View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

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  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    702 62.18%
  • No

    427 37.82%
  1. app_Developer's Avatar
    I guess we’ll see what happens with Cylance. Did they cash out before things got ugly for them? If so lucky for them, but may be disastrous for BB.

    It’s too early IMO to know either way. Let’s see how the next 2 quarters look. The market isn’t going to give BB the benefit of the doubt. It’s not that the stock is “hated”, it’s that the company has a long history of promising one thing and delivering less. When they bought Good the story was they would dominate UEM and drive growth there for a long time. That didn’t last very long. So now they are on the latest thing which is Cylance. But they have to prove they can really make that work over a few quarters and truly stay competitive in that space.
    Last edited by app_Developer; 10-05-19 at 01:23 PM.
    La Emperor, rarsen and techvisor like this.
    10-05-19 01:13 PM
  2. Corbu's Avatar
    For the record, this report was prepared by Kian Ghazi, of Hawkshaw (https://www.whartonny.com/article.html?aid=2877) for SumZero (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SumZero).

    I am told that he use to run a HF and that he might well have sold this report to other HFs before it became public.

    He has not always been right, obviously: https://nexchange.com/article/13462

    I am not passing judgment on the report itself, simply sharing it so we can pool our collective minds,

    We do need and deserve to know what is going on. Information is key.

    PS: I am told that this report most probably came out either on the week of the latest earnings. Either on the same day or close to.

    PS: Some say that this report might very well explain the significant downturn, to 16 year lows. In the hands of HFs who still short this thing to the ground, might well be. All speculation, obviously.
    Last edited by Corbu; 10-05-19 at 01:34 PM. Reason: Added PS x 2
    10-05-19 01:17 PM
  3. sangiopangio's Avatar
    I have posted them but it seems that they need to be approved by the mods... They will eventually show up... I hope!

    There are three parts, incidentally: text in two parts + figures

    Cheers,
    Further to not mentioning the sources, Sumzero is funded by Winklevoss Capital Management, which is managed by the Winklevoss twins Cameron and Tyler, who were at Harvard with Zuckerberg.

    https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/04...-its-close-up/

    "...This is not the brothers’ first gamble on an unproved technology. As students at Harvard, the twins founded a social networking site, ConnectU, and enlisted their schoolmate, Mark Zuckerberg..."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SumZero

    Not that I don't find their report to be detailed, but it's fully based on "their assumptions" and on "a former senior exec describes" and "we spoke with a senior exec"...

    It's easy to beat a beaten dog. Competition is always where money is and this is good. BB has to come up with improved numbers and one can (finally) get rid of these unprofessional basher posts
    La Emperor, rarsen, Corbu and 1 others like this.
    10-05-19 01:43 PM
  4. Seadog83's Avatar
    I was thinking about this more, and can anyone tell my why in God's name you'd reduce the top end of your guidance, but not the lower? It seems to me like the absolute worst of both worlds.

    I mean, even internally if he though 23-25% was more realistic, he could have said nothing, hit 23-25%, and no one could say anything. And in this case you avoided the horrible press of "Chen reduces guidance" this Q.

    On the other hand, if it comes in at even 22%, the press will be awash with stories about how he missed guidance and will be similarly punished again. Missing 23-27% by a % and missing 23-25% is the same thing.

    What was to be gained? You pay a price today for the bad press of reducing guidance, yet didn't buy yourself any more wiggle room in case you come up short.
    b121, Corbu, rarsen and 4 others like this.
    10-05-19 03:51 PM
  5. rampagingpanda's Avatar
    For the record, this report was prepared by Kian Ghazi, of Hawkshaw (https://www.whartonny.com/article.html?aid=2877) for SumZero (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SumZero).

    I am told that he use to run a HF and that he might well have sold this report to other HFs before it became public.

    He has not always been right, obviously: https://nexchange.com/article/13462

    I am not passing judgment on the report itself, simply sharing it so we can pool our collective minds,

    We do need and deserve to know what is going on. Information is key.

    PS: I am told that this report most probably came out either on the week of the latest earnings. Either on the same day or close to.

    PS: Some say that this report might very well explain the significant downturn, to 16 year lows. In the hands of HFs who still short this thing to the ground, might well be. All speculation, obviously.
    Thank you for the share, Corbu. It's important for us to see perspectives from all sides.
    10-06-19 12:41 AM
  6. Seadog83's Avatar
    For the record, this report was prepared by Kian Ghazi, of Hawkshaw (https://www.whartonny.com/article.html?aid=2877) for SumZero (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SumZero).

    I am told that he use to run a HF and that he might well have sold this report to other HFs before it became public.

    He has not always been right, obviously: https://nexchange.com/article/13462

    I am not passing judgment on the report itself, simply sharing it so we can pool our collective minds,

    We do need and deserve to know what is going on. Information is key.

    PS: I am told that this report most probably came out either on the week of the latest earnings. Either on the same day or close to.

    PS: Some say that this report might very well explain the significant downturn, to 16 year lows. In the hands of HFs who still short this thing to the ground, might well be. All speculation, obviously.
    Yes, while very thorough, it seems heavy on quotes from "some guy at some competitor".

    It reminds me of that quote " It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it".

    They did reference the 5.24 price in one of the pics, so it does imply it was released after earnings. Then in the text they reference a potential 40% price drop which would take us to the $3 range - Basically after cash valuing Cylance at $1.2b and everything else at 0. That is a stretch IMO but as per my previous post, 14->4s would have been a stretch if you told me in Jan '18.

    One positive note however is that as per market watch, such a thorough article was probably not put together and researched day of, so when they were writing about 40% downside, the stock was likely at $7.x, and then they filled in the price blanks after the release.
    Redzinaldas, Corbu, rarsen and 2 others like this.
    10-06-19 09:50 AM
  7. EchoTango's Avatar
    Thanks to Corbu for providing this alternative view to Blackberry's future.

    Since I'm a relatively "largish" individual shareholder, clearly I find this report overly negative and assumes some fairly large oversights on Blackberry's parts. The report seems to indicate Blackberry's management is asleep in the wheelhouse for EVERY division of their business. This seems highly unlikely. Being a VP of a division makes you very attuned by necessity and to report management not knowing or taking action on any for the identified competitive threats seems almost adolescent. Further, any competitor will report product confusion and low management performance by a rival since "he" will assert their company has none of these same challenges. Let's not forget Blackberry is competing in a marketplace which has seen many new "youthful players" who routinely make many aggressive claims and deliver only a subset of their promises all the while burning investor cash in the hopes of being taken out by one of the tech whales. How knows, maybe Cylance was one of these "fragrant flowers".

    I may be guilty of hopeful blindness but I just can't believe Blackberry has such a hopeless future with all the senior management (according to this report) getting up every day working so hard to fail. It just doesn't make any sense.

    However, the recent stock fall does indicate something is amiss with Blackberry and I'm thinking it's more of a temporary bump in the turnaround then a major error in their collective understanding all of Blackberry's product markets.
    Corbu, rarsen, smithm565 and 1 others like this.
    10-06-19 02:22 PM
  8. W Hoa's Avatar
    If I may offer a humorous/cynical take:

    BlackBerry is beset by many competitors who seem to fare better/much better than BB. I would suggest that it is name related. BlackBerry is too tame of a name in today's blood thirsty environment where it is up against the likes of Carbon Black, Cloudstrike, Mobileiron, Fireye etc.

    I suggest that BlackBerry combine its original name with that of its major acquisition and call itself Black Lance! I'm sure the effect on the share price will be felt within days. Cheers.
    10-06-19 03:03 PM
  9. app_Developer's Avatar
    I may be guilty of hopeful blindness but I just can't believe Blackberry has such a hopeless future with all the senior management (according to this report) getting up every day working so hard to fail. It just doesn't make any sense.
    People who work hard still make mistakes; and BB has a long history now of mistakes and poor execution. So it’s possible UEM isn’t working out as planned. And it’s possible they bought the wrong AI company at the wrong time and/or the wrong price.

    We’ll see. I don’t think the market is irrational to be saying “ok, show us you it right this time”. (Especially after a flat ARR result against competitors with healthy growth) BB just has to show them over the next couple of quarters. Even one quarter of strong ARR growth would be enough to see $8-10 IMO.
    Yasch22, Corbu, rarsen and 1 others like this.
    10-06-19 07:25 PM
  10. EchoTango's Avatar
    People who work hard still make mistakes; and BB has a long history now of mistakes and poor execution. So it’s possible UEM isn’t working out as planned. And it’s possible they bought the wrong AI company at the wrong time and/or the wrong price.

    We’ll see. I don’t think the market is irrational to be saying “ok, show us you it right this time”. (Especially after a flat ARR result against competitors with healthy growth) BB just has to show them over the next couple of quarters. Even one quarter of strong ARR growth would be enough to see $8-10 IMO.
    All true, but after the level of introspection and re-strategizing this company has ungone, I find it difficult to believe they got it this wrong. This report paints a dismal picture across all their lines-of-business, again hard to believe. Hell, they even shut down their core business because it was not making money and never would.

    I fully agree they have made some huge blunders in the past, but that was before Chen's tenure and his steady and firm hand on the helm.
    Yasch22, Corbu, rarsen and 2 others like this.
    10-06-19 09:02 PM
  11. Bacon Munchers's Avatar
    Looking at PacerMonitor, it seems like Snap is preparing counterclaims....
    When backed up against a wall, sue back!

    I doubt it will go anywhere.
    Snap better be carefull though, because if the claim doesn't hold weight, BlackBerry can counter sue for loss.

    Regarding the Zero Sum shill hit piece, take that with a boulder of salt.
    How about we pin that somehow and see in a year how close they came? Ibelieve the part of 'some Engineer' stating a complaint against Stuart, but that's almost the extent of it for me.

    Reminds me of the famous quote "It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled."
    Last edited by Bacon Munchers; 10-07-19 at 12:36 AM.
    Corbu and rarsen like this.
    10-06-19 09:43 PM
  12. JLagoon's Avatar
    Hi all,

    Here's a quick update on the chart. I use the 1 hour chart for a better short term outlook. On Friday, the positive convergence of price, RSI, and MACD resulted in moving out of the immediate downtrend parallel channel--we have a bigger one to escape on the daily chart. We can establish two support lines around $4.96, and $5.17. With Friday movement, BB is not overbought at all. RSI on the daily chart is around 20, and on the 1 hour chart, it is around 50. It is at a "neutral zone" taking a breather from a downtrend in the short term parallel channel.

    The goal this week is to be stable with a steady mix of sideways and uptrend slowly, and escape the possible bigger downtrend parallel channel, as you can see on the daily chart. BB needs to escape this bigger parallel channel this week by clearing ~$5.36. The anchor for this channel is $6.36, and this is the price to clear in the longer term.

    Daily:
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares!]-screen-shot-2019-10-07-2.15.27-am.png

    1 hour:
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares!]-screen-shot-2019-10-07-1.56.14-am.png
    Corbu, rarsen, W Hoa and 4 others like this.
    10-07-19 01:30 AM
  13. _dimi_'s Avatar
    When backed up against a wall, sue back!

    I doubt it will go anywhere.
    Snap better be carefull though, because if the claim doesn't hold weight, BlackBerry can counter sue for loss.

    Regarding the Zero Sum shill hit piece, take that with a boulder of salt.
    How about we pin that somehow and see in a year how close they came? Ibelieve the part of 'some Engineer' stating a complaint against Stuart, but that's almost the extent of it for me.

    Reminds me of the famous quote "It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled."
    I'm reading that at least 4 of BlackBerry's patents have been invalidated under Alice last week (2 in Twitter case ; 2 in Facebook/Snap case).

    So Snap is almost out of trouble, since they left a third patent intact (for now) in the cases against Facebook and Snap. I believe there is an Inter Partes Review ongoing for this patent.

    The court declined to invalidate 2 other patents in the Twitter case, one due to a factual dispute under Aatrix and the other due to its similarity to certain other patents previously upheld by the Federal Circuit.

    I wonder if BlackBerry should have held a test-case. Apparently Google was able to invalidate a few of BlackBerry's patents last year, which brings to question how many of their 40,000 patents are too abstract and therefore unpatentable.

    If Snap came after BlackBerry with a lawsuit, and BlackBerry won, wouldn't we expect them to pay damages?
    Corbu, rarsen, La Emperor and 3 others like this.
    10-07-19 06:09 AM
  14. smithm565's Avatar
    Good find Corbu.

    The information I provide below, will likely be labeled as "conspiracy theory" by some, because it is hard to fathom the complicated connections between the parties involved, and how their interconnected web is able to operate in such an efficient, secretive, and dominant way. I believe there is much documentation and information publicly available that proves otherwise. I have too much information to document here, but I believe much of it points to a group’s common goal to “crack” and destroy Blackberry. Here is what I can share right now, since you mentioned the report by Kian Ghazi, which appears to be completely “unbiased”.

    I believe Kian’s “contact” in the article is either David Einhorn or Whitney Tilson, both of whom Kian has a long-standing relationship with, and both of whom are well documented short sellers.

    Common Connections:
    - SumZero
    - Seeking Alpha
    - Sohn Investment Conference
    - Value Investors Club
    - Columbia Business School
    - Berkeley Business School
    Kian Ghazi:
    - Runs Hawkshaw LLC (research firm)
    - Hawkshaw Capital Management (former hedge fund closed in 2012)
    - Columbia Business School Professor
    - Friend of David Einhorn (Greenlight Capital)
    - Past investor in Greenlight Capital
    - Long time Dell & Symantec bull (and investor)
    David Einhorn:
    - Runs Greenlight Capital
    - Ex-wife (married 24 years) is Cheryl Strauss Einhorn
    - Close friend of Whitney Tilson
    - Connections to SS group (Loeb, Chanos, Rocker, Cohodes, Block, Left, Cohen)
    Cheryl Strauss Einhorn
    - Professor at Columbia Business School
    - Ex-wife David Einhorn
    Jim Chanos
    - Runs Kynikos Associates LP
    - SS Group Connections
    - Being Sued by Fairfax Financial with other SS
    - Speaking circuit on fraud & short targets
    - Major Connections to Berkeley Business School
    - Major Connections to several short biased Financial Media
    Whitney Tilson
    - Runs T2 Partners LLC
    - Connections to SS Group
    - Many connections to Einhorn & Ghazi
    Daniel Loeb:
    - Runs Third Point LLC
    - Being Sued by Fairfax Financial with other SS
    Carson Block:
    - Runs Muddy Waters Research
    Andrew Left
    - Runs Cintron Research (formerly StockLemon.com)
    Steven Cohen
    - Runs Point72 Asset Management
    - Formerly ran SAC Capital
    - Being Sued by Fairfax Financial with other SS
    David Rocker
    - Retired HF manager – ran Rocker Partners
    - Being Sued by Fairfax Financial with other SS
    Marc Cohodes
    - Former HF manager – Rocker Partners/Copper River
    Adam Sender
    - Runs Sender Co and Partners
    - Former HF manager - Exis Capital Management, Inc; Kadem Capital Management
    - Former trader at SAC Capital
    - Being Sued by Fairfax Financial with other SS

    You can search the web and verify much of this information, but a word of caution that it will take you down an endless Rabbit Hole. Here are some helpful links to get you started:

    Deepcapture documented ties between Kian, Einhorn, Tilson, and Chanos:
    https://www.deepcapture.com/2011/04/...aryngitis-too/

    Documented tie between Kian and Tilson
    https://www.valuewalk.com/2017/04/ti...days-purchase/

    Link to Fairfax wall street lawsuit and various connections
    https://scholar.google.com/scholar_c...06&as_ylo=2007

    Jim Chanos/Herb Greenberg “#FraudFest”
    https://www.law.berkeley.edu/researc...market-videos/

    Documented tie between sumzero and Tilson/Sohn Investment Conference
    https://sumzero.com/sumzero_partners

    Value Investors Club (private site, exclusive club)
    https://www.businessinsider.com/valu...rs-club-2012-4
    10-07-19 07:01 AM
  15. Corbu's Avatar
    Impressive work, smithm565!

    Much appreciated.
    10-07-19 07:09 AM
  16. _dimi_'s Avatar
    Great find, smithm565! I've just checked my inbox, for the first time in years. Because I remembered something that Morgan sent me in 2013. I think it relates to these type of short sellers.

    '' In the end, they need to leave the media because it isn't about being a promising company, its about crushing a company in a country without a backbone. Canada has no laws in place to stop Hedge Funds from crushing Canadian companies. Nothing there, Biovail, FairFax, there are a number of companies that HF's have targeted successfully. If this one had a US address, it would be hailed a long shot but a good one and a P/E of 60:1! I can take $ 9.00 and double it, not many can do that and I made a pile of money this year so for us, it doesn't matter. Not everyone can say that and I feel their pain. So my job now is to look beyond this one and get everyone back on track here.''
    Corbu, rarsen, La Emperor and 1 others like this.
    10-07-19 07:29 AM
  17. _dimi_'s Avatar
    I think we'd also need to take a good look at BlackBerry's direct competitors, either inside or outside of court. Facebook for example could very well be involved with these types of short sellers. Who remembers the various IP infringement lawsuits that were initiated against BlackBerry just after they announced a lawsuit against Facebook? No doubt that those were orchestrated.

    Also, you could say that BlackBerry has been making too many enemies lately. Apparently BlackBerry sold their USB power patent portfolio to a company called Fundamental Innovation Systems. And this company seems to have targetted LG, ZTE, Huawei, ... and even Apple has preemtively filed a lawsuit against them to head off a patent infringement suit they feel is in the making. How strange is that?!

    https://www.patentlyapple.com/patent...-patents-.html

    The industry refers to this strategy as 'privateering':

    A patent privateer or intellectual property privateer is a party, typically a patent assertion entity, authorized by another party, often a technology corporation, to use intellectual property to attack other operating companies.[1]:5 Privateering provides a way for companies to assert intellectual property against their competitors with a significantly reduced risk of retaliation and as a means for altering their competitive landscape.
    Corbu, rarsen, La Emperor and 1 others like this.
    10-07-19 07:45 AM
  18. world traveler and former ceo's Avatar
    Great find, smithm565! I've just checked my inbox, for the first time in years. Because I remembered something that Morgan sent me in 2013. I think it relates to these type of short sellers.

    '' In the end, they need to leave the media because it isn't about being a promising company, its about crushing a company in a country without a backbone. Canada has no laws in place to stop Hedge Funds from crushing Canadian companies. Nothing there, Biovail, FairFax, there are a number of companies that HF's have targeted successfully. If this one had a US address, it would be hailed a long shot but a good one and a P/E of 60:1! I can take $ 9.00 and double it, not many can do that and I made a pile of money this year so for us, it doesn't matter. Not everyone can say that and I feel their pain. So my job now is to look beyond this one and get everyone back on track here.''
    Hedge funds have indeed had their way with this stock for a long time... but in the end, the company needed to show growth in top and bottom lines and it continually disappoints.... a turn around that never happens... always next quarter, next year, etc... they have failed consistently.
    10-07-19 07:46 AM
  19. EchoTango's Avatar
    Hedge funds have indeed had their way with this stock for a long time... but in the end, the company needed to show growth in top and bottom lines and it continually disappoints.... a turn around that never happens... always next quarter, next year, etc... they have failed consistently.
    Right on world traveler and former ceo I couldn't agree more !

    Like the jungle, those who are weak are prey for the strong. Blackberry will only succeed when they start producing material earnings which will cause these short selling bottom feeders to move on to someone else. Earnings are produced by market focus and good decisioning by the senior management.

    One significant factor with option contracts is that they all have a specific expiration date which means the negative effects will always have a specific life span.
    Dunt Dunt Dunt and La Emperor like this.
    10-07-19 08:46 AM
  20. _dimi_'s Avatar
    LG, Huawei and Samsung all seem to have settled with FITI (Fundamental Innovation Systems International) while ZTE was still active in litigation. Meanwhile they have filed a lawsuit against Apple. More than 40 Apple products are at issue.
    rarsen and EchoTango like this.
    10-07-19 09:31 AM
  21. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    Earnings are produced by market focus and good decisioning by the senior management. n.
    And which market are they focused on right now.... IP, Auto, Trucking, IoT, Enterprise UEM, Mobility Solutions, Legacy Support, Encryption, AI...

    Sadly as before... might be more value in the parts than the whole. Getting that value might only be achieved by going private.

    Cylance might be the magic that brings it all together.... but it's a long shot.
    techvisor likes this.
    10-07-19 10:05 AM
  22. Rice Dawg's Avatar
    First, I will opine that smithm565's hypothesis that either Einhorn or Tilson is behind this SumZero post is likely mistaken. I'm almost 100% certain regarding Tilson because he closed his hedge fund almost exactly two years ago (October 2017) due to poor performance and has since transitioned to newsletter writing for Empire Financial, part of the condition being him unable to go long or short any individual stock. Anyone can get on his mailing list from the Empire Financial website. And anyone who knows Tilson knows he is utterly transparent about his targets, of which currently Tesla is his obsession. I've been on his e-mail blasts for about ten years, and he has never breathed a word about BlackBerry. I would be extremely surprised if he had a hidden agenda against BB here because he has no incentive, and his short targets have historically trended towards rotten management behavior like what went on at Overstock or payday lenders or Lumber Liquidators when they were covering up a formaldehyde issue.

    Regarding Einhorn, he too is relatively transparent about his shorts. His quarterly letters can be found with relative ease online at sites like ValueWalk and Reddit and in them he talks about his shorts freely, for example his "bubble basket" which targeted a basket of overvalued tech stocks. I have a collection of it dating back to 2008 and again, never a word about BlackBerry. BB would not have fallen into his bubble basket because it never traded significantly above 5x EV/S for any extended period of time, and his shorts have generally targeted those with valuations many times that (wouldn't be surprised if CrowdStrike is on it though).

    Again, I could be wrong since I obviously don't have any insight into their short book, but I'll just say I've followed both Tilson and Einhorn for many years and based on what I know of their tendencies and mindsets and strategies, BlackBerry would not fit. Loeb at Third Point on the other hand is a bit sneakier (look up his Mr. Pink posts) and has a history of butting heads with Prem Watsa, but Third Point now manages upwards of $17 billion. Common sense dictates he has bigger fish to fry than a little $3B market cap company which wouldn't really move the needle for his fund even if he managed to beat it down by 30%.

    With all this said, if one is truly interested in analyzing BlackBerry and the prospects of its common shares, I would say your time is better spent understanding products, its markets, its competitors, their strategies, etc. Read their financials, brush up on accounting, read Benjamin Graham. Even learning more about the lawsuits is helpful, although I personally don't think it's something to pin your investment hopes on. Above all, don't fall into an echo chamber convincing yourself someone is out to get you. And even if you are utterly convinced and you end up being right, I would say sell the stock and move on. Life is too short to go on a virtual crusade with StockTwitters based on tenuous links found on websites that will end up losing you money and sleep. I sincerely hope I am conveying this with utmost constructive respect.

    ***

    OK, now on to the SumZero post from Corbu. I will leave Hawkshaw's reputation and SumZero as a platform's reputation alone, besides to say that SumZero can be thought of as a slightly more refined Seeking Alpha, and as such, the quality of the work is usually more polished and there are less egregious mistakes, but the contributors on there are directionally wrong about as often as anywhere else.

    First, I will note that Hawkshaw's target valuation of 2.5x-3x EV/Sales would equate to a $5.27-6.18 per share price even taking into his assumption of ~$1.0B in FY2020 revenues (vs. current expectations/guidance of over $1.1B). So right off the bat, at today's prices, BB has already baked in his bearish expectations. I do not know how he arrived at $4.21, which would be a market cap of $2.3B and an EV of $1.9B and an EV/S multiple of 1.9x.

    Now, his other points:

    * ESS is losing share: This we know and acknowledge. Management has to do better here and the following quarters will reveal whether they are successful or not. In the long run, he is also right that ESS will forever be a difficult business, one that faces constant competition from "good enough" solutions that are free or next-to-free. UEM and Dynamics itself will never deserve a high multiple because of this. Their best hope is to bundle UEM with Workspaces/SecuSmart which I believe are more differentiated, and eventually, have Cylance enabled protection embedded throughout. There will always be a market for the security sensitive who stand to lose a ton in breaches. It will probably not be billions, but it will exist and it will be fairly stable.

    * Licensing has limited upside: Probably, although this is almost completely opaque. As a result, any prudent investor should already be making this assumption and valuing it at a low single digit multiple. Most of their IP relates to their previous handset/networking patents. This is a segment in harvest mode, although I have been surprised at how quickly they've been able to grow this. Their partnership with Teletry has been a home run.

    * Cylance is losing share: Maybe. We know competition is tough here, and last quarter their revenues were flat QoQ and their ARR was flat YoY -- yellow flags that growth is stalling while their competitors are still chugging along. There are enough whispers around Stuart McClure's negative management style to think this might be credible, so his departure would actually be good news going forward. Few founders that built something from scratch transition to be effective managers of billion dollar corporations. He should enjoy the rest of his life on a yacht. We know Cylance has lost Dell, but there's no way Hawkshaw knows what % it comprises of total revenues, so his numbers there are a SWAG. It's also probable that their solution suite falls short of some competitors'. This is an execution issue, one they implicitly acknowledge with the upcoming releases of CylanceGUARD, CylancePERSONA, and CylanceCOCOON. The good news is it's still early days for next-gen AI/ML EPP/EDR solutions. There's plenty of time and space to strategize and scheme and compete and recover from stalls. It would be a gross over-generalization to draw a straight-line decline here.

    * QNX entering secular decline: This one is the hardest to swallow, as his argument hinge almost completely on quotes from VPs at competitors. Again, his % of revenue guesses on how much is IVI, Cluster, and ADAS are SWAGs. We know this because the first cars using QNX digital clusters have just started shipping last month. Whatever revenue numbers it represented before would only be minimal development seats/professional services. The motherlode is in the royalties that will flow in the next 5-10 years to come. No QNX-powered ADAS vehicles have shipped to my knowledge, so his numbers there are almost certainly wrong. And if dev/proserv revenues are already so voluminous at this stage, it's incredibly bullish to revenues once those design wins translate to actual royalties. It's possible IVI has somewhat peaked, given that infotainment is not safety critical and open source monolithic solutions like Automotive Grade Linux don't pose any risk if it crashes. But each quarter we're feted with announcements in new IVI design wins still, so my sense is it's still growing, albeit perhaps not as fast as before. I reject the argument that AGL will catch up to QNX in actual safety critical functions. Open source software itself is indeed free, but total all-in costs are not. AGL is a loosely organized consortium that is comprised of self-interested members that do not move fast. If you are an OEM and you implement AGL, you still have to have the developers, the ongoing support, etc., which can add up to more than the all-in costs of an encapsulated solution like QNX. Kaivan Karimi has a nice post here that breaks this down. Ultimately, the proof that Linux is not "free" can be seen by corporations like Red Hat, who built a $34B company on top of Linux. QNX is not ordained to be king of automotive embedded systems, but they are in a very strong competitive position, and continued investment in this position will keep them very competitive even against "free" solutions.
    10-07-19 10:35 AM
  23. _dimi_'s Avatar
    Imo, this could be bigger than any of the previous settlements.

    https://litigationtools.maxval-ip.co...?caseid=361567
    10-07-19 10:35 AM
  24. kellyweng88's Avatar
    Hi all,

    Here's a quick update on the chart. I use the 1 hour chart for a better short term outlook. On Friday, the positive convergence of price, RSI, and MACD resulted in moving out of the immediate downtrend parallel channel--we have a bigger one to escape on the daily chart. We can establish two support lines around $4.96, and $5.17. With Friday movement, BB is not overbought at all. RSI on the daily chart is around 20, and on the 1 hour chart, it is around 50. It is at a "neutral zone" taking a breather from a downtrend in the short term parallel channel.

    The goal this week is to be stable with a steady mix of sideways and uptrend slowly, and escape the possible bigger downtrend parallel channel, as you can see on the daily chart. BB needs to escape this bigger parallel channel this week by clearing ~$5.36. The anchor for this channel is $6.36, and this is the price to clear in the longer term.

    Daily:
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    1 hour:
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    Glad to see you back on here with your charts.

    Hoping Morgan is doing well but his silence on the forums is concerning.

    Also a big thank you to everyone else contributing here on this thread. Let's keep hope alive for better days a head.
    10-07-19 11:50 AM
  25. EchoTango's Avatar
    Imo, this could be bigger than any of the previous settlements.

    https://litigationtools.maxval-ip.co...?caseid=361567
    I'm sure this is a stupid question, but what is the connection between FUNDAMENTAL INNOVATION SYSTEMS INTERNATIONAL LLC and RIM/Blackberry ? I know they sold some of their IP to a patent trust company, but I thought that was only the shared Nortel catalog. Alternatively, they either purchased the RIM IP outright or they have a license that allows them to act as the IP owner.

    Either way, the charging system is at the very core of all mobile devices and I can't see why Apple didn't deal with this in the early days of their device design phases.

    Are they that agnostic to paying nominal license fees ?
    _dimi_ and Greened like this.
    10-07-19 11:58 AM
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