1. Zarpan's Avatar
    For anyone who is interested, I took a crack at updating Where RIM's subscribers are - The Globe and Mail based on additional information that I came across. Some of it is guesstimates or extrapolation, but I can provide sources or explanations for most of the numbers if there are specific questions.

    Indonesia 17%
    United States 12%
    Mexico 9%
    United Kingdom 6%
    South Africa 6%
    Venezuela 6%
    Saudi Arabia 5%
    Canada 4%
    Eastern Europe 4%
    Brazil 3%
    Spain 3%
    France 3%
    Nigeria 3%
    UAE 3%
    Other Western Europe 3%
    Italy 2%
    Philippines 2%
    India 2%
    Colombia 2%
    Argentina 1%
    Other Gulf 1%
    Other Asia 1%
    Germany 1%
    Other 1%
    03-23-13 04:07 AM
  2. Omnitech's Avatar
    For anyone who is interested, I took a crack at updating Where RIM's subscribers are - The Globe and Mail based on additional information that I came across. Some of it is guesstimates or extrapolation, but I can provide sources or explanations for most of the numbers if there are specific questions.
    Thanks, though I think that whenever someone posts a bunch of specific numbers like that where some numbers are not based on actual measurements but by "guessing", the real sources should be enumerated and the "guesses" should be labeled as-such along with references to how those numbers were arrived-at.
    03-23-13 06:35 AM
  3. Zarpan's Avatar
    Thanks, though I think that whenever someone posts a bunch of specific numbers like that where some numbers are not based on actual measurements but by "guessing", the real sources should be enumerated and the "guesses" should be labeled as-such along with references to how those numbers were arrived-at.
    I agree, but it's lengthy to do it due to the number of sources and calculations. I guess I could put it down in pieces since it will take a long time.

    Indonesia:

    Telcomsel: 5.8 million BlackBerry subscribers - Telkomsel Moves 3,000 BlackBerry Z10s a Week After Launch | The Jakarta Globe

    Indosat: 2.6 million BlackBerry subs - Operators Expect Higher BlackBerry Subscribers - Indonesia Finance Today

    XL Axiata: 3.2 million BlackBerry subs - First-Tier Operators Launch BB Z10 - Indonesia Finance Today - need to look at the Google cache of this page since you need a subscription otherwise.

    These three Indonesian telecoms combined equal 11.6 million BlackBerry subs. They represent about 85% of the Indonesian market - Indonesia: Answering the Call for Competition

    Therefore the whole Indonesian market may be up to 13.9 million BlackBerry subs, although I just rounded it down to 13 million to be conservative since I'm not sure how much the smaller telecom players promote BlackBerry there.

    United States:

    7.6 million BlackBerry subs calculated from - comScore Reports January 2013 U.S. Smartphone Subscriber Market Share - comScore, Inc

    I actually used 9 million as the number for the US, since comScore's Canadian numbers for mobile subscribers were lower than the official numbers from the CRTC by about 20-25%, so their survey methodology may lead to undercounting in other markets.

    Mexico:

    7 million BlackBerry subscribers, estimated from
    News - Windows makes progress in Europe - Kantar Worldpanel - download the market shares table.

    Kantar has some other market share tables, which have shown BlackBerry to have around 30% market share during several periods over the last couple years.

    Mexico has 20% smartphone penetration Smartphone penetration: 24% in Argentina, 20% in Mexico, 14% in BrazilRCR Wireless News Americas

    With 115 million people, 20% penetration = 23 million smartphones. 30% market share = 7 million BlackBerry subs.
    03-23-13 06:45 PM
  4. Zarpan's Avatar
    UK:

    5 million BlackBerry subs - calculated from EU5 Smartphone Penetration Reaches 55 Percent in October 2012 - comScore, Inc and applying an adjustment for comScore as outlined in the US section above.

    South Africa:

    5 million BlackBerry subs - BlackBerry vs iPhone vs Android in South Africa shows 2.7 million BlackBerry subs on Vodacom, Vodacom was estimated to have 50% market share.

    MTN ends popular BlackBerry deal | Telecoms & Technology | BDlive talks about there being around 5 million BlackBerry subs in South Africa.

    Venezuela:

    5 million BlackBerry subs according to the state telco: Conatel contabiliz 12,5 millones de usuarios de Internet en Venezuela | AVN
    03-23-13 06:59 PM
  5. Zarpan's Avatar
    Saudi Arabia:

    4 million BlackBerry subs:

    Survey showed 13% of online Saudi Arabians used a BlackBerry as their primary mobile phone
    BlackBerry Z10 Piques Interest in Middle East, But Will It Peak Sales?

    Apparently there are 33 million smartphones in Saudi Arabia - Smartphone market growth in Saudi Arabia - Portio Research, so if BlackBerry has a 13% share of secondary mobile phones too, then they should reach over 4 million subs. Figured that non-online Saudi Arabians wouldn't use smartphones, so excluded those from the calculations.

    Canada:

    3 million BlackBerry subs:

    Calculated from comScore: 34% of smartphones in Canada are running Android (June 2012 numbers) | MobileSyrup.com, with the adjustment for the difference in total wireless subs between comScore and official numbers.

    Eastern Europe:

    3 million BlackBerry subs:

    Windows: Gaining OS Market Share in Europe in 2012 and Beyond - Portio Research pegged BlackBerry's market share in Eastern Europe at between 7 to 11 percent.

    I think there are around 40 million smartphone users in Eastern Europe. GfK: 14% of phone owners in Central & Eastern Europe have a smartphone multiplied by around 300 million people.
    03-23-13 07:22 PM
  6. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    Wow...well done sir.

    Posted via CB10
    Bugmapper likes this.
    03-23-13 07:46 PM
  7. bungaboy's Avatar
    I applaud your efforts. Thank you very much Zarpan.

    Posted from my Z10 via C10
    Bugmapper likes this.
    03-23-13 07:54 PM
  8. Omnitech's Avatar
    I agree, but it's lengthy to do it due to the number of sources and calculations. I guess I could put it down in pieces since it will take a long time.
    Thanks for the details, those look like interesting articles in themselves.

    Re: Indonesia, are you extrapolating "number of subscriptions" from "number of Z10 sales"? Why?

    Re: Mexico, information I've seen suggests that BB marketshare there is about 50%, just barely passed up by Samsung this year I believe.
    03-23-13 10:21 PM
  9. Omnitech's Avatar
    Anyway, thanks for doing that work, clearly the effort of a real Crackberrian.
    03-23-13 10:24 PM
  10. pmccartney's Avatar
    According to this, 1 out of every 10 Canadians has a BlackBerry subscription?
    Living in Waterloo, I know a lot of people wit a BlackBerry but this number seems pretty high.

    Posted via CB10
    03-23-13 10:29 PM
  11. Zarpan's Avatar
    For Indonesia, the three main telcos generally provide regular updates on their subscriber numbers. The Z10 article just happened to include reporting on the overall BlackBerry subscriber base for the leading telecom company, so that's why that article is sourced.

    If you have a source for the Mexico information that would be very useful since I couldn't find anything good for that. I've had to base it on sales figures over the past two years in various Kantar Worldpanel reports.


    Thanks for the details, those look like interesting articles in themselves.

    Re: Indonesia, are you extrapolating "number of subscriptions" from "number of Z10 sales"? Why?

    Re: Mexico, information I've seen suggests that BB marketshare there is about 50%, just barely passed up by Samsung this year I believe.
    03-23-13 10:30 PM
  12. Omnitech's Avatar
    If you have a source for the Mexico information that would be very useful since I couldn't find anything good for that. I've had to base it on sales figures over the past two years in various Kantar Worldpanel reports.

    I believe the articles were originally in Spanish and I can't find the links right now in my browser history (probably on another machine) but I will try to look a little later.
    Zarpan likes this.
    03-23-13 10:58 PM
  13. Zarpan's Avatar
    According to this, 1 out of every 10 Canadians has a BlackBerry subscription?
    Living in Waterloo, I know a lot of people wit a BlackBerry but this number seems pretty high.

    Posted via CB10
    I think the number of smartphones in Canada is around 12 million, while BlackBerry's market share was at 27% in a couple of surveys (comScore and Ipsos Reid) done in the summer of 2012. Might have gone down some in the last 6 months prior to the Z10 launch, but total BlackBerry subs in Canada should still be in at least the 2.5-3 million range.

    So about 1 in every 10-13 Canadians or so.
    03-25-13 05:00 AM
  14. LigimatPerez's Avatar
    Hi,
    Thanks for sharing this. I'm currently working on an analysis piece on Blackberry in Venezuela. Do you know if that 6% is still true now a days? Thanks!
    Last edited by LigimatPerez; 02-07-14 at 02:48 PM.
    02-07-14 02:14 PM
  15. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Hi,
    Thanks for sharing this. I'm currently working on an analysis piece on Blackberry in Venezuela. Could you kindly provide the sources for the 6% attributed to this country? Thanks!
    This thread is almost a year old. Don't use this for your study.
    02-07-14 02:34 PM
  16. JeepBB's Avatar
    Hi,
    Thanks for sharing this. I'm currently working on an analysis piece on Blackberry in Venezuela. Could you kindly provide the sources for the 6% attributed to this country? Thanks!
    The original article is nearly a year old now. A lot has happened since, and those figures aren't a reflection of "now".

    Still, those historic figures may be what you want.

    You could also google for Kantar, ComScore and IDC. All do market surveys, quarterly I think, and have done for some time. Though, I don't know if you'll see a specific reference to Venezuela in their figures.
    02-07-14 02:38 PM
  17. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    I think the number of smartphones in Canada is around 12 million, while BlackBerry's market share was at 27% in a couple of surveys (comScore and Ipsos Reid) done in the summer of 2012. Might have gone down some in the last 6 months prior to the Z10 launch, but total BlackBerry subs in Canada should still be in at least the 2.5-3 million range.

    So about 1 in every 10-13 Canadians or so.
    Last fall, was about 19%

    comScore: Android has 43% of the smartphone market share in Canada | MobileSyrup.com

    Cool effort though! I love stuff like this. Was thinking of sharing the US Comscore trend chart I keep
    NDeLancie likes this.
    02-07-14 03:28 PM
  18. JeepBB's Avatar
    Cool effort though! I love stuff like this. Was thinking of sharing the US Comscore trend chart I keep
    You should.

    I was trying to find Canada's share last night to respond to a post... could I find it??? No!

    Google was no help, and Kantar and IDC don't consider Canada a measured market (aim any flak for that national slur at them, not me! ).
    02-07-14 03:48 PM
  19. lnichols's Avatar
    I think I remember reading in the last earnings report that North America accounted over 20% of the user base, I think actually oflvet 25%.

    Posted via CB10
    02-09-14 05:27 PM

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