01-04-16 11:09 PM
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  1. sorinv's Avatar
    It would seem so, though I've never actually seen the BlackBerry 10 numbers actually broken out. That said, I don't need to tell you obviously that with the write down (not write off), those units were sold at a discount/probably a loss and the model obviously wouldn't be sustainable to maintain.

    For example, suppose they sold 5 million Z10s at $200 a pop ASP. Hot damn! That's a billion in revenue!

    But what if it cost them $320 to build each one on average? Well suddenly they've spent $1.6 billion on inventory and are $600M in the hole even before they've spent any money on anything else like marketing, sales, returns, customer service etc.

    Now suppose they've sold a million passports and privs at an ASP of $450, and their average costs are $320. Now all of a sudden, they're $130,000,000 ahead.

    My point is that it's entirely possible to have a small niche business that's profitable; while correspondingly pushing hard into an initiative that nearly kills the company.

    The Z10 was a debacle (and I say this as an owner of one) from a financial perspective. They stuffed the channel/warehouses in expectation of a huge launch and the sales didn't come. Then they had to sell units at a big loss in order to at least recoup part of their investment.

    I can see why Chen is being cautious with his inventory, even if it doesn't mean gangbuster numbers. BlackBerry really can't afford another massive write-down after the PlayBook or Z10. He spent many quarters clearing up that mess, which was very much under his predecessor's watch.

    It's totally true that nothing seems to have sold as well as the Z10. On the other hand, he also hasn't had to do massive write-downs on any releases that he's done either.
    There was a post here in 2014 with the total number of bB10 phones and their breakup between z10, q10, Q5, z30 and passport. It was estimated based on the number of app downloads from bbworld. At that time, I remember that there were more than 10M Z10. Even after Heinz left, the price of z10 never dropped below 300USD.

    You have to put things in perspective. Even the Playbook sold more than 200k units in one of its early quarters and there were more than 1.5M sold at some point. I think that in the Christmas 2012 quarter it outsold the ipad in UK.
    That data was posted somewhere on crackberry.

    Whatever you say, there were more than 1M z10 sold for significant profit in the first quarter of sales. Priv will never sell 10M units and has sold in far lower numbers than z10 did in its first three weeks.

    Yes, BlackBerry can survive with a niche product, but that could have been BB10 phones with larger numbers than Priv and BlackBerry would not have had to sell its sole and its customers' privacy to Google.

    If all we expect is 700k phones sold per quarter, than you are right. But Chen started with 2.5M per quarter, then dropped it to 1.25M, and likely next quarter the goal post will move again to less than 1M per quarter.

    Remember the IDC numbers reported by BBC last month?
    BlackBerry sold 10M phones in 2013 and 5.8M in 2014. Most of those were BB10 phones.
    Chen is aiming lower and lower every quarter. What is surprising to me is that he is allowed by the board to adjust his goal lower and lower every year.
    Last edited by sorinv; 12-19-15 at 03:57 AM.
    JeepBB, kirson, lift and 2 others like this.
    12-19-15 03:43 AM
  2. spiller's Avatar
    There was a post here in 2014 with the total number of bB10 phones and their breakup between z10, q10, Q5, z30 and passport. It was estimated based on the number of app downloads from bbworld. At that time, I remember that there were more than 10M Z10. Even after Heinz left, the price of z10 never dropped below 300USD.

    You have to put things in perspective. Even the Playbook sold more than 200k units in one of its early quarters and there were more than 1.5M sold at some point. I think that in the Christmas 2012 quarter it outsold the ipad in UK.
    That data was posted somewhere on crackberry.

    Whatever you say, there were more than 1M z10 sold for significant profit in the first quarter of sales. Priv will never sell 10M units and has sold in far lower numbers than z10 did in its first three weeks.

    Yes, BlackBerry can survive with a niche product, but that could have been BB10 phones with larger numbers than Priv and BlackBerry would not have had to sell its sole and its customers' privacy to Google.

    If all we expect is 700k phones sold per quarter, than you are right. But Chen started with 2.5M per quarter, then dropped it to 1.25M, and likely next quarter the goal post will move again to less than 1M per quarter.

    Remember the IDC numbers reported by BBC last month?
    BlackBerry sold 10M phones in 2013 and 5.8M in 2014. Most of those were BB10 phones.
    Chen is aiming lower and lower every quarter. What is surprising to me is that he is allowed by the board to adjust his goal lower and lower every year.
    Q3 was about managing the balance sheet. He couldn't build up substantial inventory as earnings would be taken and bashed as expense would far outweigh revenue. He has more time in Q4 to get sales for inventory he builds. He is putting out 5M as a breakeven number which is what he said he needs to stay in hardware. This is because Priv is much higher ASP /margin so breakeven has lower device target. Q4 numbers will be interesting.

    Posted via CB10
    12-19-15 10:36 AM
  3. eshropshire's Avatar
    There was a post here in 2014 with the total number of bB10 phones and their breakup between z10, q10, Q5, z30 and passport. It was estimated based on the number of app downloads from bbworld. At that time, I remember that there were more than 10M Z10. Even after Heinz left, the price of z10 never dropped below 300USD.

    You have to put things in perspective. Even the Playbook sold more than 200k units in one of its early quarters and there were more than 1.5M sold at some point. I think that in the Christmas 2012 quarter it outsold the ipad in UK.
    That data was posted somewhere on crackberry.

    Whatever you say, there were more than 1M z10 sold for significant profit in the first quarter of sales. Priv will never sell 10M units and has sold in far lower numbers than z10 did in its first three weeks.

    Yes, BlackBerry can survive with a niche product, but that could have been BB10 phones with larger numbers than Priv and BlackBerry would not have had to sell its sole and its customers' privacy to Google.

    If all we expect is 700k phones sold per quarter, than you are right. But Chen started with 2.5M per quarter, then dropped it to 1.25M, and likely next quarter the goal post will move again to less than 1M per quarter.

    Remember the IDC numbers reported by BBC last month?
    BlackBerry sold 10M phones in 2013 and 5.8M in 2014. Most of those were BB10 phones.
    Chen is aiming lower and lower every quarter. What is surprising to me is that he is allowed by the board to adjust his goal lower and lower every year.
    BB in early 2013 was operating on a vastly different scale than BB operates today. The employee count alone was probably 4x the size they have today. The install base of phones was north of 50 million. Even if they sold 1 million z10s in the 1st half of 2013 this was a major disappointment - actually it was disastrous. Also, the quality issues with BB10 1.0 led to large retuns. The BB BOARD put the company up for sale. BB started burning through their cash reserves and the company started mass layoffs.

    Selling HW is a much more expensive process than selling software. Getting your inventory wrong like BB did with the launch of BB10 can be fatal. much of your cash is tied up in inventory. Having a phone accounted for in your inventory that you plan to sell for $500+ having to be sold for under $250 causes major changes in a company's finances.

    Chen has completely changed the way BB builds phones. He limits BB'S exposure, and is limited by the exposure the 3rd party manufacturers are willing to risk. This does limit how big of success a new hot phone like the Priv can deliver, but it is what is required for BB at the end of 2016.
    12-19-15 12:34 PM
  4. sorinv's Avatar
    They sold 1M z10 in the first MONTH.
    They sold 10M in the first year, year and a half.
    Please do not rearrange the numbers.
    Read the IDC report.

    The z10 returns in the first month were because people refused to learn gestures. They were a radical change from BB0S or IoS.
    The 1M in the first month accounted for the returns.

    People who use an IPhone, like my daughter, or some electronics graduate students I know who who use iphones, have a hard time with the bb10 gestures. They hate bB10 gestures, just like I hate the iPhone interface.
    I find it not user friendly having to push a button.

    But eventually all the Z10 were sold, only temporarily written down.

    The Board just needed an excuse to change plans and decided to kill BB10 only 7-8 months after its launch, not allowing it to take off. That was short sighted and arguably irresponsible because BlackBerry today is insignificant even in the Canadian high tech landscape.
    From a flagship of Canadian industry, a symbol of Canada around the world, it has become an app shop for Google.

    There was nothing wrong with BB10.0. I had a z10 from launch, a Z30 by November 2013, and a Passport by October 2014.

    I still think the Z10 is the best looking BB10 phone. The only one that looked as polished on the outside as an Iphone. That's the only thing I appreciate about Apple products: exterior looks).
    The only problem with z10 was its battery.

    All updates to bb.10 were incremental, not fundamental.

    The layoffs are not an excuse for the greatly diminished revenues and the dramatic reduction in phone sales and users under Chen.
    Those are undeniable and due to him and the board alone.

    They inherited over 3B in cash when Chen took over.

    The cuts and layoffs were part and parcel of the change to software strategy. They are used to praise Chen and BlackBerry, but the 700000 phones in the last quarter would have been considered catastrophic even a year ago.

    Let's not rewrite history.

    Yes, BlackBerry is praised now for becoming a software company because analysts and investors have a different interest and agenda than BlackBerry phone users.

    Some of that software revenue was acquired with cash. It's not due to inside development under Chen's leadership. He can continue to buy revenue in the next quarter to meet his software sales goals, if need be, with that cash.

    Chen repeated yesterday in the Globe and Mail that hardware may discontinue after March. He is not confident that he can turn a profit on hardware with android.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...ticle27837728/

    This invalidates the decision to go android as a saviour.

    The goal of 5M phones per year was and still is easily achievable just with BB10 phones, especially if the app developing resources are redirected to BB10 apps from writing apps for android and Google.

    There was no reason to leave the impression that BB10 was on its way out, even if an android phone was introduced.

    Chen has been shooting BlackBerry in the foot repeatedly in the second half of 2015 in almost all his public appearances, casting shadows on its ability to provide privacy, robustness of its encryption (or at least if BlackBerry gives the keys to governments) its viability as a hardware company, and discouraging even its existing users to stay on as BlackBerry customers.
    The phone sales numbers prove that more so then any revenue results.

    Posted via CB10
    Last edited by sorinv; 12-19-15 at 10:51 PM.
    lift and techvisor like this.
    12-19-15 10:00 PM
  5. lift's Avatar
    They sold 1M z10 in the first MONTH.
    They sold 10M in the first year, year and a half.
    Please do not rearrange the numbers.
    Read the IDC report.

    The z10 returns in the first month were because people refused to learn gestures. They were a radical change from BB0S or IoS.
    The 1M in the first month accounted for the returns.

    People who use an IPhone, like my daughter, or some electronics graduate students I know who who use iphones, have a hard time with the bb10 gestures. They hate bB10 gestures, just like I hate the iPhone interface.
    I find it not user friendly having to push a button.

    But eventually all the Z10 were sold, only temporarily written down.

    The Board just needed an excuse to change plans and decided to kill BB10 only 7-8 months after its launch, not allowing it to take off. That was short sighted and arguably irresponsible because BlackBerry today is insignificant even in the Canadian high tech landscape.
    From a flagship of Canadian industry, a symbol of Canada around the world, it has become an app shop for Google.

    There was nothing wrong with BB10.0. I had a z10 from launch, a Z30 by November 2013, and a Passport by October 2014.

    I still think the Z10 is the best looking BB10 phone. The only one that looked as polished on the outside as an Iphone. That's the only thing I appreciate about Apple products: exterior looks).
    The only problem with z10 was its battery.

    All updates to bb.10 were incremental, not fundamental.

    The layoffs are not an excuse for the greatly diminished revenues and the dramatic reduction in phone sales and users under Chen.
    Those are undeniable and due to him and the board alone.

    They inherited over 3B in cash when Chen took over.

    The cuts and layoffs were part and parcel of the change to software strategy. They are used to praise Chen and BlackBerry, but the 700000 phones in the last quarter would have been considered catastrophic even a year ago.

    Let's not rewrite history.

    Yes, BlackBerry is praised now for becoming a software company because analysts and investors have a different interest and agenda than BlackBerry phone users.

    Some of that software revenue was acquired with cash. It's not due to inside development under Chen's leadership. He can continue to buy revenue in the next quarter to meet his software sales goals, if need be, with that cash.

    Chen repeated yesterday in the Globe and Mail that hardware may discontinue after March. He is not confident that he can turn a profit on hardware with android.

    BlackBerry's focus on software starting to pay off: CEO - The Globe and Mail

    This invalidates the decision to go android as a saviour.

    The goal of 5M phones per year was and still is easily achievable just with BB10 phones, especially if the app developing resources are redirected to BB10 apps from writing apps for android and Google.

    There was no reason to leave the impression that BB10 was on its way out, even if an android phone was introduced.

    Chen has been shooting BlackBerry in the foot repeatedly in the second half of 2015 in almost all his public appearances, casting shadows on its ability to provide privacy, robustness of its encryption (or at least if BlackBerry gives the keys to governments) its viability as a hardware company, and discouraging even its existing users to stay on as BlackBerry customers.
    The phone sales numbers prove that more so then any revenue results.

    Posted via CB10
    Great post, Thanks.
    techvisor likes this.
    12-19-15 11:07 PM
  6. DaSchwantz's Avatar
    It's good impassioned writing, but unfortunately fails to heed it's own advice about rewriting history. I became a BlackBerry fan based on the Playbook OS, owned a z10 the first week it was available, converted my wife, and we're now onto our sixth bb10 device (not getting a Priv).

    However, i've also been a shareholder since the stock hit the mid teens, and there's always been one critical aspect of the bb10 strategy and one major execution issue that's kept me worried.

    The critical 'flaw' of the bb10 strategy is that they had no replacement for the high margin recurring revenue from system access fees of bb7 devices still in use around the world. In fact, the more bb10 devices you sell, the less SAF you get. It's a catch 22 and it allowed the shorts, competitors, and critics to lock down on the storyline that BlackBerry was going bankrupt, even though there was zero debt at the time. This scared customers, devs, and IT departments away, becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. Still, BlackBerry and Heins held onto this silly idea that BlackBerry could just adopt Apple's business model for bb10 and make it work, while ignoring their core business client.

    The major execution issue was essentially sloppiness, everywhere you looked. Missed deadlines, poor decisions / judgement (bad inventory control, bad design decisions -insufficient RAM, battery - poor prioritization - e.g unified BES12-like product needed to be on the radar right from the beginning, etc etc), poor marketing, hubris, denial, the list goes on. It reeked of too much middle management and a lack of top down vision. Yet nothing was being done to stop the bleeding, again, building onto the self-fulfilling prophecy. If the company had just faced into the reality of needing to reinvent itself right from the start, and had incorporated a Chen-like approach at that time, bb10 would now be bigger than it is, and fewer employees would have been let go.

    Still, I agree with your points about Chen himself needing to show more support for hardware, and bb10 in particular. He needed to recreate the storyline, for sure, but don't keep telling everyone you're ready to ditch it all on a moment's notice...it undermines sales, and (again), creates a self-fulfilling prophecy. But aside from this, his actions with the company's turnaround have been masterly. Despite the pain, everything has been necessary. And I'm talking as someone who comes from K-W and has a number of friends who were laid off.

    The fate of bb10 device sales was sealed before Chen ever arrived. As a long-time contrarian investor specializing on turnarounds, one thing I can assure you. Without Chen, bb10 would now be gone and BlackBerry would have been sold off for parts by some US hedge fund or corporate raider. Chen is now close to plugging all the holes, and Priv is a critical part of how to do that with hardware.. Bb10 may become more of an enterprise focused platform, but at least it's still alive, and within a (soon to be) profitable hardware division. Now it's time to see a new device!

    Cheers.

    Posted via CB10
    Last edited by DaSchwantz; 12-20-15 at 08:04 AM.
    Shanerredflag and Bay 13 like this.
    12-20-15 03:09 AM
  7. SeeBeeEss's Avatar
    "Can the Priv save Blackberry? We'll know on Friday."

    Which Friday?
    12-20-15 08:11 AM
  8. world traveler and former ceo's Avatar
    It's good impassioned writing, but unfortunately fails to heed it's own advice about rewriting history. I became a BlackBerry fan based on the Playbook OS, owned a z10 the first week it was available, converted my wife, and we're now onto our sixth bb10 device (not getting a Priv).

    However, i've also been a shareholder since the stock hit the mid teens, and there's always been one critical aspect of the bb10 strategy and one major execution issue that's kept me worried.

    The critical 'flaw' of the bb10 strategy is that they had no replacement for the high margin recurring revenue from system access fees of bb7 devices still in use around the world. In fact, the more bb10 devices you sell, the less SAF you get. It's a catch 22 and it allowed the shorts, competitors, and critics to lock down on the storyline that BlackBerry was going bankrupt, even though there was zero debt at the time. This scared customers, devs, and IT departments away, becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. Still, BlackBerry and Heins held onto this silly idea that BlackBerry could just adopt Apple's business model for bb10 and make it work, while ignoring their core business client.

    The major execution issue was essentially sloppiness, everywhere you looked. Missed deadlines, poor decisions / judgement (bad inventory control, bad design decisions -insufficient RAM, battery - poor prioritization - e.g unified BES12-like product needed to be on the radar right from the beginning, etc etc), poor marketing, hubris, denial, the list goes on. It reeked of too much middle management and a lack of top down vision. Yet nothing was being done to stop the bleeding, again, building onto the self-fulfilling prophecy. If the company had just faced into the reality of needing to reinvent itself right from the start, and had incorporated a Chen-like approach at that time, bb10 would now be bigger than it is, and fewer employees would have been let go.

    Still, I agree with your points about Chen himself needing to show more support for hardware, and bb10 in particular. He needed to recreate the storyline, for sure, but don't keep telling everyone you're ready to ditch it all on a moment's notice...it undermines sales, and (again), creates a self-fulfilling prophecy. But aside from this, his actions with the company's turnaround have been masterly. Despite the pain, everything has been necessary. And I'm talking as someone who comes from K-W and has a number of friends who were laid off.

    The fate of bb10 device sales was sealed before Chen ever arrived. As a long-time contrarian investor specializing on turnarounds, one thing I can assure you. Without Chen, bb10 would now be gone and BlackBerry would have been sold off for parts by some US hedge fund or corporate raider. Chen is now close to plugging all the holes, and Priv is a critical part of how to do that with hardware.. Bb10 may become more of an enterprise focused platform, but at least it's still alive, and within a (soon to be) profitable hardware division. Now it's time to see a new device!

    Cheers.

    Posted via CB10
    While I do understand your thinking and agree in most part, BlackBerry IS moving to replace the old System Access Fees with new software and services.. it's taken a long time but it's happening!

    As far as device strategy, as a diehard blackberry user and current Passport user, I support completely Chen's strategy to branch out into Andriod and seek partners such as Google,, and others, going forward. In no way has he said that the Blackberry OS would be discontinued but they must get back to profitability on all products and services... including devices.

    His strategy to turn around the company is working.... patience will be rewarded.



    Posted via CB10
    12-20-15 08:39 AM
  9. JeepBB's Avatar
    "Can the Priv save Blackberry? We'll know on Friday."

    Which Friday?
    <checks calendar> ... LOL

    BB's next earnings report will be made on Friday, 1st April 2016! That's April Fools Day in the UK.

    You couldn't make this stuff up!

    To continue on a serious note, the Priv's story will be written on that date (IMO). The Priv will have been on sale for 4 months, so no excuses. If sales are still sliding, and the Priv isn't making significant headway towards the 5M device sales target... then it's over.
    12-20-15 10:12 AM
  10. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    Dead...IYO you mean, right?

    you've been made privy to my thoughts.
    12-20-15 02:33 PM
  11. Publisher1963's Avatar
    They sold 1M z10 in the first MONTH.


    There was nothing wrong with BB10.0. I had a z10 from launch,

    Posted via CB10
    I cannot disagree with you more...! Probably the most 'unready' OS ever 'launched'. A shame; BB10 is probably now the best phone OS ever...!

    UnderPRIVileged - I'm sticking with BB10
    12-22-15 01:24 PM
  12. crackberry_geek's Avatar
    I don't hate the Priv as I have never tried one. I have used and tested various Android devices in the past and did not care for them. As a Canadian and user of BlackBerry devices, I certainly don't want to see the iconic Canadian company fail. However, I will still not buy an Android-based phone from them - or anyone else - at this point in time in Android's development. It is possible that one day Android will develop into the kind of operating system I would use. That day is not today and so today I would buy a BB10, Windows or iOS device first - and yes, I know they all have their issues too! Bottom line is that if BlackBerry only makes Android-based devices, they have lost me as a customer n the foreseeable future. Although I am only one person and my business may not matter much, there are others like me who do not care for the Android OS and we can all hope that BlackBerry will gain more customers than they lose in the switch from BB10 to Android, although I personally doubt that the net gain will be enough to save the handset division. Exacerbating the issue for BlackBerry is the fact that many (once) loyal BlackBerry customers are feeling that they may have been "PlayBooked" once again. It's a mess!
    You may be only one person sir... but your words echo what many, MANY of us feel.

    Chen has ignored us for short term gain.

    By this time next year the farce will be painfully obvious to all.

    Posted via CB10
    lift and techvisor like this.
    12-22-15 01:29 PM
  13. DaSchwantz's Avatar
    While I do understand your thinking and agree in most part, BlackBerry IS moving to replace the old System Access Fees with new software and services.. it's taken a long time but it's happening!

    As far as device strategy, as a diehard blackberry user and current Passport user, I support completely Chen's strategy to branch out into Andriod and seek partners such as Google,, and others, going forward. In no way has he said that the Blackberry OS would be discontinued but they must get back to profitability on all products and services... including devices.

    His strategy to turn around the company is working.... patience will be rewarded.



    Posted via CB10
    Well, yeah, but I'm saying that this strategic path Chen has taken us on needed to be embraced right from the start of bb10 deployment. Others seem to be trying to argue that bb10 (devices, ecosystem, etc) just needed more support, but IMHO that kind of thinking is based on a flawed business model. Trying to compete directly with Apple and Google in the consumer space was never going to work. All considered, bb10 is by far the best OS out there, but assuming that regular consumers around the world will make their decisions based on that alone (particularly when thing are late, and a bit rough at launch, even though they had years, and a test product [called the playbook] to perfect it) is hubris, or denial, or both. Betting the company (via massive inventories / production commitments) on that kind of thing when you know your margins are too thin to replace the margins on your shrinking recurring revenue is colossally irresponsible.

    But yes, the turnaround is working, finally. I'm optimistic than Chen will find a place for bb10, even if it costs more. I will pay more, but only if it brings the runtime up to date. I will also pay more for built for bb10 apps (I buy most of them already, and never use them), for simple cross platform BBM videochat, and for third party Google Play patches/hacks. Normal consumers won't go to these lengths, so I have to wait for the 'Prosumer' strategy to take hold. Right now it's all Priv. Okay fine, then give me a bb10-based Priv with an up to date runtime I can pay for... :-)

    Posted via CB10
    12-22-15 06:02 PM
  14. eshropshire's Avatar
    I cannot disagree with you more...! Probably the most 'unready' OS ever 'launched'. A shame; BB10 is probably now the best phone OS ever...!

    UnderPRIVileged - I'm sticking with BB10
    I agree. This is either the most forgiving user on the planet or a case of blocking a bad memory. BB10 1.x was a disaster for BB, launched too late, but still not close to ready. The poor quality killed any chance of BB10 being successful. Almost impossible to make a great second impression. By the time BB10 was ready with 2.1, the company was fighting just to survive. Major layoffs just to end the cash burn. Blackberry's image was so tarnished by then no amount of marketing was going to make a difference until they stopped the major cash bleeding.
    12-23-15 06:58 PM
  15. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    I agree. This is either the most forgiving user on the planet or a case of blocking a bad memory. BB10 1.x was a disaster for BB, launched too late, but still not close to ready. The poor quality killed any chance of BB10 being successful. Almost impossible to make a great second impression. By the time BB10 was ready with 2.1, the company was fighting just to survive. Major layoffs just to end the cash burn. Blackberry's image was so tarnished by then no amount of marketing was going to make a difference until they stopped the major cash bleeding.
    Sadly I think they are repeating those mistakes with the PRIV..... how many Carriers will consider the next BlackBerry Android device?

    The PRIV is overpriced, it's plastic in a metal and glass world, it's software wasn't perfect, there still "seems" to be a lot of returns for the number of devices being sold. Even reviewers got bad units....

    But we are still a long way from really KNOWING, if the PRIV (or something) will save BlackBerry.
    lift, JeepBB and techvisor like this.
    12-28-15 09:34 AM
  16. crackberry_geek's Avatar
    There was a post here in 2014 with the total number of bB10 phones and their breakup between z10, q10, Q5, z30 and passport. It was estimated based on the number of app downloads from bbworld. At that time, I remember that there were more than 10M Z10. Even after Heinz left, the price of z10 never dropped below 300USD.

    You have to put things in perspective. Even the Playbook sold more than 200k units in one of its early quarters and there were more than 1.5M sold at some point. I think that in the Christmas 2012 quarter it outsold the ipad in UK.
    That data was posted somewhere on crackberry.

    Whatever you say, there were more than 1M z10 sold for significant profit in the first quarter of sales. Priv will never sell 10M units and has sold in far lower numbers than z10 did in its first three weeks.

    Yes, BlackBerry can survive with a niche product, but that could have been BB10 phones with larger numbers than Priv and BlackBerry would not have had to sell its sole and its customers' privacy to Google.

    If all we expect is 700k phones sold per quarter, than you are right. But Chen started with 2.5M per quarter, then dropped it to 1.25M, and likely next quarter the goal post will move again to less than 1M per quarter.

    Remember the IDC numbers reported by BBC last month?
    BlackBerry sold 10M phones in 2013 and 5.8M in 2014. Most of those were BB10 phones.
    Chen is aiming lower and lower every quarter. What is surprising to me is that he is allowed by the board to adjust his goal lower and lower every year.
    Spot on!

    The niche market Chen now aims for is so much less than what could have been. BB10 was FINALLY mature on his watch (thanks in no part to him). Yet he chose to ignore it to try and compete with Samsung.

    Amazing to me how for so long the Chen-gang spewed that we can't advertise because we can never compete with Apple and Samsung.

    Yet now... the thing to do is attempt to compete with Samsung?

    Makes no sense at all.

    Well... actually it only makes sense if one's goal is a temporary spike in BBRY so they can be acquired and one can get his golden parachute.

    Posted via CB10
    lift likes this.
    12-28-15 10:05 AM
  17. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    Spot on!

    The niche market Chen now aims for is so much less than what could have been. BB10 was FINALLY mature on his watch (thanks in no part to him). Yet he chose to ignore it to try and compete with Samsung.

    Amazing to me how for so long the Chen-gang spewed that we can't advertise because we can never compete with Apple and Samsung.

    Yet now... the thing to do is attempt to compete with Samsung?

    Makes no sense at all.

    Well... actually it only makes sense if one's goal is a temporary spike in BBRY so they can be acquired and one can get his golden parachute.

    Posted via CB10
    BB10 was maturing... and it was dying. Every quarter sales were dropping by 30%. Granted they didn't market BB10 devices, and they didn't release the device that most everyone wanted...... a flagship all touch.

    But what most of us don't know, and the Chen did know..... was how many unique BB10 users there were out there. How many of the new phones were attracting new customers, and how many were just joining some BlackBerry fans collection. And how many BES/BBOS/BB10 users were leaving the platform each quarter.... BB10 was headed down a deadened road, long before Chen jumped to Android. Most here just didn't want to see it.... many still refuse to believe it. But that doesn't change the fact that Chen and company could see it.

    Is Android a long term solution.... probable not, but they had to try something else.
    12-29-15 08:14 AM
  18. crackberry_geek's Avatar
    BB10 was maturing... and it was dying. Every quarter sales were dropping by 30%. Granted they didn't market BB10 devices, and they didn't release the device that most everyone wanted...... a flagship all touch.

    But what most of us don't know, and the Chen did know..... was how many unique BB10 users there were out there. How many of the new phones were attracting new customers, and how many were just joining some BlackBerry fans collection. And how many BES/BBOS/BB10 users were leaving the platform each quarter.... BB10 was headed down a deadened road, long before Chen jumped to Android. Most here just didn't want to see it.... many still refuse to believe it. But that doesn't change the fact that Chen and company could see it.

    Is Android a long term solution.... probable not, but they had to try something else.
    The answer is wrapped up in your first paragraph. And it is so painfully obvious that it is hard to fathom how the smartest CEO in the world couldn't have figured that out.

    A flagship all-touch... so obviously what most everyone wanted... would have cost a pittance in R&D compared to the Priv.

    And how is it that BlackBerry now has budget to advertise (when hardware is still supposedly losing money) but they couldn't advertise BB10 since the stupid Super Bowl ad?

    As for the second paragraph of your post... of course a product won't attract new customers if none of said customers even know you exist. Such an obvious problem... why is that so hard to understand?

    Things would have ABSOLUTELY been so very differently positive now.

    Instead BlackBerry chose to steal defeat from the jaws of victory.

    Posted via CB10
    lift likes this.
    12-29-15 10:05 AM
  19. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    The answer is wrapped up in your first paragraph. And it is so painfully obvious that it is hard to fathom how the smartest CEO in the world couldn't have figured that out.

    A flagship all-touch... so obviously what most everyone wanted... would have cost a pittance in R&D compared to the Priv.

    And how is it that BlackBerry now has budget to advertise (when hardware is still supposedly losing money) but they couldn't advertise BB10 since the stupid Super Bowl ad?

    As for the second paragraph of your post... of course a product won't attract new customers if none of said customers even know you exist. Such an obvious problem... why is that so hard to understand?

    Things would have ABSOLUTELY been so very differently positive now.

    Instead BlackBerry chose to steal defeat from the jaws of victory.

    Posted via CB10
    Sorry.... but I think that a all touch superphone, wouldn't have sold any better than the Passport. It would have still been a BB10 phone with limited app support. And any real success, might have only forced Google to slam the door shut on SNAP and Cobalts access.... only further dooming BB10. Chen was just as frustrated about the whole app situation as many BB10 users. But it was clear that without their own ecosystem, that BB10 was not going to appeal to enough users to make it a viable platform.

    As for marketing and advertising.... that went on until at least the first month of American football in September (at least six months after that Super Bowl ad). I remember BlackBerry ads in both collage and pro games that Fall, but at that point the app situation was probable at it's worse. The android runtime was being locked and only sideloaded apps that were installed using a developer key would work. So those marketing dollars were basically wasted.

    The mistake was not paying attention to the problems with the PlayBook..... lack of Apps. They should have switched to Android at that point. Cause Microsoft has shown that throwing money at developers isn't a long term solution, nor is having a 100 Million users on your platform.
    techvisor likes this.
    12-29-15 10:18 AM
  20. lift's Avatar
    Sorry.... but I think that a all touch superphone, wouldn't have sold any better than the Passport. It would have still been a BB10 phone with limited app support.
    I disagree. I agree with the limited BB10 app support, which I don't see getting better with the move to android. But, an all touch high end device running BB10 would have sold better than the Priv. The reason I say that and I have been saying this for a long time is that even though the Priv runs android, there are two major problems with it for the general public (not the CrackBerry or Blackberry loyalists). First problem is the BlackBerry name. It's damaged beyond repair in my opinion. Second is the Priv is a slider. There is such a small niche market for a slider that it is just beyond ridiculous to think that the Priv is going to sell in any kind of large numbers.
    An all touch BB10 high end device would sell well if priced well. Then BlackBerry could have taken that high end all touch BB10 device and made it available running android as an option.
    12-29-15 03:50 PM
  21. sorinv's Avatar
    I agree. This is either the most forgiving user on the planet or a case of blocking a bad memory. BB10 1.x was a disaster for BB, launched too late, but still not close to ready. The poor quality killed any chance of BB10 being successful. Almost impossible to make a great second impression. By the time BB10 was ready with 2.1, the company was fighting just to survive. Major layoffs just to end the cash burn. Blackberry's image was so tarnished by then no amount of marketing was going to make a difference until they stopped the major cash bleeding.
    I don't understand. I had BB10 from launch and I do not remember anything major that was wrong with bB10 on launch and all the updates were incremental. Really minor changes.
    Of course all OS's get better with updates, although 10.3 took away flash, so now we have to use Zeus to watch videos on most desktop websites.
    12-30-15 02:08 AM
  22. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    I don't understand. I had BB10 from launch and I do not remember anything major that was wrong with bB10 on launch and all the updates were incremental. Really minor changes.
    Of course all OS's get better with updates, although 10.3 took away flash, so now we have to use Zeus to watch videos on most desktop websites.
    It's best to use emoji to help people know when you are kidding....

    You are kidding right?
    JeepBB likes this.
    12-30-15 08:52 AM
  23. huwit's Avatar
    Well, coming from Android, I can assure you that bb10.0 or 10.1 wasn't bad at all. And with all the improvements over the years it has grown to be arguably the best os for business. But hey, the masses prefer to bo googelyzed...
    crackberry_geek likes this.
    12-30-15 09:36 AM
  24. conite's Avatar
    But hey, the masses prefer to bo googelyzed...
    The masses only want to carry one device and need critical apps for work AND apps for media consumption and pleasure.
    12-30-15 11:58 AM
  25. DaSchwantz's Avatar
    All this discussion is still missing the point, in my opinion. An Android flagship phone has better margins than a bb10 phone. Trying to ramp up bb10 on its own with a high specs, high volume, high inventory, major marketed all-touch phone following the z10 production model at that particular point in time would for sure have killed the entire company (along with bb10) so fast it would have made your head spin. Maybe MSFT could afford to see if this kind of strategy works, but BBRY just couldn't. Maybe if BBRY rebuilt a high margin revenue stream to replace the shrinking bbos licenses a lot sooner, they could have afforded to amp up the z30 specs a bit more, increased production and marketed the hell out of it to try to prevent the kind of price reductions we saw from happening, but that's not the way things played out. I still hold to the opinion that the Priv is helping to save the hardware division, and therefore bb10, from extinction. Those who want to pay LESS for a flagship bb10 all-touch phone are living in magic-unicorn-land. I want to pay MORE, because I know that's the only way it will have top specs, full support, AND an updated runtime.

    Posted via CB10
    Last edited by DaSchwantz; 12-30-15 at 07:02 PM.
    12-30-15 06:48 PM
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