[Corbu]

BlackBerry's QNX, Baidu to collaborate, integrate on autonomous cars | ZDNet

BlackBerry selected to work with Baidu's Apollo program for driverless vehicles - Business - CBC News

[kellyweng88]

excellent start to the new year! Keep it going BB!

[world traveler and former ceo]

excellent start to the new year! Keep it going BB!

Indeed!! Now if we could only get sphs and PSDV going.....

Posted via CB10

[farmwersteve]

Indeed!! Now if we could only get sphs and PSDV going.....

Posted via CB10

Amen brotha
I missed the boat on pot stocks. I had Weed at $2.34 and dumped for a small profit to buy sphs a long time ago, so, sphs will hopefully right my ship on that one

Sphs, this may be it's year, I am looking at that one as very binary, either win big or lose it all, and I am happy with my hand I am holding.

Thanks to all the contributors here for a great year and a great one to come.

[spiller]

I just cashed out on my calls. Sold 1/3 too early this morning and 2/3 near HOD. +300%.

I wanted $15 SP by end of 2018 and I cashed out with time value getting me to 14.

I'm sure it will rip to 17 now... Or buy out rumours.... Or something. I still hold common stock so not completely out. I'll buy calls again if it dips after Nass. I'm afraid this one might be more of this is great news but no immediate revenue and the stock dwindles back down.... Seen it to many times. Happy with these gains even if i miss a boatload more.

Congrats gang. Let the comeback continue and let's see 17 by end of 2018!

[Corbu]

Investors jump in the passenger seat after Blackberry seals auto software deal with Baidu | Financial Post

BlackBerry Ltd. began 2018 with a bang after it announced a self-driving software deal with a Chinese internet search giant, boosting its stock to its highest level in nearly five years.

The Waterloo, Ont. software company will work with Baidu Inc. on technology to power autonomous vehicles, the companies said in a joint release Wednesday.

BlackBerry’s QNX operating system will become the foundation for the autonomous driving platform Baidu launched last spring. In a nod to the scale of the project, Baidu called the technology Apollo after the first lunar landing. It said it has already partnered with more than 70 top automotive manufacturers, suppliers and developers around the world.

The deal sent BlackBerry’s stock price up 12.85 per cent to $16.95 on the Toronto Stock Exchange, hitting levels it hasn’t seen since 2013. After three tough years and last year’s rebound, investors seem keen to jump in the passenger seat as CEO John Chen continues to morph the former smartphone maker into a software company.

Chen set his sights on the car industry as one of BlackBerry’s top future revenue opportunities. Last year, BlackBerry announced deals Delphi, Denso, Qualcomm, Visteon in the automotive space where its QNX technology is a frontrunner among developers racing to get self-driving cars on the road.

Automotive opportunities appeared to appeal to investors and analysts. BlackBerry’s stock spiked last spring when long-time analyst Gus Papageorgiou of Macquarie predicted BlackBerry’s stock price could rise to US$45 by 2020 helped by an expanded QNX offering. It jumped again weeks later when Ford Motor Co. announced improvements to its BlackBerry-powered in-car system.

The Baidu deal could lead to more opportunities in the growing Chinese auto market. It is a very material opportunity for technology companies that get well-positioned with automotive OEMs, CIBC Capital Markets analyst Todd Coupland said, adding that such self-driving features will be on all cars in the next few years.

“The opportunity is global, it’s for a very large market and I think it’s a very solid win for BlackBerry,” Coupland said.

Indeed, Baidu indicated the partnership could speed up the introduction of self-driving cars.

“We aim to provide automakers with a clear and fast path to fully autonomous vehicle production, with safety and security as top priorities,” Li Zhenya, general manager of the intelligent driving group, said in a statement.

“By integrating the BlackBerry QNX OS with the Apollo platform, we will enable carmakers to leap from prototype to production systems.”

For BlackBerry, the deal expands its product offerings for in-car systems. As it stands, BlackBerry’s QNX is the leader in infotainment systems, but company executives have pointed to additional revenue opportunities such as cloud services and advanced driver assistant systems.

Baidu, much like Google, started as a search company before branching into areas including artificial intelligence and self-driving. It’s worth about US$85 billion on the Nasdaq stock exchange.

[drobbie]

Blackberry is a trading stock and this time. There will likely be a pull back. Long term looking good.

[rarsen]

A Security article probably best to put in a file for later reading on one of those long winter evenings. Somewhat complex and different subject:

Security Breach and Spilled Secrets Have Shaken the N.S.A. to Its Core
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/12/u...w-brokers.html

[Andy_bb_king]

Folks, my head hurts with simple calculations.
Currently, QNX is in 60 million cars today per year for 3 dollar each roughly. That is 160 to 200 million annual revenue. With so many partnerships, it won't be hard to reach to 100 million cars in 3 to 5 years. And we know it is going to be 15 or 20 per car. That would be 1.5 to 2 billion in annual revenue. And those are crazy high margins. How many multiples should it be worth for Market Caps? This is just based on Auto industry alone. If you add Radar, UEM, BB device licensing, secure android license etc. Oh my?????!!!!!

Morgan, Can you share your math in your mind? Also, did anyone notice the Ascending Triangle Patten chart starting from about $7?

[bbjdog]

A Security article probably best to put in a file for later reading on one of those long winter evenings. Somewhat complex and different subject:

Security Breach and Spilled Secrets Have Shaken the N.S.A. to Its Core
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/12/u...w-brokers.html

Thanks Rarsen!


With holes like these (below) no wonder they know everything about a person.

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/0...u_design_flaw/

and

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...processor-flaw

[Corbu]

https://which-50.com/blackberry-baid...r-partnership/
Blackberry And Baidu Confirm Self-Driving Car Partnership

As you will recall, we first heard of that Baidu collaboration a few weeks ago through her, Tess Bennett.

[dusdal]

Folks, my head hurts with simple calculations.
Currently, QNX is in 60 million cars today per year for 3 dollar each roughly. That is 160 to 200 million annual revenue. With so many partnerships, it won't be hard to reach to 100 million cars in 3 to 5 years. And we know it is going to be 15 or 20 per car. That would be 1.5 to 2 billion in annual revenue. And those are crazy high margins. How many multiples should it be worth for Market Caps? This is just based on Auto industry alone. If you add Radar, UEM, BB device licensing, secure android license etc. Oh my?????!!!!!

Morgan, Can you share your math in your mind? Also, did anyone notice the Ascending Triangle Patten chart starting from about $7?

I think last time I checked in on Nvidia, they were about 14x revs, with lower gross margin. Though they have a couple years of pretty significant growth under their belt.

[Corbu]

On the subject of the potential number of cars out there, this:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/car-sal...ime-1514920642
Car Sales to Top 90 Million Globally for First Time

[Corbu]

JC on Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-car-software

[Corbu]

More news:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...0104005360/en/
Molex Collaborates with BlackBerry on an Automotive Network for Secure and Intelligent Vehicles

LISLE, Ill.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Molex announced today it has teamed up with BlackBerry Limited (NYSE: BB; TSX: BB) on the development of a 10 Gbps Ethernet Automotive Networking platform designed to increase data bandwidth in intelligent connected vehicles. Integrating very reliable high-speed data transmission, prioritization, scalability, and BlackBerry’s advanced embedded security solutions, the new Molex network platform will be officially unveiled at the 2018 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas.

“Secure high-bandwidth Ethernet represents the future of in-vehicle and V2X connectivity,” said Eric Scott, advanced technology manager and lead architect, Molex. “The industry-leading 10 Gbps Ethernet Automotive Network supports secure and reliable data transmission between multiple hardware and embedded software systems enabling end-to-end data integration and data prioritization for intelligent vehicles.”

Based on a future-ready, automotive-grade high-speed gateway, the powerful 10 Gbps Ethernet platform supports legacy and evolving media modules, peripherals, and other embedded software systems. This comprehensive platform leverages the following BlackBerry technologies:

• BlackBerry QNX Neutrino SDP 7.0 RTOS, which provides high performance and enhanced kernel-level security through an array of features including microkernel architecture, file encryption, adaptive time partitioning, a high-availability framework, anomaly detection, and multi-level policy-based access control.
• BlackBerry Certicom's Managed PKI (Public Key Infrastructure) Service, to securely provision, authenticate, and communicate between modules and other vehicle ECUs and peripheral devices connected to the network. In-vehicle connections can be made via Ethernet IP-based devices or LIN, CAN, USB, and other supported legacy communication protocols. As part of the PKI, BlackBerry Certicom is providing an efficient and powerful Elliptic-Curve Cryptography (ECC) solution that can also be extended to communications between the vehicle systems and the cloud.

“Molex and BlackBerry believe that robust and secure high-speed Ethernet will become the fundamental automotive networking technology as we approach and enter the autonomous era,” said Jim Alfred, vice president and GM of BlackBerry Certicom. “BlackBerry’s embedded security solutions will ensure the growing amount of data collected and used in a car is trusted and secure.”

The Molex 10 Gbps Ethernet Automotive Network features secure over-the-air software and firmware updates and diagnostics over IP (DoIP) to help avoid the need for vehicle recalls and enabling in-vehicle security and diagnostics over IP. Compatibility with existing network components provides OEMs the design flexibility to accommodate different vehicle communication architectures and integrate evolving new technologies.

The Molex 10 Gbps Ethernet Automotive Network can be previewed at http://www.connector.com/electronic-...ected-mobility.

About Molex:

Molex brings together innovation and technology to deliver electronic solutions to customers worldwide. With a presence in more than 40 countries, Molex offers a full suite of solutions and services for many markets, including data communications, consumer electronics, industrial, medical, automotive and commercial vehicle. www.molex.com

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molex

[kellyweng88]

excellent movement already this morning. Is this from the Molex news or just continued momentum from yesterday?

edit: oops nvm! haha

[morganplus8]

Folks, my head hurts with simple calculations.
Currently, QNX is in 60 million cars today per year for 3 dollar each roughly. That is 160 to 200 million annual revenue. With so many partnerships, it won't be hard to reach to 100 million cars in 3 to 5 years. And we know it is going to be 15 or 20 per car. That would be 1.5 to 2 billion in annual revenue. And those are crazy high margins. How many multiples should it be worth for Market Caps? This is just based on Auto industry alone. If you add Radar, UEM, BB device licensing, secure android license etc. Oh my?????!!!!!

Morgan, Can you share your math in your mind? Also, did anyone notice the Ascending Triangle Patten chart starting from about $7?

Hi Andy,

I think you need to pull back on those numbers, their Fiscal 2018 QNX revenue is expected to exit around $ 138 MM against that never-ending/changing total of 60 MM cars. Well, maybe, those numbers are so sketchy we really don't know how to break that down at this time do we? Let's suppose it works out to less than $ 3 per car. They also have just over 50% of that market with competition coming so it might not be that easy to hit your production numbers in 3 - 5 years. I would be happy if the revenues approached half your forecast there. But, as you pointed out, our current $ 950 MM revenues in F2018 could be getting quite the boost over the next three years due to the reasons you mentioned, so that's the good news.

What's it all worth? We keep getting fantastic news from partnerships but none of them translate into revenues yet. We are at a market cap of $ 7.7 B, there is no chance of buying back those bonds at these prices so we can expect 60 MM shares to dilute the stock at a time when revenues are set to take off. That's a big hit but it helps us calculate what is a fair stock price for BB today. We are currently trading at a $ 7.7 B cap, with 580 MM in shares and $ 2.5 B in cash, you can subtract that cash to get our stock value. Now, divide $ 950 MM (rev) into $ 5.2 B valuation (less cash) and we trade at about 5.5 times revenues and basically no EPS. Analysts will go so far as to place us at level of maturity as that of MOBL so they want us to be in the 3.2 times area, not 5.5 as we are today. The only other metric that is used is EPS and we don't have earnings to speak of right now so we'll lose that argument too.

Today, we have a stock price of $ 13.25/shr (was much higher) and no analyst can justify that valuation in the near-term. For this reason, I sold out of BB today to wait for what will likely be a cheaper entry point ahead.

Here is your chart:



You can see the rising pattern, the green arrows show you milestones like the QCOM settlement, Chen downplaying the next quarter in June, great numbers and partnership news etc.. I see us following the pattern of an over-bought high, a retest of that pennant formation and a rally that is slower while tracking Q results and news going forward. It is difficult for me to see us going much higher until we start to see superior revenues coming in. We are holding up extremely well so far today and it would be reassuring to hear from someone that "we believe" understands BB and where it is going, this would help support the current price of the stock.

In short, I see us dropping back into the $ 12.00 area,there is the additional risk that the general market will not rally forever .... although this is the best time of the year for a positive market; we'll test support and move higher albeit more slowly from here.

[morganplus8]

I forgot to make it clear in my post above that yesterday I mentioned that we would see RSI over-bought, and, we would lay way outside the BB bands. Today, we hit an RSI=80 and the bands haven't caught up to the current stock price yet so I thought (I made this decision late last night) that I would dump the stock on a pop this morning and wait to re-enter at a better price level. I'm simply using the same TA for a trade that I use to give advice to others. The stock, at $ 14.00/shr met all of my expectations for months to come so why not trade it here? Time will tell.

[muhlan]

Hi Andy,

I think you need to pull back on those numbers, their Fiscal 2018 QNX revenue is expected to exit around $ 138 MM against that never-ending/changing total of 60 MM cars. Well, maybe, those numbers are so sketchy we really don't know how to break that down at this time do we? Let's suppose it works out to less than $ 3 per car. They also have just over 50% of that market with competition coming so it might not be that easy to hit your production numbers in 3 - 5 years. I would be happy if the revenues approached half your forecast there. But, as you pointed out, our current $ 950 MM revenues in F2018 could be getting quite the boost over the next three years due to the reasons you mentioned, so that's the good news.

What's it all worth? We keep getting fantastic news from partnerships but none of them translate into revenues yet. We are at a market cap of $ 7.7 B, there is no chance of buying back those bonds at these prices so we can expect 60 MM shares to dilute the stock at a time when revenues are set to take off. That's a big hit but it helps us calculate what is a fair stock price for BB today. We are currently trading at a $ 7.7 B cap, with 580 MM in shares and $ 2.5 B in cash, you can subtract that cash to get our stock value. Now, divide $ 950 MM (rev) into $ 5.2 B valuation (less cash) and we trade at about 5.5 times revenues and basically no EPS. Analysts will go so far as to place us at level of maturity as that of MOBL so they want us to be in the 3.2 times area, not 5.5 as we are today. The only other metric that is used is EPS and we don't have earnings to speak of right now so we'll lose that argument too.

Today, we have a stock price of $ 13.25/shr (was much higher) and no analyst can justify that valuation in the near-term. For this reason, I sold out of BB today to wait for what will likely be a cheaper entry point ahead.

Here is your chart:



You can see the rising pattern, the green arrows show you milestones like the QCOM settlement, Chen downplaying the next quarter in June, great numbers and partnership news etc.. I see us following the pattern of an over-bought high, a retest of that pennant formation and a rally that is slower while tracking Q results and news going forward. It is difficult for me to see us going much higher until we start to see superior revenues coming in. We are holding up extremely well so far today and it would be reassuring to hear from someone that "we believe" understands BB and where it is going, this would help support the current price of the stock.

In short, I see us dropping back into the $ 12.00 area,there is the additional risk that the general market will not rally forever .... although this is the best time of the year for a positive market; we'll test support and move higher albeit more slowly from here.

Why use the MOBL P/S ratio? The ratio of Mobileeye as it was Sold to INTC (15x revenues) could also be valid and then we are talking about a 30$+ target price per share

[kellyweng88]

I forgot to make it clear in my post above that yesterday I mentioned that we would see RSI over-bought, and, we would lay way outside the BB bands. Today, we hit an RSI=80 and the bands haven't caught up to the current stock price yet so I thought (I made this decision late last night) that I would dump the stock on a pop this morning and wait to re-enter at a better price level. I'm simply using the same TA for a trade that I use to give advice to others. The stock, at $ 14.00/shr met all of my expectations for months to come so why not trade it here? Time will tell.

so in your opinion what is a fair estimate for the stock today? I know previously you believed $10.50 to be a fair price. Has this changed for you?

[morganplus8]

Why use the MOBL P/S ratio? The ratio of Mobileeye as it was Sold to INTC (15x revenues) could also be valid and then we are talking about a 30$+ target price per share

First off, I'm going to assume that you are serious here:

Even though QNX and MBLY are quite possibly found in the same vehicle, they have nothing else in common. MBLY has rapidly growing, profitable numbers and QNX is years away from that. This is like saying that Whole Foods stock should be up 1500% because they sell consumables and so does the Weed industry.

Let's assume for now that QNX has the same metrics as MBLY, that 15x revenues would place it at a valuation on a buyout of $ 2 B bucks. If anyone thought that QNX was worth that much, they would snap it up from John Chen ASAP. No one has offered even a fraction of that amount. My best guess is that QNX is worth about $ 500 MM, but using the $ 2 B figure, that's WAY less than $ 3.00/shr to BlackBerry. You can't get to $ 30.00 a share looking at QNX.

Unfortunately, QNX is a long way off from a buyout valuation like 15x, more like 4x for now so we need to see other sectors do well here. MOBL is claiming cash-flow positive and BB is cash-flow positive. If we can prove that we are taking business away from MOBL, by showing superior results versus them, then analysts would unhitch us from MOBL and look for better multiples in all sectors. We need more time and some proof that we are doing things better in order to garner higher valuations.

Jeff Sessions just came out with a statement that he wants to role back Obama's legalization of pot in the US. If that happens, you will want to own Whole Foods over Weed stocks all day here. High valuations come at high risk, we want growth because we are the Amazon of the auto business not because we are the flavour of the month.

[morganplus8]

so in your opinion what is a fair estimate for the stock today? I know previously you believed $10.50 to be a fair price. Has this changed for you?

So I sold out as we approached $ 14.00/shr today because I have no argument for thinking it could go higher at this time. In fact, I think that price is excellent today but cheap at the end of 2018. The reason I say this is because $ 14.00 is a 12-month target not a current valuation of the company. By then, we are much closer to QNX and Radar prospects; all the things that Chen has told us we'll start to receive revenues from. Funds buy into growth, usually in advance and hold until the numbers hit. I think the short position will drop, Fund ownership has gone up, and the stock will be less volatile going forward. I think that the stock is worth closer to $ 12.00, say, $ 11.80/shr now, that we can drop that far and still hit 4 year highs again this year. I also believe that BB is more of a buyout target than ever before in its existence. Chen likes $ 20.00/shr, Watsa would make a bundle on that amount as would Chen and so I think they are close to that point now where it works. BlackBerry has the assets that companies want and in one year, they are going to be valuable to many other players. You can offer $ 20.00 plus next year, back out the cash and break up the assets and do very well. We have that to think about now. For these reasons I think the stock has limited downside and more Fund money moving into it today.

[curves2000]

It's starting to look like a lot of the pieces are coming together for the shareholders and for John Chen. I believe when he was hired back in November 2013 he was given long term options for 5 years and perhaps a 5 year contract so that would put us at the end of the year.

Hopefully the enterprise billings continue to grow, the licensing and patent revenue continues to grow to try and offset the decline in hardware revenue which is almost zero. The SAF revenue is going down at 25% a quarter as well but a lot of the growth revenue is expected to start happening within the next 12-24 months once some of the design wins for the QNX division and some of the BlackBerry Radar revenue from management makes its way to the top line. On the most recent call John Chen made a point to say that the sale of the $400 or $500 Radar devices wasn't going to be very material to start but he was looking forward to the re occurring revenue.

As a long time suffering shareholder from 2011 I am looking forward to the future. Now that there is light at the end of the tunnel I really hope that the growth prospects will drive this stock past the $20 mark and we can continue to grow as momentum drives the stock as BlackBerry tries to become a leader again.

Best of luck to all

Posted via CB10

[muhlan]

First off, I'm going to assume that you are serious here:

Even though QNX and MBLY are quite possibly found in the same vehicle, they have nothing else in common. MBLY has rapidly growing, profitable numbers and QNX is years away from that. This is like saying that Whole Foods stock should be up 1500% because they sell consumables and so does the Weed industry.

Let's assume for now that QNX has the same metrics as MBLY, that 15x revenues would place it at a valuation on a buyout of $ 2 B bucks. If anyone thought that QNX was worth that much, they would snap it up from John Chen ASAP. No one has offered even a fraction of that amount. My best guess is that QNX is worth about $ 500 MM, but using the $ 2 B figure, that's WAY less than $ 3.00/shr to BlackBerry. You can't get to $ 30.00 a share looking at QNX.

Unfortunately, QNX is a long way off from a buyout valuation like 15x, more like 4x for now so we need to see other sectors do well here. MOBL is claiming cash-flow positive and BB is cash-flow positive. If we can prove that we are taking business away from MOBL, by showing superior results versus them, then analysts would unhitch us from MOBL and look for better multiples in all sectors. We need more time and some proof that we are doing things better in order to garner higher valuations.

Jeff Sessions just came out with a statement that he wants to role back Obama's legalization of pot in the US. If that happens, you will want to own Whole Foods over Weed stocks all day here. High valuations come at high risk, we want growth because we are the Amazon of the auto business not because we are the flavour of the month.

Why use ratios of MOBL to value BB? MOBL is a pure EMM play while BlackBerry is much more. To value QNX the status quo is not so important, what QNX could become does matter much more. Since the prospects so far look very good, but are far from certain I think you could calculate a broad range of possible valuations for QNX.

[JonCBK]

Well I haven't been too active on this thread in a long time. But was looking at my long term buy and hold of BBRY stock. Bought in at various price points over the last five years or so, but barely watching it these days. Just holding. Anyway, I am happy to report that I am overall in the "green" for the first time in a long time. I see that Morgan has sold out out. Maybe I should as well. But I'm not really much of a trader. And I've got no particularly use for the money if I do sell or particularly interesting investment ideas lined up. So I guess I will just hold on. But wow after years in the "red" it is "easy to be green".

Rocking a KeyOne as well. Had to glue on a key though. That never happened to any of my old blackberries. But at least the fix was easy since I didn't lose the key that popped out.

Good luck to everyone.