"BlackBerry is far from dead........" By Michael Blair (SA)
- Excellent read; made my morning coffee one of my best ever.
PS: I copied and paste the article for some of those who may not be able to access the link. Also NOTE, the financial data spreadsheet did not post properly (for whatever reason).
BlackBerry Ltd (BBRY): BlackBerry Is Far From Dead. Right Sized, It Will Have A Profitable Future - Seeking Alpha
"Disclosure: I am long BBRY. I hold calls on BlackBerry (More...)
BlackBerry (BBRY) has been the talk of town for quite awhile now, with many pundits declaring it dead or dying. Maybe it is, but maybe not.
For a dead or dying company it shows signs of life. So far this year it introduced its new Z10, Q10, Q5 and Z30 devices, and, last quarter, it sold 6.8 million phones. It still has many fans as anyone who reads the comments on SA knows. The devices are solid, well designed, powerful and functional. BlackBerry still is the gold standard for security.
This weekend it will release its BBM messaging service on both Android and iOS platforms. I expect it will be very popular. It certainly is popular in our household. By next week, we will start to get information on how well it is received. I use it daily and would be lost without it.
Many observers compare BlackBerry to Apple (AAPL) or to Android. Why? There are a lot of other smartphone suppliers in the world who are not the subject of the negative press heaped on BlackBerry. Is there a reason why BlackBerry is so controversial? The company is not a fraud, is well managed, has a blue chip board of directors and sells products people need. Is there some reason every Wall Street commentator has to take a strip out of BlackBerry every time they get air time?
BlackBerry should be compared to suppliers its own size. How does it stack up against HTC (HTCCY.OB), ZTE (ZTCOF.PK), Yulong, Xiaomi, LG (LG), Lenovo (LNVGF.PK), and a host of other relatively small suppliers? I think it compares pretty well but have not seen such a comparison.
It has become very American to bad mouth BlackBerry and it is not a feature of the American ethic that I admire. Sure, there are a lot of Americans with sizeable short positions in BlackBerry who stand to profit if the firm fails and more power to them. But the degree to which American TV and press journalists think it worthwhile to proclaim the failure of a very fine firm on a daily basis is unfortunate. Maybe it sells newspapers or more advertisements. I don't know.
One SA member using the name Marcap makes it a point to post negative comments on BlackBerry daily, posting over 2,000 such comments so far by my count. He rarely comments on anything else. He (if it is a he) typifies the plague of negativism that BlackBerry is subjected to.
In any event, a slimmed down BlackBerry right-sized for its market is a company worth owning. The recent report that BlackBerry was on the verge of a further cut in staffing is not alarming - it is evidence the company is on the track to sustained profits through a streamlining of its operations.
What would a slimmed down BlackBerry look like? I have put together a simple model, and it looks pretty good using fiscal 2014 as a reference point.
BlackBerry currently spends $3.2 billion annually on General and Administrative expense. I have cut that back to $2.2 to $2.8 billion. I have pared the R&D budget to between $1.0 and $1.5 billion. And, I have assumed no BB7 or Playbook sales (since any sales would be at break even at best, in my view).
I have assumed annual device sales of between 16 and 24 million. The result is net income between $300 million and $1.4 billion. With a profitable base and a focus on those markets and customers where BlackBerry is valued, these results should be possible.
All the talk of a buyout is clouding the underlying picture. I use a BlackBerry. Many people I know use one. Many governments, police forces, fire departments and security agencies use BlackBerry's. A lot of corporations use BlackBerry's. Millions of people use BlackBerry devices. BlackBerry devices are unique and serve important functions better than any competing device. In the right market niche, its functions are unparalleled. It is not time to declare the company dead. Far from it.
I am long BlackBerry calls."Last edited by BergerKing; 09-20-13 at 09:10 AM. Reason: Added vB quote code, removed bad format spreadsheet data
09-20-13 08:31 AMLike 6 - The numbers didn't fare so well on the copy and paste, for sure, but thanks for sharing! Took a couple of minutes to compress the page for readability, since the spreadsheet was fubar.
Last edited by BergerKing; 09-20-13 at 08:50 AM.
09-20-13 08:36 AMLike 2 - a known pumper from SA.
He bought BBRY calls, if bbry does not go up quickly enough, he will be wiped out.kevinnugent likes this.09-20-13 08:38 AMLike 1 - Lol!! I agree. Btw would you know other ways or technique of copying it better? Thank you too.
BergerKing likes this.09-20-13 08:40 AMLike 1 - So things are not as bad as some in the media make it out to be.
Sent from my Q10BergerKing likes this.09-20-13 08:57 AMLike 1 -
- Many observers compare BlackBerry to Apple (AAPL) or to Android. Why? There are a lot of other smartphone suppliers in the world who are not the subject of the negative press heaped on BlackBerry. Is there a reason why BlackBerry is so controversial? The company is not a fraud, is well managed, has a blue chip board of directors and sells products people need. Is there some reason every Wall Street commentator has to take a strip out of BlackBerry every time they get air time?
BlackBerry should be compared to suppliers its own size. How does it stack up against HTC (HTCCY.OB), ZTE (ZTCOF.PK), Yulong, Xiaomi, LG (LG), Lenovo (LNVGF.PK), and a host of other relatively small suppliers? I think it compares pretty well but have not seen such a comparison.
To make such a comparison to these small companies is to ignore a vital and relevant set of factors, and the reason the rest of the press doesn't make such comparisons is because it just doesn't make sense to do so.
You can always drill down your focus to one small area where your company has an advantage over everyone else, but few are fooled if you announce how great you are because of one small are in which you are ahead, when you ignore many other areas of far greater importance in which you are far, far behind.
That, to me, makes this a purely "fan-boy" article, and not an article that acknowledges the reality of the Big Picture.09-20-13 11:35 AMLike 4 - amazinglygracelessRetired Mod
Good article although the point could have been made without the anti-American nonsense.Crackberrykills likes this.09-20-13 11:54 AMLike 1 -
I Agree 500%
It's EZ at least for me:
The peoples that bring the company here are the same that run the company now.
Soit's EZ you know the result if you like it, buy BBRY Share if you don't trust them or don't like where they are just Sell it !!!
But Again if you like what ahhapen just buy more like some tell, it's a UNIQUE occasion to average #SARCASTIC
Same Peoples with same methods will deliver tha same kind of results next time... ;-)09-20-13 04:57 PMLike 0 - Hahahaha. I guess you are right. "Thems the brakes". Thanks for your concern but I'm very ok because in life you win some you lose some. NO PAIN NO GAIN.
09-20-13 07:20 PMLike 0 - Bold_until_Hybrid_ComesWaterloo's FinestAlec Saunders tweeted this today:
@SimpleBerryRoy a company with 1.6 billion in sales, 2.6 billion in the bank and debt free is not "almost dead".
The denial has overcome these guys more than I imagined. What a joke.09-20-13 08:07 PMLike 4 -
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I really wish BlackBerry would stop talking about cash in the bank and no debt. In a consumer driven market, focused on technology, it's all about the sales trajectory of not only it's individual products but sales as a whole. If you look at the last ten quarters revenue, it's quite easy to see where the company is headed: to the dustbin of technology history; an example for future Harvard business schools to disect what happens when you fail to innovate in the technology space.
Unless of course they are secretly working on a technology that will fundamentally shift the mobile phone market! But they aren't. And you know why? If they were, prospective buyers would have bought them by now. So all of you who have invalid hope of 'just wait for what they may have under wraps', get rid of it; that hope was BlackBerry 10 and it failed spectacularly. And, in case today's announcment was not clear enough for you, BlackBerry as you know it, is no longer, unfortunately.
Posted via CB10Donvald likes this.09-20-13 10:08 PMLike 1 -
Below is their last qtr's data, Research+Sales+Market+Admin is about $1.1B, without a big headcount cut, this is pretty much fixed.
Last qtr bbry had a gross margin of 34%, since this qtr most phone sold were bb7 phone, so let's assume it has a 30%(could be much lower).
1.6 * 30% = 480M. (gross margin).
480M - 1.1B = -620M, at least 620M lose. But they can use some accounting tricks to shadow this a little, still eventually you can find it out in the 10Q report.
Revenue $ 3,071 100% $ 2,808 100% $ 263
Cost of sales 2,029 66% 2,022 72% 7
Gross margin 1,042 34% 786 28% 256
Operating expenses
Research and development 358 12% 367 13% (9)
Selling, marketing and administration 673 22% 547 19% 126
Amortization 180 6% 172 6% 8
Impairment of Goodwill — 0% 335 12% (335)
1,211 40%cgk likes this.09-20-13 10:26 PMLike 1 - i don't know about financial condition but BB10 OS is great and appreciated by my friends. It so smooth, i came from android.09-20-13 10:34 PMLike 0
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"BlackBerry is far from dead........" By Michael Blair (SA)
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