View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1106. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. Lehomer's Avatar
    No worries, I wasn't planning a parade. Can you tell me where I can buy an iPhone 6 ?

    Sorry to rain on your parade but even the unreleased iPhone 6 or the HTC One has more searches.

    Google Trends
    03-24-13 12:56 PM
  2. drummer_god's Avatar
    03-24-13 01:51 PM
  3. DragonFlyer's Avatar
    Why The Bulls Are Even Bearish

    Goldman: BlackBerry 10 to sell 2 million to 3 million units per quarter for the rest of this year
    Goldman Sachs analyst Simona Jankowski has a buy signal on BlackBerry with a target of $19

    Lets do some math
    2 -3 million BB10s per quarter
    Canada has 4% of the BB market
    4% of 2-3 million is 80,000 - 120,000
    Bell has 28% mobile market share
    28% of 80,000 - 120,000 is 22,400 - 33,600
    Bell has more than 2,000 stores and authorized dealers across Canada
    22,400 - 33,600 divided by 2,000 is 11.2 - 16.8
    90 shopping days per quarter
    Bell needs to sell 1 BB10 every 5 - 8 days at each location to maintain its fair share in the market

    Now if that is not a bearish forcast, I don't know what is.
    Why The Bulls Are Even Bearish (part 2)

    Goldman Sachs analyst Simona Jankowski has delivered one of the more bullish projections for the company that we’ve heard in recent weeks.BlackBerry 10 quarterly sales estimate: 2 million to 3 million | BGR
    Projected to sell at least 2 million BlackBerry 10 smartphones per quarter in 2013.

    Lets do the math
    Today, AT&T has more than 16,000 retail locations in the U.S. http://www.att.com/Common/merger/fil...rom_ATT-FS.pdf
    Lets say that each AT&T location (16,000) can sell 1 BB10 per week and multiply it by 13 (52 weeks divided by 4 quarters)
    16,000 x 13 = 208,000
    AT&T has a 26.6% market share in the U.S. Don't Sweat a BUD Monopoly | InvestorPlace
    208,000 divided by 26.6% = 781,955
    The BlackBerry subscriber base is 22% in the U.S. Where RIM's subscribers are - The Globe and Mail
    781,955 divided by 22% = 3,554,340

    The bottom line: If AT&T can sell 1 BB10 per week at each of their locations and the market shares remain the same, BlackBerry will sell 3,554,340 BB10s per quarter.
    Now just imagine AT&T can sell 1 BB10 per day..... I'll let you do the math!
    Last edited by DragonFlyer; 03-25-13 at 01:11 AM.
    03-24-13 01:54 PM
  4. BlackistheBerry's Avatar
    Why The Bulls Are Even Bearish (part 2)

    Goldman Sachs analyst Simona Jankowski has delivered one of the more bullish projections for the company that weve heard in recent weeks.BlackBerry 10 quarterly sales estimate: 2 million to 3 million | BGR
    Projected to sell at least 2 million BlackBerry 10 smartphones per quarter in 2013.

    Lets do the math
    Today, AT&T has more than 16,000 retail locations in the U.S. http://www.att.com/Common/merger/fil...rom_ATT-FS.pdf
    Lets say that each AT&T location (16,000) can sell 1 BB10 per week and multiply it by 13 (52 weeks divided by 4 quarters)
    16,000 x 13 = 208,000
    AT&T has a 26.6% market share in the U.S. Don't Sweat a BUD Monopoly | InvestorPlace
    208,000 divided by 26.6% = 781,955
    The BlackBerry subscriber base is 22% in the U.S. Where RIM's subscribers are - The Globe and Mail
    781,955 divided by 22% = 3,554,340

    The bottom line: If AT&T can sell 1 BB10 per week at each of their locations and the market shares remain the same, BlackBerry will sell 3,554,340 BB10s per quarter.
    Now just emagine AT&T 1 BB10 per day..... I'll let you do the math!
    This needs to be posted on a lot of other threads here. Strange stuff being posted on a lot of threads.
    Or maybe start a new thread with this calculation.
    And also make it a sticky.
    And also make that sticky go on the home page of CB.
    And also make it flash.
    And also......
    Last edited by BlackistheBerry; 03-24-13 at 03:02 PM.
    03-24-13 02:30 PM
  5. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    This needs to be posted on a lot of other threads here. Strange stuff being posted on a lot if threads.
    Or maybe start a new thread with this calculation.
    And also make it a sticky.
    And also make that sticky go on the home page of CB.
    And also make it flash.
    And also......
    shhhhh... no, we are aware of this, let the shorts do the job. And us enjoy the squeeze
    Prime to faith it will be

    Posted via CB10
    03-24-13 02:40 PM
  6. Bugmapper's Avatar
    Okay. So I'm one of the people that are hoping / planning for some kind of squeeze (but I'm still long too, I just find the shorting a bit more suspicious than normal). Anyway, since I can't pay attention to the SP every minute, and I often can't react fast enough to take advantage of most of the spikes and dips, I was thinking that I will put in a sell order for all my shares at say... $100.00 good until end of April.

    Now, I know that many of you will think that is just silly /naive but I prefer to think of it as preparing for the best and thinking positive.

    So, if anyone else thinks there is a realistic (albeit slim) chance for a squeeze in the next few weeks, how high do you think it would likely go? I know, I know... This is highly unlikely to happen, but hypothetically speaking, how high do you think it would spike? Is $100 too high? $50? $200?
    Markymark 23 likes this.
    03-24-13 03:06 PM
  7. crohns's Avatar
    I keep thinking of buying shares every day. One of these days i need to bite the bullet and get some. I think it will bounce back. Not to the past glory days but i think it could turn into a nice investment.
    Bugmapper likes this.
    03-24-13 03:14 PM
  8. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Okay. So I'm one of the people that are hoping / planning for some kind of squeeze (but I'm still long too, I just find the shorting a bit more suspicious than normal). Anyway, since I can't pay attention to the SP every minute, and I often can't react fast enough to take advantage of most of the spikes and dips, I was thinking that I will put in a sell order for all my shares at say... $100.00 good until end of April.

    Now, I know that many of you will think that is just silly /naive but I prefer to think of it as preparing for the best and thinking positive.

    So, if anyone else thinks there is a realistic (albeit slim) chance for a squeeze in the next few weeks, how high do you think it would likely go? I know, I know... This is highly unlikely to happen, but hypothetically speaking, how high do you think it would spike? Is $100 too high? $50? $200?
    Volkswagen went from $200 to $499 I believe.
    DragonFlyer and Markymark 23 like this.
    03-24-13 03:23 PM
  9. Andrew4life's Avatar
    Okay. So I'm one of the people that are hoping / planning for some kind of squeeze (but I'm still long too, I just find the shorting a bit more suspicious than normal). Anyway, since I can't pay attention to the SP every minute, and I often can't react fast enough to take advantage of most of the spikes and dips, I was thinking that I will put in a sell order for all my shares at say... $100.00 good until end of April.

    Now, I know that many of you will think that is just silly /naive but I prefer to think of it as preparing for the best and thinking positive.

    So, if anyone else thinks there is a realistic (albeit slim) chance for a squeeze in the next few weeks, how high do you think it would likely go? I know, I know... This is highly unlikely to happen, but hypothetically speaking, how high do you think it would spike? Is $100 too high? $50? $200?
    Based on the best possible estimate, the maximum price this will go to by year end, is around $60. (based on misek's best case scenario estimate) .
    This translates to a max of $20-25 MAX! by the end of April. I think more realistically, we will see $20 if things go well after next week's ER.

    Volkswagen went from $200 to $499 I believe.
    That wasn't really a "Natural" short squeeze. The circumstances are very different.


    Posted via CB10
    03-24-13 03:27 PM
  10. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Based on the best possible estimate, the maximum price this will go to by year end, is around $60. (based on misek's best case scenario estimate) .
    This translates to a max of $20-25 MAX! by the end of April. I think more realistically, we will see $20 if things go well after next week's ER.



    That wasn't really a "Natural" short squeeze. The circumstances are very different.


    Posted via CB10

    Worst case, this could go to $10 or less. At least temporarily.

    Keep in mind that on Friday this thing dropped $2+ on virtually no news. Imagine where it could go on what is interpreted as bad news.
    03-24-13 03:43 PM
  11. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Thanks but man that was one boring interview.

    I listened again and I just don't like it when the interviewer is gushing over him like a school girl...lol

    He seems pretty relaxed though.
    Last edited by Charles Martin1; 03-24-13 at 05:22 PM.
    03-24-13 03:51 PM
  12. fedakd's Avatar
    2$+ on no news? Have you been reading what the American Media, WSJ, and CNBC has been saying. You are woefully inaccurate here!

    P.S. Volkswagen went to over $800, but only because the majority of the stock was silently picked up by institutions. The shorts were under they impression they had more shares to cover with, but they didn't. This is not the same case with BBRY; however, we are becoming very close to levels where the short float is greater than the shares available in day to day trading (obviously based on the premise institutions aren't trading, and Watsa et all are long only).

    Free float: ~484M shares
    Institutions: ~261M shares
    Shorts: ~147M (more if you count TSX)



    Worst case, this could go to $10 or less. At least temporarily.

    Keep in mind that on Friday this thing dropped $2+ on virtually no news. Imagine where it could go on what is interpreted as bad news.
    03-24-13 03:53 PM
  13. bungaboy's Avatar
    Every time I hear Thorsten Heins speak I hear my shares rise. He is a class act to be sure,
    Shanerredflag and cezley like this.
    03-24-13 03:54 PM
  14. Kid Vibe's Avatar
    There will be no short squeeze. Just sit back and hope this thing goes to 20 by next month.

    2700 Lined up North American businesses to use BB... Also next earnings (June) report should account for:

    The 1 000 000 orders
    German Government
    U/S sales
    Indonesia
    Possible other institutions (DoD etc.)

    That to me is the kicker...
    lcjr likes this.
    03-24-13 04:05 PM
  15. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    2$+ on no news? Have you been reading what the American Media, WSJ, and CNBC has been saying. You are woefully inaccurate here!

    P.S. Volkswagen went to over $800, but only because the majority of the stock was silently picked up by institutions. The shorts were under they impression they had more shares to cover with, but they didn't. This is not the same case with BBRY; however, we are becoming very close to levels where the short float is greater than the shares available in day to day trading (obviously based on the premise institutions aren't trading, and Watsa et all are long only).

    Free float: ~484M shares
    Institutions: ~261M shares
    Shorts: ~147M (more if you count TSX)
    I wouldn't call any of that news. So are you saying this thing can't / won't fall to $10 or less?

    Compared to the sh ! t from Friday, a much anticipated ER that delivers mediocrity will be real news. Christ man, December's ER did well to blow away expectations but fell down in one area that was not even factually driven. Think of what can happen in an ER that is going to be as complicated as this one.
    03-24-13 04:11 PM
  16. Kid Vibe's Avatar
    I wouldn't call any of that news. So are you saying this thing can't / won't fall to $10 or less?

    Compared to the sh ! t from Friday, a much anticipated ER that delivers mediocrity will be real news. Christ man, December's ER did well to blow away expectations but fell down in one area that was not even factually driven. Think of what can happen in an ER that is going to be as complicated as this one.
    Agreed. Almost makes me feel like I missed a good chance of profit when it was over 17 on Friday morning... Damn. Everytime.

    As a first time investor, I mentioned previously that I felt the market is ****ed. Friday confirmed my hypothesis in that people dumped shares on evidence that was miniscule. ****, the no-line up scenario seemed to have a bigger impact on the stock than the record order just last week.



    And here is a good read.
    Why Did The BlackBerry Share Price Take A Hit, Friday? - Forbes
    03-24-13 04:13 PM
  17. fedakd's Avatar
    Let's agree to disagree on what we believe to be "news", then.

    Losing 1M subs, and TH absolutely botching the service revenue question is cause for major concern. Especially when you consider that service revenue is the company's high margin, cash cow. Providing approx $1B/quarter, they have covered the majority of the firm's operating expenses. TH being unable to explicitly state the future of them is cause for concern, and the exact reason the shorts took advantage of BlackBerry in December's Q3 earnings call.

    Agree with you on the no-line up scenarios 100%. The market is completely irrational. However, when huge blocks of stock (3M) plus shares are shorted in tandem with awful news reports from CNBC / WSJ, stops are hit on the way down, and panic ensues. That is exactly what happened on Friday! To believe that a company will not be successful because there are no line-ups, 2 hours into the morning, on a workday, is absolutely ridiculous.

    I wouldn't call any of that news. So are you saying this thing can't / won't fall to $10 or less?

    Compared to the sh ! t from Friday, a much anticipated ER that delivers mediocrity will be real news. Christ man, December's ER did well to blow away expectations but fell down in one area that was not even factually driven. Think of what can happen in an ER that is going to be as complicated as this one.
    bungaboy and Markymark 23 like this.
    03-24-13 04:17 PM
  18. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    There will be no short squeeze. Just sit back and hope this thing goes to 20 by next month.

    2700 Lined up North American businesses to use BB... Also next earnings (June) report should account for:

    The 1 000 000 orders
    German Government
    U/S sales
    Indonesia
    Possible other institutions (DoD etc.)

    That to me is the kicker...
    Yip. My feeling as well. I find it troublesome when everyone is salivating over a possible squeeze when this will be one very complicated transitional ER that has many intersections to quite a broad of outcomes.

    Just try and be grounded and accept that this thing can tank temporarily and take another 3 months or longer to see much life breathed into it.
    03-24-13 04:18 PM
  19. raysgrumpy's Avatar
    There will be no short squeeze. Just sit back and hope this thing goes to 20 by next month.

    2700 Lined up North American businesses to use BB... Also next earnings (June) report should account for:

    The 1 000 000 orders
    German Government
    U/S sales
    Indonesia
    Possible other institutions (DoD etc.)

    That to me is the kicker...
    I thought the huge order was for BB10, not the Z10 ,and the majority of the US business and DOD would wait for the Q10? There is no indication that the Q10 will be available before June here.
    Kid Vibe likes this.
    03-24-13 04:20 PM
  20. morganplus8's Avatar
    Worst case, this could go to $10 or less. At least temporarily.

    Keep in mind that on Friday this thing dropped $2+ on virtually no news. Imagine where it could go on what is interpreted as bad news.

    We were down $ .10/shr this past week in a dull market. Why expect so much more from this company ahead of some very important numbers is beyond me. I would be happy if we can hold $ 15 and pop on positive news on Thursday setting us up for the Q10 in a couple of more weeks. The sales projections posted in this thread of 1/phone/week from AT&T alone are surprising considering Q10 is coming right around the corner. Heins isn't excited for nothing, he isn't talking trash against Samsung and that other phone company, he is seeing the numbers and loves them. Can't wait for those numbers!
    03-24-13 04:21 PM
  21. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Let's agree to disagree on what we believe to be "news", then.

    Losing 1M subs, and TH absolutely botching the service revenue question is cause for major concern. Especially when you consider that service revenue is the company's high margin, cash cow. Providing approx $1B/quarter, they have covered the majority of the firm's operating expensets. TH being unable to explicitly state the future of them is cause for concern, and the exact reason the shorts took advantage of BlackBerry in December's Q3 earnings call.
    Yes but that was one issue. There will be many things scrutinized in this ER. I suppose my point is, this ER is much more risky than the December ER. Be careful with your money if you're not in it for the long haul.
    03-24-13 04:22 PM
  22. raysgrumpy's Avatar
    We were down $ .10/shr this past week in a dull market. Why expect so much more from this company ahead of some very important numbers is beyond me. I would be happy if we can hold $ 15 and pop on positive news on Thursday setting us up for the Q10 in a couple of more weeks. The sales projections posted in this thread of 1/phone/week from AT&T alone are surprising considering Q10 is coming right around the corner. Heins isn't excited for nothing, he isn't talking trash against Samsung and that other phone company, he is seeing the numbers and loves them. Can't wait for those numbers!
    Q10 in a couple weeks? I've seen one report from a German site that said it would be available at the end of April in the UK. That probably means another 2 months until the US
    03-24-13 04:32 PM
  23. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Let's agree to disagree on what we believe to be "news", then.

    Losing 1M subs, and TH absolutely botching the service revenue question is cause for major concern. Especially when you consider that service revenue is the company's high margin, cash cow. Providing approx $1B/quarter, they have covered the majority of the firm's operating expenses. TH being unable to explicitly state the future of them is cause for concern, and the exact reason the shorts took advantage of BlackBerry in December's Q3 earnings call.

    Agree with you on the no-line up scenarios 100%. The market is completely irrational. However, when huge blocks of stock (3M) plus shares are shorted in tandem with awful news reports from CNBC / WSJ, stops are hit on the way down, and panic ensues. That is exactly what happened on Friday! To believe that a company will not be successful because there are no line-ups, 2 hours into the morning, on a workday, is absolutely ridiculous.
    I just like to look at best case worst case scenarios. I see a lot more upside and accept that there will be days when this thing could lose 20-30% on temporary drops. Next week may be one of those times but I am confident that by September we will be in a fantastic place.
    BlackistheBerry and bungaboy like this.
    03-24-13 04:33 PM
  24. AlexejKir's Avatar
    We were down $ .10/shr this past week in a dull market. Why expect so much more from this company ahead of some very important numbers is beyond me. I would be happy if we can hold $ 15 and pop on positive news on Thursday setting us up for the Q10 in a couple of more weeks. The sales projections posted in this thread of 1/phone/week from AT&T alone are surprising considering Q10 is coming right around the corner. Heins isn't excited for nothing, he isn't talking trash against Samsung and that other phone company, he is seeing the numbers and loves them. Can't wait for those numbers!
    I would be very careful with ER...Did some research on past performance after ER. Same cases all over. Few days before ER, huge dump followed by some healthy move up with another huge dump right after ER and then followed by upside. (no matter how good or bad ER was)This can scare a lot of ppl and can trigger a lot of stops if people are not ready. I believe in BBRY long term, however I will most probably close my position early next week and will wait for the dump to get in.
    I am hoping that we bounce off 14,70 area into 15,50ish before ER. - thats where I will close some positions I opened at 14,5. and will wait to see what happens.
    BlackistheBerry likes this.
    03-24-13 04:50 PM
  25. Kid Vibe's Avatar
    We were down $ .10/shr this past week in a dull market. Why expect so much more from this company ahead of some very important numbers is beyond me. I would be happy if we can hold $ 15 and pop on positive news on Thursday setting us up for the Q10 in a couple of more weeks. The sales projections posted in this thread of 1/phone/week from AT&T alone are surprising considering Q10 is coming right around the corner. Heins isn't excited for nothing, he isn't talking trash against Samsung and that other phone company, he is seeing the numbers and loves them. Can't wait for those numbers!
    Heins does seem extremely confident. Which is a good sign IMO. He is really laid back when BB faces boatloads of media bashing. I really do hope the numbers exceed 1 000 000 sales this quarter.

    I myself have never experienced an ER. What I've heard can happen are dips due to people profit taking if there is a build up just before than... So who knows really... It's the end of the month and people will need money to pay bills!
    03-24-13 04:53 PM
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