know that since the 2009 meltdown, the SEC is looking at everything a lot more closely. Reading the comments on this site, you would think traders were all clueless zombies that were sucked into the world of Orwell's "1984" and cannot think for themselves. They do.

(Full disclosure: even though I'm not giving any advice, I have been admonished in the past for not providing an exceptionally-positive opinion of the stock. I own the stock through one of my funds but I am not in an emotionally-charged relationship with it.)

[Paintman321]

Faucette's always downgraded bbry, even in 2005 before it went to it's all time highs. I wonder if I could even find one upgrade to bbry he's done?

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[itsnotaboutart]

I wonder if I could even find one upgrade to bbry he's done?

I could not find anything to suggest that James Faucette has been anything but bearish on BlackBerry. So it is not really earth shattering that he still is. I think he moved the market this time because his report came with a Morgan Stanley downgrade. I can only assume that he was not with MS when it was bullish on BlackBerry. The headline should be: "Bearish analyst moves to Morgan Stanley and brings bearish analysis with him".

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[3MIKE]

Probably they are one of the few still shorting the BBRY stock

Z10

[3MIKE]

Probably they are one of the few still shorting the BBRY stock

Z10

They = Morgan Stanley

Z10