I'm resisting the urge to buy more because I believe it will go lower before earnings.
Printable View
I'm resisting the urge to buy more because I believe it will go lower before earnings.
That is true. Lots of bs floating out there by big investors. Jim Cramer did this interview 2 years ago and he talked about stock mantipulation. Ironically, he used RIM as an example.
I am surprise no wonder talks about unstable European and US economy. Until thoughts things are resolve it's here will be a lot of red . I hope I am wrong...
I'll maybe buy more stocks on the 1st or 2nd, should be a great day for buyers
I don't have a great memory but I believe prior to Jan 1st fiscal a lot of stocks tanked until after jan 1st. This time maybe different because of Europe, and whether the democrats and republicans can solve the deficit problem (good luck). If things can be solve partially the market will take off. Dang 90% of my watch list are down. Good luck !
Nah, that only makes a 1-2% difference. With this stock nobody cares about that
I'm in for the 400% hike :)
Ask Jim Cramer, he used RIM in his explanation on stock manipulation.
I disgree. today's news should have moved it to 5%, It was going up like crazy when the market was crashing before the launch..that is what got me. It won;t go down no matter what..I think it went up almsot 7 sessions in a row so today should have been solid green..if drops below $13 we are screwed TEMPORARILY.
End of the day we retailers are losers, any bear or bull news does nothing until big boys starts buying or selling..In the past bear news did not bring it down and now any bull news does nothing.
Today's news supposed to be super bull when the ceo of company saying we are doing well and upped the producion. I mean what else he can say..just say the numbers. Even after that bears will say that no more BIS fees, marketin cost, blah blah...
Based up last few weeks this thing will not move up no matter what and who says it until real black and white earning comes out. Unfortunately, Prem Vasta can not buy anymore due to ownership limitation unless he gets proxy buyer or tell friends to buy it.
Unfortunately we gonna have to wait until earning unless shorts recover within next 2-3 weeks..The short interest supposed to relesae tonight but it did not..may be tomorrow..that will be interesting.
this might move it up a bit..
Imagine GM running BES 10 manage all cars custom info.
http://www.engadget.com/2013/02/25/att-lte-gm/
The short interest isn't to be released till Wednesday. I don't know why you keep thinking it's today.
Here is interview from Indian director...5000k is about $100.
One thing to learn here is that Whatsapp does not make BBM less important due to feature diffrences
We don't want to be in Rs 5,000 - Rs 7,000 market, says BlackBerry India MD Sunil Dutt - The Economic Times
I thought it was 10 das after cutover feb 15th..damm..2 more days..
Not sure if it means anything but somebody bought 500,000 shares at 13.10 in after hours at 4:02.
Anyone hear about how the India launch went? Heard some people commenting on the price ? Hopefully everything else was ok.dont want to hear any news story on this .
I think people are worrying too much about the possible bottleneck of cash flow. Let us take a close look at this issue.
At the end of last Q, the company has 2.6 sh billion cash in hand and 500 million revolving credit line (never used). With successful selling of the BB10 phone, they can easily go to any bank to ask additional 1 billion revolving credit line using the receivable as collateral. This will bring the total cash + credit lines up to 4.1 billion. Let us further assume that 1 billion cash is required in the balance to meet some temporary transactions. This will give the usable working capital of 3.1 billion. The average capital recycling time period is 90 day (one quarter). If we use $250/phone as the manufacturing cost, then with 3.1 billion working capital, it can provide 12.4 million phones of inventory in the coming quarter.
At the end of the first quarter, the usable working capital will increase from 3.1 billion to 3.1 + $200 X 12.4/1000 = 5.58 billion, here, the $200 is the net profit / phone sold in the previous quarter. So in the second quarter, the 5.58 billion working capital can produce 22.3 million phone inventories for sale. For the same lines of calculation, In 3rd and 4th Q, the available working capital will produce 40 and 72.32 million phone inventories for sale, respectively.
In summary, the maximum manageable working capital in one year can produce (and sell) 147 million phones which will bring the company roughly 29.4 billion profit before tax. With 29% of tax rate, the net profit will be 20.3 billion or EP = $31.22 / year.
I don’t think I need to go further for the second year because at that time, just like Apple, Blackberry will have too much cash in hand already.
P.S. If Blackberry has working capital problem, it means that it will sell more than 147 million phones / year, then be it. As a shareholder, I will be very happy for such problem because in this case, the share price already above $310 and many people in this board made enough money to retire.
Clarification: Here, I just tried to answer some people's worry that the company does not have enough working capital to keep the demand, i.e., from pure working capital aspect, Blackberry should be able to provide 147 million phones / year (but I didn't say it could sell so many phone. LOL)
^^ I think 147 million phones per year is just SLIGHTLY optimistic, no?
Knock the "1" off the front of that and I would be extremely happy.
Lets keep it real.
I want to raise ma position, with a long-term vision ($40 range or more target), meaning I won't be hunting the lows (I have no real time trade account, I must play blind, as many rookies here).
In that spirit I must be very conservative and accept to buy a little more expensive than I probably could, but don't want to miss the opportunity.
Here's my morning order (validity: trading day):
Nasdaq : 100 BBRY at/under 13 US$
And
Nasdaq : 150 BBRY at/under 12 US$ (I don't believe this one will be fired, but in case ...)
I currently own 150 shares avg $10.5
If order #1 is fired I'm average $11.5
If order #2 is fired I'm average $11.68
As you can see, it's tiny amounts and please note it's not an advice to do the same.
But your thoughts are very welcome.
I think you missed the point of my post. I didn't say that Blackberry CAN SELL 147 million phone / year. I just tried to answer some people's worry that the company does not have enough working capital to keep the demand, i.e., from pure working capital aspect, Blackberry should be able to provide 147 million phones / year (but I didn't say it could sell so many phone. LOL)
When I wake up tomorrow, I better see $25. Goodnight!
We are still doing reasonably well in my opinion, only in February, the price tried 4 times to break 13$ support, yes we are under 50dma however we are still sitting above the uptrend support line (as long as we are above, 50dma might not have such a strong bearish effect) and so far every time bears tried to take it below, they failed or picked up massively to keep it above. Thats a huge advantage for us and we need to keep in mind that BBRY is not stock on its own and it is influenced by overall market, saying that, we finished reasonably well yesterday.
BBRY is not going to do anything till it hits the USA market. It will continue to "bump along the bottom" and we do not know how low it can get. No fancy charts can change this fact! There is no possible good news until then.
There are no guarantees when it does introduce in the USA. Much depends on the OS being fixed and just as important is that they have enough stock!
PermataBank, BlackBerry and Monitise Announce Commercial Pilot Launch of BBM Money | Benzinga
Cool lets have BBM money here. I will use BBM money to buy BB shares.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/per...-02-26-3173111
Not bad in premarket today...I'm partial to green
It's the phrasing that threw him off probably. I'd have put it as "the only way BlackBerry will have a working capital problem is if they're having to build 147 million phones a year"... and as you said, that's a "problem" any shareholder would be happy for them ever to have. :-)
Thanks for the analysis. I agree that cash is NOT going to be a big problem here.