[bbjdog]

https://crackberry.com/blackberry-co...car-technology

F!!!, the Canadian government should be investing as much as it did in **** GM. Talk about take and leave you to die!!!!!

Hope the gang is all well and cheers to all the great contributors here!!!!

[masterful]

OT: ACB & WEED

Hi Morgan, when you have a little spare time then could you please take a look at WEED earning report yesterday. I believe that you were interested in their report rather than ACB

[Corbu]

-9:15 a.m. ET: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau makes announcement in Kanata alongside BlackBerry CEO John Chen

BlackBerry bets on Kanata, pledging 800 new jobs

LIVE

[Seadog83]

02/14/0219 GS Research Note

BB – GS: GS Tech and Internet Conference 2019 - Key Takeaways

Key Highlights:

· Demand: While BlackBerry acknowledged that its unit numbers in any given quarter would be impacted by volatility in the SAAR, it also noted that its customers are committed to next-gen technology investment irrespective of medium-term macro. The pace of innovation in the connected car ecosystem has accelerated in the last 5 years, in part due to new entrants such as Tesla.

· Growth: Autonomous functionality and electrification are expanding the footprint for QNX given its heritage as a real time operating system and functional safety certifications. BlackBerry has good visibility into medium-term growth given the timing of design wins and its broad reach across the auto sector. In prior cycles, BlackBerry would have interacted primarily with the infotainment team. Today, BlackBerry interacts with centralized software design teams that plan technology roadmaps across infotainment, digital cockpit, autonomous, and other applications. BlackBerry sees the potential for automotive vendors to standardize software development on a single platform like QNX. Given this visibility and the opportunity ahead, R&D investment internally could pick up.

· Content and ASPs: QNX has expanded beyond infotainment to cover functionality including digital instrument clusters, telematics, Level 2+ ADAS systems, gateways, chassis controllers, and engine controllers. Wins today can be as many as 5 – 10 modules, compared to 1-2 modules historically. BlackBerry believes ASPs can expand many multiples above what they are seeing today. Its hypervisor remains differentiated in the marketplace, commanding a higher dollar value relative to other pieces of the platform.

· Competition: BlackBerry believes its safety certifications are highly differentiated relative to competitors such as Automotive Grade Linux and Android Auto. BlackBerry believes that barriers to entry remain high; for example, its ISO 26262 safety certification requires years of investment and work to become certified.

· Our 12-month price target is $8.00 for BB and C$11.00 for BB.TO based on 1.35 USD:CAD. Our BB price target is based on 1) 85% fundamental value of $7.50 (2.5x 2019 revenue) and 2) 15% M&A value of $11 (4.5x 2019E sales). Key risks include: timing of new design wins in QNX and IP, and M&A optionality.

Where did 2.5x come from? I remember other's saying 3.4, 3.7 which too is BS and wholly arbitrary, seems like a number pulled out of the air.

This doesn't seem like a case of moving goal posts, it seems like a case of changing how goals are counted. Like in football after the game ends saying that touchdowns will only be worth 2 points, because if we stick with the historical 6, the team which needs to lose would not have. Literally a case of starting with the desired result, and working backwards to get it.

"As everyone knows, BB is a bum company on a downward trajectory that will be worth less tomorrow than it is today. In light of increasing revenues, the winding down of continued expenses related to shuttering hardware, and a perfectly fitting Cylance merger which should close soon and add hundreds of millions to revenue, we've had to slash our price/sales ratio to well below any comparable company. Not doing so would have a material effect on BB's ability to show continued price declines."

-

That $40m sounds like a step in the right direction. Surprised the market hasn't punished BB for getting more money using the logic that only a company in dire straights would need free gov't money. Just like how it must be the absolute wealthiest out there who go to payday loan shops. Afterall who else could afford 150% interest?

[drobbie]

-9:15 a.m. ET: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau makes announcement in Kanata alongside BlackBerry CEO John Chen

BlackBerry bets on Kanata, pledging 800 new jobs

LIVE

I love that they are creating 1000 co-op placements. I went through a co-op program in university and it was one of the best choices made so far.

[morganplus8]

OT: ACB & WEED

Hi Morgan, when you have a little spare time then could you please take a look at WEED earning report yesterday. I believe that you were interested in their report rather than ACB

Hi Masterful,

WEED came out with 50% higher gross revenues vs. ACB, but their margins were only 13% on that amount while ACB was at 56%. Its also clear that ACB is going to ramp up much faster then WEED over the balance of this year. So even though their revenues looked good on paper, they achieved those gains by missing on revs the past 3 quarters followed by a huge inventory build. To top it all off, they were crippled on medical sales this Q and that's where all the big margins live so I'm taking away from all of this that ACB is in a very good position to take the #1 spot in volume sales and margins this year. Its difficult for me to believe analysts that WEED is #1 in anyway in this sector when ACB will out-produce them and earn more. For instance, ACB claims they will be EBITDA positive next Q, WEED is nowhere near that op.

There are so many things to consider here but if the market loves WEED's Q numbers for this past quarter, they are going to love ACB's numbers going forward, they just haven't figured it out yet. The diluted value of WEED is $34 billion right now, for ACB it is $ 11B so there is something wrong with the comparables here. I would not go near WEED but I'm going to hold onto my ACB shares and add more.

The missing piece of this puzzle is the deal that WEED holds, they sold control and ownership of their company to Const. Brands. ACB needs to choose a partner in crime like Pfizer and than watch the stock triple. ACB has told us that they have turned down all offers so far based upon guidance from others in the US. With 23 countries and a host of platforms to produce product, a pharma deal makes sense to me and I believe it will happen at these prices.

Okay, that's enough!

A quick shout out to this thread for the latest updates on BB in the past 24 hours, BlackBerry is looking so good for the latter half of this year. It is inching toward $ 9.00/shr but that means nothing compared to what it can do starting in June.

[Corbu]

Investment in automotive innovation to make vehicles safer and create jobs for Canadians

[dusdal]

I love that they are creating 1000 co-op placements. I went through a co-op program in university and it was one of the best choices made so far.

Having done a couple apprenticeships and now medicine, I wish more programs included co-op placements.

It gives you a much better idea of what your future career might look like, makes your learning way more relevant and enables those who are already working to teach and continue to grow themselves.

[masterful]

thank you Morgan, for your time as always.

[W Hoa]

This is a bit of a conundrum. Daily RSI sitting right at 70 and Canadian markets closed on Monday.

[morganplus8]

This is a bit of a conundrum. Daily RSI sitting right at 70 and Canadian markets closed on Monday.

I hear you! We are at the top of the BB's ($ 8.67/shr/us) and RSI=70 so there isn't too much drive here. Still I think we'll head towards $ 9.00 and base out enough times to work off the RSI. GL

[W Hoa]

Still I think we'll head towards $ 9.00 and base out enough times to work off the RSI. GL

I'm inclined to hang on this time. At least until Cylance news. And then it gets tougher with earnings coming next month.

[Seadog83]

That's why I chose $9.00 as it places us in the RSI>70 area but it will be somewhat less as the slow pace keeps the RSI levels in check. I believe we can hit $9.00 and a RSI=70 by the end of this month.

Up until 2018 the RSI was a pretty decent indicator to make money simply selling at 70+, and buying at 30-.

As I mentioned before, sadly I never took advantage of it as I was fearful being out of the stock prior to a big move which has been just around the corner since late 2011 when BB10 was to be released... This past summer after hitting low 20s, it was ripe for a move up, but instead it just lingered for a while sideways for a quarter until RSI increased, and then continued it stoic march downwards... The signal there was buy, but doing so would have resulted in almost halving your money.

Why is the RSI to be relied upon now? I've been in the stock for the better part of a decade now, and if nothing else has been a spectacular lesson in the irrationality of the markets, and an exercise in patience. In short over the last two years there are lots of examples of 70 being the sign that we're about the shed 1/3rd our value, whereas an RSI of 20 could mean we're just not going to shed another 1/3rd for at least another 2 months.

[bbjdog]

Up until 2018 the RSI was a pretty decent indicator to make money simply selling at 70+, and buying at 30-.

As I mentioned before, sadly I never took advantage of it as I was fearful being out of the stock prior to a big move which has been just around the corner since late 2011 when BB10 was to be released... This past summer after hitting low 20s, it was ripe for a move up, but instead it just lingered for a while sideways for a quarter until RSI increased, and then continued it stoic march downwards... The signal there was buy, but doing so would have resulted in almost halving your money.

Why is the RSI to be relied upon now? I've been in the stock for the better part of a decade now, and if nothing else has been a spectacular lesson in the irrationality of the markets, and an exercise in patience. In short over the last two years there are lots of examples of 70 being the sign that we're about the shed 1/3rd our value, whereas an RSI of 20 could mean we're just not going to shed another 1/3rd for at least another 2 months.

Really mate! You grab one indicator and think you have found the Holy Grail!!! It's a good indicator , but don't just close your eyes and hope for the best mate!!!

Corbu mate, I haven't seen your girlfriends lately and I'm getting pretty lonely mate........

[Corbu]

Here you go, mate!

[bbjdog]

Here you go, mate!

Sorry mate that won't do!! The BlackBerry phone is to covered up. Lol