10-03-15 12:50 PM
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  1. EchoTango's Avatar
    I'm expecting the quarter will be largely a wash with good earnings, but a poor outlook for Q3. I suspect the stock will drop but not much more than where it is today since we're already below book value now (sic). There's allot to be said for getting the bad news over with and moving on.

    One other major downward factor is most investors are underwater with this stock and I"m expecting we'll see a steady stream of tax loss selling until the end of the year.

    Look for an upward trend toward the end of January as we approach CES (major announcement forum) and the release of Playbook OS2.

    Just what I see in my crystal ball.......
    JBenn911 likes this.
    12-13-11 07:36 PM
  2. mustangv8's Avatar
    Oh yea, another 52 week low made again today. Funny how management still has no faith in the company. Where are the insider purchases or stock buybacks?
    a huge sign of no faith in their company. I am questioning myself as to whether there is any possible fraud in this company? Not making that declaration, but I have never seen a company with supposed free cash on hand, supposed book value of stock, and profitable get hit this way.
    12-13-11 08:06 PM
  3. grunt0300's Avatar
    I'm expecting the quarter will be largely a wash with good earnings, but a poor outlook for Q3. I suspect the stock will drop but not much more than where it is today since we're already below book value now (sic). There's allot to be said for getting the bad news over with and moving on.

    One other major downward factor is most investors are underwater with this stock and I"m expecting we'll see a steady stream of tax loss selling until the end of the year.

    Look for an upward trend toward the end of January as we approach CES (major announcement forum) and the release of Playbook OS2.

    Just what I see in my crystal ball.......
    A large sell-off will drive the stock down, as i've been saying. The only question is where will it bottom out? I stand by my prediction (around $7.)
    12-13-11 08:10 PM
  4. mustangv8's Avatar
    This makes sense. Thursday night earnings call will be remarkably bad. Not just the results, everyone knows they will be brutal. The tone will continue to be "We will release a new operating system next year called, uh, we'll get back to you, and new phones obsoleting the ones that are not selling, and CIOs will clamor to have our software manage devices from all manufacturers". Total out of touch, echo chamber predictions from the two co-CEOs. The lack of connection to reality will panic folks more than the numbers.

    Figure Thursday close $14.50 or so, $6 plunge at the open Friday to $8.50 and a slow slide throughout the day.

    Someone takes a major position late Friday or next week when it is $7, ousts the two fools, and sells the IP and other assets at close to book within 90 days. Nice profit, and someone like Google, Microsoft, Nokia, or HTC get some UI patents at a discount. The name and other marks can be sold independently, perhaps you'll see Samsung candy bar feature phone "Blackberries" as the free with contract or prepaid phone of choice mid-year.
    Absolutely not. You do not know how the market works. $6 plunge, ha. bad news is already priced in. Only way it drops over 10% is if there is an accounting fraud issue. earnings no matter how bad will not drop this another 20% after the warning already made. Don't you think the idea has been brought to attention of ousting the fools already? Duh, I'm sure idea has been out there since rimm was in the 30s at least. How is a major shareholder going to sell assets? Once again, you do not know about stocks. Should I go buy a share of McDonalds and force them to cut the price of fries by a dollar? That would be your logic of someone who thinks he knows about stocks.
    12-13-11 08:12 PM
  5. world traveler and former ceo's Avatar
    I'm expecting the quarter will be largely a wash with good earnings, but a poor outlook for Q3. I suspect the stock will drop but not much more than where it is today since we're already below book value now (sic). There's allot to be said for getting the bad news over with and moving on.

    One other major downward factor is most investors are underwater with this stock and I"m expecting we'll see a steady stream of tax loss selling until the end of the year.

    Look for an upward trend toward the end of January as we approach CES (major announcement forum) and the release of Playbook OS2.

    Just what I see in my crystal ball.......

    good analysis .. lots of tax loss selling this month . January and going into 2012 will see a sharp up tick.......
    12-13-11 08:12 PM
  6. mustangv8's Avatar
    New 52 week low ready to hit today
    12-14-11 08:28 AM
  7. sleepngbear's Avatar
    It ain't over yet. Get the plastic out ... tomorrow night is gonna be a blood bath.

    If you have any confidence at all in BB10, grab a crapload of RIMM Friday morning.
    12-14-11 09:09 AM
  8. OMGitworks's Avatar
    Here is what the market expects after the pre-announcement early this month. If they miss these lowered numbers they could fall even further. I doubt there will be much of an upside surprise. I would stay away from this stock unless it is money your can afford to lose. It could hit $10 as easily as $20 in the next 3 months. It is a true gamble at this point. Picking red or black on the roulette wheel is a better bet....

    TORONTO - Research In Motion Ltd., the maker of the BlackBerry, reports its latest financial results after the market closes Thursday as the company needs a formidable challenger to popular smartphones from Apple and other companies.

    WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Whether RIM gives any guidance about the launch of its next-generation BlackBerry 10 phones, formerly known as BBX.

    Analysts say RIM's future depends on the new software platform, but many of them expect the launch to be delayed until the second half of next year. RIM needs to come up with a compelling BlackBerry as U.S. users have moved on to flashier touch-screen phones such as Apple's iPhone and various competing models that run Google's Android software.

    RIM already said on Dec. 2 that it sold 14.1 million BlackBerrys in the fiscal third quarter, which ended Nov. 26. The company warned then that it will sell fewer phones in the current quarter despite the holiday shopping season.

    Peter Misek, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. in New York, said that if RIM reveals Thursday that it will ship no more than 12 million BlackBerrys in the current quarter, then the company needs to get its new phones out fast. Otherwise, RIM could lose money in future quarters as it continues to struggle to sell the current, stopgap models.

    Misek also said it will be a disaster if RIM loses subscribers or shows no growth.

    WHY IT MATTERS: Once an iconic brand, the BlackBerry is now struggling to compete. Although BlackBerrys are cheaper than some of their more popular rivals and remain popular internationally, RIM is struggling with delays in getting new phones out. In addition, its PlayBook tablet computer has been a dud, and its stock is at a five-year low. A company that was once worth more than $70 billion now has a market value of less than $9 billion.

    WHAT'S EXPECTED: RIM already said revenue and earnings in the third quarter were lower than previously projected, but not a surprise to analysts.

    RIM said it expects earnings at the "low to mid point" of the $1.20 to $1.40 per share it previously forecast. Analysts polled by FactSet on average expect $1.20 per share.

    The company expects revenue slightly below the $5.3 billion to $5.6 billion in its previous forecast. Analysts expect $5.23 billion.

    For current quarter, which ends in February, analysts polled by FactSet expect $5.07 billion in revenue and earnings of $1.15 per share.

    RIM, which is based in Waterloo, Ontario, also said on Dec. 2 that it wouldn't meet full-year earnings guidance of $5.25 to $6 per share, the third cut in a row.

    LAST YEAR'S QUARTER: RIM earned $911 million, or $1.74 per share, on revenue of $5.49 billion.
    12-14-11 09:22 AM
  9. palmless's Avatar
    Here is what the market expects after the pre-announcement early this month. If they miss these lowered numbers they could fall even further. I doubt there will be much of an upside surprise. I would stay away from this stock unless it is money your can afford to lose. It could hit $10 as easily as $20 in the next 3 months. It is a true gamble at this point. Picking red or black on the roulette wheel is a better bet....

    TORONTO - Research In Motion Ltd., the maker of the BlackBerry, reports its latest financial results after the market closes Thursday as the company needs a formidable challenger to popular smartphones from Apple and other companies.

    WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Whether RIM gives any guidance about the launch of its next-generation BlackBerry 10 phones, formerly known as BBX.

    Analysts say RIM's future depends on the new software platform, but many of them expect the launch to be delayed until the second half of next year. RIM needs to come up with a compelling BlackBerry as U.S. users have moved on to flashier touch-screen phones such as Apple's iPhone and various competing models that run Google's Android software.

    RIM already said on Dec. 2 that it sold 14.1 million BlackBerrys in the fiscal third quarter, which ended Nov. 26. The company warned then that it will sell fewer phones in the current quarter despite the holiday shopping season.

    Peter Misek, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. in New York, said that if RIM reveals Thursday that it will ship no more than 12 million BlackBerrys in the current quarter, then the company needs to get its new phones out fast. Otherwise, RIM could lose money in future quarters as it continues to struggle to sell the current, stopgap models.

    Misek also said it will be a disaster if RIM loses subscribers or shows no growth.

    WHY IT MATTERS: Once an iconic brand, the BlackBerry is now struggling to compete. Although BlackBerrys are cheaper than some of their more popular rivals and remain popular internationally, RIM is struggling with delays in getting new phones out. In addition, its PlayBook tablet computer has been a dud, and its stock is at a five-year low. A company that was once worth more than $70 billion now has a market value of less than $9 billion.

    WHAT'S EXPECTED: RIM already said revenue and earnings in the third quarter were lower than previously projected, but not a surprise to analysts.

    RIM said it expects earnings at the "low to mid point" of the $1.20 to $1.40 per share it previously forecast. Analysts polled by FactSet on average expect $1.20 per share.

    The company expects revenue slightly below the $5.3 billion to $5.6 billion in its previous forecast. Analysts expect $5.23 billion.

    For current quarter, which ends in February, analysts polled by FactSet expect $5.07 billion in revenue and earnings of $1.15 per share.

    RIM, which is based in Waterloo, Ontario, also said on Dec. 2 that it wouldn't meet full-year earnings guidance of $5.25 to $6 per share, the third cut in a row.

    LAST YEAR'S QUARTER: RIM earned $911 million, or $1.74 per share, on revenue of $5.49 billion.
    Agreed. ALL of this is already priced in. The Friday plummet will NOT be because RIM will fail to meet these expectations... RIM analysts already expect RIM to disappoint even from these modest estimates.

    The talk will focus on the demeanor and tone of the company. The "What, me worry?" attitude and "While Mobile Fusion will support non-Blackberry phones from various vendors, full functionality will be reserved for clients making a choice to select the only enterprise-ready solution, next year's BB10 phones" rhetoric will recall " " level of self-delusion.

    THAT will drive Friday's sell-off, not the disappointing financial results.
    12-14-11 10:32 AM
  10. TheMimic's Avatar
    Everyone "THINK" that all is already priced in but I disagree. Rim has a exception ability to make things seem not so bad, even with warning prior to earnings call and then COMPLETELY disappointing on the call. Another 15-20% drop friday morning would not be too surprising. It's lost 5-6% on some days without expectionally bad news. Why would anyone think it wouldn't drop significantly more? Book value isn't doing anything for them, as they have dipped well under it.
    JBenn911 likes this.
    12-14-11 03:38 PM
  11. TheMimic's Avatar
    Everyone "THINK" that all is already priced in but I disagree. Rim has a exception ability to make things seem not so bad, even with warning prior to earnings call and then COMPLETELY disappointing on the call. Another 15-20% drop friday morning would not be too surprising. It's lost 5-6% on some days without expectionally bad news. Why would anyone think it wouldn't drop significantly more? Book value isn't doing anything for them, as they have dipped well under it.
    Well 45 mins after earnings call and almost 7% down. Conference call in 15 mins. Let's see how bad the blood bath gets after that mitigated disaster. I expect nothing less than a 10% drop by tomorrow mornings open and that's being optimistic. I can see it being down 15% by early trading tomorrow.
    12-15-11 03:49 PM
  12. TheMimic's Avatar
    Everyone "THINK" that all is already priced in but I disagree. Rim has a exception ability to make things seem not so bad, even with warning prior to earnings call and then COMPLETELY disappointing on the call. Another 15-20% drop friday morning would not be too surprising. It's lost 5-6% on some days without expectionally bad news. Why would anyone think it wouldn't drop significantly more? Book value isn't doing anything for them, as they have dipped well under it.
    Well 45 mins after earnings call and almost 7% down. Conference call in 15 mins. Let's see how bad the blood bath gets after that mitigated disaster. I expect nothing less than a 10% drop by tomorrow mornings open and that's being optimistic. I can see it being down 15% by early trading tomorrow.

    150k PBs sold with the ******** deal they gave at 199$... that is so sad... The sold 200k last quarter without that deal.

    I'm interested to see how much cash is left in hand.

    Just thinking about tomorrow morning's opening price makes me cringe...

    Next week will be all about takeover or sell off talks / death of RIM.

    And I can't believe they shipped between 11 and 12 million BBs when it was a full quarter of OS7 devices on market. They shipped 14.1 million on the last quarter and it was only 2 weeks worth of OS7.

    They are definitely doing to talk about how they are losing footing no only in North America but overseas as well.
    Last edited by TheMimic; 12-15-11 at 03:57 PM.
    12-15-11 03:53 PM
  13. 1812dave's Avatar
    "mitigated"? I'd say "unmitigated". I guess it depends on one's POV.
    12-15-11 03:54 PM
  14. TheMimic's Avatar
    "mitigated"? I'd say "unmitigated". I guess it depends on one's POV.
    That depends on what reality you dwell in. The real world or the fantasy land Mike and Jim live in.
    1812dave likes this.
    12-15-11 04:00 PM
  15. OMGitworks's Avatar
    Unbelievable 14 days before they announce (today) and they still blow it. Conf cal going on now, they need to shine or else they will open 10% down or more They usually suck on the call.
    12-15-11 04:17 PM
  16. Shlooky's Avatar
    LOL BB10 devices delayed until mid to end of 2012!!!!
    12-15-11 04:24 PM
  17. howarmat's Avatar
    im speechless...i really cant believe how horrible the call is going
    12-15-11 04:28 PM
  18. chrism_scotland's Avatar
    LOL BB10 devices delayed until mid to end of 2012!!!!
    Well I'm not surprised really but for me I think thats the final blow, don't get me wrong I love QNX on my Playbook but I really think they would have been better adopting Android and bringing the best of BB to the Android world, or if they wanted to remain business centric dare I say Windows Phone might have been a decent bet.
    12-15-11 04:30 PM
  19. Caymancroc's Avatar
    The only thing that surprises me is that people are surprised. iOS and android are killing RIM. I said months ago that rim had its work cut out for them and that the worst is still ahead.
    Shlooky and 1812dave like this.
    12-15-11 04:30 PM
  20. Shlooky's Avatar
    I don't buy the whole integrated dual core chip/LTE delay at all!!

    Stock now at $13.95 US
    12-15-11 04:35 PM
  21. chrism_scotland's Avatar
    I don't buy the whole integrated dual core chip/LTE delay at all!!

    Stock now at $13.95 US
    Same here, I suspect it could be related to the issues they've been having getting BBM working on QNX, perhaps its not going working at all!
    12-15-11 04:37 PM
  22. 1812dave's Avatar
    im speechless...i really cant believe how horrible the call is going
    Matt!! C'mon, you're a bright guy--surely you can't be surprised.
    12-15-11 04:41 PM
  23. wayoung's Avatar
    I'm not surprised, but extremely disappointed. Late 2012 for bb10 phones. Damn. That means potentially 2013 for the phone everyone really wants, the qnx bold.

    No news on playbook OS2? Don't like that at all. C'mon native e-mail so next June I can switch to Android without turning my playbook into an expensive web browser/video player.
    12-15-11 04:50 PM
  24. chrism_scotland's Avatar
    I'm not surprised, but extremely disappointed. Late 2012 for bb10 phones. Damn. That means potentially 2013 for the phone everyone really wants, the qnx bold.

    No news on playbook OS2? Don't like that at all. C'mon native e-mail so next June I can switch to Android without turning my playbook into an expensive web browser/video player.
    On the Liveblog Kevin has said that Playbook OS2 remains on track for Feb, but I agree I'd only replace my 9900 with a similar BB10 form factor and if thats 2013 then I don't think I'll be waiting around that long.
    12-15-11 04:56 PM
  25. crack_me_silly's Avatar
    yeah that earnings call just didnt have any good news in it at all! I was hoping the shipments would be down to clear the channels for the qnx phones but that is simply not the case.

    The guys on the call were also very reluctant to give any guidance further out. They were actually asked directly if there would continue to be diminishing shipments and there response was that they were not giving that guidance yet.

    I guess the only positive was that they will be profitable for the future quarter...and that 20 cents of the EPS (100 million dollars) will be spent on advertising...though for some reason i expect this to be WAY too little WAY too late.

    I am very dissapointed by these earnings...and so is the market...RIMM is trading at 7.2 B or just about 70% of its book value.
    12-15-11 05:09 PM
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