02-24-13 05:36 PM
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  1. jason9900's Avatar
    Hey crackberry, so I have been investing in tech stocks long enough to know analyst expectations carry huge weight. Rece
    Last edited by jason9900; 10-26-14 at 02:22 AM.
    02-19-13 09:51 AM
  2. kbz1960's Avatar
    And where is it available in the month of February? Not everywhere so probably not a bad number.
    02-19-13 09:57 AM
  3. Willdroid1's Avatar
    I also think these numbers are way off. I believe there is a large pre-order volume that was likely unaccounted for as well. But if you ask me these estimates are good because it makes the real news look even better IMO. If you haven't already jumped in then I think now is a good opportunity. There is much resistance below this level.
    02-19-13 09:58 AM
  4. Sith_Apprentice's Avatar
    Hey crackberry, so I have been investing in tech stocks long enough to know analyst expectations carry huge weight. Recently Canaccord cut their projections to 300,000 BB10 units worldwide for the month of February. No if you ask me that is ridiculously low, I mean insultingly low. So we could just see this as a buying opportunity since I believe with 95% certainty there would be at the very least 500,000 shipped

    Posted via CB10
    The device was released in only a handful of markets this month, 300,000 units in the first month of availability, with major markets still waiting to see a full month's sales? That might be low balling it, it might not. The US market is many times the size of the UK and Canada, so the numbers being reported dont represent much overall. The US market will make or break BB10/Z10 sales.
    kbz1960 likes this.
    02-19-13 10:03 AM
  5. houshinto#IM's Avatar
    I don't how this type of "reporting" can be encouraged. Short term this may fuel more "negative" articles and push the stock price down, further adding pressure if not handcuffing BB's long term operations.
    Frankly, this is the drivel that starts BS rumors which then take on artificial "truthiness".
    bungaboy likes this.
    02-19-13 10:10 AM
  6. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    Meh - I thought 300-500 myself. If you think about it:

    - They shipped just under 7 million last quarter.
    - They went through two thirds of the quarter with no BlackBerry 10 sales (only old BlackBerry 7 devices)
    - In the final third of the quarter, they have UK sales, with launches coming in spurts throughout February in various markets. The USA is excluded entirely. Not sure it's shipping in Indonesia at all. Parts of Europe, India and the UAE are getting it partway through February.

    Not sure it's that off. Even if they launched in the US and everywhere they're expected to launch in this quarter on January 30th, a million devices would be in the range I'd expect
    02-19-13 10:11 AM
  7. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    The device was released in only a handful of markets this month, 300,000 units in the first month of availability, with major markets still waiting to see a full month's sales? That might be low balling it, it might not. The US market is many times the size of the UK and Canada, so the numbers being reported dont represent much overall. The US market will make or break BB10/Z10 sales.
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but based on current BB clients, UK+CAN = US ...
    Yet, I've read that in UAE, one single carrier pre-ordered up to 4K+ (edited, typo) devices ... do not forget UAE
    For CAN and UK, does anyone have the numbers for the 9900 launch ? total should be 150% of this (refers to Heins statement and some approximation) ...

    edit from gadgetMasters http://www.thegadgetmasters.com/2013...o-middle-east/
    The Z10 launched in Saudi Arabia yesterday (Feb 16). Axiom Telecom, unlike other carriers, actually gave a concrete number for Z10 pre-orders, stating that it received 4,250 pre-orders in 48 hours. Axiom is only one of six retailers selling the Z10 in the Kingdom, so the total pre-order number is likely between 15,000 to 25,000 units.
    02-19-13 10:13 AM
  8. cgk's Avatar
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but based on current BB clients, UK+CAN = US ...
    Yet, I've read that in UAE, one single carrier pre-ordered up to 4K+ (edited, typo) devices ... do not forget UAE
    For CAN and UK, does anyone have the numbers for the 9900 launch ? total should be 150% of this (refers to Heins statement and some approximation) ...

    edit from gadgetMasters BlackBerry Z10 is a Smash Hit From Canada to Europe to Middle East | The Gadget Masters
    As far as I am aware, we have never had solid figures for that launch - which is more than likely why it was picked - it's truthful but completely impossible to use to work actual sales from.
    02-19-13 10:19 AM
  9. silversun10's Avatar
    i guess it is OK to expect 300,000 then it will look that much better if it is higher..........
    02-19-13 10:21 AM
  10. THBW's Avatar
    I would take this analyst with a grain of salt. Canaccord has been playing the Apple long/RIM short game for quite a while. I think they are just trying to kick these tires one last time. Having read the analyst release in some detail, his predictions have been wrong in the past and his rationales for future numbers are illogical. Prior to launch, he predicted that BB would seel 1.75 million units in the first month. As much as I'm a BB fan, this numbers were wildly unrealistic given 1) the nature of the launch window and which countries would receive them (i.e. small) and 2) that BB itself limited its production to 2-3 million units to begin with. Now, he predicts that 300,000 have sold which I would classify as overly bearish. If you work the latter numbers, take into account preorders, the size of the countries involved and number of stores and companies fronting the Z10, I come out with numbers like 10-20 units sold per Canadian store. This is just unrealistically low. Further, he goes on to say that the low number is due to supply issues. Really 300,000 units creates a supply issue when BB has a stock 2-3 millions unit but when you predicted 1.75 million units sold, there was no problem with stock? Doesn't make sense in the least.

    If you sit down and think rationally about the launch, I think it is realistic to suggest numbers of 500-700 K units sold as of March 5, the last day of BB's financial quarter. One has to make certain estimates, one being a rate of sell through in the stores. I don't think it is unrealistic to suggest that an average store will sell between 40-50 phones in a given month in the 5-6 countries that BB has launched into. This certainly fits with what we have been hearing.
    bungaboy likes this.
    02-19-13 10:26 AM
  11. jason9900's Avatar
    Yes it was sold in many countries in Europe and North America and also the middle east. However I think enterprise is being overlooked also. They will definitely order in bulk. Also I think Canada alone selling 30-50 thousand in February is pretty realistic.

    Posted via CB10
    02-19-13 10:52 AM
  12. Sith_Apprentice's Avatar
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but based on current BB clients, UK+CAN = US ...
    Yet, I've read that in UAE, one single carrier pre-ordered up to 4K+ (edited, typo) devices ... do not forget UAE
    For CAN and UK, does anyone have the numbers for the 9900 launch ? total should be 150% of this (refers to Heins statement and some approximation) ...

    edit from gadgetMasters BlackBerry Z10 is a Smash Hit From Canada to Europe to Middle East | The Gadget Masters

    Not so sure of this Superfly!. UK has what, 65 million people and Canada has 35 million? US is 3.5 times that in terms of overall population. The US is the third most populace country in the world (in fact, at least the top 3 havent launched BB10 at all IIRC or just did) and its estimated that 50+% of the consumer market here uses a smartphone. Assuming that half of the population is the age to use a cell phone (lowball), that gives you 175 million potential users. Half of those using a smartphone would be 88 million people, or almost the entire population of the other two

    Most of the world doesnt have access to BB10, in terms of population its gotta be 85+%. Itll come, but this quarter wont be it. Next quarter will be the big test of BB10!
    02-19-13 10:56 AM
  13. Bbnivende's Avatar
    Not so sure of this Superfly!. UK has what, 65 million people and Canada has 35 million? US is 3.5 times that in terms of overall population. The US is the third most populace country in the world (in fact, at least the top 3 havent launched BB10 at all IIRC or just did) and its estimated that 50+% of the consumer market here uses a smartphone. Assuming that half of the population is the age to use a cell phone (lowball), that gives you 175 million potential users. Half of those using a smartphone would be 88 million people, or almost the entire population of the other two





    Most of the world doesnt have access to BB10, in terms of population its gotta be 85+%. Itll come, but this quarter wont be it. Next quarter will be the big test of BB10!
    Smartphone growth has stalled in Europe and North America ..basically we are talking about replacing existing phones for the next year. Not withstanding that USA is larger by a factor of 4 the number of active BB subscribers is also smaller by a factor of 4.

    What is keeping both BB and Nokia alive is sales of their low cost models in emerging markets. China and India are critical markets moving forward. BB needs work harder to expand those markets before it is too late. I think they can only do that by partnering with a major player in those markets.

    Ultimately the analysts are looking at the potential drop in service fees and whether BB can maintain or grow their worldwide subscriber base at the end of BB's Q4.

    I am not sure that 300,000 units is good or bad. It seems as if the Analysts opening predictions were totally off base anyway.
    02-19-13 12:44 PM
  14. howarmat's Avatar
    300k might be low but its not outright depressing. i would agree with 300-500k for the the month of feb
    02-19-13 01:12 PM
  15. kfh227's Avatar
    Canada + UK = 250K in my opinion. I think a low number is 200,000

    This guy is saying everywhere else it was released that only 50K-100K unit shipped? Really?

    Actually, thinkinabout about it, I don't know that he is that far off. Thing I don't understand is that based on rumors, there have probably been 2-3 million units produced at this point by BBRYs manufacturing. Where did they all go?
    02-19-13 01:54 PM
  16. Bugmapper's Avatar
    . Thing I don't understand is that based on rumors, there have probably been 2-3 million units produced at this point by BBRYs manufacturing. Where did they all go?
    My guess would be that they are stockpiling a significant portion of their production for US market introduction. Other markets will tolerate a restricted supply, but US consumers will insist on seeing the boxes on the shelves, not promises of "we are getting more in next week". (IMHO)
    02-19-13 02:24 PM
  17. La Emperor's Avatar
    The market does not seem to agree with this low ball expectation. It's been holding up with lower volume, though.
    Besides it may really work well to BBRY's favor once they released their actual numbers. If it's a few hundred K, higher than the 300K then this thing will explode.

    Someone is being setup here. Someone wants those 129Million shorts to stay put until reporting day.
    Just remember Netflix...
    bungaboy likes this.
    02-19-13 02:29 PM
  18. Zarpan's Avatar
    One key thing to look at is the wording of the analyst note. I haven't seen Canaccord's original note, but all the reporting seems to talk about shipments. Sell-through is the number of units that end-user customers actually purchase. Shipments are the number of units that carriers and stores purchase. These numbers can differ quite substantially, as BlackBerry had cumulatively shipped more than 10 million units more than sell-through at one point in the past.

    300,000 units may be in the reasonable range for sell-through given that the Z10 is only available in some countries, and most of those for less than a month by the time the quarter ends.

    However, 300,000 units is quite low for shipments. I believe BlackBerry would be able to count a unit as shipped once it leaves its warehouses towards a customer's warehouse. So in addition to sell-through, you'd be able to add in-store inventory, customer in-warehouse inventory, plus anything en-route to a customer as of March 2nd.

    Channel inventory for Nokia, Samsung, and Apple has tended to be around 3-6 weeks of sales. So the potential extra shipments to cover channel inventory could be very substantial. Not to mention there is the potential for shipments to go out in this quarter to countries that are launching in March.

    So I think the shipment figure is likely to be quite underestimated for this quarter. Sell-through is going to be more important in terms of determining the Z10's success, but we won't have lots of data for that until the following quarter.

    As well, Canaccord seemingly did some interesting math in managing to cut their BB10 shipment projections by 1.45 million, yet only increase their FY13 loss projections by 8 cents. That would imply that a BB10 unit would contribute about $40 in margins, unless they tweaked other parts of their model to get to their target number.
    bungaboy likes this.
    02-19-13 04:53 PM
  19. BBNation's Avatar
    Here is few points to consider:
    - Personally I do not disgree with this estimates as the original prediction included US but we all know not a single US sell will be included in this quaeter
    - BB will sell millions in US during next quarter as it will have full quarter and companies/goverments buy bulk.
    - Enterprises just do not buy new phones/systems on the first day or month. They go thru process that can take months before they commit to purchase. The US govs, companies and non-us companies will be buying within next 6 monhts.
    - Retail in developed countries been weak lately and it will for while.
    - Retails in developing nation is few months away as BB7 still selling well. BB will not be pushing bb10 fast in Africa, South asian countries.
    02-19-13 11:46 PM
  20. joe.miller's Avatar
    Smartphone growth has stalled in Europe and North America ..basically we are talking about replacing existing phones for the next year.
    If you look at the North American mobile phone market, nearly 60% of consumers own a basic feature phone, not a smartphone. The smartphone market is not remotely close to being saturated.
    02-20-13 09:15 AM
  21. Bbnivende's Avatar
    If you look at the North American mobile phone market, nearly 60% of consumers own a basic feature phone, not a smartphone. The smartphone market is not remotely close to being saturated.

    "Stalled" maybe not quite right. The market in the USA has matured. Maybe the proper description would be creeping. Especially for the market the Z10 is in.


    Interesting article:
    US Smartphone Market - Business Insider
    02-20-13 09:50 AM
  22. cgk's Avatar
    If you look at the North American mobile phone market, nearly 60% of consumers own a basic feature phone, not a smartphone. The smartphone market is not remotely close to being saturated.
    Actually it is starting to appear that this group do not want to swop, they don't need or want a smartphone so it is arguable how many more switch.

    Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk HD
    02-20-13 10:25 AM
  23. silversun10's Avatar
    02-20-13 10:41 AM
  24. tim11's Avatar
    How can you say 'with 95% certainty there would be at the very least 500,000 shipped'? What information are you basing this off of? Please elaborate.
    02-20-13 11:11 AM
  25. Tinomane's Avatar
    Bolus breath just posted this on the yahoo message boards and it makes a lot of sense. These analysts are severely underestimating sales. Which bodes well for mar. earnings report.


    Here is my unscientific channel check

    Stores in Canada
    Rogers 450
    Bell Canada 2000
    Telus 113
    Total: 2563

    U.K. Stores
    Phones4U 600
    Vodaphone 365
    Carphone Warehouse 794
    EE (Orange + T Mobile) 700
    O2 462
    Total: 2921

    Grand Total: 5484 stores in Canada + U.K.
    5484 x 1 phone sold per store per day x 26 average selling days in February = 142,584
    If 2 phones per store per day sold = 285168. Insert your own number. This takes no pre-orders into consideration or tier 2 carriers or other independant phone resellers.

    Now add in any enterprise + government purchases, plus additional February sales into UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, France, lebanon, India, Nigeria, maybe Germany and Spain. I'm sure I'm missing a few, but you get the picture.

    They are on track to sell over 2,000,000 BB7 devices worldwide in February based on 6.9 million phones sold in the previous quarter. 300,000 BB10's in February? Really?!
    02-20-13 11:24 AM
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