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- https://www.recode.net/2018/4/16/172...decode-podcast
‘Somebody should make’ a new BlackBerry-like phone, says BlackBerry CEO John Chen
Podcast. 53 minutes.04-16-18 08:52 AMLike 7 - Well, a second day does indeed add confidence as it closes at/near it's hod. And for the record, I do own this one and want it to do well..... just lack confidence in the quick moves. However, it is currently over the 200-dma with authority and this is the first full day trading over that level since June of last year.04-16-18 03:12 PMLike 0
- Still well above the 200 and was outside the bb's. Looking forward to seeing what the rest of the week brings in it.farmwersteve likes this.04-16-18 03:46 PMLike 1
- MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC
James E Faucette
April 16, 2018 11:17 PM GMT
BlackBerry Ltd
Many Irons in the Fire, but None Hot Enough to Make a Mark (yet)
We hosted BB’s new head of IR in investor meetings. We came away convinced that the company can continue to pursue optionality, but there is still work to be done to prove out businesses, particularly with the stock trading at 4.6x our FY20 rev estimate. We remain EW with a $10 PT.
Strategy focused on maintaining optionality. Since taking over BlackBerry in 2013, CEO John Chen has focused on finding interesting technologies and markets that BlackBerry could address while working to maintain optionality for its product portfolio, which to us seems like the best strategy. The company needs a growth product portfolio, so cutting more heads to maximize cash flow does not make sense to us.
Getting right go-to-market teams in place was a recurring theme. In our meetings with investors, we were struck by how frequently the conversation veered back to a recurring theme: upgrading the team to have improved go-to-market experience and talent. We think that the need to improve go-to-market talent at BlackBerry has been a contributor to the weaker than expected product growth over the last few years.
FY19 estimates look doable while FY20 look overly optimistic. Our new estimates are generally in line with consensus for FY19 (and think there may be slight upside potential), but consensus estimates of 11% revenue growth in FY20 may be too high (hence we are below consensus). In particular, we feel that revenue growth from QNX, RADAR, IP licensing, and the broader ESS segment are likely to evolve quite steadily, rather than inflecting upward as some seem to believe.
Analyst meeting to revisit products and targets, with a new auto OEM announcement possible. At its April 24th scheduled investor meeting, we would expect that most of the day will be spent breaking down the company’s product portfolio and market opportunities, and the company would like very much to make another significant auto OEM announcement. For us, we think OEMs largely view current decisions to use QNX as “catch-up” maneuvers, and ultimately we think QNX's success is tied to whether BlackBerry can convince OEMs that they will be unable to develop their own software stacks.
Remain EW. We remain EW with an 12-month $10 PT, which is 4x our FY20 revenue estimate. There is unlikely to be a enough of a clear inflection in any of the company’s product lines to merit substantially higher estimates and/or further rerating for the next year, especially given that the current multiple seems to embed a high level of optionality. We also think that the company is likely to weigh various potential acquisition targets that could reduce net-cash position.04-16-18 07:43 PMLike 5 - OT:
https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2018...m-chips-azure/
Microsoft’s bid to secure the Internet of Things: Custom Linux, custom chips, Azuremorganplus8 likes this.04-16-18 09:51 PMLike 1 - OT:
https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2018...m-chips-azure/
Microsoft’s bid to secure the Internet of Things: Custom Linux, custom chips, Azure04-17-18 01:08 AMLike 0 - MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC
James E Faucette
April 16, 2018 11:17 PM GMT
BlackBerry Ltd
Many Irons in the Fire, but None Hot Enough to Make a Mark (yet)
We hosted BB’s new head of IR in investor meetings. We came away convinced that the company can continue to pursue optionality, but there is still work to be done to prove out businesses, particularly with the stock trading at 4.6x our FY20 rev estimate. We remain EW with a $10 PT.
Strategy focused on maintaining optionality. Since taking over BlackBerry in 2013, CEO John Chen has focused on finding interesting technologies and markets that BlackBerry could address while working to maintain optionality for its product portfolio, which to us seems like the best strategy. The company needs a growth product portfolio, so cutting more heads to maximize cash flow does not make sense to us.
Getting right go-to-market teams in place was a recurring theme. In our meetings with investors, we were struck by how frequently the conversation veered back to a recurring theme: upgrading the team to have improved go-to-market experience and talent. We think that the need to improve go-to-market talent at BlackBerry has been a contributor to the weaker than expected product growth over the last few years.
FY19 estimates look doable while FY20 look overly optimistic. Our new estimates are generally in line with consensus for FY19 (and think there may be slight upside potential), but consensus estimates of 11% revenue growth in FY20 may be too high (hence we are below consensus). In particular, we feel that revenue growth from QNX, RADAR, IP licensing, and the broader ESS segment are likely to evolve quite steadily, rather than inflecting upward as some seem to believe.
Analyst meeting to revisit products and targets, with a new auto OEM announcement possible. At its April 24th scheduled investor meeting, we would expect that most of the day will be spent breaking down the company’s product portfolio and market opportunities, and the company would like very much to make another significant auto OEM announcement. For us, we think OEMs largely view current decisions to use QNX as “catch-up” maneuvers, and ultimately we think QNX's success is tied to whether BlackBerry can convince OEMs that they will be unable to develop their own software stacks.
Remain EW. We remain EW with an 12-month $10 PT, which is 4x our FY20 revenue estimate. There is unlikely to be a enough of a clear inflection in any of the company’s product lines to merit substantially higher estimates and/or further rerating for the next year, especially given that the current multiple seems to embed a high level of optionality. We also think that the company is likely to weigh various potential acquisition targets that could reduce net-cash position.
Although it remains to be seen what BlackBerry understands as major OEM. The last one, Jaguar, is only a small player becoming even smaller due to Brexit04-17-18 01:13 AMLike 0 -
1. somebody doesn't see the forrest for all the trees.
2. BB has been shipping a similar solution to the one that is outlined in that article for years and years.
you really need to loose the JC-is-horrible-bias, as you seem wilfully blind to whatever is actually going on, crave to find a negative angle and then tell this thread about it. And as we have touched on before, I for one am so tired of your negativity and I give up trying to persuade you to come around. note that if I could I would ban you from this thread. So final remarks, "I say Good day Sir".Greened likes this.04-17-18 03:43 AMLike 1 - two immediate thoughts:
1. somebody doesn't see the forrest for all the trees.
2. BB has been shipping a similar solution to the one that is outlined in that article for years and years.
you really need to loose the JC-is-horrible-bias, as you seem wilfully blind to whatever is actually going on, crave to find a negative angle and then tell this thread about it. And as we have touched on before, I for one am so tired of your negativity and I give up trying to persuade you to come around. note that if I could I would ban you from this thread. So final remarks, "I say Good day Sir".04-17-18 05:27 AMLike 0 -
-
- Christ, are you still going on? That's one thing I never understood people doing, is arbitrarily ignoring certain factors. "If they hadn't had this huge win the result would be this". Well they did, so let's quit playing dreamsies. Apple stock is garbage over the last 10 years, because if you ignore the effect of the iPhone, it really hasn't done much. Same as Netflix. They're only where they are because they've reinvented cable. If we ignore that, what's the value proposition?
My issue is that you seem to truly like the stock and believe in what they're doing, at least on a logical level. You follow the news, post (useful) updates about their products and lawsuits.
On an emotional level though you seem to act like a child throwing a tantrum. We hear nothing, and then when bb has another one of its numerous 25% corrections, based on literally nothing, you start going on an on over multiple forums what a garbage CEO Chen is.
You lack conviction. When the stock is doing well, you have your thesis, and market is confirming it. Great. When it's not, you still have your long thesis, but now all of a sudden you're a bandwagon jumper and want to short the stock. You seem to think people doing so are wrong logically, but you're so pissed at Chen who you blame for the fall, that you jump on board. You're the guy who paid 30% over asking for a home in Toronto last spring. There's no logical way it makes sense or way to make the number work, but ppl are making money doing it, so how can they be wrong?
I do believe there are factions out there that truly hate this company. Lots of people were laid off, lots of people bought at $100+ only to lose 90% of it. They would like nothing more that to see it tits up, if nothing else than to redeem them for their sale of stock at $7 for a $93 loss, as a smart move....
Because of this, I think that's part of the reason Chen gave such broad guidance. I think it was in the Q2 or Q3 questions, an analyst kept on asking questions and trying to rephrase something in a negative spin and Chen got a bit snippy at him. I think he's just not going to play their game. He figures whatever he says will get a bad spin so to hell with your guidance. Fairfax delsited from NYSE due to attacks, and for the second time in 3 weeks, the price of BB has closed *exactly* on max pain for options, so you have to be blind to think games aren't being played.
And is that so far off? You have people on Stock twits who post 100 negative messages a day. You have people on seeking alpha who within hours of great news post why it's actually bad and the stock is heading to 0. People looking in every corner of a silver sky to try and find that grey cloud. If they aren't paid, then I can't think of a reason for doing this beyond irrationally hating this company and wanting to see it fail.04-17-18 09:56 AMLike 12 - This is how we get to new 52 week highs. The positive here is that BB is a great short right now, you can short today, then at $ 11, $ 12, $ 13 and so on, that's how we get to $ 15.00/shr. It's no secret that the stock is being shorted today, we are absorbing that trade and moving higher despite it. Today we received approval from James Faucette to go higher and the general market is supporting a fresh rally now so enjoy the ride and let others build our base for $ 15.00/shr. GL
Side note regarding EYPT:
Come on people, count the shares, over 2.5 MM shares up, 10% of that down, when money clears out stock, they don't sit in front of their screens and micro manage a micro cap stock. You will see them clear it out again using their timeline. When large investors take a position so big that they can't sell it later, you know they have an agenda that supports much higher levels down the road. Let them do their thing. The news is great, the timeline is set for Nov. 5th of this year, let them work their magic on this one. Just enjoy their work and follow the volume. It is perfect, you just aren't used to seeing perfection.04-17-18 10:09 AMLike 6 - OT:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-ult...ave-1523978904
The Ultra-Cheap Phones Even iPhone Users Will Crave
Flip phones and candy bars are back, with low prices, great battery life and some modern conveniences
As JC just mentioned a 9900-based idea:
https://crackberry.com/john-chen-wan...900-smartphone04-17-18 12:14 PMLike 5 - Side note regarding EYPT:
Come on people, count the shares, over 2.5 MM shares up, 10% of that down, when money clears out stock, they don't sit in front of their screens and micro manage a micro cap stock. You will see them clear it out again using their timeline. When large investors take a position so big that they can't sell it later, you know they have an agenda that supports much higher levels down the road. Let them do their thing. The news is great, the timeline is set for Nov. 5th of this year, let them work their magic on this one. Just enjoy their work and follow the volume. It is perfect, you just aren't used to seeing perfection.
"On March 19, 2018, the FDA accepted pSivida’s NDA for Durasert micro-insert for treatment of non-infectious posterior segment uveitis, which will be subject to a standard review and has a Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) action date of November 5, 2018. Posterior segment uveitis is a high unmet need area with limited treatment options and the third leading cause of blindness in the U.S. If approved, pSivida expects to launch Durasert in the U.S. in the first half of 2019."
sorry for asking Morgan (or others), but any thoughts on SPHS?04-17-18 01:25 PMLike 3 - That was exactly my point. Since going short, why keep complaining about the CEO? If you're on the winning side of trade, supposedly caused by CEO "mismanagement" , why does that person on the winning side want it to change?04-17-18 01:50 PMLike 5
- just a quick reminder on what happens on the 5th, from a SEC filing:
"On March 19, 2018, the FDA accepted pSivida’s NDA for Durasert micro-insert for treatment of non-infectious posterior segment uveitis, which will be subject to a standard review and has a Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) action date of November 5, 2018. Posterior segment uveitis is a high unmet need area with limited treatment options and the third leading cause of blindness in the U.S. If approved, pSivida expects to launch Durasert in the U.S. in the first half of 2019."
sorry for asking Morgan (or others), but any thoughts on SPHS?
I'm holding onto all of the shares I have purchased for this one.04-17-18 03:33 PMLike 6 -
- Great post, you incapsulated many ideas into one message here. After having read it 3 times, I will make one point here. When BB won that $ 900 MM settlement AND QCOM agreed to do business with BB, the market discounted that settlement down to $ 500 MM bucks. In all of my years of doing this, I have never seen a discounted cash settlement before. When you look at it unfold ,and know they hold 44,000 patents, you would think there are more settlements to come, and in every instance, you would at the very least reckonize the cash value of that settlement. To me, this means there is more going on here then an open and fair market environment. I still think, and this is my own opinion here, that if the head office were in the US the stock would be trading at $ 20.00/shr today. There is a unique headwind going on here that Chen has to deal with and I believe you bring that out in your message here. Anyway, great insight. Thanks
This is what Muhlan I think doesn't get. He keeps on saying that the CEO needs to shore up excitement for the stock. Get people eager and build momentum.
A valiant desire, but one I honestly think is beyond the capabilities of Chen, or any CEO for that matter. As you yourself pointed out, the market discounted *Cash* by almost half. This, for a company, about which the worst thing you could say at the time was that it was treading water.
Numbers always trump emotion, and if numbers didn't do it, I'm not sure what degree of sweet talking and over promising it would take.
Nay, BB had their chance. "We eat Apples for Breakfast!". "BB10" "10s of millions of apps"
10s of millions of Q10s!" etc etc. In all cases, the market generally gave them the benefit of the doubt. In all cases BB disappointed through a combination of poor performance, technically correct, but wrong in the spirit of say the apps given that most were useless. Heins delivering results at the rock bottom of the guided range, then basically saying "Well I hit guidance." expecting rewards.
This is why Chen cannot no matter what afford to over promise and under deliver. BB has cried wolf one too many times, credibility is shot, and has bordered on toxic. As Buffet famously said, ""It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it." In 2008 BB had a reputation as a high flyer who could over come obstacles. People believed them and got burnt. Now they have a reputation as a broken phone manufacturer that people are surprised still exists. No amount of bluster and bombast will change that. Only the slow, repetitive results of delivering numbers as people (like our friend Faucette) every so slowly start to come around04-18-18 11:26 AMLike 7 - OT:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-ult...ave-1523978904
The Ultra-Cheap Phones Even iPhone Users Will Crave
Flip phones and candy bars are back, with low prices, great battery life and some modern conveniences
As JC just mentioned a 9900-based idea:
https://crackberry.com/john-chen-wan...900-smartphone
Glad that Chen is thinking ahead of the curve with the Corporate folks, but I still see too many CEO's with a hidden iPhone for their jollies.
Hey look! Our stock is moving!04-18-18 12:37 PMLike 5 - https://www.bnn.ca/video/benj-gallan...-picks~1373790
Benj Gallander's Past Picks
Benj Gallander, president of Contra The Heard Investment Letter, reviews his past picks: Wi-Lan (now Quaterhill); BlackBerry; and CDI (acquired by AE Industrial in September 2017).
1:33 - 3:1004-18-18 02:18 PMLike 4 - https://www.bnn.ca/video/benj-gallan...-picks~1373790
Benj Gallander's Past Picks
Benj Gallander, president of Contra The Heard Investment Letter, reviews his past picks: Wi-Lan (now Quaterhill); BlackBerry; and CDI (acquired by AE Industrial in September 2017).
1:33 - 3:10
Posted via CB1004-18-18 02:34 PMLike 6 -
- https://www.recode.net/2018/4/19/172...ode-transcript
Full transcript: BlackBerry CEO John Chen on Recode Decode04-19-18 07:15 AMLike 4
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