View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

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1120. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    699 62.41%
  • No

    421 37.59%
  1. app_Developer's Avatar

    Finally I'm not sure why the stock is getting punished *yet again*. ... and the whole reason why you sold it off in the first place, shouldn't that be reason enough to leave it alone?
    I think of it differently. COVID is a horrible situation for the world and for a lot of families, mine included. But my job as an investor (especially with my children's money) is to get ready for the post-COVID bear market. And for that, I'm investing in companies that are most likely to grow significantly after COVID-19.

    So if Cylance isn't producing (and if it really is more hat than cattle, as I was starting to worry it might be), then it makes sense to me to sell what I have left of this thing and maximize my return on the hundreds of other companies that have a better growth or earnings story IMO.

    I was waiting for this report to see which way I'd go with this. I was focused on the Cylance number. Everything else is just a barely profitable, barely growing business. That's not interesting to me in any of my accounts with any horizon.
    03-31-20 08:11 PM
  2. b121's Avatar
    The current price is very painful. My assumption is that there are 2 things driving the valuation. First, I'm assuming there are not enough buyers to keep the stock stock up as people sell (can any of our technical wizards confirm?) and second, they didn't offer any positive short to mid term guidance. My take from the call is that they still have the right product strategy, have fixed their sales function, and are expanding to more verticals, which is positive. However, we're still waiting for them to execute and now COVID adds more risk to that equation. I'm moderately optimistic, but I'm a bad judge after 15 years😊. I'm planning to keep holding and see what happens.
    03-31-20 08:40 PM
  3. Corbu's Avatar
    BlackBerry Limited (BB) CEO John Chen on Q4 2020 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/433...all-transcript
    rarsen likes this.
    03-31-20 08:55 PM
  4. EchoTango's Avatar
    I feel I listened to a different call than some others here.

    Chen indicated that Cylance had Q-to-Q growth and that the integration with the ESS products is or is very close to being complete. Further, he also said the the companies have rationalized the two management/sales teams and now have a single focus. The GAAP EPS losses, as I said in an earlier post, seem (to me) to be related to the retirement of the convertible debentures, which can only make the company stronger financially for the medium and long term.

    We're now in after hours trading and the stock is down marginally, but after hours trading tends to be like the "wild west" until the market opens the next day and provides some direction. I suspect the more thoughtful investors/analysts are going to see the moves Blackberry has made plus the now second solid quarter in a row as real positives and treat the stock accordingly. The only wild card is the Covid-19 pandemic and how long the U.S. economy can withstand a virtual shutdown and the hope the current U.S. Government's relief bill's will have an equal offsetting effect.

    That one is anyone's guess.
    rarsen and JLagoon like this.
    03-31-20 09:07 PM
  5. shanhetao's Avatar
    Cylance sales shall be taken on the non-garp basis, which is essentially flat at 53mm. if ESS had high teen growth q2q like John Chen claim, which would be around 96.6-100mm. it suggest BTS has a huge drop, from 61mm to 27-30mm, more then 50% drop. I initially model BTS around 63mm. The difference is about 33-36mm.

    Personally, I think BTS will be back sooner or later. The key would be the growth of ESS and cylance. Chen does not provide any guidance on these two segment, which I am very disappointed.
    03-31-20 09:28 PM
  6. Bacon Munchers's Avatar
    Opinion article:

    BlackBerry Sees Hammer Chart Pattern: Time to Buy?
    https://old.nasdaq.com/article/black...y(1)-cm1305781
    This forms a candlestick that resembles a hammer, and it can suggest that the market has found a low point in the stock, and that better days are ahead.
    Hey, it would have been good for a quick day trade.
    Egads.
    04-01-20 12:21 AM
  7. FeitaInc's Avatar
    I’ll go out on a limb and say slightly up.
    pre-market tells me I'll be slightly off with that prediction. :P
    Corbu likes this.
    04-01-20 07:47 AM
  8. Corbu's Avatar
    BofA

    Daniel Bartus

    BlackBerry

    Mixed 4Q results as auto weakness hits QNX; no FY21 guidance provided

    Reiterate Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 4.50 USD | Price: 4.13 USD

    Worse than expected; cutting estimates and PO to $4.50

    Blackberry reported mixed 4Q results, with revenue/EPS of $291mn/9c vs consensus’ $295mn/4c. The core IoT segment sales disappointed at $127mn vs our $155mn estimate, and the Licensing revenues once again drove the strength at $108mn vs consensus’ $84mn. Outperformance in this high-margin segment and lower than expected S&M helped drive the EPS beat. Management attributed the IoT weakness to a slowdown in the QNX business as COVID-19 disruptions began to impact the auto market and major projects were delayed. Given the uncertainty across multiple business lines, management did not provide FY21 guidance except for the view that Licensing should decline roughly 24% YoY. We cut our estimates and lower our PO from $5 to $4.50 still based on roughly 2.2x our CY21E EV/Sales.

    Core IoT business down 15% YoY in 4Q

    Blackberry’s core IoT business (roughly 50% of sales) was particularly weak in 4Q, down 15% YoY. Management implied the declines were more pronounced for the QNX business (~35% of IoT sales) due to automotive market weakness. We are concerned with the magnitude of the weakness given that the macro situation has worsened since the 4Q close on February 29. The Enterprise business (~65% of IoT sales) turnaround also remains lackluster, down roughly 10% YoY in 4Q, per our estimates. Licensing sales growth is a bright spot, up 9% YoY in 4Q and 15% YoY for FY20. However, Blackberry continues to face a tough set-up where Licensing is expected to soften, down 20% or more YoY in FY21, leaving the struggling core business needed to drive growth.

    Valuation helps provide floor; some remote worker upside

    Positively, the valuation provides a floor with the stock trading at 1.8x our CY21E EV/S after-hours (peer avg at ~4x). With assets like Cylance and Athoc competing in growth markets, we continue to view the sum-of-parts valuation as attractive (see preview). Management expects newer Cylance innovations such as single-agent EDR, continuous authentication, and managed defense to help drive growth for the segment in FY21. Athoc and remote connectivity solutions also align well with Telecommuting trends.
    FeitaInc likes this.
    04-01-20 07:51 AM
  9. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    Cylance sales shall be taken on the non-garp basis, which is essentially flat at 53mm. if ESS had high teen growth q2q like John Chen claim, which would be around 96.6-100mm. it suggest BTS has a huge drop, from 61mm to 27-30mm, more then 50% drop. I initially model BTS around 63mm. The difference is about 33-36mm.

    Personally, I think BTS will be back sooner or later. The key would be the growth of ESS and cylance. Chen does not provide any guidance on these two segment, which I am very disappointed.
    I'm not sure about QNX, things that Tesla are doing, and that other Automotive OEMs are looking at.... would kill the whole ideas of dozens of licenses per vehicle. I'm sure they'll have to increase their fees as the market transitions to a single "system" - just don't know if that means they'll hold current levels.
    Don't see it leading to growth.

    And clearly IoT isn't in need of a proprietary OS, that the company making the products doesn't control. Heck looking like IoT is going to end up being just a handful of brands, most of who have their own OS.

    Cylance is the key to everything... if that doesn't bring the growth, they are in trouble.
    04-01-20 08:27 AM
  10. La Emperor's Avatar
    I'm not sure about QNX, things that Tesla are doing, and that other Automotive OEMs are looking at.... would kill the whole ideas of dozens of licenses per vehicle. I'm sure they'll have to increase their fees as the market transitions to a single "system" - just don't know if that means they'll hold current levels.
    Don't see it leading to growth.

    And clearly IoT isn't in need of a proprietary OS, that the company making the products doesn't control. Heck looking like IoT is going to end up being just a handful of brands, most of who have their own OS.

    Cylance is the key to everything... if that doesn't bring the growth, they are in trouble.
    You're not buying smartphones Dunt. The cost is almost negligible in a $30K -$100K cars. Also I sure don't mind paying a few dollars extra if its got an edge in safety and security.

    And as far as integrating multiple systems to reduce cost, isn't that what Hypervisor is for?
    Corbu and rarsen like this.
    04-01-20 08:57 AM
  11. Corbu's Avatar
    BB – CIBC: COVID-19 To Slow F21 Revenue

    Our Conclusion Blackberry’s Q4 was slightly better than expected, but the company did not provide a F21 outlook. Business is expected to be materially lower in Q1 and Q2 given the COVID-19 impact. Our view is the shares will decline on this report, and we recommend investors wait for a more attractive entry point. Blackberry is rated Neutral. Our price target is reduced to $5 from $7 reflecting our forecast reduction for F21 and a lower target multiple.

    Key Points For Q4, revenue was $291MM versus our expectation of $302MM (FactSet estimate was $282MM), and EPS were $0.09 (our estimate was $0.05 and FactSet $0.04).

    During the quarter, licensing revenue and ESS recovered, offsetting a slowdown at Blackberry Technology Solutions where vehicle volumes have fallen. Post COVID-19, new products from ESS and Cylance should benefit from better bookings and a stronger competitive position. The reorganized salesforce should also contribute to a revenue recovery as it brings the integrated and new product offering to market.

    For F2021, Q1 (May) and Q2 (August) revenue should be materially lower. Assuming the COVID-19 overhang has lifted, Blackberry is expecting a recovery during the second half of the year. We have revised estimates to reflect these macro trends: our revised F2021 revenue forecast is $954B (FactSet estimates are $1.1B) with an EPS forecast of $0.02 (FactSet $0.13). Our Neutral thesis is based on three points:

    No Growth In F2021: Post COVID-19, we will track how the new sales efforts work in ESS. We are also interested to see if a new sales investment within Cylance and new products can reignite sequential growth in its sales.

    Path To EPS Of $0.40 Will Take More Time: Achieving after-tax EPS of $0.40 likely requires revenue of ~$1.2B. Positive operating leverage would be at least a year away given the COVID-19 slowdown and planned investments.

    Valuation Below Peers Due To Lower Growth: We do not expect the gap to close. Our price target of $5 assumes an EV/Sales of 2x (prior 2.5x) for ESS and 5x (prior 6x) for Cylance.
    04-01-20 09:19 AM
  12. Corbu's Avatar
    BB – Scotiabank: Anticipating Pressure from Crisis in 1H/20

    OUR TAKE: Negative. We view Blackberry's Q4 results as reflecting a combination of operational and COVID-19 pressure which negatively impacted the quarter with revenues below expectation in the IOT segment (both ESS and BTS missing results). The firm's licensing efforts off-set organic declines in its software businesses related to the impact of a combination of internal changes, market pressures and the early impact of the current pandemic. The business continues to reposition and realign its operations having now chosen to fully integrate Cylance into its core ESS business.

    We continue to see Blackberry as holding potential in terms of various areas of the business (e.g., security software, QNX) along with having the balance sheet to weather the current storm. However, we would need to see a material improvement in the firm's performance within its ESS and Cylance businesses to become more constructive on the shares.

    KEY POINTS Improving the product portfolio. Blackberry continues to make progress in working to develop a unified offering that combines enhanced security capabilities with mobile device management. The firm continues to make progress towards developing its Spark platform with the launch of its Unified Endpoint Security product which leverages six of Blackberry's existing security products from Cylance and its legacy software portfolio. We continue to see an opportunity for Blackberry to have a share of the security software market but await further evidence of its sales and management reorganization.

    COVID-19 impacts. Management highlighted areas of the business that are expected to be impacted by the COVID-19 crisis namely: BTS (QNX revenues tied to automakers) and IP Licensing. In Q4, the company experienced a sharp fall-off in demand from automakers which negatively impacted BTS revenues as automakers slowed spending and production (the firm did continue to secure new design wins in the quarter).

    Balance sheet positioned to manage current crisis. The firm indicated on the conference call that it is prepared to redeem its convertible debenture ($606M principal) in full when it comes due in November 2020. The company would have ~$385M in cash and equivalents after paying out the debenture using the firm's Q4 ending balances. Management remained comfortable that it had sufficient working capital to meet its requirements.
    04-01-20 09:19 AM
  13. Corbu's Avatar
    MKM Partners

    BlackBerry (BB, Neutral, $4.50)

    We Thought The Results And Outlook Were Pretty Good, But Communicated Poorly

    COVID-19 appears to be helping BlackBerry's Enterprise and Asset Tracking businesses ... Our main takeaway from the 4QFY20 report is BlackBerry is fairly well positioned for COVID-19. Bookings in the core Enterprise Software and Services (ESS) unit increased by a high teens percentage sequentially in the February quarter. BB enables Security and Mobility for Enterprise and Government customers, which is in higher demand in a WFH world. In response to the COVID-19 crisis, the company began to offer free unlimited licenses of its Enterprise Software products for 60 days to new customers. We are positive on this strategy, especially since BB saw its sales pipeline increase by $30mn during the first week of the promotion. COVID-19 also seems to be having no negative impact, and may even be a net positive, on BlackBerry's Radar business, which helps keep track of tractor/trailer assets for Enterprise customers.

    • ... But COVID-19 is hurting demand for its Auto infotainment Software. The company's 4QFY20 IoT revenues of $127mn missed our estimate by $22mn, largely due to a freeze in the market for new Automobile production. We are reducing our 1QFY21 revenue forecast for BB by $29mn to $247mn, as a result of the significantly lower Auto production. We believe the entire Auto-related business was at a roughly $40mn per quarter run rate before the COVID-19 crisis began, and we are lowering our near-term estimates for the business by roughly 75%. On the other hand, COVID-19 does not appear to be affecting BlackBerry's ongoing design wins for Advanced Driver Assist (autonomous cars) or Digital Instrument Cluster applications, where the meaningful revenue opportunities are still a year or more away.

    • 4QFY20 Automotive miss made up by strong IP Licensing revenues. Total 4QFY20 revenues came in at $292mn, which were only $2mn shy of our estimate despite the $22mn miss in IoT driven by Auto. This is because BlackBerry had another very strong quarter for IP Licensing revenues, as it has for all of FY20, in which results came in well ahead of management guidance. Non-GAAP Opex was only $172mn, compared to our $202mn forecast, due to good expense control generally, as well as lower spending, post the start of the global health crisis. Operating margin came in at 17.5%, versus our 9.8% estimate, and EPS came in at $0.09, compared to our $0.04 forecast.

    • New estimates. We are lowering our FY21 revenue forecast by 10% to account for lower demand for Auto units. BlackBerry management believes 2HFY21 will be better than 1HFY21 as the health crisis likely recedes. We are also reducing our FY21 Opex projections by roughly 10% since company spending is likely to be lower due to COVID-19. Our new FY21 EPS forecast is $0.12, down from $0.15. We are introducing FY21 revenues / EPS estimates at $1.14bn / $0.18. Our new FV estimate for BB is $4.50, down from $7.00, based on 2.0x EV-to-FY21 sales.

    • Maintaining Neutral rating. We think BB is fairly well positioned for COVID-19, and we think the valuation has become reasonable as the market has sold off on macro concerns. However, the stock was down in after-hours trading following the conference call because management did not do a good job explaining that it is well positioned for the WFH world, in our opinion. We think the company sounded too concerned about losing some near-term Auto revenues, and not excited enough about its expanding Enterprise Security and Mobility and Asset Tracking opportunities. Overall, we are becoming more interested in BB as an investment than before, but we still have enough reservations about the company to remain at a Neutral rating.
    04-01-20 09:23 AM
  14. shanhetao's Avatar
    Thanks Corbu for these reports. I agree with the saying the management did a poor job on the conference call. There are good and bad part of the business. But the way they present only let people see the bad part.
    _dimi_, Corbu and dusdal like this.
    04-01-20 11:22 AM
  15. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    Thanks Corbu for these reports. I agree with the saying the management did a poor job on the conference call. There are good and bad part of the business. But the way they present only let people see the bad part.
    Seems to be what most all do agree on.... maybe Chen wasn't feeling well?
    04-01-20 11:34 AM
  16. _dimi_'s Avatar
    Seems to be what most all do agree on.... maybe Chen wasn't feeling well?
    He has always been like this. And I too have defended him. But to me it's starting to seem that he's just unable to inspire the workforce. I wouldn't be happy working for this CEO either, who's only good at breaking-even and politics. And when asked a question, he either responds using "probably not the right words", he mumbles, makes an odd joke or forgets what the question was. So many missed opportunities to promote this company in a way that emphasizes what a great turnaround it has been. I can imagine that it's demotivating for a YOUNG, ambitious salesforce who prefer working for the real winners in this field (Crowdstrike, Everbridge,...) whose employee shares/warrants actually represent the effort put in. I'm sure that there are more people here who are tired of the politician in JC, and just want him or somebody else to GET THINGS DONE? Jeez, even MOBL will become a better candidate in this Covid-19 situation.
    04-01-20 12:09 PM
  17. EchoTango's Avatar
    Thanks Corbu for these reports. I agree with the saying the management did a poor job on the conference call. There are good and bad part of the business. But the way they present only let people see the bad part.
    I might also speculate the presentation was delivered across many locations which eliminated any normal interaction amongst the participants. Of course this would reduce the overall quality of the delivery. Those who have done these types of events will know that notes are passed, whispering in ears or in some cases vigorous hand signaling. All of these add to the precision of the information and completely impossible if you're not all in the room.

    I've never thought Chen was a superb communicator, but I do respect his business acumen and decision making skills.
    04-01-20 12:45 PM
  18. Corbu's Avatar
    OT:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52115434
    Coronavirus: Zoom under increased scrutiny as popularity soars

    04-01-20 01:44 PM
  19. Paulelmar18's Avatar
    I heard the rumor that BlackBerry wants to make a statement later to announce personnel consequences.

    Insiders claim to have found out about Chen's replacement.
    elfabio80 likes this.
    04-01-20 02:57 PM
  20. app_Developer's Avatar
    I heard the rumor that BlackBerry wants to make a statement later to announce personnel consequences.

    Insiders claim to have found out about Chen's replacement.
    Interesting. He's made some good moves, but also some things have just taken too long to execute. And communications is a requirement for the leader of a company that is trying to make a big comeback IMO.

    But the biggest miss of all may be Cylance. That may turn out to be a bad purchase at that price. The jury is still out on that, but the fact that the jury is out still is itself a problem.
    04-01-20 03:01 PM
  21. shanhetao's Avatar
    I heard the rumor that BlackBerry wants to make a statement later to announce personnel consequences.

    Insiders claim to have found out about Chen's replacement.
    I would say it would positive. I have defended Chen for a long time. But my patience worn out in the last year. He is a very good businessman, but just not the kind of leader making people excited.
    kellyweng88 likes this.
    04-01-20 03:07 PM
  22. Paulelmar18's Avatar
    Interesting. He's made some good moves, but also some things have just taken too long to execute. And communications is a requirement for the leader of a company that is trying to make a big comeback IMO.

    But the biggest miss of all may be Cylance. That may turn out to be a bad purchase at that price. The jury is still out on that, but the fact that the jury is out still is itself a problem.
    Today I wrote an article about the annual results in our German BlackBerry Forum. Although Cylance exceeded Chen's sales forecast, it was unable to adequately compensate for the decline in sales from the IoT sector to generate a profit.
    04-01-20 03:09 PM
  23. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    I heard the rumor that BlackBerry wants to make a statement later to announce personnel consequences.

    Insiders claim to have found out about Chen's replacement.

    I remember he had some nice performance awards (that he didn't reach), but does he have a nice exit package?


    Also wonder how much stock he owns, and if this is a requirement if he is part of a group taking them private.
    04-01-20 03:26 PM
  24. Seadog83's Avatar
    I heard the rumor that BlackBerry wants to make a statement later to announce personnel consequences.

    Insiders claim to have found out about Chen's replacement.
    I'm not sure I can get behind that. Chen has been a disappointment in his second go round, but the middle of the storm isn't the time to change the captain, and as Chen found out the hard way, the previous guys momentum can take years to undo, before you even have a chance to leave your mark. Someone new IMO would mean at least another 5 years before any hope of a payday.

    Secondly, all those analyst reports are garbage. Basically nothing of substance, and "we're reducing our target because we're reducing our P/S ratio. Because we're reducing to even further below that of BBs peers despite being already well below. Because"

    Look at the stock on a yearly basis as opposed to a quarterly one. Compared to what it set out to do last year this time, and where it is now, I would say it ball park hit it's goals, with minor allowances for the virus which impacted at the end. Yet the price has shed 2/3rds. It doesn't make sense. Chen isn't doing a bad job in my opinion, but that's my conclusion after more research than probably 95% of the public/other shareholders. He's an atrocious communicator, and lacks the fire to get people excited. In a word, he's boring.

    While I could potentially get behind a change in leadership if the strategy remained similar enough that they could hit the ground running building on what's been accomplished, the argument could also be made that unless there's radical change, there's really nothing to be gained be swapping out the top spot. Especially if we have to pay out Chen the $300m or whatever he was supposed to get for getting the stock above $30. We tossed a lot of money away on Heins's golden parachute, lets not do it again.

    Regardless, as a lowly individual investor, regardless of what the powers that be decide, we're in the river being carried by the current at this point. It's up to the fates whether we smash on the rocks or see blue skies. (Save for selling out at 20 yr lows)
    tdovey, dusdal, JLagoon and 1 others like this.
    04-01-20 04:22 PM
  25. _dimi_'s Avatar
    I'm not sure I can get behind that. Chen has been a disappointment in his second go round, but the middle of the storm isn't the time to change the captain, and as Chen found out the hard way, the previous guys momentum can take years to undo, before you even have a chance to leave your mark. Someone new IMO would mean at least another 5 years before any hope of a payday.

    Secondly, all those analyst reports are garbage. Basically nothing of substance, and "we're reducing our target because we're reducing our P/S ratio. Because we're reducing to even further below that of BBs peers despite being already well below. Because"

    Look at the stock on a yearly basis as opposed to a quarterly one. Compared to what it set out to do last year this time, and where it is now, I would say it ball park hit it's goals, with minor allowances for the virus which impacted at the end. Yet the price has shed 2/3rds. It doesn't make sense. Chen isn't doing a bad job in my opinion, but that's my conclusion after more research than probably 95% of the public/other shareholders. He's an atrocious communicator, and lacks the fire to get people excited. In a word, he's boring.

    While I could potentially get behind a change in leadership if the strategy remained similar enough that they could hit the ground running building on what's been accomplished, the argument could also be made that unless there's radical change, there's really nothing to be gained be swapping out the top spot. Especially if we have to pay out Chen the $300m or whatever he was supposed to get for getting the stock above $30. We tossed a lot of money away on Heins's golden parachute, lets not do it again.

    Regardless, as a lowly individual investor, regardless of what the powers that be decide, we're in the river being carried by the current at this point. It's up to the fates whether we smash on the rocks or see blue skies. (Save for selling out at 20 yr lows)
    If previous rumours were true, then we wouldn't be hanging out in these forums tonight :-) I agree with a lot of the things you say... But there are better suited CEO's out there, imho. From looking at its stock price (well below book value), it 'seems' (that's an understatement) he has lost tremendous amounts of credibility. They need new energy, a Spark some might say. There's an investor report (posted by Corbu) that mentions JC's poor communication skills. I mean, that has to ring a bell? That's unseen, if you ask me? JC has to get it right just 1 day each quarter. And again, he does a really poor job of defending the stock price and restoring faith. Perhaps the market demands more agressive CEO's nowadays? JC is neither agressive, nor trustworthy. When is the last time that he has hit or overdelivered on sales numbers? Keep in mind, licensing is not his achievement. Those are lawyers and patent licensors extracting value from existing patents. If he had done something worthwhile with BBM or hardware, I would have given him credit for it. And BBM should still be around, in a big way. He has had since 2013, but again, the numbers never came....
    elfabio80 likes this.
    04-01-20 05:06 PM
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