View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

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  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    702 62.51%
  • No

    421 37.49%
  1. b121's Avatar
    Pretty sure the settlement was both sides decided to take their balls and go home. If there had been a major financial settlement BB would not have waited for the earnings announcement. My guess is if there had been a settlement Facebook would have just purchased the patents from BB as a way to settle the issue.
    During the earnings call, I was wondering if FB was the confidential party they were negotiating the patent sale with, hence we didn't hear more. Time will tell, I guess.
    Last edited by b121; 04-11-21 at 03:28 PM.
    jsocan likes this.
    04-11-21 08:55 AM
  2. Seadog83's Avatar
    Something I don't understand, is that why would a big patent sale help with profitability? Certainly cash flow, but if I don't work, yet own a $300k house, and sell it, my cash flow has certainly increased by 300k, yet my income is 0. Why would the patents be any different? The have a billion in patents on the books, and they convert those to cash, the sum of the asset value is unchanged, just the form. Or is it entirely from the fact that unlike a house, patents are notoriously difficult to value, so the market is simply assigning a value of near zero, and a sale puts it into far more quantifiable terms?
    dusdal and rarsen like this.
    04-11-21 10:24 AM
  3. b121's Avatar
    It's a good question. I was assuming new licensing revenue is being defered during negotiations, and understood some future stream would continue (even potentially grow for a period of time) post the deal. However, we don't know how much. That was my thoughts on how it would impact the P&L. Anyone have other ideas?
    04-11-21 03:32 PM
  4. curves2000's Avatar
    Someone with a better accounting background than me may be better off to explain this than me, but the way I'm looking at the patent sale and the resulting loss of revenue as is.

    If you own a $300k home and currently rent that home out for $2000 a month, that $24k a year revenue is yours to put onto your books.

    If the sale of your $300k home is in the final stages of being completed, with the some details being ironed out and a high probability of completion of sale, you can't count on $24k a year revenue going forward. The house isn't yours to claim revenue from if the sale goes through.

    Blackberry was getting some solid revenue from their licensing deals and a portion of that will be going away if the patent sale goes through.

    Posted via CB10
    dusdal and rarsen like this.
    04-11-21 04:13 PM
  5. conite's Avatar
    Someone with a better accounting background than me may be better off to explain this than me, but the way I'm looking at the patent sale and the resulting loss of revenue as is.

    If you own a $300k home and currently rent that home out for $2000 a month, that $24k a year revenue is yours to put onto your books.

    If the sale of your $300k home is in the final stages of being completed, with the some details being ironed out and a high probability of completion of sale, you can't count on $24k a year revenue going forward. The house isn't yours to claim revenue from if the sale goes through.

    Blackberry was getting some solid revenue from their licensing deals and a portion of that will be going away if the patent sale goes through.

    Posted via CB10
    It's all math, and I'm sure BlackBerry has a calculator too. A simple net present value analysis is all that is required.

    For you to do it, you would have to determine how many more years are left on the patents, and what trajectory the value of the patents are experiencing.
    04-11-21 08:00 PM
  6. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    It's all math, and I'm sure BlackBerry has a calculator too. A simple net present value analysis is all that is required.

    For you to do it, you would have to determine how many more years are left on the patents, and what trajectory the value of the patents are experiencing.
    But we know many of those patents are older and nearing the end of their short life span.... and Chen's been warning that IP was not expected to do as well as it has these past few years.

    Too me it sounds like the negations aren't going as well as he he hoped... they are having to give up more of the ongoing revenue and there is a slight possibility that the sale might not go forward.

    If Chen get's his $400 million... for the majority of the patents, so end the talk of "billions" in value for patents. But it does give him money to invest in expanding their products - seems his focus is now on Automotive. Give them some breathing room and it helps to define the value of the company - which might be the true goal.
    04-12-21 07:32 AM
  7. Corbu's Avatar
    PR:
    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...301266330.html
    The Government of Canada Selects BlackBerry for Secure Productivity and Secure Communications
    04-12-21 08:46 AM
  8. conite's Avatar
    PR:
    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...301266330.html
    The Government of Canada Selects BlackBerry for Secure Productivity and Secure Communications
    Blackberry Spark.
    rarsen and dusdal like this.
    04-12-21 08:51 AM
  9. Seadog83's Avatar
    But we know many of those patents are older and nearing the end of their short life span.... and Chen's been warning that IP was not expected to do as well as it has these past few years.

    Too me it sounds like the negations aren't going as well as he he hoped... they are having to give up more of the ongoing revenue and there is a slight possibility that the sale might not go forward.

    If Chen get's his $400 million... for the majority of the patents, so end the talk of "billions" in value for patents. But it does give him money to invest in expanding their products - seems his focus is now on Automotive. Give them some breathing room and it helps to define the value of the company - which might be the true goal.
    While I'll be first to admit Chen has disappointed on many fronts, to suggest things aren't going well is pure speculation. There are simply too many unknowns to make any sort of rational analysis. Story of BB I guess. Just like their "23/25 EV manufacturers". It sounds great, but we still have never got confirmation that that's for 100% of their vehicles. Me having a contract with a bank that serves 20% of Canadians sounds great, until you realize it just means I have an account there. Same thing with this gov't of Canada contract. Is that 100% of all civil servants? Or a handful of high security applications only? Their details imply this deal is worth somewhere between the 10s of thousands, and 10s of millions. Thanks. Based on past performance, I cynically have to lean towards the former.

    They've said that the average life remaining on their patents is about 10 years, and given that in the past they've been generating ~250m/yr from them, and now, given that they've suspended certain patent licensing due to this pending sale and otherwise anticipating ~100m/yr, that implies that for patents currently being discussed for sale are and generating revenue and worth a little under $1.5b. (10 x .15b, only discounted a few percent since we're in such a low interest rate environment). Again, this is just speculation upon speculation. The big questions (who, what, why, when, where, and how) and largely just giant question marks.
    04-13-21 03:01 AM
  10. Corbu's Avatar
    PR:
    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...301267479.html
    BlackBerry and IBM Canada Establish a New Partnership
    IBM will resell BlackBerry's industry leading platform, BlackBerry Spark, across Canada
    04-13-21 07:29 AM
  11. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    While I'll be first to admit Chen has disappointed on many fronts, to suggest things aren't going well is pure speculation. There are simply too many unknowns to make any sort of rational analysis. Story of BB I guess. Just like their "23/25 EV manufacturers". It sounds great, but we still have never got confirmation that that's for 100% of their vehicles. Me having a contract with a bank that serves 20% of Canadians sounds great, until you realize it just means I have an account there. Same thing with this gov't of Canada contract. Is that 100% of all civil servants? Or a handful of high security applications only? Their details imply this deal is worth somewhere between the 10s of thousands, and 10s of millions. Thanks. Based on past performance, I cynically have to lean towards the former.

    They've said that the average life remaining on their patents is about 10 years, and given that in the past they've been generating ~250m/yr from them, and now, given that they've suspended certain patent licensing due to this pending sale and otherwise anticipating ~100m/yr, that implies that for patents currently being discussed for sale are and generating revenue and worth a little under $1.5b. (10 x .15b, only discounted a few percent since we're in such a low interest rate environment). Again, this is just speculation upon speculation. The big questions (who, what, why, when, where, and how) and largely just giant question marks.
    But that ten years was from two years ago... so now it's only eight years (40-F in February 2019). Which means nothing, as it's really only the patents generating revenue that matter - so how much life do they have left?

    Agree.... all we have is continuing speculation.

    I've seen valuations from folks on Seeking Alpha that try to put their value $5 - $8 Billion, and then we have the unnamed source at The Globe back in October of 2020, saying Chen's expecting $450 Million. I agree that if IP revenues were stable and would stay that way for another eight years.... $1.5 Billion is too cheap.

    But it's all just guesses....
    04-13-21 07:57 AM
  12. app_Developer's Avatar
    I agree that if IP revenues were stable

    But it's all just guesses....
    Is the revenue of stable or is it even predicable? Can a buyer really extract $150M in rev in years 7 or 8? Or even earlier? It depends on the nature of the deals so far. How many were recurring? Did they prioritize the easier deals already (I would hope so if they are running their business correctly), so does that mean it will be much harder to extract value from these patents in the future?

    Who knows. Not a lot of transparency in any of this so far, so I don't think anyone can guess the numbers until someone actually buys them.
    04-13-21 03:19 PM
  13. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    Is the revenue of stable or is it even predicable? Can a buyer really extract $150M in rev in years 7 or 8? Or even earlier? It depends on the nature of the deals so far. How many were recurring? Did they prioritize the easier deals already (I would hope so if they are running their business correctly), so does that mean it will be much harder to extract value from these patents in the future?

    Who knows. Not a lot of transparency in any of this so far, so I don't think anyone can guess the numbers until someone actually buys them.
    Agree.... wait and see.

    In the end a big payout on the patents will be a short term boost the the stock. What they do with it, and how quickly it can be converted to some type of ongoing revenue.... that's the bigger question. Having $1.5 Billion in the bank is nice... but BlackBerry's been there before - but with "billions" in potential patent value mixed in there. Now it will be much clearer how to value BlackBerry.

    Best case is a $1.5 billion payout triggers WSB takes a 2nd look at pumping the stock again.... could make it over $30 for the short term. Still a lot of folks over there that are "involved" in BB... like it or not.
    04-13-21 03:43 PM
  14. The Big Picture's Avatar
    I think the problem with BlackBerry's share price is the company's shrinking revenue. I think right now it's an all or nothing high growth plan with IVY, failing that I don't see how BlackBerry shares price would go up in the future. I read that Google has a direct equivalent to IVY which also hurts the hope. I feel like it's going to be BB10 vs android all over again. ive been long since 2013
    04-13-21 03:53 PM
  15. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    I think the problem with BlackBerry's share price is the company's shrinking revenue. I think right now it's an all or nothing high growth plan with IVY, failing that I don't see how BlackBerry shares price would go up in the future. I read that Google has a direct equivalent to IVY which also hurts the hope. I feel like it's going to be BB10 vs android all over again. ive been long since 2013
    Spark could still become a revenue creator... but it's looking less and less likely. Have to see if this deal with the Canadian government is new revenue or just a recommitment of existing contracts. My guess is it won't mean much as Chen had to have known about it at the earnings call.... and still he warned about EPS going negative.

    But way too many question about IVY and BlackBerry position in Automotive in general...
    04-13-21 04:00 PM
  16. app_Developer's Avatar
    Agree.... wait and see.

    In the end a big payout on the patents will be a short term boost the the stock. What they do with it, and how quickly it can be converted to some type of ongoing revenue.... that's the bigger question. Having $1.5 Billion in the bank is nice... but BlackBerry's been there before - but with "billions" in potential patent value mixed in there. Now it will be much clearer how to value BlackBerry.

    Best case is a $1.5 billion payout triggers WSB takes a 2nd look at pumping the stock again.... could make it over $30 for the short term. Still a lot of folks over there that are "involved" in BB... like it or not.
    I’ll go on the record and say it won’t be $1.5B. I think it will be quite a bit less than that.

    Reasonable people will disagree. We can come back to this page in the thread when the sale happens.
    04-13-21 05:16 PM
  17. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    I’ll go on the record and say it won’t be $1.5B. I think it will be quite a bit less than that.

    Reasonable people will disagree. We can come back to this page in the thread when the sale happens.
    Oh I agree... I'm thinking the number The Globe quoted an insider repeating what Chen had told folks internally might be more on the money.
    04-14-21 08:08 AM
  18. FeitaInc's Avatar
    Appreciated for sharing.
    If you made the jump with NFG, then congrats.
    04-20-21 01:53 PM
  19. rarsen's Avatar
    Just got the ACV231 update for my KEY2 from Bell Canada. Any idea was was in it ?
    04-20-21 06:50 PM
  20. conite's Avatar
    Just got the ACV231 update for my KEY2 from Bell Canada. Any idea was was in it ?
    Same as always. Security patch.
    rarsen likes this.
    04-20-21 07:05 PM
  21. Corbu's Avatar
    https://www.iam-media.com/patents/ja...portfolio-sale

    Japan’s NEC is latest to pick up Blackberry patents ahead of planned portfolio sale

    NEC makes opportunistic acquisition of rights related to mobile device security and speech-to-text conversion ahead of a mega-sale being negotiated by the Canadian company.
    04-23-21 07:35 AM
  22. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    https://www.iam-media.com/patents/ja...portfolio-sale

    Japan’s NEC is latest to pick up Blackberry patents ahead of planned portfolio sale

    NEC makes opportunistic acquisition of rights related to mobile device security and speech-to-text conversion ahead of a mega-sale being negotiated by the Canadian company.
    Can't read without a subscription.... Going to assume it was a deal over patents they were already licensing... wanting to keep those patents out of the negations. Hopefully Blackberry got more value out of them this way, but might be another impact to ongoing revenues.
    04-23-21 08:02 AM
  23. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    Pomerantz Law Firm Investigates Claims On Behalf of Investors BlackBerry Limited - BBl

    Didn't see this mentioned last week...

    Doesn't mention a specific claim (Q4 Revenue shortfall?), but if you want to join their class action claim... there is a way to sign up. Personally I think Chen might have mislead folks with his guidance that wasn't guidance for this fiscal year. But he has warned the IP would be declining, and we know how important it was. SPARK has always been a long shot and might take time to grow.

    Stock is getting some support right now - seen it mentioned more over on WSB, so maybe that's helping.
    04-26-21 02:06 PM
  24. rarsen's Avatar
    Some positivism from QUESTRADE : BlackBerry Ltd forms bullish "Continuation Wedge" chart pattern
    Apr 23, 2021

    Trading Central has detected a "Continuation Wedge (Bullish)" chart pattern formed on BlackBerry Ltd (BB:NYSE). This bullish signal indicates that the stock price may rise from the close of $8.85 to the range of $11.50 - $12.20. The pattern formed over 24 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved, according to standard principles of technical analysis.

    Tells Me: After a temporary interruption, the prior uptrend is set to continue. A Continuation Wedge (Bullish) represents a temporary interruption to an uptrend, taking the shape of two converging trendlines both slanted downward against the trend. During this time the bears attempt to win over the bulls, but in the end the bulls triumph as the break above the upper trendline signals a continuation of the prior uptrend.
    Corbu and jsocan like this.
    04-26-21 06:43 PM
  25. Corbu's Avatar
    PR:
    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...301278502.html

    BlackBerry Strengthens Management Team and Aligns Business Units to Increase Focus on Growth in Key Cybersecurity and IoT Market Opportunities

    Tom Eacobacci Promoted to President and Chief Operating Officer; Mattias Eriksson Appointed President of BlackBerry IoT Business Unit
    04-28-21 08:46 AM
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