View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

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1106. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. Seadog83's Avatar
    Questions?

    By the way, guys, if you have any questions for BBRY's management - and I suspect you might have some after this morning's results - please post them before Monday 8 AM. Answers - as best as they can be obtained - will be shared a few days later.

    Great opportunity to get some things clarified, imo.
    Do they have any sort of actual strategy regarding cash? I mean they borrowed $1.25b, paid considerable interest to do so, and it just sat in a bank account and was never needed. Granted that's with the benefit of hindsight, and you can make the argument it was prudent to have a buffer, and to show the market it was solvent at the time. Fine. Not sure why not just a line of credit/guarantee.

    Then half of it was retired last year, but only half. Again it seems we're paying to borrow money to have it sit in the bank. Even with no loan and no Qualcomm, "What are you going to do with the cash" wouldn't be an unreasonable question.

    Then out of no where we have a $940m payday, so the best thing they can think of, is share buyback but only with 1/3rd of it. In real terms financially, this company has a habit of being worse off tomorrow than today, and a buyback will increase my portion of said outflows. As a shareholder, why do I want that? Frankly until book value starts increasing in a sustainable manner, dilution is exactly what I want.

    My question is, how do they go from being so desperate for cash despite billions in the bank, that they're paying 4-6% + dilution, to being so flush, they're willing to not only tie up the money owed to Prem, but offset a good chunk of it with a buyback when BBRY is at the highest point in years? Was a major purchase planned that fell through? This is a wickedly contradictory set of actions here. eg: If we're rich enough to do a buyback, we're rich enough not to borrow money.
    Last edited by Seadog83; 06-24-17 at 02:28 PM.
    Corbu, FeitaInc, gg22 and 3 others like this.
    06-24-17 02:13 PM
  2. FeitaInc's Avatar
    Corbu, it would be great if you can ask him if he could bring Chris Lattner onboard.
    I guess I should've fleshed this one out a bit more, but if I remember correctly JC said (to Amber? or was it at the AGM?) that the reason why BB10 failed was that, besides "...being the best and most logical OS..." they didn't spend enough and failed to get the app ecosystem of the ground. no virtuous cycle.

    So the overall point of hiring Chris Lattner (besides getting a brilliant guy to run ADAS ++ development at QNX) is to strengthen the narrative that QNX in the car won't share the same faith as the BBRY of old when Apple came along. Market share in the "legacy & commoditized" infotainment market is one thing, but unless they own the autonomous market then the SP won't be as interesting for shareholders as it might have been. Right now, the story they're telling is that it's 10-15 years out. Tesla is saying that it'll be here tomorrow. Who do you think people want to support?

    some might push back and say that QNX has held of Microsoft for years, but to the best of my knowledge the new transportation market (which will be driven by autonomy and AI) will be at least a XX of orders of magnitudes bigger than the infotainment market ever was, aka the big tech companies will be doing all they can to secure it for themselves.

    so unless JC is 120% sure he can get BBRY to the front of the fray, I'd say forget about the share repurchase program for now.
    Last edited by FeitaInc; 06-24-17 at 03:20 PM. Reason: badly written + typos
    06-24-17 02:35 PM
  3. world traveler and former ceo's Avatar
    They need one or more IP wins this coming quarter, which could add Billions to CASH, providing a buffer or cushion ...while Radar, QNX, and Mobile Solutions (IP) gain the kind of critical mass traction Chen envisages ...

    He needs some Partnership announcement wins also...since they have been resisting packaging and selling off other aspects of their portfolio...








    Posted via CB10
    Corbu, dusdal, alludba and 3 others like this.
    06-24-17 04:34 PM
  4. muhlan001's Avatar
    Questions?

    By the way, guys, if you have any questions for BBRY's management - and I suspect you might have some after this morning's results - please post them before Monday 8 AM. Answers - as best as they can be obtained - will be shared a few days later.

    Great opportunity to get some things clarified, imo.
    Thanks for the opportunity to ask questions, my questions would be:
    1. What is the future path of BBM for customers? We were told that BlackBerry in addition to the 200 million fixed fee they will get also a fee that depends on the traffic that could be generated. How are their revenue expectations for the BBM customer divison?
    2. Is an IPO planned for BBM customer division? If so what would be BlackBerry's share of a listed company?
    3. Last ER John Chen told us that he was in discussion with automakers in Germany. What is the status of these talks?

    Thanks
    06-24-17 06:10 PM
  5. dusdal's Avatar
    4. Are there expectations that OpEx will be reduced from Q1? As even meeting target growth would leave us with a loss at end of fiscal.

    Posted via CB10
    Corbu and morganplus8 like this.
    06-24-17 06:17 PM
  6. _dimi_'s Avatar
    I think that we should arrange a telephone call between Morgan and BlackBerry's IR department ASAP. A few mins on the phone with him and I don't think anyone would have the arrogance to just dismiss his comments nor our sentiment. Heck, they should invite Steven Capelli just to show that they take us serious and pass on all the info to John Chen himself. It's either that, or we should publish an open letter on Seeking Alpha. You could say a lot of bad things about SA, but BlackBerry lately feel the need to reply to just about any criticism coming from SA.

    I'm sure a difference could be made here.

    Posted via CB10
    Corbu, dusdal, KuroKei and 5 others like this.
    06-24-17 06:28 PM
  7. dusdal's Avatar
    For the FedEx win, let's assume best case scenario. If they equipped all of their Custom Critical Vehicles with Radar.

    1,250 x 300 (some volume discount) = 375k

    Recurring: 1,250 x 20/month = 300k annually.

    Obviously even best case, this doesn't move the revs needle enough to notice.

    However, it's a wonderful vote of confidence.

    It also makes you wonder how much of Radar Lite is being driven by these types of customers who can't justify outfitting all 90k vehicles with this system, but might make sense with a cheaper, more bare bones system?

    Posted via CB10
    Corbu, alludba, rarsen and 2 others like this.
    06-24-17 06:47 PM
  8. dusdal's Avatar
    Nice note from a Stockhouse user here:

    ""Licensing, IP and other was $32 million, or 13.1% of revenue, in the first quarter of fiscal 2018, compared to $25 million, or 5.9% of revenue, in the first quarter of fiscal 2017, representing an increase of $7 million, or 28.0%. The $7 million increase was due to the Company’s secure device licensing arrangements."

    Now THAT is really encouraging news. To recap, only two devices came online in Q1/18"

    Read more at ( ) stock message board and forum - Bullboard Discussion - Stockhouse Community
    Corbu, alludba, W Hoa and 4 others like this.
    06-24-17 09:08 PM
  9. dusdal's Avatar
    Sorry for the spam, but the same user reasoned out (convincingly I think) that the consumer BBM deal appears to have produced between 17-22 $mln in Q1:

    "So, here's the quotation from BlackBerry: "Licensing, IP and other was $32 million, or 13.1% of revenue, in the first quarter of fiscal 2018, compared to $25 million, or 5.9% of revenue, in the first quarter of fiscal 2017, representing an increase of $7 million, or 28.0%. The $7 million increase was due to the Company’s secure device licensing arrangements."

    There are 4 main sources of revenue in this category.
    1. Recurring IP revenue. All we know for certain is that it was $8m in Q3/17; that it was less in Q4; and that it was negligible in Q1/18: "And then we don't have much of an IP contribution and I'm hoping that the second half we'll see some of that" (from the conf. call).

    2. Licensing to hardware producers. Presently, this means the three phone-makers -- MP, TCL, & OI -- but in future this could include secondary arrangements with other HW makers. We know this brought in $7m in Q1/18.

    3. BBM Consumer licensing arrangement with Emtek.
    Here's the good news, then. If the first two categoriers produced a max of $15m, then BBM Consumer generated $17m. That's double the basic, fixed, quarterly licensing fee of $8.65m that we've heard so much about before.

    The context: BB & Emtek signed a deal for $207.5m for six years last June. That comes to $34.58m per year, or $8.65m per quarter. But that was just the basic licensing fee. The "sweetener" was that BB would be paid extra based on the number of page views generated for Emtek sites (news, online retail, job-hunting, videos) through BBM. But we never knew how much that might be.

    Now we have a better idea, although the precise amount depends on how much revenue was generated for recurring IP licensing. As mentioned, it was $8m in Q3/17, but was probably more like $2m to $5m in Q1/18."

    Read more at ( ) stock message board and forum - Bullboard Discussion - Stockhouse Community
    KuroKei, Corbu, alludba and 6 others like this.
    06-24-17 09:12 PM
  10. b121's Avatar
    I understand the points made by many on the thread. There are many things to be disappointed with, especially how Chen handled some of the the events (e.g., services revenue not recurring) and q&a (e.g., dividend buy back, lack of distribution, etc). I'm not disagreeing with much of the frustration.

    I did leave the conference call with with another takeaway. It sounded like each of the businesses lines is making great strides on their respective strategies. Albeit at a slower pace. Does the group here think the longterm prospects for growth or a buyout changed significantly based on the earnings release?

    I believe the general strategy is still sound. Are there other things we should be considering?
    06-24-17 10:49 PM
  11. Andy_bb_king's Avatar
    Folks,

    Some of thoughts here:

    1. It was letdown to me too regarding the top line.

    2. I also wish this time the share buyback will be serious and real this time. Keep in mind JC is a conservative person and he doesn't want much risks. That is why he need cash sitting in his pocket during turnaround phase. That is his philosophy of running business. Now should be different as there is no more or little risk at this stage and I do think he will buy back the shares this time and should support share price. Look what share buy back has done to Apple's SP.

    3. This is the first time BlackBerry shows the detailed breakdown of revenues and that shows JC's confidence and his cards. Let's do some analysis on the real businesses and growth prospects.

    To me there will be some growth on Enterprise Software segment. But I don't expect it will be explosive. That market is mature and commoditized already. But it is very important part because it will pay the bill for other segments to grow.

    BTS segment will be high growth area as this is real IoT or EoT. Radar is just a start and example. To have some device to run complicated features for 3 to 5 years without charging, that is unique and killing feature. I did wish they came with Radar Lite and Radar advanced right at the beginning instead of this fall so that we can see the growth sooner. Again, better late than never. The thing is we will see the real growth two quarters away. But how early the share price will reflect that? I have no idea and please share your opinions.

    Third segment is device licensing, IP and BBM consumer. I think this will see continued bigger and bigger growth. This will be a surprise as no one has cared about device licensing yet.

    Handheld devices segment is going to be 0 in the near future. So don't care.

    SAF is going to 0 too but it is still helping pay the bill for other growth to breakout.

    To summarize, I don't care about Enterprise Software to have significant growth or not, or professional services. I only care when SP will reflect growth of BTS and licensing two businesses. I am thinking next ER will be the time. But thing is I have never been right!

    All of these are typed from my beloved KEYone.

    Please share your thoughts. Particularly based on each segment, how should they be valued. Even without any growth, just based on 160 software quarterly revenue, it should be worth of at least 2.4 billion (just look at MOBL), then plus cash of net 1.9 billion. I am mostly puzzled constantly.
    06-25-17 12:06 AM
  12. muhlan001's Avatar
    Interesting tweet from Carl Wiese:
    So it turned to be just another misleading tweet from BlackBerry management. Is that even allowed?
    Corbu likes this.
    06-25-17 04:47 AM
  13. W Hoa's Avatar
    When is a loss actually a gain? Looking more closely at BlackBerry's earnings I can't ignore what many consider a loss YOY in software revenue but which in fact is the opposite.

    In the first image you see what caused all the negativity. It appears that enterprise software and services revenue is down YOY



    But...when you make adjustments for deferred software revenues there is actually a gain of roughly 12% YOY and you end up with this: From Q1FY18 Earnings Press Release

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-capture.jpg

    Or more clearly, this:



    In determining the growth rate you must subtract deferred software revenue acquired which presents an entirely different picture.

    In light of this it leads me to believe that the narrative from the analysts is either a cynical concoction intended to depress the share price or an outstanding example of their incompetence.


    (Thanks to Dusdal for 2 of the images)
    dusdal, rarsen, alludba and 10 others like this.
    06-25-17 05:46 AM
  14. masterful's Avatar
    Hey gents, as I remember from at least one ER calls that JC did pointed out that the reoccurring revenue is choppy or up and down until 3-4 quarter of 2018.

    I am looking for the exact words from the call transcripts and will share here.
    06-25-17 07:11 AM
  15. morganplus8's Avatar
    Remember this, btw:
    Good morning Corbu!

    This morning I'm working my way through a number of excellent messages and now that I've had a chance to settle down I do have one question for the BB team on Monday.

    It is in regard to the share buyback program:

    <<In the past, BlackBerry has initiated numerous buyback programs while holding onto a large amount of cash. Historically, purchases has been in the area of 20% of the allotted and redeemable amount. Shareholders see buyback programs as a preferred way to help mitigate the large and unfair short position in the equity of BlackBerry. My question is, "what are the intentions of BlackBerry this time? Will the company make a real statement and act more along the lines of shareholder wants and aggressively purchase those shares in a full and timely manner?>>


    The lack of interest in the announcement of the share buyback program by analysts and the media suggests no one is expecting a bold move in this direction, once again.

    Thank you Corbu.
    Corbu, bbjdog, W Hoa and 6 others like this.
    06-25-17 09:52 AM
  16. morganplus8's Avatar
    Guys,

    Given the recent EC and our collective reaction, I would like to suggest something.

    First, it is possible for each one of us to reach out to BBRY Investor Relations (IR) by email (investor_relations@blackberry.com) and make them aware of our concerns. Second - if you feel this is a good idea - I could take the initiative of gathering our recent comments and thoughts and presenting them to IR on our collective behalf. Others who are more knowledgeable than I am (Morgan?) would be welcome to do this instead of myself but if need be, I'll gladly do it.

    My position is this: Friday has been almost universally (across this board as well as elsewhere) perceived as a punch in the stomach. We have been faithful stockholders and we can/must make our concerns known. What can we expect from reaching out to them? I don't know. Probably not much. But worth a shot.

    This is over and above the privileged access we have to BBRY management on Monday. That meeting is with another group and will enable us to get some more specific questions answered.

    Let me know what you think.
    So I see that you are upping the challenge this time around and rightfully so. I would suggest that we pause to hear from the results of your question period before we move here. My reasoning is this, we haven't seen any downgrades so far from analysts, they might be coming tomorrow, but for now, I haven't read any. If they aren't panicking, perhaps we shouldn't either.

    So I would suggest we hold back until we hear from you as well as possibly some analysts. For instance, Faucettes take on the ER was that it was confusing for him, he couldn't account for the revenue numbers or lack there of this Q but he held his target level at $ 10.00 /shr suggesting that the future still looks predictable and good. He bought into the delays and still thinks they are reasonable.

    If there are issues that need to be addressed I would be happy to send BlackBerry a letter and talk us through those issues. For me at this stage, the damage is done, if they want to fill that 31 MM share repurchase program I can live with the weakness in the stock.
    Corbu, bbjdog, W Hoa and 4 others like this.
    06-25-17 10:15 AM
  17. Corbu's Avatar
    Very well, Morgan.

    I agree with your suggestion. Let us wait and see past the next few days and the information that we can gather from tomorrow's meeting. If need be, we follow-up with another course of action afterwards.

    If that is agreeable to others, I am fine with that. Quite the wise course of action, imo.

    PS: And thank you for your offer to intervene.
    Last edited by Corbu; 06-25-17 at 10:34 AM. Reason: Added PS
    bbjdog, morganplus8, W Hoa and 4 others like this.
    06-25-17 10:21 AM
  18. morganplus8's Avatar
    I think that we should arrange a telephone call between Morgan and BlackBerry's IR department ASAP. A few mins on the phone with him and I don't think anyone would have the arrogance to just dismiss his comments nor our sentiment. Heck, they should invite Steven Capelli just to show that they take us serious and pass on all the info to John Chen himself. It's either that, or we should publish an open letter on Seeking Alpha. You could say a lot of bad things about SA, but BlackBerry lately feel the need to reply to just about any criticism coming from SA.

    I'm sure a difference could be made here.

    Posted via CB10
    Hey _dimi_,

    Much respect for your comments here. Please read my responses to see where I'm going with the whole thing. I'm fully prepared to talk to BlackBerry but in many ways, the damage is done.

    My attack is centered on the premise that BB has posted yet another misleading buyback program. To say that they are trying to limit the effect of the bond issue is just plain erroneous. As of the close Friday, there is no indication that those bonds will ever be subject to being exercised. The second point is, shouldn't they invest the funds now and grow the business rather then be seen acting like Wall Street Brokers who guess at what the future will hold. Don't tell me you are going to offset the bond issue and not do it.

    Let's take HALO for example, they have issued blocks of stock numerous times and not one shareholder has said a negative thing about this despite knowing those shares will never be repurchased or retired. And yet the stock price continued to climb even within a sector that is not on Wall Street's radar. The reason the stock enjoys better vibes is because they are focused on the business at all costs. Obviously we are setup for another hit tomorrow but this one might be the last, so I would hope that you step away from the idea of selling near the bottom on the stock price cycle and have a look at it in two more days. The value is there, we are likely to hear from Chen during this Q2 period regarding new deals etc., something that offsets the news we have now and propels the stock back into the $ 10.00 plus area. If need be, I'll simply sell some Call Options and create revenue for myself and wait this one out. Let us know what you decide to do.
    06-25-17 10:37 AM
  19. morganplus8's Avatar
    Analyst Opinion (Some clarity):

    Analyst Research Notes and other Company News
    June 23, 2017
    10:01 am ET ... CFRA REITERATES BUY OPINION ON SHARES OF BLACKBERRY
    LIMITED (BBRY 11.06****):We maintain our 12-month target at $13, on
    price-to-sales above peers to reflect growth prospects and net cash per share
    over $3.We keep our FY 18 (Feb.) operating EPS estimate at $0.12 and FY 19 at
    $0.17. BBRY posts May-Q EPS of $0.02 vs. breakeven, beating the breakeven
    estimate. Sales fell 42% while gross margin widened, on the shift away from
    hardware.We remain optimistic about opportunities in enterprise mobility
    management, secure messaging and QNX.We like its more recurring sales
    exposure. BBRY announces a share repurchase program for up to 6.4% of its
    public float. /A. Zino-CFA


    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-cfra-report-bbry-june-24-2017.jpg
    06-25-17 12:23 PM
  20. he_x3's Avatar
    Remember this, btw:
    Hi Corbu,

    Thank you very much for organizing and offering to do this.

    Here are my questions:

    1. I understand the sales cycle for Radar is approximately 6-9 months between POC, contract negotiation and deployment. What does the company anticipate the sales cycle for Radar Lite to be? Considering the product will be introduced in the second half of the year, is it reasonable to assume the Company may not have be able to generate a substantial amount of revenue from this product in the current fiscal year?

    2. Similar to question 1, what will the sales cycle for the vehicle management portal look like? If this product is introduced in fall and sold to OEMs, will testing and contract negotiations cause minimal revenue to be recognized in the current fiscal year? In addition, would the product have a similar QNX design business model, which would result in revenue materializing only after 2-3 years once cars with the technology are rolled out into production?

    3. The $7 million increase due to the Company’s secure device licensing agreement – was this purely based on a per unit device licensing fee or a combination of a per unit device licensing fee and a minimum base licensing fee as per each agreement? If the latter, could you please indicate the split?

    4. The Company has an arbitration occurring with one of its licensors. Has the Company made any accruals in the financials for the potential money owed? Is there the potential the company could get a refund as occurred in the Qualcomm case? Are the amounts related to this dispute material?
    06-25-17 06:08 PM
  21. he_x3's Avatar
    Hi everyone,

    Please find below some some resources I found useful when trying to make sense of Friday's report:

    Bookings vs Revenues vs Billings
    - trying to make sense of the divergence between highest billings in Q4 and accelerated billings in Q1 comments compared to low revenue growth numbers
    - Bookings vs Revenue vs Billings for SaaS and subscriptionSaasmetrics Blog

    Deferred Revenue
    - the non-GAAP treatment the company used help provide financial statement users to appreciate the total scale of revenue being produced by the company. However, if those sales don't get renewed then the company's YoY performance would be impacted
    - I don't like the tone of the article, but it helps to understand the deferred revenue adjustment
    - Globeinvestor.com: Read BlackBerry earnings reports with care

    Good Technology S1 filing (IPO filing)
    - provides some good information about billings and deferred revenue and their split between perpetual and recurring licenses
    - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...520327ds1a.htm

    Enjoy!
    06-25-17 06:26 PM
  22. bbjdog's Avatar
    From my TD alerts.

    Analyst Actions: BlackBerry Price Target Boosted to $10 From $9 by BMO, Rating Kept at Market Perform
    2017-06-26 06:23:54 AM ET (MT Newswires)


    06:23 AM EDT, 06/26/2017 (MT Newswires) -- BlackBerry (BBRY) received a price-target increase Monday from BMO Capital Markets even after the mobile-communications company on Friday reported weaker-than-expected revenue for its fiscal Q1, as its adjusted earnings per share still topped the Street view.

    The new price target is $10 per share, up from $9. In comparison, the stock closed Friday's session at $9.71, down 12% on the day. BMO kept its investment rating on the stock at market perform.

    For the quarter ended May 31, BlackBerry reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.02, up from the break-even point a year earlier and topping analysts' mean estimate according to Capital IQ for a break-even result. Revenue, however, totaled $244 million, down from $424 million in the year-earlier period and below analysts' mean estimate of $262.8 million.

    BMO noted to clients that the weaker-than-expected revenue came as the software segment missed expectations, which it called "a disappointment given the company's ongoing transition to a software-centric business model."

    The firm added: "BlackBerry does have several paths to growth in software, though the timing and traction of those opportunities remains unclear." BMO also said the company's full-year growth target "still appears somewhat aggressive, particularly at the high end of the range."
    W Hoa, rarsen, Corbu and 7 others like this.
    06-26-17 05:33 AM
  23. W Hoa's Avatar
    Wells Fargo raised its price target on BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY) to $9.00 (from $8.50) while maintaining a Market Perform rating, following the company's first quarter earnings report.

    https://www.streetinsider.com/Analys.../13042628.html
    bbjdog, rarsen, Corbu and 6 others like this.
    06-26-17 06:32 AM
  24. Corbu's Avatar
    Thanks for the questions, guys!

    I will report as soon as possible on the answers that we manage to obtain.

    06-26-17 07:30 AM
  25. Corbu's Avatar
    I understand TD (Daniel Chan) has upgraded to US$11.50
    W Hoa, morganplus8, bbjdog and 5 others like this.
    06-26-17 07:38 AM
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