View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1110. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    694 62.52%
  • No

    416 37.48%
  1. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    I know. That's why I'd like to have someone translate it into terms I can understand. ;-)
    Coles notes version (and only my opinion): day traders are playing a straddle, meaning opening both puts and calls on the stock at the same time; not only that, changing their position within the straddle every 5 minutes. A straddle is another hedge strategy to extract fractions of a percentage of value while protecting ones position with bets in the other direction.
    So...he's thinking there really are not too many seriously long term "short" positions on the stock because the majority of volume is simple day trade straddles....meaning no short squeeze in the broader sense.
    04-01-13 12:18 PM
  2. peter9477's Avatar
    My read is that he is saying it is not about BlackBerry as a Company or it's products. It is about the volitility and how much big money the day traders are making each and every day off this manufactured volitility.
    I sort of got that, but I don't understand the implications in terms of the short interest. Does it mean that this will not translate into the potential for a major short squeeze, the likes of which the market hasn't seen since Volkswagen? Does it mean that the numbers (155M shorted, or whatever it was) sound big but actually mean nothing because... ? I can read the words, but what does it mean for the stock?
    04-01-13 12:22 PM
  3. peter9477's Avatar
    So...he's thinking there really are not too many seriously long term "short" positions on the stock because the majority of volume is simple day trade straddles....meaning no short squeeze in the broader sense.
    Okay, so in effect it's a mirage? The bulk of that supposedly short interest could sort of evaporate overnight with almost no effect on the stock price? I'm struggling to see how that would work.

    Or is he simply explaining something about why the short interest is like it is, but in the end it makes no difference? After all, once they start buying to cover their positions, the price has to go up... supply and demand, etc. And with 155M shorted, and not much more than that (if any) actually available, doesn't that inevitably drive the price up a lot?
    fedakd likes this.
    04-01-13 12:24 PM
  4. anon(757282)'s Avatar
    Rocking my NEW VERIZON Z10 ! . Bought it this weekend. So I think that is why the stock is bumping upward today. If everyone of you buys one we can hit $30 this week!
    04-01-13 12:26 PM
  5. erodenero's Avatar
    04-01-13 12:28 PM
  6. mrfreetruth's Avatar
    155 million short on a profitable company that is trading below book value is crazy. Not sure who would want to be short with limited to no downside. The short play on BlackBerry is over.

    Posted via CB10
    Shanerredflag, bungaboy and fedakd like this.
    04-01-13 12:29 PM
  7. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    Okay, so in effect it's a mirage? The bulk of that supposedly short interest could sort of evaporate overnight with almost no effect on the stock price? I'm struggling to see how that would work.

    Or is he simply explaining something about why the short interest is like it is, but in the end it makes no difference? After all, once they start buying to cover their positions, the price has to go up... supply and demand, etc. And with 155M shorted, and not much more than that (if any) actually available, doesn't that inevitably drive the price up a lot?
    Correct on the Mirage because to play a straddle trade your actually betting your own shares on the short, but...

    This is his opinion and no one knows for sure what is going on...the pros know more because they will play together but in the end it's still an educated guess.

    M8 alluded to the fact the big investment banks are taking it a step further and simply borrowing huge blocks of shares to manipulate the price which in effect gauruntees their position (and win) on any given trade during the day...clear as mud?

    Posted via CB10
    bungaboy and peter9477 like this.
    04-01-13 12:33 PM
  8. helopilot06's Avatar
    Voted. 60 vote lead
    Shanerredflag and bungaboy like this.
    04-01-13 12:34 PM
  9. StormieTwo's Avatar
    Done, We're currently at 60.6% (183 votes) vs 39.9% (119 votes) for the Nexus
    Shanerredflag and bungaboy like this.
    04-01-13 12:35 PM
  10. StormieTwo's Avatar
    Correct on the Mirage because to play a straddle trade your actually betting your own shares on the short, but...

    This is his opinion and no one knows for sure what is going on...the pros know more because they will play together but in the end it's still an educated guess.

    M8 alluded to the fact the big investment banks are taking it a step further and simply borrowing huge blocks of shares to manipulate the price which in effect gauruntees their position (and win) on any given trade during the day...clear as mud?

    Posted via CB10
    Looks like the big players have decided today is an up day for BBRY (up 5% and Counting)!

    Woot Woot!
    Shanerredflag and bungaboy like this.
    04-01-13 12:37 PM
  11. take99's Avatar
    Another upgrade

    BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY) was upgraded by investment analysts at Paradigm Capital to a “buy” rating in a note issued to investors on Monday.

    The analysts wrote, “Overall, we view the Q4 results as being a net positive for BlackBerry. While there were negatives, including the 3M q/q decline in subscribers and continued uncertainty about the pace of Service revenue attrition, we believe this was offset by the strong rebound in gross margins (i.e., mostly hardware), healthy initial shipments of BB10 and a flat q/q cash position. While the company is certainly not out of the woods, we believe the stock is worth a second look given the stabilized operational results, pending launch of the highly anticipated Q10 keyboard device (which should be supported by a strong corporate refresh), and a possible rejuvenation of takeover speculation now that Mike Lazaridis is retiring from the board. We are increasing our rating to a Speculative Buy (was Hold) and our target to $19.00 (was $16.00), which is based on 3.5x FY14e EV/EBITDA.”

    BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY) traded up 3.08% on Monday, hitting $14.89. BlackBerry has a 52-week low of $6.22 and a 52-week high of $18.32. The stock’s 50-day moving average is currently $14.39. The company’s market cap is $7.805 billion.

    BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY) last released its earnings data on Thursday, March 28th. The company reported $0.22 earnings per share for the quarter, beating the analysts’ consensus estimate of ($0.30) by $0.52. The company had revenue of $2.70 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $2.84 billion. During the same quarter in the previous year, the company posted $0.80 earnings per share. The company’s revenue for the quarter was down 35.9% on a year-over-year basis.
    04-01-13 12:48 PM
  12. peter9477's Avatar
    ...clear as mud?
    Exactly that clear, I'm afraid, but thanks for trying. :-) There's a reason I'm mostly a long-term trader... this stuff is nuts.
    Shanerredflag and bungaboy like this.
    04-01-13 12:53 PM
  13. AnimalPak200's Avatar
    Looks like someone (i.e. lcjr) is going to have a bit more cash to dump in to BBRY tomorrow.

    TSLA
    Shanerredflag and bungaboy like this.
    04-01-13 12:54 PM
  14. rebekahlynnharrison's Avatar
    Really great numbers today on BB.
    No matter when you get in, even with the conservative projections to year-end, there's profit to be made.
    Therefore, I'm staying put.
    Tempting to tap into an LOC to max out our TFSA's, pay only the monthly interest to year end (then pay back)
    leaving the profit remaining in the TSFA's.
    04-01-13 12:55 PM
  15. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Nice solid gains today.
    BlackistheBerry and bungaboy like this.
    04-01-13 12:55 PM
  16. kfh227's Avatar
    Shorts going to cause a squeeze?

    Posted via CB10
    04-01-13 12:57 PM
  17. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    BNN just had a fellow on and it looks like HTC is launching a Facebook phone on Thursday...It's going to run Android.

    Posted via CB10
    04-01-13 12:58 PM
  18. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Nothing from Goldman yet...probably embarrassed...
    bungaboy likes this.
    04-01-13 01:00 PM
  19. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    BNN just had a fellow on and it looks like HTC is launching a Facebook phone on Thursday...It's going to run Android.

    Posted via CB10
    Too bad for them...lol
    Shanerredflag and bungaboy like this.
    04-01-13 01:00 PM
  20. cjcampbell's Avatar
    BNN just had a fellow on and it looks like HTC is launching a Facebook phone on Thursday...It's going to run Android.

    Posted via CB10
    lol... really? That sounds like something that would have been a hit about 3-4 years ago but not in these days.
    04-01-13 01:01 PM
  21. morganplus8's Avatar
    Here's a mid-day chart for you:

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-rim-april-01-2013-chart.jpg

    This morning we touched down on the sym-triangle for a minute and then rallied through the 5-dma and the 50-dma and never looked back. We dropped briefly back to the 50-dma to confirm the breakout and then rallied again to the next resistance point which is the pennant formation in green. We have to get above $ 15.30/shr and hold it in order to claim our 4th major resistance in just one day. This is a great rally and it is on the back of upgrades all day. The negative news about the Q4 results is behind us now and it should be because there was nothing negative in that report.

    As for the short position, there is absolutely nothing different about BBRY's short position and Netflix, they are the same with less than 10% hedge in them and we can expect the same results when shorts are forced to cover. There will still be a massive rally when it comes. If you need to factor in the possible hedge available for BBRY look at the option contracts outstanding in various strike prices over time, there isn't nearly enough hedging available to take 155 million shares off the market. This stock is no different than Netflix if that helps.

    Question: Can we take out the pennant formation above $ 15.30/shr today? Well why not.
    04-01-13 01:03 PM
  22. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    BNN just had a fellow on and it looks like HTC is launching a Facebook phone on Thursday...It's going to run Android.

    Posted via CB10

    So did the BNN folks swoon all over the idea? F'n morons...
    Shanerredflag and bungaboy like this.
    04-01-13 01:03 PM
  23. bungaboy's Avatar
    Did. Thanks.
    Shanerredflag likes this.
    04-01-13 01:04 PM
  24. Mike Meldrum's Avatar
    I just wanted to take a minute and thank everyone for their contributions. As I am completely new to stocks I cannot offer any helpful information which makes me feel guilty for following this thread. I just wanted to give a big thank you to all who offer their help.
    04-01-13 01:07 PM
  25. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    So did the BNN folks swoon all over the idea? F'n morons...
    No. Not at all. I got the impression they thought it odd...asked "why now" and "What can they hope to Achieve" lol

    Posted via CB10
    04-01-13 01:08 PM
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