1. sonbuster's Avatar
    from an ultraconservative perspective.

    Peter Misek estimates BlackBerry can produce 2M BB10 phones a month (Z10+Q10 combined) BlackBerry maker

    If that were the case, BlackBerry will be able to produce 24M phones/ year. Now imagine they could sell all of it to JUST the existing BB subscriber base which is now at 80M, it would take 3.33 years to fully upgrade everyone.

    Furthermore, selling just 1.3M BB10 devices per month will put BlackBerry in the black Only 1.3 Million BlackBerry 10 Devices Would Push BlackBerry into the Black, says Analyst - N4BB

    Addtionally, however - in reality, we know from 'several high-level BlackBerry executives have confirmed internally that half of all BlackBerry Z10 sales in Canada, and one-third of UK sales have been made to new customers coming from other platforms"
    BlackBerry Z10 sales: 1/2 in Canada, 1/3 in UK from iPhone, Android | BGR

    put all that together and ponder for a second....

    BlackBerry is Back! How the war was won.-black011.jpg
    03-01-13 11:52 PM
  2. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    Wow...love it, thanks for sharing.

    Posted via CB10
    03-02-13 01:02 AM
  3. Dapper37's Avatar
    Point taken, I believe wording might be miss interpreted in your begining statement though. As BB can produce much more than 2 million BB10 phones a quarter if demand in is there. I believe them to be producing 2 million "Z10" per quarter as we speak! Not a combination of Z10 and Q10. I doubt we are even producing Q10 in any numbers right now!
    kfh227 likes this.
    03-02-13 01:44 AM
  4. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    Demand is key, and dependent on a great many things.

    I have no doubt that if there's a market for two million BB10 devices a month that BB will find a way to satisfy that demand, but at the moment that's a massive "if". Don't get me wrong; I'm a BB shareholder and nothing would please me more than for you to be right.

    But the "war" is far from "won". We're just seeing the opening skirmishes.
    03-02-13 01:53 AM
  5. Bbnivende's Avatar
    At least 65% of the base have low end BB7 devices in Asia and Africa and this group needs replacement phones that are not the Z10 or Q10.

    Assume the conversion stat is real, I suspect that this group in composed of early adopters ( they like new phones) and former BB's that have come back. We can't assume that the conversion rate can be sustained. On the plus side, the Q10's screen may be large enough to bring in converts because it is the only decent QWERTY phone produced today .( I just wish that the Q10 had a 3.5 inch screen - now that device would have been much more popular as a Iphone replacement. ) I think 1.3 million BB10 devices per month for the first year is achievable but we might see erosion of the BB7 base that could partially offset their gains.

    I don't see a winning strategy for China and India and that bothers me because those two markets have such a great potential as they just getting into Smartphones.

    Example of why BB needs to get on the ball in Nigeria - $200 smartphone vs $630 for Z10.

    http://pmnewsnigeria.com/2013/02/05/...hone-in-lagos/
    Last edited by Bbnivende; 03-02-13 at 09:03 PM.
    brianatbb likes this.
    03-02-13 10:55 AM
  6. mikeycollins13's Avatar
    Thanks for the write up and notes to the Misek piece.
    03-04-13 11:29 AM
  7. brianatbb's Avatar
    I see a disturbing problem of focus in the BB10 strategy, though I'm not sure how BB could get around it. Z10 is aimed directly at the high end of the smartphone market, which I suppose it needed to do to regain cred in premium markets. But the consensus is that while it matched the competition in many respects, the Z10 is not a game-changer in this market. And it could soon be playing catch-up, at least in terms of specs, as new iphones, windows phones and androids get released over the next several months. More problematic, though, is that, as yet, BB has nothing but OS7 devices to offer its main markets in Asia and Africa where there is very limited demand for a $700 phone, whether Windows, BB, iphone or android. We are hearing noises about possible cheaper iphones to come, and this article above demonstrates that cheaper non-BB smartphones (meaning, better than OS7 smartphones) are increasingly available there. So unless BB has some more toys coming down the pipe PDQ, it could end up squeezed at both ends. Just sayin', ya know.
    03-04-13 12:04 PM
  8. timmy t's Avatar
    Demand is key, and dependent on a great many things.

    I have no doubt that if there's a market for two million BB10 devices a month that BB will find a way to satisfy that demand, but at the moment that's a massive "if". Don't get me wrong; I'm a BB shareholder and nothing would please me more than for you to be right.

    But the "war" is far from "won". We're just seeing the opening skirmishes.
    True, but the acceptance of the OS by so many people is half of the war. With so many reviewers and non-customers being won over, it is a positive sign.
    sonbuster likes this.
    03-04-13 02:46 PM
  9. timmy t's Avatar
    I see a disturbing problem of focus in the BB10 strategy, though I'm not sure how BB could get around it. Z10 is aimed directly at the high end of the smartphone market, which I suppose it needed to do to regain cred in premium markets. But the consensus is that while it matched the competition in many respects, the Z10 is not a game-changer in this market. And it could soon be playing catch-up, at least in terms of specs, as new iphones, windows phones and androids get released over the next several months. More problematic, though, is that, as yet, BB has nothing but OS7 devices to offer its main markets in Asia and Africa where there is very limited demand for a $700 phone, whether Windows, BB, iphone or android. We are hearing noises about possible cheaper iphones to come, and this article above demonstrates that cheaper non-BB smartphones (meaning, better than OS7 smartphones) are increasingly available there. So unless BB has some more toys coming down the pipe PDQ, it could end up squeezed at both ends. Just sayin', ya know.
    I think the Hub, touch screen keyboard software and security will be a game changer. Also, keep in mind that BlackBerry will also upgrade their hardware. This is a never ending cycle.
    As for lower cost phones in Asia, BlackBerry wants to be seen as an aspirational phone, not like Android, where everyone gets them because they are cheap.
    BlackistheBerry and sonbuster like this.
    03-04-13 02:48 PM

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