10-03-15 12:50 PM
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  1. cgk's Avatar
    Fair.

    First (and maybe second) quarters after a new CEO are moved in are convenient times to drop bad news and have the understanding that it was previous leadership.

    I also expect a very poor ER. But is it already priced in is the question I suppose?

    Posted via CB10
    I am in two minds, I think the ER is priced in and I also think that the end of hardware is priced in as well *but* I'm not sure in what context it will be presented and that lead to the drop if the reporting of it is mishandled
    JeepBB likes this.
    11-28-13 07:06 AM
  2. JeepBB's Avatar
    I'm not as confident that it's all priced in.

    The wtf fall after the sale fell through was a reaction to just that event.

    I don't believe anyone thinks the next er will be good, but unless there's some sign that the ship has been righted and that all hands are bailing effectively... I reckon the price could easily fall another dollar or two.

    I don't believe bb10 phones ending will be announced... Not because i doubt they will be cancelled (coz i firmly believe bb IS exiting handset production), but because that would be an insane decision just prior to the busiest time of the retail year.

    JBB
    11-28-13 09:04 AM
  3. dusdal's Avatar
    I don't think it is priced in yet. The stock was kept artificially high because of the $9 purchase that fell through. The only good news will likely be BBM growth, but since they have been so reliant on hardware in the past, the poor hardware news will outweigh the BBM news IMHO.

    Posted via CB10
    The $9 offer has been off the table for quite a while now, why would that still be keeping the price inflated today?

    Posted via CB10
    11-28-13 10:21 AM
  4. lnichols's Avatar
    The $9 offer has been off the table for quite a while now, why would that still be keeping the price inflated today?

    Posted via CB10
    I'm saying it kept it artificially high through bad news and they really haven't had any bad news since the offer went away. It has been adjusting since the offer has been pulled, but I think that the CEO and management changes have slowed the drop. I think the next call will put focus back on how awful the numbers are as I don't think BB10 sales have picked up at all.

    Posted via CB10
    11-28-13 03:45 PM
  5. dusdal's Avatar
    So you think that the market is too bullish because of the executive shakeup?

    What would you value bbm and bbm channels at when compared to similar companies?

    Posted via CB10
    11-28-13 04:25 PM
  6. lnichols's Avatar
    So you think that the market is too bullish because of the executive shakeup?

    What would you value bbm and bbm channels at when compared to similar companies?

    Posted via CB10
    I think their has been so much happening since the last call, that investors haven't fully hit things. As for BBM it depends on the numbers. BlackBerry hasn't made any announcement since the 20 Million mark so it might not be that Great in value. Plus BlackBerry has a tendency for botching things so their ability to monetize subscribers compared to a more competent organization should be factored into the equation.

    Posted via CB10
    11-28-13 07:16 PM
  7. dusdal's Avatar
    ...how have you figured it's going down without any analysis?

    What is a fair SP to you?

    Posted via CB10
    11-28-13 07:28 PM
  8. lnichols's Avatar
    ...how have you figured it's going down without any analysis?

    What is a fair SP to you?

    Posted via CB10
    Impossible to determine. Will Chen bow out of Hardware and switch to pure SAAS? Can BlackBerry monetize BBM especially with more mature service offerings having trouble doing so? Their are way too many variables right now but the companies financial trends on known businesses (hardware and BIS) is surely not positive.

    Posted via CB10
    11-28-13 07:47 PM
  9. dusdal's Avatar
    But the market is pricing messaging and social networking companies regularly. Surely even a relative figure is possible. ?

    Posted via CB10
    11-29-13 12:38 AM
  10. ankush77's Avatar
    Hitting low to hit high ,i just see the upswing is coming soon in the stock
    11-29-13 12:43 AM
  11. cgk's Avatar
    But the market is pricing messaging and social networking companies regularly. Surely even a relative figure is possible. ?

    Posted via CB10
    oddly no - because the market prices the new in an entirely different way to existing entities that are part of a company so you are never going to see a valuation of xbbm that matches that of one of the standalone start-ups.
    sentimentGX4 and anon1727506 like this.
    11-29-13 12:53 AM
  12. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    oddly no - because the market prices the new in an entirely different way to existing entities that are part of a company so you are never going to see a valuation of xbbm that matches that of one of the standalone start-ups.
    Maybe where a spinoff makes sense.
    On the paper BBM is a brand new IM (multiPF, Channels ...)
    11-29-13 06:26 AM
  13. chr1sny's Avatar
    The platitudes were nonsense as usual - and I might add that the poster should not be trusted - particularly when it comes to stocks. I caught him lying about his stock positions in a previous thread!
    Please provide a link to the post and page. I'd be interested in seeing this.
    11-29-13 10:33 AM
  14. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    Please provide a link to the post and page. I'd be interested in seeing this.
    Me too, as I don't give advice lol.

    That post should have him removed once and for all...but that's just me...


    Posted via CB10
    11-29-13 07:57 PM
  15. cgk's Avatar
    Looking at the stock price, we could all be wrong and we could see another 52 week low today!
    12-05-13 11:17 AM
  16. dusdal's Avatar
    12-05-13 11:23 AM
  17. cgk's Avatar
    Dropping like a stone! Down to $5.91!
    12-05-13 11:30 AM
  18. BBUK14's Avatar
    I hope Chen has enough sense not to panic. Why everyone is so addicted to short term thinking is beyond me. There is no good reason to throw BB10 in the garbage - it's great, and the issue is not the OS or the hardware, but the brand toxicity, which will pass. People will get tired of saying BlackBerry is dead so long as BlackBerry stop doing rash, unpredictable things. BBM is probably worth more than the whole company is valued at the moment, and the only thing threatening BES10 is uncertainly. No one is trying to get rid of it because they think there is a better option.

    I think the stock will take another hit, but Chen should know that cutting the hardware sector would be an awful idea because it will lead to a tidal wave of fresh doom articles, etc., and kill off a part of the company that can be just fine in a year or two.

    People need to have a view that sees more than ten minutes into the future, and a plan to account for further than that. If BlackBerry stay calm, push BBM full speed this year, and release, say, two very good phones in 2014 while focusing on BES10, things will look much better by this time next year. The market are the media are hysterical and irrational about BlackBerry. That doesn't mean BlackBerry have to be.

    Posted via CB10
    dusdal likes this.
    12-05-13 11:46 AM
  19. pillswoj's Avatar
    There has to be some news to cause this drop, it is too sudden. A leak of the 3rd qrt results?
    JeepBB likes this.
    12-05-13 11:50 AM
  20. DecAway's Avatar
    There has to be some news to cause this drop, it is too sudden. A leak of the 3rd qrt results?
    I am trying to wrap my head around this myself. The only bad thing I have seen is the loss of market share in some markets down to close to zero. We pretty much knew that already. Why climb 40 cents last week to drop 50 in the last two days. There has been a lot of positive news lately. This is a surprise to me...

    Posted via CB10
    12-05-13 11:59 AM
  21. markmall's Avatar
    There must have been a leak. I sold before earnings last time just before the preannouncement. I just sold yesterday so the timing is about the same.

    Or maybe lots of others are anticipating a warning.

    The non sale fiasco must have killed sales. I can't believe how stupid they were. Without a major marketing effort I don't know what they are doing. Just blowing through cash.
    12-05-13 12:07 PM
  22. markmall's Avatar
    There's a negative story in business times or something about how sales ended in India. It's looking bad this quarter and is going to take more than letters from Chen to restore the brand if that is even possible.
    12-05-13 12:26 PM
  23. cgk's Avatar
    There's a negative story in business times or something about how sales ended in India. It's looking bad this quarter and is going to take more than letters from Chen to restore the brand if that is even possible.
    I guess you mean this story?

    Two global handset makers - BlackBerry and Nokia - going through tectonic changes at a global level have seen their fortunes take divergent paths in recent months in India, the world's fastest growing handset market.

    The premium priced devices of Canadian smartphone maker BlackBerry have been steadily falling off the radar of Indian consumers, say retailers. On the other hand, Finland's Nokia has seen strong sales on the back of new Lumia models in recent times.

    Read more at:

    Lumia gives Nokia sales a fillip, but BlackBerry fails to bloom - The Economic Times
    12-05-13 12:44 PM
  24. BBNation's Avatar
    As I said many times shorts control BlackBerry for months, they take it up and bring it down whenever they want. People like us get ripped off.

    Posted via CB10
    12-05-13 01:31 PM
  25. JeepBB's Avatar
    There has to be some news to cause this drop, it is too sudden. A leak of the 3rd qrt results?
    Yes, this is my guess too.

    Somebody in BBHQ has left a draft of the ER, or the sales figures for the quarter ended a few days ago, or something similar, on their desks.

    Once that rumour spreads it only takes a big sell order from a credible organisation who might conceivably know something, for everyone else to pile on and start selling too.

    If the share price carries on falling, the blood-bath I imagine the 20th December ER will be might actually turn into a recovery if the actual results are better than the (presumed) insider leak. That would be bizarre!
    12-05-13 01:47 PM
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