View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

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  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    694 62.52%
  • No

    416 37.48%
  1. plasmid_boy's Avatar
    Yubba Dubba Doo . . . . . . Texas sized ribs.

    Attachment 158583
    Lol...
    This is what I made tonight. After a rack, 2 beers, and a Scotch, I am ready for bed. See you guys tomorrow.


    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-img_00000349.jpg

    Posted via CB10
    05-05-13 08:39 PM
  2. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Lol...
    This is what I made tonight. After a rack, 2 beers, and a Scotch, I am ready for bed. See you guys tomorrow.


    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	IMG_00000349.jpg 
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ID:	158596

    Posted via CB10

    Nice job! Fingers crossed for tomorrow. Not much news out there...hopefully we get something positive tomorrow.
    Bugmapper and lcjr like this.
    05-05-13 08:58 PM
  3. Bugmapper's Avatar
    Good night all, thanks for the entertainment this weekend, and good trading next week.

    Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!
    lcjr and bungaboy like this.
    05-05-13 09:23 PM
  4. Dapper37's Avatar
    http://www.seeitmarket.com/blackberr...an-take-13294/

    By Max Moore BlackBerry (BBRY) has been one of the most controversial stocks in the past two quarters. As of April 15th, 2013, short interest on the stock was at 174,340,145 shares, or about 33.2% of outstanding shares (including TSX shorts). For context, as of the same date, short interest in JCP is 25.6% and the short interest in HLF is about 30.6%. Considering the mobile device landscape, it may seem like BBRY would make for a great short. Heavy competition compresses margins and earnings plateau (at best). While shorts may have the industry right, I’ve set out to convince readers that the market has the company wrong. Here is my fundamental, yet contrarian, take on BBRY valuation and prospects.

    Getting the Business Right

    Over the last quarter, it’s clear that the market has predicated the survival of the company on the success of the BB10 series (Z10 and Q10) as a mobile phone. While device sales will certainly have a meaningful impact on free cash flows for the foreseeable future, part of my point is that the company is valuable with no devices at all. The other part of my point is that the Z10 and Q10 aren’t really comparable to the iPhone or any of the Samsung products; it’s not really a phone. Back in 2010, Blackberry BBRY acquired a little Canadian software company called QNX for approximately $250 million.

    To sum up what QNX allows BBRY to do, consider Apple’s iCloud (singular). The iCloud stores everyone’s media and allows them to access it via the web almost anywhere. QNX allows everyone’s home computer to be their own little cloud, and the Z10/Q10, using QNX, allow you to connect your PC wirelessly to any device with QNX. The two key differentiating factors between this and iCloud is that the iCloud only stores media that runs on software designed by Apple (i.e., Numbers, Pages, Keynote, iTunes, etc…), and it’s all stored on a single server (or family of servers). This is not computing, and therefore not mobile computing. This is Dropbox for Mac only…and even Dropbox works better.

    Rather quietly, BBRY has both outlined what true mobile computing means, and patented the stage to make it real. Imagine taking your computer tower, putting it in your pocket, and taking it with you anywhere you go and connecting it securely to almost anything. That ‘pocket tower’ is the Z10 and Q10, and this is why they aren’t phones.

    Now that we’ve made our defense of the devices, let’s look at what else QNX is good for. QNX is the platform that BES (BlackBerry Enterprise Service) 10 operates on. In other words, it is the platform for their legendary security. Currently, BES generates around $100/year/subscriber with near 90% margins. At present, BBRY competes on this security and has now made it available for Android and iPhone users. The entire corporate side of the smartphone market can now enjoy Blackberry security, even if they do not own a BlackBerry. This is why the company is valuable, even without the devices. So let’s dig into BBRY valuation.

    Blackberry BBRY Valuation – Getting a ballpark base value

    The 10 day simple average of the stock is about $14.63, with a trading range of $13.50-$16.43. Valuing this sort of intellectual property is nearly impossible, so I’ve opted to keep it as simple as possible in looking at BBRY valuation. Using the most recent quarter’s balance sheet, I’ve prepared a simple estimate of what a potential proceeds would be if the company were wound down this year. Here’s my base case. Click image to enlarge.



    Going through it line by line:

    Assets

    Cash and equivalents – these items have a self-evident recovery value of 100%.

    Accounts receivable – provided most of BlackBerry’s customers are either carriers or other large corporate, I assumed a 100% recovery rate on the trade receivables and gave 90% to account for some bad debt expense on the “other receivables.”

    Inventory – for conservatism, I wrote it down to 0% recovery.

    Income tax receivable - assuming there is no risk of the taxing authority missing the payment, a 100% recovery is justifiable.

    Other current assets and long-term investments- these are largely comprised of government debt, money market securities and other long-term corporate debt. All of these have relatively liquid markets and don’t relate specifically to the core operations of BBRY, so I assumed that a 90% recovery was plausible.

    Assets held for sale – although these are immaterial, I wrote them down to 50% as little detail is available on what they are.

    Deferred tax assets – if they are winding things down, temporary differences between income tax expense and the actual tax bill cannot be expected to reverse, so I’ve written this down to 0%.

    Property, Plant & Equipment – looking BBRY’s most recent information form, roughly $1.4B of the gross PP&E related to BBRY specific operations (~$711 million net of depreciation). Backing that out of the total PP&E leaves approximately $1.2B, or a 50% recovery.

    Intangibles – This is where the fun begins. I would say we’ve made a fairly strong case for the future of BBRY’s patents. I approached this by asking “What would an auction involving Samsung, IBM, Apple, Google, and other tech giants look like?” Consider what was mentioned earlier: QNX allows each and every user to have their own cloud. This means no server farms for Apple, Google, IBM, or anyone else to maintain, all while still offering the benefit of securely accessing both their programs and files almost anywhere. This is an enormous cost saving to these firms and leads me to believe that BBRY’s patents would fetch a pretty penny at auction. In reality, there is no formal auction, but they certainly wouldn’t be sold to the buyer with the first offer. As such, I think a 80% recovery seems fair for a base case.

    Liabilities

    All liabilities ex deferred revenue and deferred tax liabilities – I am assuming that all bills and taxes owing would be paid in full, and therefore applying a 100% repayment value.

    Deferred revenue – Someone has given BBRY cash in advance of them earning the revenue. Presumably, the customer will either get their money back or receive their inventory (if they choose to enforce a contractual agreement). The former would warrant a 100% repayment rate, and all else equal, give a liquidation value of $14.00. The latter however, assumes that the revenue would have been physical inventory and that they would have received it. In this case, a repayment rate of 0% is suitable given the recovery on the inventory is also 0%. I’ve assumed this in the table above.

    Deferred tax liabilities – Since temporary differences are not expected to reverse, I’ve written this down to 0%.

    Although I won’t walk through each line for the optimistic case and pessimistic case, the major differences are the outcome of a patent sale, recovery on trade receivables and market values of liquid investments.

    Blackberry BBRY Valuation – Optimistic case:

    Click image to enlarge.



    Blackberry BBRY Valuation – Pessimistic case:

    Click image to enlarge.



    Given the base case liquidation value at ~$14.34 and the 10 day trading range, if you can catch BBRY on the dips, you’re essentially buying the future of mobile computing for free, or a steep discount at the very least.

    Not only does BBRY have promise as a long-term buy and hold (due in part to my thesis on BBRY valuation), but the stock has had a huge trading range over the last two quarters, making for a trader’s paradise (or hell). Be sure to read Andy Nyquist’s follow up Chartology post on BBRY, offering a near and intermediate term technical take on the stock. Thanks for reading.



    Posted via CB10
    05-05-13 09:28 PM
  5. Dapper37's Avatar
    No replacement for M8's fantastic work here. I post this article as a demonstartion actually. For those of you with a Z or a Q have a look at this page using reader mode. Really highlights the beauty of that application.


    Blackberry BBRY Technical Analysis and Trading Setup
    bungaboy likes this.
    05-05-13 09:38 PM
  6. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    http://www.seeitmarket.com/wp-conten...t_May-2013.png

    Nice head and shoulders...I wonder what it will take to trigger it.
    fedakd, Acumenight and bungaboy like this.
    05-05-13 09:58 PM
  7. Tinomane's Avatar
    Finally got around to watching this video. Around the 15 minute mark Heins talks about what mobile computing really is. They are really onto something here. I'm buying more shares/calls this week now.

    ibpluto, bungaboy, lcjr and 2 others like this.
    05-05-13 11:15 PM
  8. Tinomane's Avatar
    If you guys had the opportunity to ask Heins one question what would it be? You can ask him anything and he has to answer it truthfully. Even questions regarding how many units have been sold so far would have to be answered with an actual figure. This would remain private and suppose there is amnesty from insider trading.

    For me it would be a toss up bw how many bb10(z10+q10) units have been sold up until now or what are the exact products that are going to be released this year.
    lcjr likes this.
    05-05-13 11:33 PM
  9. chrysaurora's Avatar
    If you guys had the opportunity to ask Heins one question what would it be? You can ask him anything and he has to answer it truthfully. Even questions regarding how many units have been sold so far would have to be answered with an actual figure. This would remain private and suppose there is amnesty from insider trading.

    For me it would be a toss up bw how many bb10(z10+q10) units have been sold up until now or what are the exact products that are going to be released this year.
    For me: it'd be ' will he or will he not take end-user feedback and implement it speedily in form of weekly/monthly OS updates'.

    I think if BBRY were to create a team of folks who scour different forums and collect list of end-user feature requests, bug reports and then got them fixed/implemented in shortest time period possible, the company's fortune would just change dramatically!

    If bbry did that, it'd gain tens of millions of ultra-satisfied user who would happily (and for free) market bbry product to their friends and family. If bbry can figure out a way to collect feedback from early adopters and then implement it in short period of time, bbry would succeed in creating best smartphone (and mobile computing platform) altogether.

    That'll result in massive sales and that will in-turn result in massive increase in share price. And that will make me 'rich'.

    And when that happens, maybe Thorsten Heins would have a question or two for me!



    Posted via CB 10 app on my Q10!
    Tinomane, MrBurns2U and bungaboy like this.
    05-05-13 11:50 PM
  10. Bigbacala's Avatar
    Well, time to try out the new grill and have a few beers. Cooking up Texas sized beef ribs and chicken. Loving the weather today. Oh, and reading up on BlackBerry news as well.
    I love that stone wall, reminds me of the Flintstones.
    bungaboy and lcjr like this.
    05-06-13 12:00 AM
  11. Tinomane's Avatar
    For me: it'd be ' will he or will he not take end-user feedback and implement it speedily in form of weekly/monthly OS updates'.

    I think if BBRY were to create a team of folks who scour different forums and collect list of end-user feature requests, bug reports and then got them fixed/implemented in shortest time period possible, the company's fortune would just change dramatically!

    If bbry did that, it'd gain tens of millions of ultra-satisfied user who would happily (and for free) market bbry product to their friends and family. If bbry can figure out a way to collect feedback from early adopters and then implement it in short period of time, bbry would succeed in creating best smartphone (and mobile computing platform) altogether.

    That'll result in massive sales and that will in-turn result in massive increase in share price. And that will make me 'rich'.

    And when that happens, maybe Thorsten Heins would have a question or two for me!



    Posted via CB 10 app on my Q10!
    That would be ideal. But, honestly I feel like they've done a pretty decent job so far with the updates. Apparently 10.1 fixes a lot of issues people have been complaining about. I just don't understand why it hasn't been pushed through the carriers yet and ppl have to install leaked versions.

    I wonder if it's the carriers that hold up all these updates bc they have to do their own testing first.
    05-06-13 12:03 AM
  12. greggebhardt's Avatar
    Good Morning all.

    So what will the DOW bring us today?
    05-06-13 03:51 AM
  13. Tinomane's Avatar
    R10 is trending top 10 on twitter this morning

    StreetInsider.com - BlackBerry (BBRY) R10 Rumors Light Up Internet
    05-06-13 06:27 AM
  14. CDM76's Avatar
    05-06-13 06:41 AM
  15. take99's Avatar
    Canaccord reiterates sell on $BBRY.. We "do not believe [co] can achieve .. mkt shr levels to return to sustained profit". $9 target
    05-06-13 06:48 AM
  16. q649's Avatar
    Good Morning all.

    So what will the DOW bring us today?
    Hopefully another surge above 15000. I have some ishares dow ETF that I kept telling myself that I should sell just above 14000, so far being lazy has paid off.
    05-06-13 06:55 AM
  17. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Canaccord reiterates sell on $BBRY.. We "do not believe [co] can achieve .. mkt shr levels to return to sustained profit". $9 target
    Really??? $9...that's about the most pathetic target I've ever seen. How do you ever take this bunch seriously with their other estimates?
    05-06-13 06:58 AM
  18. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Hopefully another surge above 15000. I have some ishares dow ETF that I kept telling myself that I should sell just above 14000, so far being lazy has paid off.
    Yeah. This QE stuff is the perfect pump...now the Japanese are going gangbusters over it and the Nikkei's doing the same.
    05-06-13 07:00 AM
  19. leafs123's Avatar
    #BlackBerry10 is a promoted worldwide trend today on Twitter. Is there a larger launch of the Q10 today?

    I recall they had the promoted trend when the Z10 was launched. $200K for a promoted tweet isn't chump change.
    05-06-13 07:06 AM
  20. morganplus8's Avatar
    Hey, hey, hey, another week!! Here's what we start out with this week:

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-rim-may-5-2013-chart.jpg

    We have been following the blue pennant line for three straight days after breaking out of it at the beginning of the week. We just weren't ready for those lofty levels I guess. We have some great buzz with the Q10, we beat Apple to the DoD and found out we are pretty strong in that area, and Misek likes us, so what kind of gain would you expect a stock to have with major news like that? How about $ .61/shr! Okay, that's not much but BBRY has had a hard time staying above $ 15.00/shr for more than a couple of days and that big gap up on Monday was never touched the rest of the week so maybe we did okay here.

    Now we have a broader looking green channel and we are right at the bottom of it now so today we need to pop up AND HOLD THE GAIN HERE! Is this asking too much? We have resistance in the $ 16.35/shr area and if we can stay positive today, and clear the area, we can still get into the mid $ 17.00's this week. Only problem is, this rally needs to start today and conclude tomorrow with a breakout, otherwise, we might be looking at widening the green channel here, and filling that Monday gap too.

    And just to put things into perspective here, this is the weekly chart dating back 2-years:

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-rim-may-6-2013-chart.jpg

    When you look at the results with one week increments at a time, you suddenly appreciate how nice the stock is doing. A perfect pennant formation, a brief rally out of it and a return to rest on the line for the week. Looks like all we have to do is stay above the pennant and start to rally within the next couple of weeks here, no big deal. But most of us like to watch this stock by the minute so scrap that chart! Let's see if BB's upcoming event will stir things up here and get some rally going, the best move for this week is to clear and hold last week's high of $ 16.59/shr, ..... let's do this!
    05-06-13 07:34 AM
  21. tmurphx5's Avatar
    George is always good for a read...

    Apple And Samsung Just Don't Have A Chance Against Blackberry

    Apple And Samsung Just Don't Have A Chance Against Blackberry - Seeking Alpha
    05-06-13 07:35 AM
  22. Dapper37's Avatar
    http://t.co/JW1ApGnS3r
    Seeking Alpha, smart guy!
    Samsung and Apple don't stand a chance against BlackBerry.

    Posted via CB10
    05-06-13 07:37 AM
  23. Dapper37's Avatar
    Tmurphx5, nice work! Got me buy a minute!

    Posted via CB10
    Charles Martin1 likes this.
    05-06-13 07:47 AM
  24. take99's Avatar
    More on the cannaccord reiteration,


    Canaccord Genuity analyst T. Michael Walkley reiterated a Sell rating and $9 price target on BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY) Monday saying checks show slowing Z10 trends and while the Q10 has has solid initial demand, the supply is limited.

    "Our global surveys indicate mixed BlackBerry sell-through trends, with weakening sales of the Z10 over the past month but strong initial demand for the limited supply Q10," Walkley said.

    Given the weaker Z10 sales levels combined with more limited initial supply of the Q10 than their expectations, the firm is lowering BB10 sellin estimates for the May quarter from 3.3M to 2.8M units.

    "While we anticipate stronger near-term results for BlackBerry as higher margin BB10 smartphones sell into the channel, we do not believe BlackBerry can achieve sell-through market share levels to return to sustained profit levels," he said.

    The firm reduce F2014 LPS estimate from ($0.37) to ($0.44). F2015 LPS estimate of ($0.75) remains unchanged.

    For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on BlackBerry click here. For more ratings news on BlackBerry click here.

    Shares of BlackBerry closed at $15.63 yesterday, with a 52 week range of $12.55-$17.22.
    05-06-13 08:07 AM
  25. neteng1000's Avatar
    Canaccord? LOL

    These guys have a lot of credibility don't they?
    05-06-13 08:13 AM
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