[savingblackberry]

Today's CIO @ The C Suite - BlackBerry Ltd (BBRY) is a Sell: New Strategy is Good, But Comes Too Late
He has a $5 price target. BBRY has $5 in cash.
So this "analyst" (or is it anal-yeast) thinks:
BBM
QNX
Nnanthealth investent
EMM/MDM
IoT
BB10: passport, classic etc
44,000 patents
... are all worthless!
How much does this corrupt twerp gets paid to bash Blackberry?

[masterful]

Don't fall to the click bait

#BBFactCheck

[BACK-2-BLACK]

thanks for highlighting it... one less article to read!

definitely not going to click on that

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

How does BlackBerry have $5 in CASH?

Almost $2 Billion of the $3.1 Billion is obligated to others.... So really BlackBerry only has about $1.2 Billion in Cash AND INVESTMENTS. Which sometimes you invest in something and you can double or triple your investment, and then sometimes you can lose your investment. But in most all cases your money is tied up and you may not even have access to it. Like BlackBerry's investment into Nanathealth....

We really don't know how much "cash" there is.

BlackBerry has a lot of potential... but ultimately potential doesn't pay the bills.

But yes his valuation of BlackBerry is overly negative at this point.... we really need to see how sales of BES and the Classic go. Along with an indication of when Project Ion will be (if ever) making the company money.

[savingblackberry]

Two scenarios:
Converts convert: they will for sure:
Then $3.2 Billion cash divided by 650Mi fully diluted: $5 in cash
Converts do not convert: absurd scenario:
Then 3.2B cash-11.2 Bil debt = $2 bil divided by 540 fully diluted shares $4 in cash
Plus dont forget some more cash coming from taxes, and then nanthealth IPO
Other liabilities cancelled by other current assets.
Read up on enterprise value and how conv debs work
BBRT not burning cash.
But I am convinced BBRYT needs to spinoff and partner, then the king is back.

How does BlackBerry have $5 in CASH?

Almost $2 Billion of the $3.1 Billion is obligated to others.... So really BlackBerry only has about $1.2 Billion in Cash AND INVESTMENTS. Which sometimes you invest in something and you can double or triple your investment, and then sometimes you can lose your investment. But in most all cases your money is tied up and you may not even have access to it. Like BlackBerry's investment into Nanathealth....

We really don't know how much "cash" there is.

BlackBerry has a lot of potential... but ultimately potential doesn't pay the bills.

But yes his valuation of BlackBerry is overly negative at this point.... we really need to see how sales of BES and the Classic go. Along with an indication of when Project Ion will be (if ever) making the company money.

[savingblackberry]

Overky negative?
It is insane, criminal, he should go to jail for taking bribes.

How does BlackBerry have $5 in CASH?

Almost $2 Billion of the $3.1 Billion is obligated to others.... So really BlackBerry only has about $1.2 Billion in Cash AND INVESTMENTS. Which sometimes you invest in something and you can double or triple your investment, and then sometimes you can lose your investment. But in most all cases your money is tied up and you may not even have access to it. Like BlackBerry's investment into Nanathealth....

We really don't know how much "cash" there is.

BlackBerry has a lot of potential... but ultimately potential doesn't pay the bills.

But yes his valuation of BlackBerry is overly negative at this point.... we really need to see how sales of BES and the Classic go. Along with an indication of when Project Ion will be (if ever) making the company money.

[Bla1ze]

thanks for highlighting it... one less article to read!

definitely not going to click on that

That's how all terrible posts should be treated. Sadly, instead they just get shared and people dive right in to click the links.

[Prem WatsApp]

Two scenarios:
Converts convert: they will for sure:
Then $3.2 Billion cash divided by 650Mi fully diluted: $5 in cash
Converts do not convert: absurd scenario:
Then 3.2B cash-11.2 Bil debt = $2 bil divided by 540 fully diluted shares $4 in cash
Plus dont forget some more cash coming from taxes, and then nanthealth IPO
Other liabilities cancelled by other current assets.
Read up on enterprise value and how conv debs work
BBRT not burning cash.
But I am convinced BBRYT needs to spinoff and partner, then the king is back.

You better edit that... :-)
That's a whole lot of dough!

�   Telstra + Classic, Optus + PP, AT&T + PP , Verizon + Classic... why the mix, Mr. Fix?   �

[menshawy]

That's how all terrible posts should be treated. Sadly, instead they just get shared and people dive right in to click the links.

Anyway we are a small group of BlackBerry 10 users. Not going to generate enough traffic for the site to pay the hostage fees :-P

Posted via CB10

[anon(8865116)]

Sometimes it pays to be on the negative side of things. If he's right, he'll be declared wise and get to parade around as if he was the only analyst who called it. If he's wrong, no one will notice anyway in the long-term.

[savingblackberry]

$3.2 Bil in cash
$1.25 in conv debt that will be converted to equity for sure
So 650 million shares and $3.2 b in cash that is $5 in cash
Other obligations offset by other assets.

How does BlackBerry have $5 in CASH?

Almost $2 Billion of the $3.1 Billion is obligated to others.... So really BlackBerry only has about $1.2 Billion in Cash AND INVESTMENTS. Which sometimes you invest in something and you can double or triple your investment, and then sometimes you can lose your investment. But in most all cases your money is tied up and you may not even have access to it. Like BlackBerry's investment into Nanathealth....

We really don't know how much "cash" there is.

BlackBerry has a lot of potential... but ultimately potential doesn't pay the bills.

But yes his valuation of BlackBerry is overly negative at this point.... we really need to see how sales of BES and the Classic go. Along with an indication of when Project Ion will be (if ever) making the company money.

[savingblackberry]

Throughout human history, propaganda has played a big part and has affected actual outcomes. Our company needs to aggressively counter this negative perception, once a good deal done as i have outlined these carnival barkers will go away.

That's how all terrible posts should be treated. Sadly, instead they just get shared and people dive right in to click the links.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

$3.2 Bil in cash
$1.25 in conv debt that will be converted to equity for sure
So 650 million shares and $3.2 b in cash that is $5 in cash
Other obligations offset by other assets.

Sorry but I don't think you are right...

Total cash, cash equivalents, short-term and long-term investments was $3.1 billion as of November 29, 2014. The cash balance increased $43 million in the third quarter, excluding net outlays of $31 million related to acquisitions during the quarter. Purchase obligations and other commitments amounted to approximately $1.6 billion as of November 29, 2014, with purchase orders with contract manufacturers representing approximately $565 million of the total, compared to $344 million at the end of the second quarter.

Of the $1.6 Billion in obligations only $564 million was in purchase orders that would be converted into sellable products. Part of this is an amount of $1.25 Billion that showed up after the Fairfax deal came about last year. So I imagine that would come off the top before a "basic" shareholder would see any of it.

And again... long term investments are sometime NEVER converted back to cash. So really unless you know the breakdown on investments vs actual cash you really have no way to know how much real equity there is.

Now yes there are other assets (much fewer than there were two years ago) that would count towards share value... so I do agree that right now $5 is not a fair valuation. But if BlackBerry doesn't start selling products of some sort... I could see it being lower than $10.

[savingblackberry]

You are talking about liquidation, BB is anything but that. Purchase obligation also implies you purchase and then sell.
All Chen needs to do is unleash value of just one asset and then whole paradigm changes.
Last 4-5 years, Jim/Mike/Thorsten didnt listen to me, hope John does.

Sorry but I don't think you are right...

Of the $1.6 Billion in obligations only $564 million was in purchase orders that would be converted into sellable products. Part of this is an amount of $1.25 Billion that showed up after the Fairfax deal came about last year. So I imagine that would come off the top before a "basic" shareholder would see any of it.

And again... long term investments are sometime NEVER converted back to cash. So really unless you know the breakdown on investments vs actual cash you really have no way to know how much real equity there is.

Now yes there are other assets (much fewer than there were two years ago) that would count towards share value... so I do agree that right now $5 is not a fair valuation. But if BlackBerry doesn't start selling products of some sort... I could see it being lower than $10.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

You are talking about liquidation, BB is anything but that. Purchase obligation also implies you purchase and then sell.
All Chen needs to do is unleash value of just one asset and then whole paradigm changes.
Last 4-5 years, Jim/Mike/Thorsten didnt listen to me, hope John does.

I'm talking about there isn't anything to "unleash" in the short term without affecting BlackBerry's ability to function long term. Also that your unleashing would imply to the rest of the market that they were liquidating - as the patents are pretty much the last tangible assets they have left. Which would result in further devaluation of the stock.

[Drenegade]

Throughout human history, propaganda has played a big part and has affected actual outcomes. Our company needs to aggressively counter this negative perception, once a good deal done as i have outlined these carnival barkers will go away.

Lol at "our company".

Powered by Z30

[savingblackberry]

Lol to your Lol...lol!!!

Lol at "our company".

Powered by Z30

[Superfly_FR]

Well, the steet digested $14 no problem on Samsung rumor ... I'd guess this is what a "market fair value" is

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Well, the steet digested $14 no problem on Samsung rumor ... I'd guess this is what a "market fair value" is

What the street digested... and what another company would REALLY offer, might be very different.

The real problem is it is difficult to know what the fair market value of BlackBerry is, to really know you would need access to much more than what BlackBerry is willing to put on their financial statements. A few companies took BlackBerry up on the offer to see their Books back during Heins "we are for sale open house".... back then $10 a share looked like a good price. And at that time sales, revenues and assists were all much higher than they are today.

Personally I really can't imagine WHY someone hasn't bought BlackBerry - for Google, Microsoft, Apple it would be a pretty cheap buy into the corporate world. But based on what Microsoft bought Nokia for... I don't think you could value BlackBerry at that rumored amount.

[Superfly_FR]

[...] A few companies took BlackBerry up on the offer to see their Books back during Heins "we are for sale open house".... back then $10 a share looked like a good price. And at that time sales, revenues and assists were all much higher than they are today.
[...]

sales and revenues ... my point exactly. More sales with cash burn V.S lowest sales with margin ... and a reachable pespective, thus the "fair" $4 addition, IMHO.
A "break appart value" at $10 V.S a "grow the business" at $14 ...

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

sales and revenues ... my point exactly. More sales with cash burn V.S lowest sales with margin ... and a reachable pespective, thus the "fair" $4 addition, IMHO.
A "break appart value" at $10 V.S a "grow the business" at $14 ...

So nine times revenues.... which are falling at a pretty consistent rate? Sure sound like something any board would approve.

[THBW]

What the street digested... and what another company would REALLY offer, might be very different.

The real problem is it is difficult to know what the fair market value of BlackBerry is, to really know you would need access to much more than what BlackBerry is willing to put on their financial statements. A few companies took BlackBerry up on the offer to see their Books back during Heins "we are for sale open house".... back then $10 a share looked like a good price. And at that time sales, revenues and assists were all much higher than they are today.

Personally I really can't imagine WHY someone hasn't bought BlackBerry - for Google, Microsoft, Apple it would be a pretty cheap buy into the corporate world. But based on what Microsoft bought Nokia for... I don't think you could value BlackBerry at that rumored amount.

Nobody has bought it because it was never really for sale. It was all hot air and silly dreams.

As to Nokia, it was a company with no intrinsic value, few patents and lost in a hardware battle it couldn't possibly win. News had it that in its last attempts to stay in the game, it was going to dump the Windows platform. That was enough for MS to buy it. Sort of sad.

Posted via CB10

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Nobody has bought it because it was never really for sale. It was all hot air and silly dreams.

As to Nokia, it was a company with no intrinsic value, few patents and lost in a hardware battle it couldn't possibly win. News had it that in its last attempts to stay in the game, it was going to dump the Windows platform. That was enough for MS to buy it. Sort of sad.

Posted via CB10

Nokia has some of the highest quality patents in the mobile market... which is why they didn't sell them to Microsoft. But Microsoft is paying them about $2.2 Billion to license those patents for ten years.... BlackBerry is also paying them too for use of some of their patents. Microsoft didn't buy Nokia, they bought just the hardware division. Which is what some want BlackBerry to do... sell off one or more of their divisions in order to raise cash and stock value...

[sosumi11]

Personally I really can't imagine WHY someone hasn't bought BlackBerry - for Google, Microsoft, Apple it would be a pretty cheap buy into the corporate world.

Apple doesn't need to buy itself into the enterprise world. Consumers are doing it for them.

Microsoft is still in the enterprise, but lack the mobile presence. After the Nokia fiasco, it's highly doubtful they will buy another handset only company.

Google is a business-to-business company. They are embedded in the enterprise with their database of users which is a key program for corporate marketing programs.

[birdman_38]

Apple doesn't need to buy itself into the enterprise world. Consumers are doing it for them.

700 million iPhones sold means tremendous success in consumer, but at what point does that market get saturated? Apple has a keen eye on enterprise.