View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1110. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    694 62.52%
  • No

    416 37.48%
  1. new_me222's Avatar
    @morganplus8: First of all, thank you for sharing all your work with us.

    You probably have already been asked this, but this thread is too big for me to search so I am going to ask again: what resources do you recommend for somebody wanting to learn TA in-depth? Books, websites, anything.
    05-11-13 02:47 PM
  2. morganplus8's Avatar
    So trying to recall my statistical training Morgan. When you draw the pennant line, arent you using 'outlier' or not normally distributed data to form the pennant? Wouldn't a narrower pennant provide a more statistically reliable outcome?
    take99!

    And you wonder why I like this thread so much!

    Another great question here. You are so right, there is a dilemma with TA that never can be resolved, and that is what data is relevant and which should be ignored? The Pennant has to include the worst case scenario simply because the enemy is likely to use it against you. That is why we use the outliers in the data, AND, we include the closing price and the confirmation of the same. We need all of this protection to make a call. The closing price is the actual price that the computer drove us to, the price they need that day. The high is the "head fake" that we are so concerned about, it drives us crazy as we don't know if "this is it" or not. And the confirmation allows us to be right again. We need to see it with our own eyes, dwell on it for a bit and then be assured that we are right. In many cases, weak hands will sell at the very time they should be buying the stock. The good news is that a false breakout or even the real thing often drops back for a long enough time for us to get into the trade. The market is very forgiving so just wait patiently for NFLX to drop .... or TSLA and so on.

    For the BB's, its entirely different, the empirical numbers don't lie. You accept the bands as confirmed and trading accordingly. The use of numerous indicators is what saves your bacon here. I push the 5-day moving average for this simple reason, you should be seeing it everywhere you go and use it like you brush your teeth each morning. That indicator will make you millions.

    In summary, a great deal of time needs to be placed determining where the line goes. It takes years to get to a point where those lines make sense. I welcome all TA lovers to provide their charts for a class review as this work isn't easy to get right. If someone tells me they see "XX.XX" as the target price and they "know" it is going there, I want the proof.

    My goal would be to see more investors use TA as one of their tools of the trade. When it is possible for someone else to provide a decent chart and help others understand TA, my work will be done. We have some good work being done on the board today and we need those members to stay on and educate us all.

    There is no other BB on the Net today where you can have these conversations at this level and enjoy your time without bashing and the nonsense that goes with that. Thanks
    05-11-13 02:59 PM
  3. morganplus8's Avatar
    This is just an awesome read. Morgan, the amount of time you put into your posts and providing us with your knowledge is simply almost unheard of. I know you have said along the likes of ...you believe "what goes around comes around". Great mentality to live by.

    I get a lot of enjoyment reading your posts. You have my ultimate appreciation.
    Spiller!!

    I also said I get an awful lot out of this thread man!!! The information isn't clouded and we have real-time updates here that isn't possible anywhere else. This thread is 24/7, never misses a beat, you have to love it. I've been around the block and like to give back a bit too, I think more of us can make some serious money with a little guidance here. Best of luck and thanks.
    05-11-13 03:04 PM
  4. morganplus8's Avatar
    @morganplus8: First of all, thank you for sharing all your work with us.

    You probably have already been asked this, but this thread is too big for me to search so I am going to ask again: what resources do you recommend for somebody wanting to learn TA in-depth? Books, websites, anything.
    Hi new_me222!!

    Hey, I have already answered that question and so have others but as you well know, those responses are buried deep my friend. I'll just mention one Website that I use for my charts that includes a ton of information about TA. Others will chime in with some books but I find so many books are forcing you to depths that many aren't ready for. The site:

    StockCharts.com - Simply the Web's Best Financial Charts

    and the reason I suggest this is so that all of us can produce the same interactive chart. This way I can work with you to produce a chart that makes sense for any stock. Their learning section is excellent too. Hopefully you are able to follow my work, I keep it simple and repeat as much as possible in order to get everyone onboard with the theory here. My wife is out today and I'm finding time to relax and catch up on my reading here!

    Thanks again for your comments.
    05-11-13 03:16 PM
  5. Komoto's Avatar
    Hi Komoto!!

    Hey, I loved that question so much I wrote my paper on "Bollinger Bands versus News influences in the stock market" (not the title) so I hear where you are coming from. It was peer reviewed and published and boring but it clearly proved that "Efficient Market Theory" (EMT or EMH), via Joseph Stiglitz and Eugene Fama is no longer relevant. Please research their work as it explains in detail how news makes a market.

    I proved through the use of BB's that this is no longer the case. With computer driven algorithms, we have a market that fills in the vacant time periods with a great deal more volatility today. It is all of this volatility that is derived from carefully planned trading ranges and strategies. We are the small fish in the sea, we use TA to try and figure out what the real drivers of the bus are planning next. The big money sets the parameters for a the stock and we try to understand where they are going.

    TA is for us small fish, its the only tool on earth that can level the playing field versus big money. After years of skirting the art of TA, you can no longer ignore it. Your second comment on the BB's bordering the stock price so well is another great one. This empirical calculation derives its accuracy from the Bell Curve Model and by using the SD of 22 business days, it is flexible enough to capture 95% of the trading range of any stock, to the point that it is included in the algorithms of the big players. When an indicator works that well, it is adopted and therein you find the idea that the "indicator is now driving the bus " works. And it is such that you are right to an extent!

    There are two classes of investors, those who move the stock with force, i.e. their money, and the rest of us. The movers don't care about anything other than getting from A to B. We care about the direction and our best guess at what constitutes a great investment is their financials. The big money has a greater plan in mind and it doesn't involve TA. Hope this answers your questions and thanks.
    M8 I see how you look at it now.

    Interesting how you split big money from us. I always just thought of it as one group where we are all constrained by similar rules and limits.

    I definitely prefer to be the small guy, so much fun is had on the journey I guess it's not so fun when you are losing money though!

    One question where is the threshold between big boys and us. Would you say it is when you can physically move the markets with your trades?

    Also if at some point in the future there is a monumental shift in the way we perceive these indicators then a lot of people would stand to lose a lot of money.

    I guess that is kindof what happened in the crisis. Certain assets became perceptibly more risky overnight and the market adjust quickly, with the relevant shock wave sent through the system...

    Apologies I am very inquisitive. Studied physics and philosophy before accounting and finance so for me the question is always why, not how or what.

    Posted via CB10
    05-11-13 03:19 PM
  6. morganplus8's Avatar
    M8 I see how you look at it now.

    Interesting how you split big money from us. I always just thought of it as one group where we are all constrained by similar rules and limits.

    I definitely prefer to be the small guy, so much fun is had on the journey I guess it's not so fun when you are losing money though!

    One question where is the threshold between big boys and us. Would you say it is when you can physically move the markets with your trades?

    Also if at some point in the future there is a monumental shift in the way we perceive these indicators then a lot of people would stand to lose a lot of money.

    I guess that is kindof what happened in the crisis. Certain assets became perceptibly more risky overnight and the market adjust quickly, with the relevant shock wave sent through the system...

    Apologies I am very inquisitive. Studied physics and philosophy before accounting and finance so for me the question is always why, not how or what.

    Posted via CB10
    To your question, yes, I believe it is the amount of money versus the size of the company or its capitalization. I can damage a company that has a market cap of under $ 30 million, but I can't make a dent in BlackBerry. I need to look at all aspects of the trade in BBRY in order to max my profits. Having said that, I own enough stock that I can't just dump it anytime I like and try to trade it daily. I have to plan my purchases and exits a little more than in the past. Because I can't get out of my block that fast, I'm spending more of my time using TA to add to my position as per the pennant formation. For instance, my latest trade is a bunch of naked May $ 16.00 Puts that I sold to acquire more stock. There is a pretty good chance that I won't be assigned those shares if the stock pops on Tuesday's news. That's okay, rather than sell my block when the stock touched the pennant line, which is what the TA is telling me to do again, I'll make some money on those Puts.

    The crash is a whole other problem and TA won't save you other than it will tell you when that crash bottomed out. You can calculate when the market was exhausted on the downside and when the bounce was coming. The only other thing I could say about the crash is that you should have been out of any stock or investment that was below the 5-dma. In that way, you have some buying power.
    05-11-13 03:35 PM
  7. kadakn01's Avatar
    Morganplus8, what are your thoughts on Demark indicators (using Fibonacci as its core). I have used Demark indicators on my bloomberg terminal in the past. When I met Tom Demark, he made it seem that his was more of a timing indicator than a technical one. Your thoughts are greatly appreciated.
    05-11-13 04:35 PM
  8. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Morgan I'm not sure I can explain how much your inputs are amazing to me. So much time spent to explain - again and again - to us noobs but also to the more advanced.
    Kudos, thanks... Merci!

    P.S: and guys, let him breathe a bit also
    Posted via CB10
    05-11-13 04:47 PM
  9. YangFui's Avatar
    I see that there is some weekend TA talk, so I wanted to chime in not to compete with M+8 but to supplement his thoughts with my own.

    I love Bollinger Bands and several other studies (MACD is another often uncanny study). But I think there is plenty to see in the BBRY chart without using any studies at all... (And studies can drive you mad: What are you going to do when 5 studies tell you that the stock is going to break out tomorrow and another 3 tell you the opposite? Which one are you going to trust? That's why I don't think you can rely solely on charts--you've got to know something about the underlying company, its management, its products, etc., in order to be successful. On the other hand, I NEVER make a trade without first consulting the charts.) When you couple the chart with the real-world goings on (for example, ratings revisions, imminent BBRY Live event, new articles starting to extol the virtues of BB10 and the new devices)--it amounts to what I think is a confluence of tremendous upward pressure, sort of like a volcano that's about to blow. I have tried very hard to consider what could cause a strong reversal of BBRY stock, and I can only think of unusual events that are not likely to occur (and such events would affect the broad market as well).

    Back to the chart: Here is an update to my previously posted daily-resolution chart, with some curve-fitting refinements.

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-bbry20130511.jpg

    What I mean by "curve-fitting" is that my sinusoidal wave has been adjusted a little but to better align with what I think is the bigger picture being formed here. Some people have asked how you know exactly where to draw your lines. My answer is that it depends how conservative you want to be. Because I'm long and holding, I am not particularly interested in penny-resolution price points. I'm more interested in knowing when to expect a breakout. Because I also believe a squeeze is unavoidable considering the short interest in BBRY, I am interested in possibly selling calls as the squeeze occurs--but that's a conversation for another day.

    Without any studies, here is what I see (it pretty much echoes what M+8 sees, and I am open to any and all feedback): There is still a major descending trendline ("major" because it spans the longest duration in my chart) and major ascending trendline and A and B, respectively. I also show what I'm calling a "flat line" at C, highlighted in light blue and dashed. There is also a continuation of the sinusoidal movement with decreasing amplitude and shortened wavelength.

    Now for the fun part: This week the wave I describe as sinusoidal did not continue as I expected (see the dashed part in the figure). It turned around early, which represents an unexpected bullishness. I took that early reversal as an opportunity to draw a minor (short-duration) ascending trendline and minor descending trendline (in pink), and this forms a pennant within the navy pennant. It is possible for the stock to stay within this pink pennant for a couple of trading days next week but given the early reversal of the sinusoidal pattern, I think it's very likely it will break out of the pink pennant and head towards the upper white circle.

    That upper white circle is an important price point--let's call it $16.50 (a price I have referred to in previous posts). It is where my flatline (C), descending trendline (A), and minor ascending trendline (pink) converge. Whenever you have several patterns that meet on or near a single point, it's significant. The x-axis location of the white circle also suggests that we won't quite reach $16.50 until the very end of the month of May--but that's if the news stays relatively similar regarding BBRY. The "live" event and increased attention of BBRY's innovations next week might change that, causing a breakout above $16.50 happen sooner. Thus, I think closing above $16.50 is very important. Then, if you consider a long-term weekly chart (I will try to post one if anyone's interested), you will see another resistance price point of about $17.80 or so. Because that's a longer-term resistance price, it could take quite a bit of buying/covering to break through that price. Thus, BBRY first has to close above $16.50--then it needs to close above $17.80 or so. Once it does that, I think the squeeze could begin to happen if it can close above $18.00.

    For completion, notice my white circle at about $13.75. It's difficult for me to see why BBRY would trend down again--at least in the short-term... In any case, there should be strong support along the major descending trendline and ultimately at $13.75 due to the point at which the minor descending trendline and major ascending trendlines meet. In other words, if the price of the stock breaks and closes below the major descending trendline then it would probably be a good time to get out if you've invested money you can't afford to lose and if you wouldn't be able to wait for another stock-price recovery.
    Last edited by YangFui; 05-11-13 at 11:07 PM.
    05-11-13 04:49 PM
  10. morganplus8's Avatar
    Morganplus8, what are your thoughts on Demark indicators (using Fibonacci as its core). I have used Demark indicators on my bloomberg terminal in the past. When I met Tom Demark, he made it seem that his was more of a timing indicator than a technical one. Your thoughts are greatly appreciated.
    Hey kadakn01!!

    Welcome to this thread! Thank you for the reference to Demark too. Tom has his own variation or derivative of our classical technical analysis and he has taken it to a new level. I personally don't subscribe to his work but I can say that some of my personal indicators make use of non-traditional formulas. As it relates to Fibonacci, I have to relate back to my earlier answer today when the question came up by take99 regarding the "piling in" approach to investment when everyone is seeing the same thing in the charts. Tom is trying to break that mold and find a platform that predicts short-term changes in momentum, surprisingly using Fib in this case. I think of Fib as a medium term indicator, not a 3-day reversal or exhaustion point indicator.

    Perhaps you can provide us with some valuable data with regards to the trade here, BBRY is coming up on some game changing news in the days ahead and I know that many here would love to hear from you. Can you do that for us? I understand you need to be careful so please see if there is something you can help us learn here. Thanks for the question and welcome to the board.
    05-11-13 05:05 PM
  11. morganplus8's Avatar
    Morgan I'm not sure I can explain how much your inputs are amazing to me. So much time spent to explain - again and again - to us noobs but also to the more advanced.
    Kudos, thanks... Merci!

    P.S: and guys, let him breathe a bit also
    Posted via CB10
    Superfly_FR!

    I guess you should know that I bow to you, as the founder of this thread; I have the upmost respect for what you have created. I'm also embarrassed by your comments, as I am literally stealing great information from the members, as I type. I was reluctant to join the thread until I realized that there are some really brilliant people here and I could learn from them. I simply try to fill in where I think I might provide some colour. Do your best to keep this thread a going concern my friend, at least until we enjoy that $ 100 party!
    05-11-13 05:12 PM
  12. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Wow. Some great Saturday reading and learning here. Thanks everyone!

    Posted via CB10
    05-11-13 05:20 PM
  13. bungaboy's Avatar
    Oil Kings won in OT...forced game six back here in Edmonton. We still have a hill to climb but we're hoping

    Posted via CB10
    Best of luck!
    Shanerredflag and morganplus8 like this.
    05-11-13 06:26 PM
  14. bungaboy's Avatar
    All this I can talk... what would happen if a big investor decided to take a 5% stake in terms of shorts?

    My thought is, what happens when 100% of the stock is held by institutions plus "controlled" by shorts?

    Probably nothing but curious if I should ponder about this. I think the answer is nothing happens but I was wondering if anyone has thought about this?

    Posted via CB10
    Well, speaking for myself, I don't like to think. It makes my head hurt and funny smelling smoke comes out my ears.
    Shanerredflag and lcjr like this.
    05-11-13 06:37 PM
  15. Bugmapper's Avatar
    Awww man. Now you guys have gone and gotten me all wound up about investing and analysis again. Gonna have go through my den and pull some titles for bedtime reading. Glad to see what you pros and semi-pros find most important. Amateurs like me can get lost in the details when we try to tackle a complicated subject like TA.
    05-11-13 06:40 PM
  16. bungaboy's Avatar
    Each day I am more and more thankful for this little family unit of Stockberrians.

    I learn so much (it makes my head hurt LoL).

    Thank you all, each and every one.

    This thread is so important I find myself in the unusual position of biting my tongue even when we get trolled upon.

    That's how much I think of this thread and the members.

    A big Cape Breton Thank You. Byes and me sons.
    05-11-13 07:02 PM
  17. plasmid_boy's Avatar
    Each day I am more and more thankful for this little family unit of Stockberrians.

    I learn so much (it makes my head hurt LoL).

    Thank you all, each and every one.

    This thread is so important I find myself in the unusual position of biting my tongue even when we get trolled upon.

    That's how much I think of this thread and the members.

    A big Cape Breton Thank You. Byes and me sons.
    Same here. On that note, cheers everybody! (pouring myself a glass, hard to choose one so I will probably do all three)


    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-img_00000362.jpg

    Posted via CB10
    lcjr, bungaboy, CDM76 and 1 others like this.
    05-11-13 09:34 PM
  18. kfh227's Avatar
    Thinking about pretzels and the damn liquor pictures reminded me that I have beer. Damned you diet destroyers.

    FWIW: Pens islanders just ended the 3rd period in a 3-3 tie. So I get to watch the conclusion with beer in hand.
    Shanerredflag, cjcampbell and lcjr like this.
    05-11-13 09:39 PM
  19. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Same here. On that note, cheers everybody! (pouring myself a glass, hard to choose one so I will probably do all three)


    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	IMG_00000362.jpg 
Views:	784 
Size:	75.7 KB 
ID:	160633

    Posted via CB10

    The Crown for me. Night guys
    Shanerredflag, lcjr and bungaboy like this.
    05-11-13 09:40 PM
  20. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    Speaking of Crown Royal:

    Roses are Red
    Violets are Blue
    We All Learn Lots
    "Let's Make A Killing Too"



    Posted via CB10
    05-11-13 10:16 PM
  21. fairfaxnut's Avatar
    We try to buy on maximum pessimism..... TA never really worked for us in the past because we don't trade. We try and buy dollars for 50 cents with earnings wild cards. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate m+8 and others with their short term TA though.

    Posted via CB10
    05-11-13 11:02 PM
  22. lcjr's Avatar
    I'll settle for some Bud Light with lime tonight. I'm reading all the outstanding material posted today and wondering how much I should put in Monday at the 10:30 dip.
    05-11-13 11:03 PM
  23. BlackistheBerry's Avatar
    I'll settle for some Bud Light with lime tonight. I'm reading all the outstanding material posted today and wondering how much I should put in Monday at the 10:30 dip.
    I am not so sure about the 10.30 dip this Monday.
    Bugmapper and Scott Lefebvre like this.
    05-11-13 11:18 PM
  24. lcjr's Avatar
    I am not so sure about the 10.30 dip this Monday.
    Go on, what are you thinking?
    05-11-13 11:20 PM
  25. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    Agree...I'm thinking up is theme till at least Tuesday afternoon...volume should tell the story and indicate what to expect.

    I hope we hear something groundbreaking but I won't he disappointed if we don't... this thread is ahead of the curve and I'm happy waiting for ER.

    Coors Light and some family time with a bbq and fire

    Cheers



    Posted via CB10
    lcjr, bungaboy and rarsen like this.
    05-11-13 11:27 PM
107,450 ... 946947948949950 ...

Similar Threads

  1. Does the Motion have the paratek antenna?
    By Steve Pogue in forum BlackBerry Motion
    Replies: 15
    Last Post: 01-13-18, 01:33 AM
  2. Replies: 11
    Last Post: 11-24-17, 12:06 AM
  3. Will Hub+ work on the new Google Pixelbook?
    By danosman in forum BlackBerry HUB+ Suite
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 11-02-17, 08:42 AM
  4. BlackBerry highlights the impact of KRACK vulnerability on BlackBerry products
    By CrackBerry News in forum CrackBerry.com News Discussion
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 10-30-17, 04:10 PM
  5. Hub and Viber notifications broken
    By LyoobaBerry in forum BlackBerry HUB+ Suite
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 10-30-17, 03:54 PM

Tags for this Thread

LINK TO POST COPIED TO CLIPBOARD