View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1129. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    702 62.18%
  • No

    427 37.82%
  1. rampagingpanda's Avatar
    I understand that many of us here are feeling the pains in our portfolios.

    However, none of us are foreign to BlackBerry and it's volatile and seemingly nonsensical movements in the market. I too am surprised that we're sinking below $8 and possibly drifting to mid and low 7's. However, much of the recent decline isn't really due to BlackBerry at all. Look at the FANG stocks, or any high tech fliers. Their multiples are getting knocked down, and dragging the entire sector with them.

    For those who truly believe in the story of this company, it's really in a way a gift, to buy more shares at a discount (full disclosure, I've doubled my position). BlackBerry has been under performing mainly due to it's declining revenues. That should stop very soon, especially with the Cylance acquisition, and legacy revenues reducing to immaterial significance. It becomes a much easier story to sell to the market once those revenues do grow.

    We're finally seeing BlackBerry take on some risks, to grow the top line revenue. We've waited for a long time for Chen to deploy BB's war chest; hopefully his pragmatism prevails.

    GLTA
    12-13-18 11:04 PM
  2. fanBBRY's Avatar
    I could be wrong, but with what is public right now regarding the acquisition, I am seeing a short term negative hit to the stock price. Not seeing any reason to shed out more than $400 Million for Cylance as a standalone business, comparing to valuation of Symantec. Quick search on google trends on Cylance also not supportive of any explosive growth.

    But maybe Chen is seeing some bundled synergy benefits with the sales force.

    What do you guys think on the valuation of Cylance and market reaction next week?
    My take is we are in significant oversold territory and should be seeing a pretty steep recovery starting from here. Last call to buy at 52 week low. Ding ding ding!!!!
    morganplus8, Greened and rarsen like this.
    12-14-18 11:05 AM
  3. Corbu's Avatar
    https://www.cantechletter.com/2018/1...ne-poole-says/
    BlackBerry’s future is still unclear, Christine Poole says

    morganplus8 and rarsen like this.
    12-14-18 11:05 AM
  4. Seadog83's Avatar
    https://www.cantechletter.com/2018/1...ne-poole-says/
    BlackBerry’s future is still unclear, Christine Poole says
    I don't know how people go on record with these sorts of comments. "Unclear as to how they'll grow top line"? “The company is indicating that they can make some acquisitions and try that, but there’s just not a lot of clarity,”?

    It's like she completely missed the whole Cylance thing, and the software rev part trippling in a few years.

    Every day seems more of the same. As difficult as it was in 2012/13 or so the punishment felt somewhat warranted due to horrid BB10 sales and no obvious path out.

    Now, we've completely changed the business, there is an obvious path forward, yet the market is valuing it the same. Nearly at half of the Jan highs, with nothing but good news, and not a single thing to point your finger at and shake your head at. (Like 2011 BBM outage, 2013 BB10 sales, etc) Truly mind boggling. Wish I had more dry powder, semi considered opening a margin again to double down on an already huge position, however one thing I learned from this stock is it never fails to surprise both on the up and down side. I honestly wouldn't put it past this market to discount the 1.4b paid for Cylance to 0 and punish the stock accordingly, since even the most aggressive bear will concede that cash has value (maybe at 0.70 on the dollar in BB's books), but a company that BB has an interest in? Worthless.

    -

    On a side note, I looked into the balance sheet as I was thinking we must be approaching book value again. I see intangibles are only valued at 477m, down almost $1b in the last 3 years? Given that they apparently paid about 770m for a share of 6000 nortel patents in 2011, and they have some 34000 more on top of this, how did they come to this number? Given that IP is supposed to generate 100m of high margin revenue/yr, how do they value it's worth at a PE of 5 or so. Now obviously the value of patents is fairly qualitative and there's some room for debate there, but does it benefit them to play down their book value in any way? Are the depreciated linarly over their 20 year life? Like a lot of things with this company, I'm confused how IP shed 2/3rds it's value in 3 years, despite finally being monetized more than ever.
    12-14-18 12:03 PM
  5. morganplus8's Avatar
    my goodness, i get ulcers watching this stock...

    How can we be back in the 7s??
    We hear you. BB has emptied their cash hoard, cash less bond debt isn't that strong now. The Dow is down 440 pts today and over 3,000 pts from the recent high. The Nasq is getting killed too. Look around, the market looks weak and no one wants be caught holding much stock. For BlackBerry, this means shareholders will have to wait for more clarity re: their latest deal. The story keeps getting better all the time but the market won't touch it. Funds are likely selling to take those trades off their books. The New Year will give us more clarity and Funds can come back into the trade.

    Hate the action but I love the trade.
    12-14-18 12:11 PM
  6. JLagoon's Avatar
    Hi all. Hi Morgan.

    I am still holding, but this action is unbelievable. Indicators are showing that BB is oversold, but as historical data shows, each recovery gets wiped out. This makes the stock great for trading up and down, but is unreasonably volatile for long term investors.

    I hope, John Chen will not be too conservative in the next earnings call. However, I am not sure if that will make any difference. As if the market refuses to understand the value of the company at all. It is the unquestionable leader in its business. *sigh*

    Does anyone know about the latest on the FB lawsuit, by the way?
    12-14-18 12:49 PM
  7. bbjdog's Avatar
    From my TD alerts

    Analyst Actions: RBC Capital Maintains Sector Perform, US$11 TP on Blackberry Ahead of Q32018-12-14 02:16:09 PM ET (MT Newswires)

    02:16 PM EST, 12/14/2018 (MT Newswires) -- RBC Capital has reiterated its Sector Perform and US$11 TP on Blackberry, noting the company's shares have declined 14% (vs. S&P500 -3%) since the US$1.4 billion Cylance acquisition was announced. The acquisition reduces BlackBerry's net cash by $3.39/share in Q3 to an estimated $0.98/share in Q4, which removes a key backstop for the stock and is likely to amplify share price volatility.

    RBC expects Q3 results essentially in line with the Street, with upside possible due to the settlement with Nokia. "It's possible that BlackBerry may recognize a portion of the settlement upfront, which could lift Q3 IP licensing revenue above our $56 million estimate," the brokerage adds.

    BlackBerry is reporting Q3 on December 20. RBC is forecasting adj. EPS of US$0.02, matching the Street.

    Price: 10.13, Change: -0.15, Percent Change: -1.46
    Corbu, La Emperor, rarsen and 2 others like this.
    12-14-18 04:00 PM
  8. smithm565's Avatar
    12-14-18 07:52 PM
  9. morganplus8's Avatar
    Hi all. Hi Morgan.

    I am still holding, but this action is unbelievable. Indicators are showing that BB is oversold, but as historical data shows, each recovery gets wiped out. This makes the stock great for trading up and down, but is unreasonably volatile for long term investors.

    I hope, John Chen will not be too conservative in the next earnings call. However, I am not sure if that will make any difference. As if the market refuses to understand the value of the company at all. It is the unquestionable leader in its business. *sigh*

    Does anyone know about the latest on the FB lawsuit, by the way?
    Well!! Welcome back JLagoon!!

    Hope all is well with you? Also glad to hear that you are tied to BB even if it is one of the toughest trades out there today. I really like what BB is doing now and if the stock price can stay here until the New Year I'll hold a record amount of it then.

    Funny, we complain because they sat on a hoard of cash for so long and it earned absolutely nothing for us for so many years. Now, they spend it all on one big purchase and we're nervous! If we get a nominal return on that investment of 10% net by the end of 2019 that's a big improvement for BB. We benefit from cash flow, EPS and % growth with this deal so the next year should be very promising indeed.

    If can can buy this for $ 8/shr/US in January I'll be all over it. I do believe that BB thought long and hard about this deal and they would know far more then us whether it makes sense and drives BB forward or not. I'll place my bet on them in January in a big way because of this. When Chen was promoting smaller deals in the $ 400 - $ 600M range, I don't think anyone including Chen saw this deal coming so it must be special.

    Best of luck and welcome back! We need one of your charts if you have the time my friend.
    La Emperor, Corbu, rarsen and 4 others like this.
    12-15-18 10:19 AM
  10. bbjdog's Avatar
    John Chen would not spend that amount of money without knowing the company is in good shape. What do people think, it's his first time at doing such a thing!!!! Long live BB ( LMHO because it sounds like a ?????).
    12-15-18 12:02 PM
  11. huwit's Avatar
    first post with a none bb10 devine. Hello from my k2 LE
    12-15-18 04:12 PM
  12. Seadog83's Avatar
    Well!! Welcome back JLagoon!!

    Hope all is well with you? Also glad to hear that you are tied to BB even if it is one of the toughest trades out there today. I really like what BB is doing now and if the stock price can stay here until the New Year I'll hold a record amount of it then.

    Funny, we complain because they sat on a hoard of cash for so long and it earned absolutely nothing for us for so many years. Now, they spend it all on one big purchase and we're nervous! If we get a nominal return on that investment of 10% net by the end of 2019 that's a big improvement for BB. We benefit from cash flow, EPS and % growth with this deal so the next year should be very promising indeed.

    If can can buy this for $ 8/shr/US in January I'll be all over it. I do believe that BB thought long and hard about this deal and they would know far more then us whether it makes sense and drives BB forward or not. I'll place my bet on them in January in a big way because of this. When Chen was promoting smaller deals in the $ 400 - $ 600M range, I don't think anyone including Chen saw this deal coming so it must be special.

    Best of luck and welcome back! We need one of your charts if you have the time my friend.
    Although I haven't bought any more BB in over 3 years after tripling down in 2015, given what they've done and at the current price, I can't help but see a screaming bargain and my trigger finger is getting itchy.

    Sadly I don't have any money not tied up in other equally hurting stocks, so was curious your (and others') opinion on what the best way to go long(er) with no money is. The two things I can think of are either margin, which frankly being debt scares me, but is far less complicated and obvious. Or, going long via selling long dated puts. 7.50 Jan '20 puts are selling at 1.15 which means the main way to lose would be for the stock to fall below 6.35 after earnings, and stay there for the next year. If I'm feeling really bold maybe take the premiums and put them into $10 calls. I do believe we'll at least see $12 in the next year at some point. People seem to forget it was a mere 11 weeks since we were last there, and multiple times there and higher in the previous year, all on fundamentally the same or worse metrics.

    The thing that concerns me there however is that everyone has always gone on about how dangerous options are, and no one ever makes money. I've read a lot about it, *think* I understand them, and frankly they don't seem that complicated. Perhaps the certain instances of people going into situations with potentially unlimited loss and getting screwed sit heavier than the alternatives, but from my end it seems like a pretty safe play.

    You also mentioned before about different ways of accounting for options into your average cost basis, and that everyone who trades options gets audited - this too concerns me and was wondering if you could elaborate a bit on both the tax and auditing consequences.
    JLagoon, Greened and morganplus8 like this.
    12-15-18 05:07 PM
  13. fanBBRY's Avatar
    From my TD alerts

    Analyst Actions: RBC Capital Maintains Sector Perform, US$11 TP on Blackberry Ahead of Q32018-12-14 02:16:09 PM ET (MT Newswires)

    02:16 PM EST, 12/14/2018 (MT Newswires) -- RBC Capital has reiterated its Sector Perform and US$11 TP on Blackberry, noting the company's shares have declined 14% (vs. S&P500 -3%) since the US$1.4 billion Cylance acquisition was announced. The acquisition reduces BlackBerry's net cash by $3.39/share in Q3 to an estimated $0.98/share in Q4, which removes a key backstop for the stock and is likely to amplify share price volatility.

    RBC expects Q3 results essentially in line with the Street, with upside possible due to the settlement with Nokia. "It's possible that BlackBerry may recognize a portion of the settlement upfront, which could lift Q3 IP licensing revenue above our $56 million estimate," the brokerage adds.

    BlackBerry is reporting Q3 on December 20. RBC is forecasting adj. EPS of US$0.02, matching the Street.

    Price: 10.13, Change: -0.15, Percent Change: -1.46
    Pretty reasonable outlook from RBC with a target price of 11 USD, a 44% upside potential. They also give an upside scenario of 14 USD, an upside of 84% from friday’s close.

    I found the below commentary interesting, indicating increased price jumps going forward on earnings days.

    “Cylance expected to amplify short-term volatility. The $1.4B Cylance acquisition reduces BlackBerry’s net cash from $3.39/share Q3 to an estimated $0.98/share Q4, or 44% of BlackBerry’s share price to 13%. The reduction in BlackBerry’s net cash reduces a key backstop for the stock and is likely to amplify share price volatility around quarterly results and changes in investor sentiment regarding future growth.”

    https://www.rbcinsight.com/WM/share/...N4GR75hg==&a=a
    Last edited by fanBBRY; 12-15-18 at 09:29 PM.
    JLagoon, morganplus8 and Greened like this.
    12-15-18 08:45 PM
  14. rarsen's Avatar
    For those with an interest in Security, a friend of mine recently retired continues to write industrial articles including Security:

    2018 June -- Technology Focus Thwarting cyber attacks in aviation
    https://iecetech.org/issue/2018-06/T...ks-in-aviation
    Aviation safety requires a holistic, systems-based approach
    https://iecetech.org/issue/2018-06/A...based-approach
    Some of these are linked to technology shortcomings such as software glitches, equipment or control systems failures; others, like cyber attacks, which may exploit known weaknesses, are deliberate. The industry also faces risks of a physical nature, essentially from terrorism, which have been the focus of protective measures for decades.
    Cyber threats (such as ransomware and viruses) targeting other sectors may also affect the aviation industry. This was the case with the NotPetya ransomware that saw Ukraine’s Boryspil International Airport in Kiev lose access to its systems in June 2017.
    A US Department of Homeland Security official hacked into the systems of a Boeing 757 passenger aircraft parked at Atlantic City airport, New Jersey, in September 2016. This was “a remote, non-cooperative penetration” without insider help or being onboard, using “typical stuff that could get through security”. It raises questions about the safety of onboard avionics systems.
    2015 April -- App fail on iPad grounds 'a few dozen' American Airlines flights
    https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...irline-flights
    Last edited by rarsen; 12-16-18 at 07:36 AM. Reason: Added an article
    12-16-18 06:45 AM
  15. _dimi_'s Avatar
    Hi everyone,


    I have my own theory why the share price could currently be this low. It might be in the interest of current Cylance employees, if/when they are compensated in BlackBerry shares? Looking at Glassdoor reviews, it seems some employees (or trolls, you never know) are unhappy about their prospects under BlackBerry management. At least one of them indicated that they'd be given BB shares...

    Posted via CB10
    La Emperor and morganplus8 like this.
    12-17-18 05:56 AM
  16. fanBBRY's Avatar
    Cylance releases virtual chief information security officer service:

    Friday 14 December 2018 | 16:15 CET | News

    Cylance announced the availability of its virtual chief information security officer (vCISO) service, a programme under which seasoned security experts from Cylance provide organisations the expertise to detect and prevent cyber-attacks. Cylance vCISO taps a broad set of techniques including automation and artifact analysis to collect information and assess data. It also defines likely security scenarios to build risk profiles, recommend actions, and highlight internal strengths, allowing organisations to customise their approach to prevention-first security without having to customise all of the technology that supports their security environments.

    Cylance said its vCISO programme helps organisations manage day-to-day security needs and meet common security standards, frameworks, and compliance regulations such as NIST, ISO/IEC, SANS CIS, and more by assigning experienced security professionals with discrete expertise in the areas customers most want to invest in. Personnel work from remote locations or at a customer’s physical address, depending on the needs and urgency of the project.
    Corbu, rarsen, FeitaInc and 3 others like this.
    12-17-18 07:20 AM
  17. Corbu's Avatar
    https://www.zdnet.com/article/why-bl...ange-its-name/
    Why BlackBerry should change its name

    BlackBerry is all about enterprise software, services, security, and the Internet of Things these days. Why keep a name that mostly brings up an image of a keyboard-based smartphone?
    rarsen and morganplus8 like this.
    12-17-18 07:52 AM
  18. Redzinaldas's Avatar
    OT: SPHS

    Bloody day for SPHS after Phase 2B results?
    Premarket: -30%
    morganplus8 likes this.
    12-17-18 08:11 AM
  19. Redzinaldas's Avatar
    12-17-18 08:12 AM
  20. drobbie's Avatar
    Hi everyone,


    I have my own theory why the share price could currently be this low. It might be in the interest of current Cylance employees, if/when they are compensated in BlackBerry shares? Looking at Glassdoor reviews, it seems some employees (or trolls, you never know) are unhappy about their prospects under BlackBerry management. At least one of them indicated that they'd be given BB shares...

    Posted via CB10
    I would be unhappy too.
    12-17-18 08:18 AM
  21. masterful's Avatar
    OT: SPHS

    Bloody day for SPHS after Phase 2B results?
    Premarket: -30%
    Time to load up some cheap shares or average down.
    morganplus8 likes this.
    12-17-18 09:03 AM
  22. farmwersteve's Avatar
    Time to load up some cheap shares or average down.
    Frick. Sphs sure crapped the bed in terms of stock price

    Frustrating part is there are a handful of men walking around cancer free.

    What are the odds they get a buyout offer now that the company finally accepts.

    Would need to be $5 or more I would think to allow warrants to be exercised and let them cover their short

    But I obviously have no clue about this stuff, very frustrating to say the least.

    Turns out the 2nd dose was the worst decision they could have made, between the death and now no new responders, it dragged down the stock from $3 to this and wasted 6 months in the process.

    Any cooler heads able to talk me down!

    Btw, at this point I really don't see the point in selling, since I don't know what to buy instead to try and make it back.

    Bb sure seems like a steal right now, but I've thought that before too.

    Ug, I guess I will stick to what I know best, where is my tractor
    Corbu, rarsen, rytwjyx and 4 others like this.
    12-17-18 09:14 AM
  23. FeitaInc's Avatar
    Cylance releases virtual chief information security officer service:

    Friday 14 December 2018 | 16:15 CET | News

    Cylance announced the availability of its virtual chief information security officer (vCISO) service, a programme under which seasoned security experts from Cylance provide organisations the expertise to detect and prevent cyber-attacks. Cylance vCISO taps a broad set of techniques including automation and artifact analysis to collect information and assess data. It also defines likely security scenarios to build risk profiles, recommend actions, and highlight internal strengths, allowing organisations to customise their approach to prevention-first security without having to customise all of the technology that supports their security environments.

    Cylance said its vCISO programme helps organisations manage day-to-day security needs and meet common security standards, frameworks, and compliance regulations such as NIST, ISO/IEC, SANS CIS, and more by assigning experienced security professionals with discrete expertise in the areas customers most want to invest in. Personnel work from remote locations or at a customer’s physical address, depending on the needs and urgency of the project.
    This is a brilliant move. Just listened to the lawefare podcast, more specifically “http://lawfare.libsyn.com/senator-ma...er-doctrine”, and this directly addresses his third proposal (around 30 minutes in) on board accountability. Great stuff
    Corbu, La Emperor and morganplus8 like this.
    12-17-18 10:18 AM
  24. bbjdog's Avatar
    Morgan mate, I would really appreciate your insight into SPHS !! Not my field at all mate!!!
    12-17-18 06:35 PM
  25. rarsen's Avatar
    At least BlackBerry is mentioned on the list and yes, I am part of those who made a Xmas gift from me to me called KEY2:

    The 10 Best Smartphones for Last-Minute Gifts
    https://www.nasdaq.com/article/the-1...ifts-cm1070639
    "A BlackBerry (NYSE: BB ) on a best-of smartphone list in 2018? This isn't a time warp and technically, the $649 KEY2 isn't really a BlackBerry. It's a licensed product made by China's TCL However, if you're shopping for someone who's hanging onto an old BlackBerry device, desperately trying to avoid being forced to type with a virtual keyboard, the BlackBerry KEY2 is the best option for a modern upgrade. Unlike BlackBerries of old, it runs Android with access to all those Android Apps. In addition, it rocks a 4.5-inch high resolution touchscreen display, two-day battery life and it has a dual-camera system with optical zoom. But most importantly of all, the KEY2 has a physical keyboard."
    morganplus8 likes this.
    12-18-18 06:35 AM
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