[DragonFlyer]

Back to the stocks, well I admit... I am excited and worried. Obviously I am in this b/c I believe there is money to be made, with all the research I've done. I'm not one of those investors who are just gambling on a strong ER. It's a tough thing to play because according to what I've read. The past ER's have caused dips, so what really makes this one any different? I hope it just stabilizes around 15 for now. If the ER is great, then I really hope there is a jump, but this stock is so unpredictable at times.

If you remember the last ER caused the stock to jump a lot. It was the call afterwards that caused the stocks to tank when they couldn't answer the forward looking service revenue question with any confidence.
I think what is different this time is the ER is going to be even better. I would hope that they are very well prepared for the conference call this time around. They should have a very positive forward looking oral statement. They should be expecting the service revenue question again and been rehearsing their response for the past month.
Do I expect them to do everything right? Of coarse I do or I would not be giving them my hard earned money.
Do I guarantee they do everything right? Of coarse not. The only thing I will guarantee is that I will be doing some heavy drinking on Thursday.

[Bugmapper]

If you remember the last ER caused the stock did jump a lot. It was the call afterwards that caused the stocks to tank when they couldn't answer the forward looking service revenue question with any confidence.
I think what is different this time is the ER is going to be even better. I would hope that they are very well prepared for the conference call this time around. They should have a very positive forward looking oral statement. They should be expecting the the service revenue question again and been rehearsing their response for the past month.
Do I expect them to do everything right? Of coarse I do or I would not be giving them my hard earned money.
Do I guarantee they do everything right? Of coarse not. The only thing I will guarantee is that I will be doing some heavy drinking on Thursday.

Yup, I think we should all have a couple thursday.

Posted via CB10 on a BLACK Z10!

[nquyen]

If you remember the last ER caused the stock to jump a lot. It was the call afterwards that caused the stocks to tank when they couldn't answer the forward looking service revenue question with any confidence.
I think what is different this time is the ER is going to be even better. I would hope that they are very well prepared for the conference call this time around. They should have a very positive forward looking oral statement. They should be expecting the the service revenue question again and been rehearsing their response for the past month.
Do I expect them to do everything right? Of coarse I do or I would not be giving them my hard earned money.
Do I guarantee they do everything right? Of coarse not. The only thing I will guarantee is that I will be doing some heavy drinking on Thursday.

This is some serious **** man, a LOT of money in this (for me at least), I pray for a good ER. I PRAY!

[nquyen]

Like I said, I have never seen that from T-Mo specifically, because believe me at the time I was on their site for the SIII release the Note II also on their release dates seeing if I could upgrade and never saw that . To me that means something. It doesnt say its site work, it says "High Demand" anything else release for T-Mo today... nope... so where is the demand? Maybe not all of it for BB but I would suggest alot of it is.

Edit: Also I forgot to include this in the original post but I called T-Mo customer service too when I couldnt get it done earlier online and they told me in no mixed language that they had an "Unusually high call volume asking about the Z10..." Again thats one rep but they arent normally the ones to sugar coat something like that.

Interesting. I too called a couple T-Mo stores and most had like 2 left. Is that a reflection of great sales? I don't know. Depends on how much they had to begin with.

[morlock_man]

I'm not in that big, but I can use it as a nest egg to fund a few business ideas I've been working on.

I'm quite happy with BBRY's performance. They're a solid company that understands their business model and will be one of the few that makes a successful turnaround.

[helopilot06]

Interesting. I too called a couple T-Mo stores and most had like 2 left. Is that a reflection of great sales? I don't know. Depends on how much they had to begin with.

True. The store near me started with 10 and at the end of the day they only had 1 left in store.

[Shanerredflag]

How lame is this?
http://www.engadget.com/2013/03/26/t...ature-enabled/


Posted via CB10

[take99]

Little tidbit I found about sales in UAE

�In our store the Z10 is selling at almost the same level as the Galaxy S3,� said another staff from the mobile phone division at eMax.

The only factor that is preventing many other prospective customers from choosing the Z1O is the lack of applications,� he said.

[DragonFlyer]

Don't want to be a downer, but that's specious reasoning. Especially when the iPhone 5 was announced for T-Mo. Literally every time I check out the T-Mo FB there is someone asking when they will get the iPhone every 15 minutes. Not saying it's not because of BlackBerry, or the iPhone, or renovations to the site, but take it with a grain of salt.

and a shot of tequila

[helopilot06]

and a shot of tequila

Dont forget the lime

[Marc_Paradise]

Do I expect them to do everything right? Of coarse I do or I would not be giving them my hard earned money

Assuming you're talking about your phone purchase?

'cause our ownership of stock doesn't actually support them unless we buy in at IPO...

Worse, stock is a liability after the IPO. It goes on forever, in exchange for some money up front.

[chrysaurora]

Assuming you're talking about your phone purchase?

'cause our ownership of stock doesn't actually support them unless we buy in at IPO...

Worse, stock is a liability after the IPO. It goes on forever, in exchange for some money up front.

Actually, even at IPO, our purchase makes little difference. Company gets paid by the underwriting company. Proceeds from IPO are taken by underwriters.

[Marc_Paradise]

Actually, even at IPO, our purchase makes little difference. Company gets paid by the underwriting company. Proceeds from IPO are taken by underwriters.

True - but if nobody was willing to buy the underwriters wouldn't underwrite. So the IPO support is indirect but crucial.

[Luke Barrie]

Interesting. I too called a couple T-Mo stores and most had like 2 left. Is that a reflection of great sales? I don't know. Depends on how much they had to begin with.

I would expect so I imagine most sores would receive a minimum of 5 units for a tiny outlet shop, 10 units for a retail location, and up to 20 for high-traffic stores or select demographics. The idea is that they have enough to sell for a few days to a week, long enough that they can judge demand and restock in time


side-note: the other night i visited a few bars in toronto, and TWO (2) of them had LARGE rogers Z10 adverts inside. (probably 4ftx4ft in size!). Both in the College&Bathurst area of toronto. I think it takes carriers some time to evaluate the device before they throw thier own marketing funds at it, and the US has not been exposed to this interest yet. (but will soon)


PS: 1 day of trading till the ER on the 28th. any guesses? I see 1-3% gains like today or even better. BBRY has gotten some negative news the past few sessions, and its about time to see some optimism show up and drive the prices through the afternoon. $15 seems like a good target to end the day on as long as the press is quiet,

[rampagingpanda]

Appreciate the analysis Morgan!

[fairfaxnut]

I know this is repeat of my previous thread but it applies more than ever with short interest over 160 mil including TSX.

Read below and do not fall for the fake raid. Be strong like BB, do not break in the midst of ER headlines, positive news will turn into negative headlines. Hold on tight, just like CNBC guy said yesterday his BB still works after 6 years.

Just wanted to share some info on this. If you are holding any RIM shares do not sell in panic, Shorts will be desparate and will try anything to cover. They do this all the time wiht Natural gas, just google it. It was reported few weeks ago by the trader on the floor. They put fake sale orders using high frequency trading systems and that will panic people like us and we will be left with no share, they will cover and make even more..

Just asking to be careful and not be fooled by these manipulators..depending on your portfolio, position and strategy sell some but just give it some thoughts insteading of panicing..
A fine panic manipulation example was on Dec 20, 2012 after hour. Big shorts sold 20M+ shares in 20 minutes. Then their media arms spread the fear that evening and next morning to cause a big drop in share price.

Do not fall for the big short manipulation.

They had tried in on the FB event. Big shorts tried to Pin-the-Donkey on the FB/RIMM for the share rise. They had hold when there was no announcement, they do a manipulation. I tried desperately to tell everyone, there is no FB/RIMM announcement on the message board.

Now, they tried to mis-inform calling Lenovo a buyout instead of what it is - a potential Strategic Partnership.

with your RIMM stock. There will a bear raid for sure, with this many shares shorted. They can wipe all your shares off the board in 60 seconds.
For those of you unfamiliar with a bear raid, the hedge funds that decide they want to cover their short positions, instigate a quick large SELL "at Market" move. They make it big enough to catch the first batch of Stop Losses set, and that triggers a domino effect of automatic Sells that plummet the pps.
A moment later, they do a massive BUY "at Market" move and buy up all your shares.
You will be left with no shares, and they will have a huge purchase as a cheap price.
Within 5 minutes, the price will be back to what it was, and you will be scratching your head.
Just a heads up.

This is today's market... some of these shorts have gone as far as making fake websites and mis quoting press releases.

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[The Selected Fruit]

I like your analysis Morgan. I agree that the numbers which the Street has put out are too low.

I bought some more BBRY stock at $13.76 on Monday and am overweight now, both in stock and pounds!

I will be off line for week as taking a vacation now, so you all have a good Easter and good luck everyone.

[Superfly_FR]

GoooooodMoooorning StockBerrians !
Should be an interesting day, unfortunately, I won't be there, to much work (deliver,deliver,deliver !).
Enjoy the movie and .... STAY CALM !

[fairfaxnut]

Wow... This thread is huge. If we purchased a 100 shares of bbry for each post on this thread, we would own .002% of BlackBerry.

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[KISSINGER]

BBRY

$14.51


*

unch



Get BBRY Alerts

*Delayed - data as of 03/27/2013 05:32


Read more: Research In Motion Limited Pre-Market Trading - NASDAQ.com
Nice start

[bungaboy]

Neutral I guess.

Where does BlackBerry go from here? Earnings report may point the way

by The Canadian Press on Tuesday, March 26, 2013 2:57pm -

TORONTO – Sales figures for the new BlackBerry smartphone have been a mystery since the device launched nearly two months ago, but the veil will be lifted on Thursday when the company reports its fourth-quarter results.

But the picture that will emerge for BlackBerry sales is only part of the whole story, which several analysts caution could still take another quarter to completely materialize.

“Buyers beware it is too early to gage sell-through,” wrote National Bank analyst Kris Thompson in a note to investors on Tuesday.

Since its last quarterly report, the company held a splashy launch in New York for its new phones, changed its name from to BlackBerry and rolled out the Z10 touchscreen smartphone in several key markets around the world.



The fourth-quarter results will serve as a good sense of how that initial rollout went, and what to expect this year from the company formerly called Research In Motion, as it works to regain a position in the ever-changing smartphone industry.

In recent weeks, analysts have relied almost exclusively on contact with mobile phone retailers to determine whether the BlackBerry Z10 has been a sales hit or miss. The anecdotal evidence has proven mixed at best, with some relaying that stores were sold out in the U.K., while others said they couldn’t find signs that stock was depleted.

Then there were questions about the number of phones each store received, leading to further confusion over how to qualify a murky product launch that may have stocked some stores with as few as two or three devices.

BlackBerry has labelled the Canadian and U.K. launches a success, noting that devices were sold at a faster clip than previous models, though it has declined to provide sales figures.

For analysts, the focus on Thursday will be where the company goes from here.

“We believe the real moment of truth will be the next quarter when the company has a full quarter of (the new phone) under its belt,” said Bill Kreher, a technology analyst with financial services firm Edward Jones in an interview.

“What will be very important is the company’s outlook for the upcoming 90 days.”

During that period, the company is expected to release a version with a physical keyboard, which could attract longtime BlackBerry users who shy away from touchscreen devices. A release date hasn’t been announced yet, though Canadians are likely to get the phone in April.

When the Waterloo, Ont.-based company reports its fourth-quarter earnings on early Thursday before markets open, analysts expect a fourth-quarter adjusted loss of 29 cents per share. Revenue is targeted at US$2.84 billion, according to a poll of analysts by Thomson Reuters.

Nearly as important will be BlackBerry subscriber numbers, which analysts consider a revealing figure into the popularity of the devices and a window into future revenue potential. The company receives monthly service revenue from each of it smartphone users.

In the third quarter, the company’s subscriber base slipped by one million to 79 million from the previous quarter, and expectations have been for a further erosion as more users retired their older BlackBerry models over the holiday season.

“It is critical for the company to maintain that subscriber base as it transitions from legacy products to BB10,” said Kreher.

Also on the radar will be how much cash the company still has in its coffers after paying for the phone launch and related marketing expenses. BlackBerry has managed to keep a solid cash position of nearly $3 billion over the past year as it prepared the delayed models.

Chief executive Thorsten Heins told the Australian Financial Review last week that he will report a “pretty good cash position” for the quarter.

Analysts will also look for comments from Heins on the U.S. launch, which started last week at AT&T. Several analysts have characterized it as lacklustre to moderately impressive, with some criticizing the lack of marketing dollars put behind the U.S. launch and poor placement in stores.

On Monday, Goldman Sachs trimmed in its expectations for the success for the new devices in the U.S. to a 20 per cent probability from 30 per cent.

“Despite the product itself being relatively well received by sales associates and online reviews, sell-through at most locations was less than 10 (units) per day, and in many it was as low as two to three per day,” Goldman Sachs analyst Simona Jankowski said in a note, which downgraded BlackBerry shares to “neutral” from “buy” at $17.

Cormark Securities analyst Richard Tse said that BlackBerry has the opportunity to surprise analysts with its quarterly results. He has a “buy” rating on the stock with a $20 target price.

[bungaboy]

This is today's market... some of these shorts have gone as far as making fake websites and mis quoting press releases.

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Well if that is the case I hope the SEC investigates.

[helopilot06]

Good morning everyone. Looking forward to a great day of trading today. Hope everyone is ready for the ride

[Shanerredflag]

Neutral I guess.

This is going to be very interesting...this quotes older estimates of a loss in the high .20 range however TH was quoted as saying the company is once again profitable. I can not find the interview but it was later two weeks ago I think...

trying not to over estimate but it's hard not to be excited

Posted via CB10

[bungaboy]

WTF is this about? I thought they switched from subscribers to phone sales. Or is this just a part of the short setup?

BlackBerry Earnings: All Eyes On Subscriber Growth

BlackBerry Earnings: All Eyes On Subscriber Growth - Seeking Alpha