View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1120. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    699 62.41%
  • No

    421 37.59%
  1. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    I agree 100% but that was decided in 2011-2012 time period long before Chen entered the picture. Fairfax launching it's original bid to go private and shopping it around for competing bids sent a strong message to BOD that Fairfax was calling the shots and there wasn't any other white knight.

    There wasn't any reason to bring company private @ $9USD per share then. I suspect that $6USD per share now looks pretty good to all parties involved before Fairfax sells off the large pieces with a smaller loss than if BlackBerry had gone under in 2013 or so.

    Posted via CB10
    Do think Thor and BOD were panicked when they accepted FairFax's "deal". But as you said no one else seemed to be in a position to make a better offer in the time frame they had. And if Chen and Prem had taken more time to look at BlackBerry... might not have gotten that offer.

    Timing this time.... these next two ER might not be very good. If Prem has insider info, he'll factor that into his offer.... now or later.
    06-02-20 10:27 AM
  2. Corbu's Avatar
    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/fairfax-...tion-1.1444453
    Fairfax shoots down BlackBerry deal-talks speculation

    “Fairfax is not currently making a bid, or engaged in making a bid, for BlackBerry,” said Fairfax general counsel Derek Bulas in an email to BNN Bloomberg Tuesday.
    06-02-20 10:29 AM
  3. EchoTango's Avatar
    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/fairfax-...tion-1.1444453
    Fairfax shoots down BlackBerry deal-talks speculation

    “Fairfax is not currently making a bid, or engaged in making a bid, for BlackBerry,” said Fairfax general counsel Derek Bulas in an email to BNN Bloomberg Tuesday.
    Not surprised Fairfax is not interested is buying out the remaining shares. I suspect there would be a huge outcry from both Fairfax internally and externally from the major minority shareholders, including the Canadian government. Fairfax has to be looking at the losses on Blackberry and increasing their investment on this poorly performing position has to be highly controversial and debated topic. Logic seems to have prevailed.
    rarsen likes this.
    06-02-20 11:43 AM
  4. Chuck Finley69's Avatar
    Not surprised Fairfax is not interested is buying out the remaining shares. I suspect there would be a huge outcry from both Fairfax internally and externally from the major minority shareholders, including the Canadian government. Fairfax has to be looking at the losses on Blackberry and increasing their investment on this poorly performing position has to be highly controversial and debated topic. Logic seems to have prevailed.
    Fairfax shareholders will be unhappy either way. If Fairfax acquires BlackBerry to exit privately, losses or possible gains. Not acquiring the rest of BlackBerry means it was a bad purchase from the beginning and means that Fairfax doesn't plan on helping the company further.

    There's no logic prevailing. This doesn't improve any story for BlackBerry Limited as it does nothing to help the current situation. If anything, this message could signal an erosion of support that may give partners and vendors pause. I strongly believe this may have been a pump and dump story. That's also bad since no comment would have been preference over denial comment.

    Posted via CB10
    06-02-20 01:28 PM
  5. FeitaInc's Avatar
    interesting to see that the comments from Fairfax only seems to have spurred the SP on so far. hope me saying that didn't jinx it.
    06-02-20 01:32 PM
  6. Chuck Finley69's Avatar
    interesting to see that the comments from Fairfax only seems to have spurred the SP on so far. hope me saying that didn't jinx it.
    More than likely orders placed by people who saw the first story but not the second denial story. DIY participants notoriously buy high and sell low because that's what emotionally attached money does.

    Step back from the bar, outside from the dance floor with it's techno beat and beautiful women. Still the same building and bar that was in trouble shutdown for the last month, unexplainably losing money before covid-19 and riots ever happened?

    I've been a fan of Chen saving the company and respecting the significance. Doesn't change the enormous risk with very limited upside

    Posted via CB10
    06-02-20 01:43 PM
  7. FeitaInc's Avatar
    More than likely orders placed by people who saw the first story but not the second denial story. DIY participants notoriously buy high and sell low because that's what emotionally attached money does.
    or perhaps Mr Market thinks that "that somebody-is-buying-BB-rumour seems legit. so if Fairfax isn't buying it, who is? Amazon? MicroSoft? Ford? I'll beat them to the punch!!!" :P
    06-02-20 02:00 PM
  8. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    More than likely orders placed by people who saw the first story but not the second denial story. DIY participants notoriously buy high and sell low because that's what emotionally attached money does.

    Step back from the bar, outside from the dance floor with it's techno beat and beautiful women. Still the same building and bar that was in trouble shutdown for the last month, unexplainably losing money before covid-19 and riots ever happened?

    I've been a fan of Chen saving the company and respecting the significance. Doesn't change the enormous risk with very limited upside

    Posted via CB10
    He did the best he could with what he had.

    Imagine if Prem had been in control of the BOD back when Mike and Jim stepped aside for the sock puppet. About $4 Billion extra dollars and two years.... Slack didn't even exist back then, could BBM have been BlackBerry's business communications tool?
    06-02-20 02:11 PM
  9. FeitaInc's Avatar
    He did the best he could with what he had.

    Imagine if Prem had been in control of the BOD back when Mike and Jim stepped aside for the sock puppet. About $4 Billion extra dollars and two years.... Slack didn't even exist back then, could BBM have been BlackBerry's business communications tool?
    Personally I think the likelihood of BBM being more akin to Google's RCS initiative is a couple of orders of magnitude greater than BBM morphing into Slack.

    That said, I did tweet JC to invest in Slack a long time ago. sadly he didn't heed my advice :P
    06-02-20 02:46 PM
  10. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    Personally I think the likelihood of BBM being more akin to Google's RCS initiative is a couple of orders of magnitude greater than BBM morphing into Slack.

    That said, I did tweet JC to invest in Slack a long time ago. sadly he didn't heed my advice :P
    I'm just thinking what BBM could have become... it was a key business communication tool, back in 2007, 2008, 2009. But that's really when it needed to go crossplatfrom. I know SLACK wasn't even a thing till 2013...

    Just wishful thinking... about roads not taken.
    FeitaInc likes this.
    06-02-20 03:24 PM
  11. Corbu's Avatar
    PR:
    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...301069855.html
    Dedrone and BlackBerry Partner to Counter Unauthorized Drone Activity
    06-03-20 07:57 AM
  12. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    PR:
    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...301069855.html
    Dedrone and BlackBerry Partner to Counter Unauthorized Drone Activity
    Have no idea if this means millions, tens of thousands or a few thousand to BlackBerry's bottom line.... but it sure sounds cool.
    06-03-20 08:03 AM
  13. EchoTango's Avatar
    or perhaps Mr Market thinks that "that somebody-is-buying-BB-rumour seems legit. so if Fairfax isn't buying it, who is? Amazon? MicroSoft? Ford? I'll beat them to the punch!!!" :P
    Volumes yesterday were quite impressive, 20 million vs. the usual 7 million. Someone took a big position but the real test will be if the volumes are sustained over the next few days. If not, then it was just short term speculators capitalizing on the false rumor, probably started by whoever this is. We'll see.

    On a related note, when Fairfax buyout rumours surface I always overlook the fact that they only own ~8.5% of the shares and are not even the largest shareholder, they're #2. It would be a huge financial "gulp", even for them to buy the other 91.5%. Of course they do have the covertable debenture which would help, but even with that, a major cash outlay.
    Redzinaldas likes this.
    06-03-20 08:38 AM
  14. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    Volumes yesterday were quite impressive, 20 million vs. the usual 7 million. Someone took a big position but the real test will be if the volumes are sustained over the next few days. If not, then it was just short term speculators capitalizing on the false rumor, probably started by whoever this is. We'll see.

    On a related note, when Fairfax buyout rumours surface I always overlook the fact that they only own ~8.5% of the shares and are not even the largest shareholder, they're #2. It would be a huge financial "gulp", even for them to buy the other 91.5%. Of course they do have the covertable debenture which would help, but even with that, a major cash outlay.
    I doubt it would really be a Fairfax buyout, but a group lead by FairFax... including the other majority shareholders.

    They'll only do it, so save what they have invested already... "in for a penny, in for a pound". They aren't going to capitalize on some insider "breakout story", as some here think. It's only going to happen if there is no other option... because business like QNX see a big downturn due to COVID, while UEM Sale Team still struggle and Cylance's growth continues to shrinks.

    If that happens then by the end of the year I'd expect this "group" to step in to secure some value from the stock. Sometime before they burn all their "free" cash.

    Hopefully auto market makes a quick recover and QNX revenues are able to remain on course, maybe BlackBerry's work from home software is making a big impact and Cylance finds it's path. Many software companies are doing pretty good even with the downturn.... we will see in a few weeks how BlackBerry is doing.
    06-03-20 09:53 AM
  15. elucianic's Avatar
    Volumes yesterday were quite impressive, 20 million vs. the usual 7 million. Someone took a big position but the real test will be if the volumes are sustained over the next few days. If not, then it was just short term speculators capitalizing on the false rumor, probably started by whoever this is. We'll see.

    On a related note, when Fairfax buyout rumours surface I always overlook the fact that they only own ~8.5% of the shares and are not even the largest shareholder, they're #2. It would be a huge financial "gulp", even for them to buy the other 91.5%. Of course they do have the covertable debenture which would help, but even with that, a major cash outlay.
    It could be the opposite of what you think. Usually, when a rumor is false, it means that someone is creating it for a purpose and if you look at the trend, when the institutions leaved BB in the last Q, 48% compared to 52%, you will realize that someone has probably liquidated his "big position ”.
    06-03-20 10:27 AM
  16. Corbu's Avatar
    MKM Partners

    BlackBerry (BB, Neutral, $6.00)

    Making Corrections To Our Model, Increasing Fair Value Estimate to $6

    Fair Value Estimate $6.00 Prior $4.50

    • Correcting FY21 estimates. We are correcting an error in our FY21 revenue estimate. Our published FY21 revenue estimate was above consensus by a high-teens percentage, and our FY21 EPS estimate was about double what it should have been. We are correcting this and making other model adjustments including raising GMs forecasts. Our actual 1QFY21 (May) revenue forecast is $221mn and our new EPS estimate is break-even. These numbers compare to consensus at $220mn / ($0.01).

    • Adjusting FY22 forecasts. In addition to fixing FY21 estimates, we are slightly reducing FY22 forecasts as a result of the COVID-19 headwinds the company discussed on the last earnings call. These headwinds are particularly acute in the Auto/QNX business that makes up ~20% of company sales, but are also present in all the other revenue lines including Enterprise, Cylance and Licensing. We are lowering our FY22 revenue forecast by 3% to $1.10bn. Our new FY22 EPS estimate of $0.16, compares to our prior model at $0.18.

    • Checks into the business. 1QFY21 revenues are expected to come in down significantly year-over-year, and quarter-over-quarter, due to COVID-19. Based on our checks, we think trends are roughly in line with the conditions discussed by management on the 4QFY20 call. Enterprise and Cylance, which make up ~50% of company sales, enjoy some tailwind from the increase in work from home (WFH). However, the WFH surge in 1QFY21 is likely already starting to moderate going into 2QFY21. We also think BlackBerry is experiencing extended sales cycles with new prospects, since it is more difficult to close new customer business when communicating remotely. On the other hand, it should see some new paying customers in 2QFY21 that signed up for free trials during 1QFY21.

    • Auto and Licensing. 1HFY21 is likely to be particularly tough for the QNX business at BlackBerry due to the significant slow down in global Auto production. We expect a meaningful reduction in FY21 Auto-related revenues for the company compared to FY20. However, new design wins for advanced instrument clusters and self-driving capabilities continue to be on a positive track, according to our checks. Licensing revenues, which are ~30% of company total, are also likely to be down meaningfully year-over-year in FY21 against a tough comparison. COVID-19 is part of the reason for the slowness in Licensing sales this year since it is more difficult to negotiate agreements when there are travel restrictions.

    • Increasing fair value estimate to $6. We are raising our FV estimate for BB to $6, from $4.50. The $4.50 estimate was based on only 2.0x EV-to-FY22 sales, which was probably too low for a high GMs software company like BlackBerry. Our new FV estimate of $6 is based on 2.7x EV-to- FY22 sales. We think this is a more appropriate valuation given the company's business profile.

    • Maintaining Neutral. BB is up 26% over the past month, versus the NASDAQ up 12%, as the stock has bounced off the bottom, and there have been headlines about patient major investors and new additions to the management team. We are maintaining our Neutral rating since 1HFY21 looks to be fairly tough from a revenue perspective, partially due to COVID-19. In order to get more constructive, we would have to see better market share performance in Enterprise and end-point Security. We would also want improved visibility to better revenue trends in Auto and Licensing. We believe there are enough current uncertainties to remain on the sidelines.

    Key risks to our thesis include:
    The Cylance unit could underperform, which is something that often happens following an acquisition.
    IP licensing sales were very strong in FY20, with tough compares for FY21.
    The Auto and Asset Tracking businesses could take longer to develop, and could drive less near- and medium-term growth for the company than anticipated.
    A strategic buyer may be interested in purchasing BB above our fair value estimate.
    rarsen, rampagingpanda and JLagoon like this.
    06-03-20 10:30 AM
  17. Corbu's Avatar
    06-03-20 10:34 AM
  18. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    It could be the opposite of what you think. Usually, when a rumor is false, it means that someone is creating it for a purpose and if you look at the trend, when the institutions leaved BB in the last Q, 48% compared to 52%, you will realize that someone has probably liquidated his "big position ”.
    Yeah it would be interesting to know who took this opportunity to sell....
    06-03-20 11:19 AM
  19. rarsen's Avatar
    General information:

    Gartner says smartphone sales plummeted 20 percent in Q1 2020
    https://www.zdnet.com/article/gartne...percent-in-q1/

    Cybersecurity warning: Hackers are targeting your smartphone as way into the company network
    https://www.zdnet.com/article/cybers...&cid=716503125
    06-03-20 12:32 PM
  20. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    General information:

    Gartner says smartphone sales plummeted 20 percent in Q1 2020
    https://www.zdnet.com/article/gartne...percent-in-q1/

    Cybersecurity warning: Hackers are targeting your smartphone as way into the company network
    https://www.zdnet.com/article/cybers...&cid=716503125
    Yeah not going to be a good year for those already struggling with smartphone sales. It'll hurt everyone (well maybe not Xiaomi), but those it the "others" category might decided it's finally time to pull the plug.

    For any that think it's time for BlackBerry to get back into hardware, think again. Smart play is software and services, if you can offer what customer want.
    06-03-20 01:10 PM
  21. FeitaInc's Avatar
    have to say that I thought BB would fall much more today. hard to be pleased in seeing red numbers, but still.
    06-03-20 03:17 PM
  22. Corbu's Avatar
    06-04-20 11:06 AM
  23. FeitaInc's Avatar
    After having browsed through the BlackBerry executive team page on their webpage, I can't but help to notice that these two descriptions are strikingly similar:

    David Castignola is responsible for global sales including direct channels, ISV’s and alliances, customer support, professional services, product marketing and field marketing, for the BlackBerry Spark group.

    Tom Eacobacci is President of BlackBerry, responsible for sales, field marketing, engineering, and customer support for the BlackBerry Spark and BlackBerry IoT Solutions groups.
    Corbu and rarsen like this.
    06-04-20 01:41 PM
  24. FeitaInc's Avatar
    JC on LinkedIn:

    #DidYouKnow BlackBerry is a #leader in detecting malicious activity and correctly assigning it to specific tactics, according to the MITRE ATT&CK evaluation?

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares!]-0.jpg
    Corbu and rarsen like this.
    06-05-20 10:16 AM
  25. dusdal's Avatar
    Finally back to above my cost. Thanks to buying the dips I am around 7.20CAD average.

    Hoping some of the regulars are able to enjoy this recent inexplicable run. Hoping for revenues to support it this month.
    06-05-20 01:16 PM
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