View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

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  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. muhlan001's Avatar
    I just watched a test video of the new Entune 3.0 from Toyota based on AGL:

    After watching the video I am curious what advantage AGL has over QNX besides saying some chump change for license fees? I mean the system in the test seems to be very laggy since it take nearly a second to respond to a command like switching applications.
    08-16-17 01:35 AM
  2. FeitaInc's Avatar
    After watching the video I am curious what advantage AGL has over QNX besides saying some chump change for license fees? I mean the system in the test seems to be very laggy since it take nearly a second to respond to a command like switching applications.
    Thanks for sharing.

    I have been thinking about buying a new car. My brother has a Toyota Land Cruiser, which I like very much. More or less the only thing I don't like is the infotainment. If anything, Entune 3.0 seems to be a step in the wrong direction.

    I guess the overall advantage og AGL is that it isn't proprietary, and as such the offering of modules should be better and cheaper (as they are commodities). And since Toyota probably has to do a lot of the heavy lifting themselves (writing code, drivers etc.), it will serve as a differentiator over the competition. That's as opposed to licensing a package from BB that anybody can license.

    That's the theory at least. If Entune 3.0 is anything to go buy at this stage, it seems like theory and practice are two different things.

    I think I remember JC made a comment to the effect that for it to make sense for a car company to go with QNX over AGL, they normally chose the former because they bought into the BB stack. (Aka OTA etc.)
    Last edited by FeitaInc; 08-16-17 at 05:01 AM.
    08-16-17 03:32 AM
  3. Seadog83's Avatar
    I'm extremely skeptical of these China numbers. I like they are taking customer sign ups and offering a contest as enticement. But it is a funnel. Some number of those people will actually buy the phone at the end of the day. We have no way of knowing how many yet.

    These things have a way of taking on a life of their own with people counting millions of chickens and then being severely disappointed in the end. Let's see how many actual sales BB mobile is making and see how much rev that brings back to BBRY and then forecast from there.

    This BB Mobile deal may only add pennies to the value of a BBRY share. Or it may add $0.50 or more. Who knows right now?
    This is my sentiment exactly. These numbers to me are nothing more than "bait" to get people believing somehow we're closer to a big score when we aren't, which sad to say BBRY is notoriously guilty of. Is "100k+ (signups for?) presales!" any different than "Phones sold out at retailers!* (*1 phone per store)" "We expect to have 70%+ margins!* (*on revenues close to 0)" "QNX in 60m cars!* (*at a low per car price which we won't tell you, and declining)".

    If you want 100% margins, lets just transition BB to a company that looks from dropped money on the ground.

    In every instance, they give you something that sounds nice, but is missing some key component in the bridge to sustainable, scalable, profitability. Are these actual sales? Or just people signing up for a contest with no actual skin in the game. And we don't even know how much per phone BB gets.

    Sadly with this company, they seem to overplay every scrap of good news they have and bleat it from the rafters to anyone who will listen, so the fact that this isn't happening tell me this random number of some random Chinese website doesn't mean a whole lot.

    Part of me is just venting and more frustrated than ever with this stock. I find it hard to believe that if you strip out the QCOM cash, we're actually below where we were After the March report. All the good news there, all the upgrades, all the improved numbers the market assigns nothing to.
    08-16-17 08:03 AM
  4. muhlan001's Avatar
    This is my sentiment exactly. These numbers to me are nothing more than "bait" to get people believing somehow we're closer to a big score when we aren't, which sad to say BBRY is notoriously guilty of. Is "100k+ (signups for?) presales!" any different than "Phones sold out at retailers!* (*1 phone per store)" "We expect to have 70%+ margins!* (*on revenues close to 0)" "QNX in 60m cars!* (*at a low per car price which we won't tell you, and declining)".

    If you want 100% margins, lets just transition BB to a company that looks from dropped money on the ground.

    In every instance, they give you something that sounds nice, but is missing some key component in the bridge to sustainable, scalable, profitability. Are these actual sales? Or just people signing up for a contest with no actual skin in the game. And we don't even know how much per phone BB gets.

    Sadly with this company, they seem to overplay every scrap of good news they have and bleat it from the rafters to anyone who will listen, so the fact that this isn't happening tell me this random number of some random Chinese website doesn't mean a whole lot.

    Part of me is just venting and more frustrated than ever with this stock. I find it hard to believe that if you strip out the QCOM cash, we're actually below where we were After the March report. All the good news there, all the upgrades, all the improved numbers the market assigns nothing to.
    Well written, I agree 100%.

    Now wait for the usual "you can sell the stock" posters that still do not get that as a shareholder you have the right that the company you (part-)own is being well lead by its management. And part of that is an open and honest communication with stakeholders.
    _dimi_ and elfabio80 like this.
    08-16-17 08:17 AM
  5. early2bed's Avatar
    Sadly with this company, they seem to overplay every scrap of good news
    LOL. Are you referring to what the company says or what is on this thread? Most public companies are pretty careful about what they say in this regard because any significant downturn in the stock results in an automatic shareholder lawsuit claiming some kind of misrepresentation. If BlackBerry says that they have a contract with FedEx, someone here calculates how much it would be if the technology was installed in every truck.
    dusdal and alludba like this.
    08-16-17 08:58 AM
  6. TheBirdDog's Avatar
    LOL. Are you referring to what the company says or what is on this thread? Most public companies are pretty careful about what they say in this regard because any significant downturn in the stock results in an automatic shareholder lawsuit claiming some kind of misrepresentation. If BlackBerry says that they have a contract with FedEx, someone here calculates how much it would be if the technology was installed in every truck.
    Can't agree more there. BlackBerry has been extremely quiet these days. Any 'news' about pre-order excitement in China or speculations of that sort are from members here.

    I'm actually perplexed as to why BlackBerry hasn't released any information about their licensing deal with TCL and how it translates into profits but maybe they don't actually have much hope for it to do so anyway. I'm sure that their Android development team costs them a pretty penny so perhaps their biggest hope is that their licensing helps them to break-even. It would at least give us some numbers to run with. Are they getting $0.50 per unit or $20.00?

    As much as I *hope* that the licensed hardware starts bringing in a revenue from hardware again, BlackBerry *seems* relatively vague on what sort of value this will bring to the company.

    The point to remember though, there is a lot of speculation around here BECAUSE there is not much official news / updates from the company.
    08-16-17 09:15 AM
  7. Seadog83's Avatar
    LOL. Are you referring to what the company says or what is on this thread? Most public companies are pretty careful about what they say in this regard because any significant downturn in the stock results in an automatic shareholder lawsuit claiming some kind of misrepresentation. If BlackBerry says that they have a contract with FedEx, someone here calculates how much it would be if the technology was installed in every truck.
    A mixture of both frankly. On one hand you get BB making a press release over every 3rd tier church in Peru which has adopted one of it's products, and intentionally(?) obtuse reporting which is a mix of GAP/Non-GAAP depending on the day/time/line item they're talking about. Then you have cheerleaders here as App_Developer pointed out keen on not only counting chickens before they've hatched, but using that as a concrete floor since "there's probably stuff on top we don't know about!" and assuming multiple unknowns are the best they could possibly be. When the reality is the only surprises we've gotten in the last 6 years have been bad ones. Acting in such a manner merely set ourselves up for disappointments.

    I guess that's where the crux of my frustrations lay. Since earnings, there has been absolutely no news. Yet a pernicious rot has taken over the stock, eroding 15% for no particular reason. If you listen to reports, they're doing great! Lots of contracts being signed, lots of phones being sold, lots of potential. People here have been more than patient. Extended every benefit of every doubt, yet in the last few weeks I've stumbled back underwater after I (foolishly) thought the stock finally got it's **** together, and adding insult to injury is that the markets as a whole are at all time highs.

    Like I said, I'm just venting and frustrated. I do think there is value here, I am certainly going to hold for a while longer, but approaching 6 years of dead money with this stock, your patience gets sorely tried.
    muhlan001 and dalinxz like this.
    08-16-17 09:24 AM
  8. muhlan001's Avatar
    A mixture of both frankly. On one hand you get BB making a press release over every 3rd tier church in Peru which has adopted one of it's products, and intentionally(?) obtuse reporting which is a mix of GAP/Non-GAAP depending on the day/time/line item they're talking about. Then you have cheerleaders here as App_Developer pointed out keen on not only counting chickens before they've hatched, but using that as a concrete floor since "there's probably stuff on top we don't know about!" and assuming multiple unknowns are the best they could possibly be. When the reality is the only surprises we've gotten in the last 6 years have been bad ones. Acting in such a manner merely set ourselves up for disappointments.

    I guess that's where the crux of my frustrations lay. Since earnings, there has been absolutely no news. Yet a pernicious rot has taken over the stock, eroding 15% for no particular reason. If you listen to reports, they're doing great! Lots of contracts being signed, lots of phones being sold, lots of potential. People here have been more than patient. Extended every benefit of every doubt, yet in the last few weeks I've stumbled back underwater after I (foolishly) thought the stock finally got it's **** together, and adding insult to injury is that the markets as a whole are at all time highs.

    Like I said, I'm just venting and frustrated. I do think there is value here, I am certainly going to hold for a while longer, but approaching 6 years of dead money with this stock, your patience gets sorely tried.
    Exactly. John Chen and his management team shall know that they are managing a public company and not a private entity so transparency with its stakeholders is mandatory and would benefit the shareprice.

    Nobody can honestly tell me that
    - information about the future plans for BBM consumer
    - development of revenues from BBM consumer
    - adoption rate of BBM SDK by developers
    - QNX advantages over systems from Wind River and other competitors
    - expected revenues from BlackBerry Radar and Radar Lite
    to just name a few, could be specified as sensitive information whose publication would harm the company.

    Elon Musk shows how you talk about the prospects of a company and how to generate excitement among investors and it works definetively by sandbagging or omitting information during conference calls and earnings releases.
    08-16-17 10:44 AM
  9. W Hoa's Avatar
    BlackBerry is a frustrating investment, no doubt about it. I've been following the turn around story and see, finally, some light at the end of the tunnel.

    BBRY has been one of the most heavily shorted stocks on both NASDAQ and TSX over the last five years.This has only changed within the last few months to the point where short numbers have back tracked to 2012 levels. I take this as a positive.

    BBRY revenues have been in a steep decline for the last 5 years due to the uncoupling of BlackBerry devices from the mandatory SAF. This uncoupling happened with the advent of BB10 devices. This revenue decline should hit bottom in the next two-three quarters. I take this as a positive.

    Device production by BlackBerry has ended. BlackBerry was showing revenue but losing money on these devices. Production ended, inventory sold off. This being almost completed is also a positive.

    In my humble opinion, BlackBerry has shed the skin of the old BlackBerry and is on the cusp of a completely new enterprise.

    I'm giving it a few more quarters to find out. Cheers
    Last edited by W Hoa; 08-16-17 at 12:19 PM.
    08-16-17 11:59 AM
  10. muhlan001's Avatar
    BlackBerry is a frustrating investment, no doubt about it. I've been following the turn around story and see, finally, some light at the end of the tunnel.

    BBRY has been one of the most heavily shorted stocks on both NASDAQ and TSX over the last five years.This has only changed within the last few months to the point where short numbers have back tracked to 2012 levels. I take this as a positive.

    BBRY revenues have been in a steep decline for the last 5 years due to the uncoupling of BlackBerry devices from the mandatory SAF. This uncoupling happened with the advent of BB10 devices. This revenue decline should hit bottom in the next two-three quarters. I take this as a positive.

    Device production by BlackBerry has ended. BlackBerry was showing revenue but losing money on these devices. Production ended, inventory sold off. This being almost completed is also a positive.

    In my humble opinion, BlackBerry has shed the skin of the old BlackBerry and is on the cusp of a completely new enterprise.

    I'm giving it a few more quarters to find out. Cheers
    Problem with revenues is that John Chen promised some time ago that $500 million per Q would be the bottom and that turned out to be not so true

    Posted via CB10
    08-16-17 01:30 PM
  11. W Hoa's Avatar
    Problem with revenues is that John Chen promised some time ago that $500 million per Q would be the bottom and that turned out to be not so true
    When/where did he say that?
    08-16-17 01:33 PM
  12. Corbu's Avatar
    08-16-17 01:42 PM
  13. Corbu's Avatar


    Alex Thurber‏ @Alex_Thurber
    Leaving @zrh_airport after meetings with an exciting @blackberry strategic partner. What a beautiful city. #mostsecurephone
    8:10 AM - 16 Aug 2017
    08-16-17 01:49 PM
  14. W Hoa's Avatar
    Wouldn't Radar be a nice fit, here?
    Ford unveils its new electric truck made with DHL
    There is a tie-in with DHL using Vuzix glasses which are powered by BlackBerry UEM. Not to mention BlackBerry's Tier 1 relationship with Ford. It's all coming together.
    08-16-17 01:53 PM
  15. muhlan001's Avatar
    When/where did he say that?
    He said that during a Q&A session, but I was so far not able to find the transcript. For the beginning take his quote "Chen also said the company expects its revenue to stabilize over the coming year." (https://www.recode.net/2015/3/2/1155...ad-of-schedule) since we are light years away from a stabilization not to mention from the revenue levels of 2015

    Posted via CB10
    08-16-17 01:57 PM
  16. W Hoa's Avatar
    "Chen also said the company expects its revenue to stabilize over the coming year."
    Citing this article puts your comment into an interesting context. Chen said he expected revenue to stabilize at a time when they were still introducing new phones and BlackBerry generated three-quarters of its revenue from hardware. Hardware is now gone....so is 75% of BlackBerry's revenue. Getting rid of device development and manufacturing has definitely stabilized revenue. Killing off the SAF will complete the picture. And then we can move on.
    08-16-17 02:14 PM
  17. La Emperor's Avatar
    Problem with revenues is that John Chen promised some time ago that $500 million per Q would be the bottom and that turned out to be not so true

    Posted via CB10
    Your link says per year, not per Q as you claim.
    " Chen has set a goal of generating $500 million in software revenue this year. "
    W Hoa, Corbu, kadakn01 and 3 others like this.
    08-16-17 02:31 PM
  18. early2bed's Avatar
    This thread is probably not the place to get diverse opinions on this stock since negative opinions and their purveyors are generally not well received. Here goes nothing, though...

    This company crucially lacks a dominant core technology. It was smartphones and enterprise communication but not anymore. It is not a clear industry leader in any segment. It faces competition in every segment from some of the largest tech companies. The stock price is also hampered by a low likelihood that it will be acquired by any one of the bigger tech companies. A Canadian self-driving car company? Canadian companies don't even build cars. Most of its initiatives sound like technology in search of an application. If the next big thing is to spend the cash to buy a revenue stream then I'm not sure what the point is unless you can aggressively exploit it using your existing successful products to your existing numerous customers. Any small company out there with potentially home-run technology would be in much better hands at Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, etc. so you have to wonder what is really left and if John Chen is the kind CEO that recognizes that kind of thing after it's been passed over five times. You know, the guy who was pretty sure that he could make a profit in smartphones but didn't realize how much his customers needed apps.
    Last edited by early2bed; 08-16-17 at 03:02 PM.
    muhlan001 likes this.
    08-16-17 02:50 PM
  19. app_Developer's Avatar
    Then you have cheerleaders here as App_Developer pointed out keen on not only counting chickens before they've hatched, but using that as a concrete floor since "there's probably stuff on top we don't know about!" and assuming multiple unknowns are the best they could possibly be. When the reality is the only surprises we've gotten in the last 6 years have been bad ones. Acting in such a manner merely set ourselves up for disappointments.
    .
    If the company won't provide proper guidance, then of course people will speculate and that speculation becomes the only thing we can discuss.

    So let's hope for better information from BlackBerry. Otherwise, the millions of other investors who don't give a you know what whether BBRY makes it or not are going to wait on the sidelines until some of these dreams become more real. That's totally understandable.
    La Emperor, Corbu, rarsen and 4 others like this.
    08-16-17 03:01 PM
  20. world traveler and former ceo's Avatar
    This thread is probably not the place to get diverse opinions on this stock since negative opinions and their purveyors are generally not well received. Here goes nothing, though...

    This company crucially lacks a dominant core technology. It was smartphones and enterprise communication but not anymore. It is not a clear industry leader in any segment. It faces competition in every segment from some of the largest tech companies. The stock price is also hampered by a low likelihood that it will be acquired by any one of the bigger tech companies. A Canadian self-driving car company? Canadian companies don't even build cars. Most of its initiatives sound like technology in search of an application. If the next big thing is to spend the cash to buy a revenue stream then I'm not sure what the point is unless you can aggressively exploit it using your existing successful products to your existing numerous customers. Any small company out there with potentially home-run technology would be in much better hands at Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, etc. so you have to wonder what is really left and if John Chen is the kind CEO that recognizes that kind of thing after it's been passed over five times. You know, the guy who was pretty sure that he could make a profit in smartphones but didn't realize how much his customers needed apps.
    It's too early still to see... I Think we need to get past two more quarters... then with the SAF behind us, we will see whether mobile licensing revenues are on the upswing, in significant numbers, as well as Radar, and QNX initiatives... we will also (hopefully) realize some IP wins, and new investment or partnership announcements, which will propel revenues upwards...

    ... it may be early 2018... when "the corner is finally turned" and the SP makes strong moves upwards, IMO

    Posted via CB10
    La Emperor, W Hoa, Corbu and 4 others like this.
    08-16-17 03:10 PM
  21. W Hoa's Avatar
    This thread is probably not the place to get diverse opinions on this stock since negative opinions and their purveyors are generally not well received. Here goes nothing, though..
    This is probably not the time to say it but.....I prefer not to make my investment choices based on opinions. I don't care what you or anyone else 'thinks' of BlackBerry or John Chen. What I come here for is information. Pure and simple. There are some outstanding people here with very worthwhile sources and information. That's what makes this a great thread. Most everything else is dross.
    08-16-17 03:16 PM
  22. Corbu's Avatar
    08-16-17 04:15 PM
  23. DaSchwantz's Avatar
    He said that during a Q&A session, but I was so far not able to find the transcript. For the beginning take his quote "Chen also said the company expects its revenue to stabilize over the coming year." (https://www.recode.net/2015/3/2/1155...ad-of-schedule) since we are light years away from a stabilization not to mention from the revenue levels of 2015

    Posted via CB10
    That's hardly a reference to $2B /year software revenue. Please source or retract. False info not welcome.
    bbjdog likes this.
    08-16-17 08:13 PM
  24. Chuck Finley69's Avatar
    Well written, I agree 100%.

    Now wait for the usual "you can sell the stock" posters that still do not get that as a shareholder you have the right that the company you (part-)own is being well lead by its management. And part of that is an open and honest communication with stakeholders.
    The fact is you don't have a right to good management, just a desire and when you do not get it, you and other shareholders punish the company by dumping the stock. Also, communication is controlled for multiple reasons with all publicly traded companies...
    bbjdog likes this.
    08-16-17 08:28 PM
  25. kadakn01's Avatar
    Some closing thoughts on the Holdings for the 2nd quarter, as well as my personal opinion FWIW.

    The overall institutional holders increased by a net 5M shares while the new positions was quite extensive and included quite a few 1st time shareholders (54 vs. 33 that sold out ), as well as the amount of shares purchased by new shareholders was quite a large spread, with over 18M bought vs. 1.6M sold, and the largest shareholder who sold out was 400K, vs, an the top 10 new holders were all over that amount and the largest 2 were each over 3M shares, a good sign as the breadth of the base is more diverse.

    As I had said in previous posts, the short interest as well as options (put and calls) has declined to the lowest levels in over 5 years. However, the majority of the funds that are short, will cover over many quarters as they are long a number of securities as well as short those they believe will under perform, based on metrics, such as revenue growth, etc. They are not looking at the day to day share price and making decisions on technicals, etc. Some are short a basket of securities and long a index, etc.


    One thought along these lines, when the share price was going up based on a potential hit with the Z10, quite a few of us (myself included) thought we were set and RIMM (at the time) was going to explode and it did, to $18, before crashing down and needing life support in the way of a convert deal as a cash infusion as the go private failed to get the necessary funding. All that time, when it was gong up from about $6 to $18, the short interest kept increasing, and it even was high when the stock sold off. Many bears kept saying the company was in trouble, and I for one choose to ignore the warnings, and super high short interest which at one point was almost 100% of the float (180M+ shares vs. a float of about 200M) i kept holding hope that the shorts were wrong, even when I suspected they may be right, as the company had about 6B in contractual obligations.

    The interesting thing today, is the share price also retraced from $11.70 to about $8.8 where we sit today, but the difference is the shorts have covered and continue to do so.
    Why? Well for one the risk of the company defaulting is virtually zero, as they have no real debt, and have enough cash to essentially be in business for a long time even if the economy were to crater, as well as a conservative CEO that has kept a large cash hoard to satisfy concerns of some clients wary of BBRY surviving and to take advantage of acquisitions. Second, they are starting, albeit slowly, to grow again and have a potential high margin business. The issue, unlike with tesla, the shareholders will give the benefit of the doubt to them as they Believe in the business model, even though many entrants are competing with electric cars. the model 3 wont even be out until the end of next year and their is no assurance they can even build enough, nor will the demand be enough long term. Regardless, none of this credit is bestowed to BBRY, and rightfully so, as they have yet to really execute their strategy.
    However, we know one thing for certain, the stock in a worst case scenario that one can envision (if not sure, look no further than the Merrill Lynch tgt price of $7.50, btw was upped from $6.00 after the QCOM deal, adding only the cash they got, or the Goldman at $8.50, likely a more realistic downside. For that, you have about the largest Margin Of Safety in the companies history, coupled with the lowest probability they can be a super growth company as well . There in-lies the irony, of a company that seems priced to go private, but with the potential to be a game changing company. if a real RADAR win (not a partial one with them replacing internal HW as with FedEx) or a QNX deal, or any other deal you can imagine, were announced and we were able to have confidence what an additional RADAR deal and or QNX, etc were to look like, this company is no longer under $10, and would probably trade at a premium as that type of growth is hard to find at a reasonable price, hence the GARP investors get interested, as for now, it is mostly Value investors that are in the company. Eventually, the GARP, give way to the Growth investors, and that is where NFLX, TSLA, etc lie today, and hopefully BBRY.

    I cant say if they will be successful, however I look at the company today, ignoring the previous years of ownership, and saying to myself, would i buy this today in lieu of the other companies available to invest in, as well as the shorts saying that this company is not in danger, unlike where they were years ago. As one of the largest shareholders told me, they cant find a better risk reward in the mkt today.

    As difficult as the share price is to stomach, a simple thought comes to mind.

    The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.Warren Buffett



    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-bbry3.png
    Last edited by kadakn01; 08-17-17 at 12:01 AM.
    08-16-17 11:48 PM
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