[chr1sny]

We are one tough group.
Comes from not falling in love with companies.

Also comes from being able to recognize the difference between appreciating a company's products and evaluating a company as a business.

[JeepBB]

But Canada's pride told us he's never altered the terms of a deal!

Why buy the company when you can be a secured lender? I love it how people around here still think of Prem's financing as an "investment" in the Company.

Yes, 6% interest on the loan, and preferential debtor status if it goes belly-up. So it's difficult to see how he can lose a penny, whichever way it goes.

What's that line about not being able to fool all of the people, all of the time again...?

[njblackberry]

He is covering his assets with the deal. Not an investment, a loan. If the company goes under, he is first in line to recovery. If it goes to $10, he gets a ton of discounted stock. Either way, he comes out great. He may not have been able to fund his $9 BS bid, but he will come out just fine here. Unlike the stockholders he will jump in front of.

Of course since the stock will easily be $20-$30 per share (perhaps after a 1:10 reverse split) everyone will be happy.

[chr1sny]

If I remember correctly his financing obligations are in tranches too. He's not even obligated to put up the full billion right away right?

[notfanboy]

Ah.. but $9 was just the cunning plan to lure out the big players and that was the floor...

Well we were supposed to watch out for this huge bidding war.

Then as time went on we heard about about how the bidding process was "strange", and how BlackBerry didn't have a credible business plan, and how one fund after another bowed out after seeing the books.

But there was nothing to worry about, according to ISB&IBS posters. Wasn't there Prem Watsa's word and Canada's pride at stake?

The lack of news about a credible bidder was said to be proof that there were lots of credible bidders. It was like a game of poker, they said, and the serious players only will bid after everyone has revealed their hand. Others still clung to the fantasy of joint ventures or partnerships, claiming that BlackBerry was not actually for sale.

[cjcampbell]

Well we were supposed to watch out for this huge bidding war.

Then as time went on we heard about about how the bidding process was "strange", and how BlackBerry didn't have a credible business plan, and how one fund after another bowed out after seeing the books.

But there was nothing to worry about, according to ISB&IBS posters. Wasn't there Prem Watsa's word and Canada's pride at stake?

The lack of news about a credible bidder was said to be proof that there were lots of credible bidders. It was like a game of poker, they said, and the serious players only will bid after everyone has revealed their hand. Others still clung to the fantasy of joint ventures or partnerships, claiming that BlackBerry was not actually for sale.

People approached, like what's his name in Alberta, were not given an business plan by BlackBerry, they were given a business plan by the groups approaching them. Also, as confirmed by Apples former CEO John Sculley, many were waiting to see what happened with PM's bid. They got **** blocked by the decision to take a different path. Whether that path turns out to be the right one or not is yet to be seen but to say there were no other bidders in the wing is just ignorant.

As for the "for sale" aspect of things, the for sale side was one part of the strategic review, not simply the only direction they were looking. Again, right choice or not, only time will tell.

I am not a current shareholder and may or may not consider buying again, so this is not from a hopeful stance that I'll start to climb and break even.

[Gesig Boek]

Whether that path turns out to be the right one or not is yet to be seen but to say there were no other bidders in the wing is just ignorant.

Presumably anyone who wanted to pick the company up could do a hostile take over at $7 pretty easily... Imagine if they actually offered $9.

[cjcampbell]

Presumably anyone who wanted to pick the company up could do a hostile take over at $7 pretty easily... Imagine if they actually offered $9.

With the government regulations regarding foreign owners of Canadian companies, that would be one heck of a risk to buy up enough shares to take it to that level. They could be stopped in their tracks and be left holding the bag. The prudent decision would have been to come up with a formal bid and present that accordingly for review.

[Shanerredflag]

Presumably anyone who wanted to pick the company up could do a hostile take over at $7 pretty easily... Imagine if they actually offered $9.

Have you checked the available float? Presumably not?

Posted via CB10

[njblackberry]

The shorts seem to have the only winning strategy at this point.

[cgk]

There is only response to the share action this morning:

[njblackberry]

I can't figure out why it keeps dropping. $5.54 low? It makes no sense.

[cgk]

I can't figure out why it keeps dropping. $5.54 low? It makes no sense.

I'd love to have a smart answer but I'm baffled, I thought the next big drop would be at EC.

[pillswoj]

I can't figure out why it keeps dropping. $5.54 low? It makes no sense.

The most logical answer is that there is inside info on the quarterly results floating around and it is worse then people imagined. Massive Cash Burn? Write Downs of Q10, Q5, Z30? This Earnings Call could make the previous ones seem like the good old days

[cgk]

The most logical answer is that there is inside info on the quarterly results floating around and it is worse then people imagined. Massive Cash Burn? Write Downs of Q10, Q5, Z30? This Earnings Call could make the previous ones seem like the good old days

Realistically how many Z30s would they have made given they knew how bad sales were?

[Gesig Boek]

I can't figure out why it keeps dropping. $5.54 low? It makes no sense.

We need some technical analysis... M8?

[chr1sny]

I'd love to have a smart answer but I'm baffled, I thought the next big drop would be at EC.

The current excuse appears to be selloffs to minimize capital gains taxes.

[pillswoj]

Realistically how many Z30s would they have made given they knew how bad sales were?

Contract Manufacturing would have minimums to even start to build them, and those contracts would have been in place before the Z10 was a complete failure. It would not be Z10 levels but it would be significant.

[cgk]

Contract Manufacturing would have minimums to even start to build them, and those contracts would have been in place before the Z10 was a complete failure. It would not be Z10 levels but it would be significant.

Well there is trouble ahead - it's pretty clear the Q5 was an overpriced bomb so I guess the question is - do they do a writedown of that now and the z30 later or do them all at once in one hit?

[Shlooky]

Well there is trouble ahead - it's pretty clear the Q5 was an overpriced bomb so I guess the question is - do they do a writedown of that now and the z30 later or do them all at once in one hit?

Z10, Z30, Q10 and Q5 will all be written down this quarter. BB is simply not selling in the quantities they expected.

[dbutch1976]

The current excuse appears to be selloffs to minimize capital gains taxes.

I believed that myself at one point, but not anymore. I think there is a combination of factors now.

1. Selloffs to minimize capital gains taxes
2. Nervous Nellies folding their weak hands at any price prior to earnings
3. No positive news to help stem the bloodletting

And I think there's at least another factor that we don't know about. Stocks don't slide this much over a period of days just because of the reasons above. Something's up.

[dbutch1976]

Well there is trouble ahead - it's pretty clear the Q5 was an overpriced bomb so I guess the question is - do they do a writedown of that now and the z30 later or do them all at once in one hit?

One thing I don't understand about written down inventory. Why can't this inventory be purchased at rock bottom prices? I was in a store over the weekend and I saw a Z10 still priced higher than other phones. It should be one of hte best deals in the store.

[cgk]

Ouch... $5.47 - there seems to be no bottom. According to that valuation, once you remove cash, the market thinks the company is worth @500 million?

[habicht]

One thing I don't understand about written down inventory. Why can't this inventory be purchased at rock bottom prices? I was in a store over the weekend and I saw a Z10 still priced higher than other phones. It should be one of hte best deals in the store.

Technically BlackBerry could make a fire sale and get inventory out fast and cheap, but

1) some carriers and other stores have already bought devices for a higher price and probably won't be able to sell them anymore!

2) Once BlackBerry 10 phones are selling that cheap, it will be very hard to sell future devices at a price point where BlackBerry can make money.

3) A phone that doesn't cost money won't be seen as a premium device!

[dbutch1976]

Ouch... $5.47 - there seems to be no bottom. According to that valuation, once you remove cash, the market thinks the company is worth @500 million?

Look at that graph from today. It's falling off a cliff. Even shorts covering for profit should have stopped by hemoraging by now.