[Corbu]

Morgan,

I must thank you for taking the time to write such a detailed response and sharing your thoughts with all of us. There are so many angles to this. Let me share a few of my own views, fwtw.

As you probably know, I was referring to BB from the point of view of a long-term holder who (like others here) has stuck through thick and thin with this company and who has seen the goalposts constantly being moved back, especially in the last 2-3 years. Management sat on that cash for the longest time and we now have a better idea of what that investment holds for us down the next 2-3 years. I would have liked to be really impressed. I can't say I am. And, part of me thinks "We've seen that movie before...".

I do not see the SP moving up in a consistent fashion for the next 12-24 months. I do not see the market "turning around" when it comes to this company. It is now well-run, making a bit of money, it has repositioned itself, it has some growth prospects, etc. But, the message is still not getting across. Or, worse, it is and no one cares.

Heck, I purposely did not post the comments from the folks over at CNBC, last Friday, where they were still ridiculing BB as a dying phone making company, etc. Total and complete ignorance. But, BB must assume some of the blame for not having - still - managed to convey that message to the masses. Granted, it is probably doing some fine work with governments and the various verticals but I can't refrain from thinking that something else should be (have been) done. It's not as if they have not had the time to do so.

It could be that things are the way they ought to be. The market knows better and has decided how much this company is worth. It is I who was wrong, who believed that it could do better, that the growth prospects were more solid, that - for example - Radar would have yielded more solid results by now.

This is not a knock against JC or anyone else. I am sufficiently experienced, realistic and humble to know that I would not have been able to achieve half of what he has done. The fact that BB is still around is, in itself, quite a prowess and I tip my hat to anyone who has contributed to this turnaround.

Still, the facts remain. We are basically at the same level as we were 5 years ago. There does not seem to be any momentum growing. No one seems to have rushed in to buy shares after last Friday and the pattern is still there: solid trading on the day of the results and then back to the slow downward spiral... We seem to be destined to stay around 9.50 for the foreseeable future... No major analyst change and the most positive ones (TD) have no effect.

Are we collectively mistaken in assuming that this company has more solid growth prospects than it actually has? We now know of what is in the plans for Cylance over the next two years or so. We are told that Spark will be made available in September. Will Spark be another Radar? What else? Enterprise SW's guidance if for 13% growth, BTS is 16%, licensing was excellent (and, btw, where would we be without that vertical?) but we are being guided for a slight reduction in FY20. Any catalysts or game changers? I don't see any.

So, yes, I am frustrated. In the end, you are the one who has had the proper strategy for the longest time, Morgan. Well done! That covered call buying strategy is the only reasonable and pragmatic thing to do. I must confess to not having the knowledge and the experience to do this. Maybe it's about time for me to do my homework, actually learn something and get going along those lines.

It won't change my long-term view and my take on the past but it might make things more bearable. If ever you have any practical ideas as to where I should turn to learn about doing this, I would appreciate it. As for buying options, I have failed too many times already. That's out of the question for me anymore.

All the best,

[morganplus8]

My rant for today:

So we have the same analysts complaining that Cylance revs are forecasted by Chen to be below their estimates, what? Remember Good, John did the same thing with that acquisition, he discounted revenues for the current year by over 10% out of the gate. Are we to be disappointed that he used the same metric on Cylance?

The only other complaint is IP revs which BB beat by $19M vs. an estimate that came in lower. In my books that a good thing but ...................... thank goodness people that manage real money buy stock. We never complain when the weather people miss on their forecasts almost every day, but we never hear the end of it when a company like BB beats on IP revs big time and its considered a negative. No punishment for analysts. I still believe these issues are a non-event.

Am I starting to sound like Trump? Fake analysts.

[Chuck Finley69]

Morgan,

I must thank you for taking the time to write such a detailed response and sharing your thoughts with all of us. There are so many angles to this. Let me share a few of my own views, fwtw.

As you probably know, I was referring to BB from the point of view of a long-term holder who (like others here) has stuck through thick and thin with this company and who has seen the goalposts constantly being moved back, especially in the last 2-3 years. Management sat on that cash for the longest time and we now have a better idea of what that investment holds for us down the next 2-3 years. I would have liked to be really impressed. I can't say I am. And, part of me thinks "We've seen that movie before...".

I do not see the SP moving up in a consistent fashion for the next 12-24 months. I do not see the market "turning around" when it comes to this company. It is now well-run, making a bit of money, it has repositioned itself, it has some growth prospects, etc. But, the message is still not getting across. Or, worse, it is and no one cares.

Heck, I purposely did not post the comments from the folks over at CNBC, last Friday, where they were still ridiculing BB as a dying phone making company, etc. Total and complete ignorance. But, BB must assume some of the blame for not having - still - managed to convey that message to the masses. Granted, it is probably doing some fine work with governments and the various verticals but I can't refrain from thinking that something else should be (have been) done. It's not as if they have not had the time to do so.

It could be that things are the way they ought to be. The market knows better and has decided how much this company is worth. It is I who was wrong, who believed that it could do better, that the growth prospects were more solid, that - for example - Radar would have yielded more solid results by now.

This is not a knock against JC or anyone else. I am sufficiently experienced, realistic and humble to know that I would not have been able to achieve half of what he has done. The fact that BB is still around is, in itself, quite a prowess and I tip my hat to anyone who has contributed to this turnaround.

Still, the facts remain. We are basically at the same level as we were 5 years ago. There does not seem to be any momentum growing. No one seems to have rushed in to buy shares after last Friday and the pattern is still there: solid trading on the day of the results and then back to the slow downward spiral... We seem to be destined to stay around 9.50 for the foreseeable future... No major analyst change and the most positive ones (TD) have no effect.

Are we collectively mistaken in assuming that this company has more solid growth prospects than it actually has? We now know of what is in the plans for Cylance over the next two years or so. We are told that Spark will be made available in September. Will Spark be another Radar? What else? Enterprise SW's guidance if for 13% growth, BTS is 16%, licensing was excellent (and, btw, where would we be without that vertical?) but we are being guided for a slight reduction in FY20. Any catalysts or game changers? I don't see any.

So, yes, I am frustrated. In the end, you are the one who has had the proper strategy for the longest time, Morgan. Well done! That covered call buying strategy is the only reasonable and pragmatic thing to do. I must confess to not having the knowledge and the experience to do this. Maybe it's about time for me to do my homework, actually learn something and get going along those lines.

It won't change my long-term view and my take on the past but it might make things more bearable. If ever you have any practical ideas as to where I should turn to learn about doing this, I would appreciate it. As for buying options, I have failed too many times already. That's out of the question for me anymore.

All the best,

Google, covered writing calls and you should get plenty of information. Sell 1 call against 100 shares your first time. Do 30-60 days out expiration. You won’t really make or lose any money on one call but that’s idea. You’ll get the emotional and practical feel and understanding that paper trading can never provide.

[W Hoa]

My take is that BB is fairly valued right where it is, at this very moment. Given that revenue projections for the current fiscal year are the only 'known' I would suggest that in twelve months BB will, baseline, be worth 20%-30% more than it is currently.

Of course their are a multiple of potential events that could occur over the coming year which would alter that projection dramatically. The good news is that the large majority of potential events are positive or at worst neutral.

Cylance over that period should finally contribute some earnings rather than just revenue, Spark is on tap in about 6 months, Radar is, slowly, gaining traction and we could see some wins from the legal department. All, or any, of these might move the share price along a bit more briskly. Cheers

[Bacon Munchers]

Many thanks for your updates, smithm565!



"Pushkal Mishra is an associate in Quinn Emanuel’s Los Angeles office. He joined the firm in 2018 after serving as a judicial law clerk to the Honorable Todd M. Hughes, of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, and to the Honorable George H. Wu, of the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California."

Wow! The plot thickens.
I hope Pushkal and Judge Wu got on well back in the day.

Lol. I imagine the transcript of an upcoming BlackBerry ER to read something like "...and we just got new licensing deals from three major players in the Social Media stratoshpere, but we can't disclose who".

[FeitaInc]

Lol. I imagine the transcript of an upcoming BlackBerry ER to read something like "...and we just got new licensing deals from three major players in the Social Media stratoshpere, but we can't disclose who".

That + some hamsters would make my week! Heck.. it might just be better than that.

if that came to pass, I have a feeling we might see something like this happen. #ninjaMoves

[smithm565]

Very good write up on BlackBerry, current earnings, and their future prospects. Should help ease some recent doubts.

https://investorplace.com/2019/04/bl...-the-long-run/

"Additionally, BlackBerry did not clarify the extent to which the guidance includes potential large settlement deals, with court verdicts against a number of companies that BB has sued for patent infringement, including Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) and Snap (NYSE:SNAP)."

"Based on price-sales and price-book ratios, the current valuation of BlackBerry stock is meaningfully lower than that of a number of other companies that focus on IT security. For example, using Chen’s guidance and excluding cash, the forward price-sales ratio of BB stock is 4.66, versus forward price-sales ratios, excluding cash and based on analysts’ consensus 2019 revenue estimates of 9 for Check Point (NASDAQ:CHKP), 7.5 for CyberArk (NASDAQ:CYBR) and 6.1 for Fortinet (NASDAQ:FTNT). The price-book ratios of CyberArk, CheckPoint and Fortinet are 12.8, 5.2 and 14.3, respectively, versus 2 for BB stock, according to Yahoo Finance."

"As I’ve noted previously, Cylance should make BlackBerry’s offerings more appealing to governments. Meanwhile, QNX should be strengthened when Cylance is integrated into the operating system, and BlackBerry should be able to sell its products to many of Cylance’s small and medium-sized customers. Finally, the fact that Verizon (NYSE:VZ) recently decided to offer Cylance’s products to its customers should boost BlackBerry’s results and is a tremendous vote of confidence in Cylance’s technology."



Posted via CB10

[bbjdog]

My rant for today:

So we have the same analysts complaining that Cylance revs are forecasted by Chen to be below their estimates, what? Remember Good, John did the same thing with that acquisition, he discounted revenues for the current year by over 10% out of the gate. Are we to be disappointed that he used the same metric on Cylance?

The only other complaint is IP revs which BB beat by $19M vs. an estimate that came in lower. In my books that a good thing but ...................... thank goodness people that manage real money buy stock. We never complain when the weather people miss on their forecasts almost every day, but we never hear the end of it when a company like BB beats on IP revs big time and its considered a negative. No punishment for analysts. I still believe these issues are a non-event.

Am I starting to sound like Trump? Fake analysts.

LMHO mate about fake news!!!

Let me just add my two cents!! LOL

The more we read and start believing in the news and what analyst write, that is when we have become a sheep!!!

[rytwjyx]

I have to respond to your comments above. I'm not going to try and sell you a bill of goods for a singular investment that isn't performing like the top 100 out there today. So don't worry about that and give me a chance here!

BlackBerry has one positive thing going for it; it isn't disappearing anytime soon. Sure, there are 1,000's of other stocks with that profile, but, thanks to "you", we know a great deal more about BB then all of the others. So let's choose BB as our investment on the premise that it will still be around for the next few years.

I would suggest that the one positive in owning such a high beta stock are the option premiums that it generates time and time again. You can earn 40% ROI on BB year in and out. By writing covered calls against your holdings, you can compound that 30 - 40% each year and make serious returns. So why don't we all do this now? There is a learning curve that goes with option writing and not everyone is prepared to take the time to understand the process.

You need to know that over 90% of option buyers lose on their investment due to time premium decay. This tells you that you should be the one selling/writing calls and not be the buyer of the same. If you sell calls against your holdings 6 times per year (every 2 months), at say $ .60/each, you have $ 3.00 in cash to buy even more stock down the road. On a $ 10 stock that's a 30% rate of return and you are compounding it. This stock moves enough to generate that much easily. I would suggest 40% straight is achievable annually.

When option writers talk about their writing programs, they state the gains in terms of annualized returns. Someone like W Hoa who preaches TA and determines when the stock is overbought/sold will make even better returns. So there is a way to make a ton of money holding onto BB if you are willing to give up the right to others to control your initial investment. Remember, well over 90% of buyers of options lose their money so you are the one with less then a 10% chance of even losing your stock utilizing this program.

The best part of an option call writing strategy is that you set and forget it. You buy the stock time the option write, complete the transaction and go golfing for 2 months. Come back and do it again etc.. The good news is that you get the cash up front, this means you are compounding this investment from the day you write the first call option. Anyone can do this and I'm sure it will take the pressure off you trying to turn BB into a stellar investment that you can tell that girlfriend of yours about and be proud.

I know this is long winded but hopefully you can see that an option writing program can make you plenty of returns even on a frustrating play like BlackBerry.

Thank you Morgan for educating the forum over all these years. In the past I've really just either traded on ERs and seldomly based on RSI, and even with just that I've not lost money on BB. I would like to give covered call writing a try but one thing I've been wondering is how to come up with the strike price?

Also do you also employ the same strategy with your other positions like SPHS/EYPT, or are they too "volatile" for that? (edit: I just looked up both stocks and saw the Bid column all empty under Calls, so I suppose that means no one is interested in buy calls for these two. Is that due to recent news that made them bearish? Or is that the way it is with small cap stocks?)

Thanks in advance...

[Corbu]

Autonomous cars to quadruple vehicle software revenues to $1.2 trillion by 2030: Continental

[smithm565]

BlackBerry v. FB & Snap lawsuit update:

Case# 2:18-cv-01844 - FB
Case# 2:18-cv-02693 - Snap

...

3/25/19 - BB filed a motion to strike declaration of Facebook expert Johnathan Katz. Motion set for hearing on 4/1/19.

...
______________________
BIG DAY TOMORROW. Start of Markman Hearings.


Posted via CB10

UPDATE : 4/2/19 minutes from Markman Hearing filed

- A status conference is set for 4/22/19 & joint scheduling report to be filed by 4/11/19.

- "The Court would DENY BlackBerry 's motion to strike (Docket# 134)"

- All parties have agreed to 6 claim terms.
- BlackBerry & Facebook have agreed to 3 additional terms.
- BlackBerry & Snap have agreed to 1 additional term.
- Court determined 1 term "proxy content server" does not need construction.
- Court defined 1 term "content information" using a mix of BB & FB definition, but looks closer to FB definition.
- Court left 1 term "meta tag.." to be determined at a later stage.
- Court concludes that Defendants have shown that Claim 2 of the '929 patent fails to meet the requirements and is invalid.
- Court finds no construction of the term "Wireless communication device" is necessary.
- Court defined 1 term "messaging correspondent", close to BB definition.
- Court agreed with BB on 1 term "a numeric character..."
- Court declines to construe term "predetermined duration of time".
- Court agreed with BB on 1 term "notification"
- Court agreed with FB on 1 term "reducing mod q"
- Court finds no construction necessary on 1 term "predetermined distance"
- Court agreed generally with BlackBerry on 1 term "activity level"

Summary:
- Deny of BlackBerry motion to strike#134
- Court construed 12 disputed terms



Posted via CB10

[Rice Dawg]

Wow! The plot thickens.
I hope Pushkal and Judge Wu got on well back in the day.

Lol. I imagine the transcript of an upcoming BlackBerry ER to read something like "...and we just got new licensing deals from three major players in the Social Media stratoshpere, but we can't disclose who".

I think for everyone's mental well-being's sake we should not expect anything of substance from these suits, nevermind a windfall like the Qualcomm arbitration in '17. These are companies with nearly unlimited resources and can afford to tie this up in court for a decade without a whisker's impact to their bottom line.

Appreciate smithm565's timely updates for sure, though!

[Corbu]

Call for Questions for BB Management

If any of you have questions for BB's Management, please post them here, before next Monday noon. I'll pass them along and post the answers we manage to get. All questions welcome. No promises as to whether/how they will be answered.

There you go!

[Bacon Munchers]

I think for everyone's mental well-being's sake we should not expect anything of substance from these suits, nevermind a windfall like the Qualcomm arbitration in '17. These are companies with nearly unlimited resources and can afford to tie this up in court for a decade without a whisker's impact to their bottom line.

Appreciate smithm565's timely updates for sure, though!

... true that a behemoth company like fb could tie this up for years, but as long as BlackBerry has a credible suit (which they do), the outcome could sue for additional losses.
The bottom line is that after 'terms' are defined, then the court only needs to start crossing off claims that don't have enough weight.

I recall when going through my large patent (52 pages), we claimed everything including the kitchen sink.
In the end, we got a skinnied-down list, which was what we were truely going for anyway. A similar thing occurs in litigation: you shoot for the stars and end up hopefully with something you were really suing for.

I agree with you in the infringement claim not necessarily gaining billions in cash, but I do think a decent licensing deal is in the cards for all three soc media giants.

PS - kinda funny that the companies that dropped support for BB10 are getting sued though. Almost poetic justice, but I suppose I do understand the main reason it happened.

[rarsen]

General information for those with an interest in data breaches:

https://www.malwarebytes.com/data-br...m_content=laws
Which are the biggest data breaches?
10. LinkedIn | 117 million
9. eBay | 145 million
8. Equifax | 145.5 million
7. Under Armour | 150 million
6. Exactis | 340 million
5. Myspace | 360 million
4. AdultFriendFinder | 412 million
3. Yahoo | 500 million
2. Marriott International | 500 million
1. Yahoo—again | 3 billion

Hundreds of millions of Facebook user records were exposed on Amazon cloud server
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/million...-cloud-server/
Facebook is under federal criminal investigation for deals it struck with electronics manufacturers to access user data, and it has been hit a series of security breaches over the past year.

When people start to realize the implications, should permit BB/Cylance to increase some of its business. Or remove several apps presently being used.

[Corbu]

Greened, rarsen and morganplus8 like this.

[Bacon Munchers]

General information for those with an interest in data breaches:


Hundreds of millions of Facebook user records were exposed on Amazon cloud server
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/million...-cloud-server/
Facebook is under federal criminal investigation for deals it struck with electronics manufacturers to access user data, and it has been hit a series of security breaches over the past year...

And yet there it is. Way up and moving towards the mountain it used to perch itself on. Why!? I hear everywhere people saying that they don't really use it much anymore, yet the stock rockets higher.

Geesh! I feel like I am living in The Truman Show.


Any-who, remember when sir Chen blurbed that BlackBerry will head more into AI and Heathcare?

https://cta.tech/News/Press-Releases...sociation.aspx

Organizations taking part in the CTA working group include:

AdvaMed
American Telemedicine Association
AT&T Inc

BlackBerry

Brookings Institution
CarePredict, Inc.
The Connected Health Initiative
Doctor on Demand
Federation of State Medical Boards
Fitbit, Inc.
Google Inc.
Humetrix
IBM
IDx Technologies Inc.
Isowalk
Livongo
NeuroMetrix
NeuroSky
Osso VR
Philips
Reemo Health
Samsung Electronics
SDI Technologies, Inc.
SHIFT Performance Global
Valencell, Inc.
Validic
Verizon
Volar Health, LLC

[Bacon Munchers]

Call for Questions for BB Management

If any of you have questions for BB's Management, please post them here, before next Monday noon. I'll pass them along and post the answers we manage to get. All questions welcome. No promises as to whether/how they will be answered.

There you go!

Only one so far:

Can BlackBerry please disclose what user name John Chen uses in our thread? The suspense is crushing!

[Corbu]

rarsen, morganplus8, dusdal and 2 others like this.

[rarsen]

Observing increased discussions on AI Implementation, understanding better the interest in acquisition of Cylance expertise opportunities :

Going Mobile: AI Implementation in Smartphones and Apps
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/going...120000233.html
"A report from Zion Market Research projects that the global mobile AI market will reach $22.4 billion by 2024. Most mobile phone users are aware of AI implementation in the form of Siri for iOS, and Google Assistant for Android, but the technology is being leveraged in a wide range of uses in the industry. Whether it’s cybersecurity as with BlackBerry’s Cylance, AGI search and retrieval as with Gopher’s Avant! or intelligent IoT application as with Inseego’s Skyus routers, AI seems likely to continue to find new uses in the mobile market."

[Corbu]

BlackBerry Announces Inducement Awards Pursuant to NYSE Rule 303A.08

[Superfly_FR]

Just ... you now ... missing you guys
Another Sunday in my soho's agenda, just wanted to pop and say hi to (much, too much) missed crackberrian's friends. Hope everybody's fine, the market's evil enough to let you shout & rant but moreover, everybody's investments fine.
Wit <3 from France,
Supa

[vasilisiou]

Posted via CB10

[smithm565]

Bitglass, a rising startup, developing a cloud service that helps to protect corporate data uses Cylance to provide malware protection in it's management of SaaS apps & IaaS (such as AWS & Azure).

https://venturebeat.com/2019/04/08/b...loyee-devices/

Posted via CB10

[rarsen]

OT for those with general interest in police surveillance possibilities:

What you should know about the ‘Stingray’ surveillance device used by police
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canad...cid=spartandhp