12-19-13 04:58 PM
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  1. app_Developer's Avatar
    The tax kick back will cover those losses. Which was around 1 billion expected from the govt once approved.

    Blackberry was trying to get it fast tracked a few months ago.. Essentially the burn of cash means nothing as they will just replace it once refunded.

    Even if they did lose that much it will be replaced with real cash soon. But they can't keep bleeding for to many more quarters as the free money will be less and less.
    I'm not sure I'd look at it that way. If there was a tax refund in Q3, then that will already be reflected in the profit/loss. You can't count it again.

    And if there is a future tax refund in a different quarter, then that will be reflected in that quarter's profit/loss. You can't accelerate that payment into this quarter and effectively count it twice.

    The loss this quarter is a loss. I don't think you can rationalize it any other way than it's a loss.
    JeepBB likes this.
    12-16-13 08:14 PM
  2. cgk's Avatar
    We were guessing that the Z30 will be sold around 3 million times..... pretty much the CB userbase.... So far I have not seen a white Z30 I could buy and there is NO advertising and nothing there to actually make us believe that more than 3 million units will be sold.... So I guess that they have flogged around 1 to 1.5 million of them....
    I would be amazed if they have sold 400,000 or more, given lack of availability and no marketing.
    12-17-13 01:59 AM
  3. JeepBB's Avatar
    My guess in our other thread was 250,000. That being the total of all BB10 models I reckon will be sold during the last quarter.

    I'm still confident of that figure.
    m1a1mg likes this.
    12-17-13 11:42 AM
  4. m1a1mg's Avatar
    I'd be very surprised if they give out real numbers. As I've said before, I hope that Chen chooses the open and honest approach, but I'm not holding my breath.
    12-17-13 11:54 AM
  5. JeepBB's Avatar
    I'd be very surprised if they give out real numbers. As I've said before, I hope that Chen chooses the open and honest approach, but I'm not holding my breath.
    I really think BB/Chen might be (relatively) open and honest about the figures and future plans for the simple reason that he must understand that none of the listeners at the ER call will have any time or patience for the usual BB half-truths and obscure statements. BB and their recent antics have exhausted any remaining "benefit of the doubt" that the markets and press might once have given them.

    Thor's lies (a statement intended to mislead and deceive is a lie to me) and his techno-babble intended to demonstrate his visionary CEO status (it didn't!), followed by the embarrassing hokey-cokey of the "sale that wasn't" have done for any remaining credibility that BB statements might have once held.

    Any nonsense statement from Chen such as "we have a strategic plan for recovery which we are executing" will be believed only by the deeply gullible, and I doubt there will be too many fools listening to the ER call.

    So, Chen may actually try honesty as an approach. Novel idea, I realise, but I think he's smart enough to know that unless he tells it like it is (with only minor shading of the really terrible stuff), and outlines a convincing strategy for the direction he's taking BB and how he intends BB to make money in future... well, I think the reaction from his listeners will be "ugly"! LOL

    I guess we'll see on Friday.
    m1a1mg likes this.
    12-17-13 12:49 PM
  6. slickvguy's Avatar
    My estimate is 400 to 500 million burn.
    A few things to keep in mind.
    1) blackberry had 2.2b cash before bb10 was released. To be back at that level at this point is hardly terrible. For three quarters all we heard was how they would burn through all their cash before bb10 coming out. Those analysts and Internet me-too writers were completely wrong.

    2) whatever the burn for last quarter, it will definitely not continue at the same pace for the next few quarters. Future quarters will have a smaller burn.

    3) you can't expect a company to lay off thousands, settle purchase commitments, and restructure without burning major cash in the short run.

    4) they didn't raise 1 to 1.25 billion dollars for kicks. While I doubt they will ever actually use that money, it's to have a buffer as their previous cash level gets eroded for a few quarters.

    5) the tax refunds are relatively large as compared to the cash on hand and anticipated burn in 2014.
    12-18-13 02:56 AM
  7. anon1727506's Avatar
    My estimate is 400 to 500 million burn.
    A few things to keep in mind.
    1) blackberry had 2.2b cash before bb10 was released. To be back at that level at this point is hardly terrible. For three quarters all we heard was how they would burn through all their cash before bb10 coming out. Those analysts and Internet me-too writers were completely wrong.

    2) whatever the burn for last quarter, it will definitely not continue at the same pace for the next few quarters. Future quarters will have a smaller burn.

    3) you can't expect a company to lay off thousands, settle purchase commitments, and restructure without burning major cash in the short run.

    4) they didn't raise 1 to 1.25 billion dollars for kicks. While I doubt they will ever actually use that money, it's to have a buffer as their previous cash level gets eroded for a few quarters.

    5) the tax refunds are relatively large as compared to the cash on hand and anticipated burn in 2014.
    Some believe they have already spent it. We don't really know how much of BlackBerry's cash is liquid and not tied up in some future commitment.

    Either way BlackBerry has been in a holding pattern since the "we are for sale" fiasco. Now that is over with (is it), they are going to have to do some major spending to come up with newer devices (Z10 is coming up on 1 year) and to start marketing again. Wither that is a full blown consumer attempt again, or just an enterprise only move... it will cost them a LOT of their cash.
    JeepBB likes this.
    12-18-13 01:51 PM
  8. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    BGR hasn't had an original thought, story or breaking news in a long long time...but hey, could happen.

    Posted via CB10
    12-18-13 10:08 PM
  9. slickvguy's Avatar
    Some believe they have already spent it. We don't really know how much of BlackBerry's cash is liquid and not tied up in some future commitment.

    Either way BlackBerry has been in a holding pattern since the "we are for sale" fiasco. Now that is over with (is it), they are going to have to do some major spending to come up with newer devices (Z10 is coming up on 1 year) and to start marketing again. Wither that is a full blown consumer attempt again, or just an enterprise only move... it will cost them a LOT of their cash.
    Absolutely agree it'll cost a lot. They didn't borrow a billion for the hell of it.

    Full-blown consumer? No way. It won't be handsets in the future. I would think after PlayBook. Z10, et al, they have finally learned that lesson.

    Enterprise for sure. Other "new" areas too.

    Yes, there will be lots of cash burnt. The hope is that this time it'll be money well spent.

    It's interesting because so many are waiting for the cc to hear from Chen about his vision and plans, but I think he has already been clear about the direction he is taking bbry. More details would be nice, but only up to a certain point. I think we're all so used to bbry bs that what Chen has already said has been almost ignored as more bs. Lol. I think he's very intentional. What he has spoken about and NOT spoken about has not been vague or accidental.

    As I have written before, and I know many share the same thought, what I am especially looking for is HONESTY going forward. Not spin. Truth.
    JeepBB likes this.
    12-19-13 04:35 AM
  10. aniym's Avatar
    BGR hasn't had an original thought, story or breaking news in a long long time...but hey, could happen.

    Posted via CB10
    Let's turn back time to July 2011, and see how many of these recommendations ended up being followed:
    Open letter to BlackBerry bosses: Senior RIM exec tells all as company crumbles around him | BGR

    1) Focus on the End User experience- "we simply must stop shipping incomplete products that aren’t ready for the end user. It is hurting our brand tremendously."

    2) Recruit Senior SW Leaders & enable decision-making. "We need some heavy hitters at RIM when it comes to software management. Teams still aren’t talking together properly, no one is making or can make critical decisions"

    3) Cut projects to the bone. - I'll concede this point. They did cancel BB10 for PB after all :P

    4) Developers, not Carriers can now make or break us. "We urgently need to invest like we never have before in becoming developer friendly. The truth is, no one in RIM dares to tell management how bad our tools still are. Even our closest dev partners do their best to say it politely, but they will never bite the hand that feeds them."

    5)Need for serious marketing punch to create end user desire. This topic has been done to death, so I'll let it pass.

    6) No Accountability - "RIM has a lot of people who underperform but still stay in their roles..Where is the guy responsible for the 9530 software? Still with us, still running some important software initiative. We will never achieve excellence with this culture."
    12-19-13 04:58 PM
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