View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1106. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. b121's Avatar
    I like their strategy a lot, but agree things seem to be taking time. The 20% of my BBRY holdings I sold at $11.32 in May went back in today at $9.69 (in an tax deferred account). We shall see.

    Morgan, I really appreciate your insights. thank you!
    morganplus8 likes this.
    06-23-17 08:14 PM
  2. dalinxz's Avatar
    Seems to me short term, Longs can only hope for IP win announcements... otherwise shorts just totally having their way...

    Posted via CB10
    Not at all, Chen is writing a narrative for the company, he's focused on growing a company, growth too quickly means higher expectations for growth. Once the market realizes that BlackBerry is a ship changed paths, value will be realized quickly
    bbjdog likes this.
    06-23-17 08:40 PM
  3. dusdal's Avatar
    ...
    Last edited by dusdal; 06-24-17 at 06:13 AM.
    06-23-17 09:34 PM
  4. dusdal's Avatar
    ...
    Last edited by dusdal; 06-24-17 at 06:13 AM.
    Bacon Munchers likes this.
    06-23-17 09:37 PM
  5. morganplus8's Avatar
    The idea of them keeping the buyback going at anything under $10 also gives them the ability to make money on the debentures (in a way - discounting share for share what they get, not considering interest) this in effect gives the SP a floor, shorts would be disserviced to short below 10 because BlackBerry would likely compete for those shares in buying them back in order to get discounted shares per the funds received from the debenture
    I will make a few observations if I may:

    1) Chen said today he is not able to market BB products as well as they should be at this time, nor are they ready to go live as many are still in development now
    2) He stated he would like to see an acquisition sooner than later
    3) We traded 50 million shares today and BlackBerry will be allowed to purchase only 347,000 shares so there is little reason to believe that MM's are worried about the buyback program at any time or price level this year
    4) BB needs $ 500 MM in operating cash, a cash reserve of at least $ 600 MM to support the bond redemption in 2020, that's big money taken out of the system right now
    5) When you think of BB purchasing up to $ 750 MM worth of shares in the faint hope that the stock is over $ 10.00 on redemption day, you might want to consider the above points

    There is no way that this purchase program will slow the on-slot of sell programs in the stock. When Chen states that we need an acquisition now, that we don't have our product suite ready until the second half of the Fiscal year, and, that we can expect a huge acceptance of that new product at that time (to bolster the weak current margins), you know the shorts are going to a field day with this delay. Even our competitors like MOBL who are 1/4 of the size of BlackBerry will run with today's ER as a selling tool.

    I would like to say every ER is a good one but this one lacks the imagination that a strong leader should have to set the tone for our next Q. We are now faced with a void for the Q2 period, hoping that some legal battle is won, that the general market doesn't crash, that our competitors aren't reveling in our slow advance within their tech space. The company was primed to do well this quarter and Chen couldn't have asked for a better lead up to the ER than a stock trading at multi-year highs. Forgetting to mention to analysts that "services" would drop off a cliff when it was clear to all of us that analysts where looking for $ 264 MM for well over one month, is hard to accept. There is only so much money to spend here and we came across as a company that wasn't ready by any means to compete anytime soon. At 50 MM shares traded today, others are starting to feel like some of these issues are more important now, the honeymoon maybe over for Chen if he isn't careful.

    My issue here is that Chen only has to be accountable 5 times per year, these errors shouldn't be happening so consistently. The buy program is justifiable if delivered the right way and that didn't happen today. He isn't a rookie any more so know what to expect when its analysts day, be prepared.
    06-23-17 10:40 PM
  6. rampagingpanda's Avatar
    Morgan, just want to thank you for your detailed insights as always. Like you, and many here, I am also frustrated with the outcome of today's earnings.

    The abysmal performance in our software and services division makes it that much harder to achieve the full year target of 10-15% annual growth.

    I still strongly believe in BlackBerry and John's ability to deliver. But quarters like today's is slowly eroding my patience.
    Corbu, morganplus8 and rarsen like this.
    06-24-17 12:20 AM
  7. KuroKei's Avatar
    There was so much momentum going into the ER but it didn't follow through. Frustrated as well!
    Corbu, morganplus8 and Superfly_FR like this.
    06-24-17 12:35 AM
  8. dusdal's Avatar

    One nice thing Amber got him to do was quantify QNX for the quarter, about 35 million if memory serves. She told him folks expect BlackBerry to be a "pure car play" and that's when he spoke about being a cyber security play for EOT (Enterprise of Things - part of IOT).
    Ya, they're breaking out revs now into the business segments. Which is nice.

    You can see the figures on today's 10Q here https://us.blackberry.com/content/da...nformation.pdf

    Presumably that 35 mln is the same as last year and the 1 mln uptick is due to early Radar sales.
    rarsen, Corbu, morganplus8 and 2 others like this.
    06-24-17 01:10 AM
  9. Bacon Munchers's Avatar
    Another Qualcomm / Avaya cash in for next quarter?! What a trend this would be. Who's next? I feel it's a great time to buy.

    Posted via CB10
    Think of the lawsuits as Bear spray until the market starts behaving. Of course, the effect is somewhat short lived. I vote for more spray, plus add in the cow bell for safe measure.

    So, 344,741 common shares can be bought back daily, other than block purchases, starting on the 27th. I am curious as to whether or not the stock stays low until then. That would give a hint as to who all controls this stock. Also, what size would 'block purchases' be considered? The rules seem to be a bit vague here.
    morganplus8 and rarsen like this.
    06-24-17 01:17 AM
  10. dusdal's Avatar
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-blackberry-business-segmented-revs-q117.png

    These are the adjusted revs broken into business segments.

    The description of what is contained in each segment is given as:

    Enterprise software and services
    includes revenues from the Company’s security, productivity, collaboration and endpoint
    management solutions through the BlackBerry Secure platform, which includes BlackBerry Unified Endpoint Manager (UEM), BlackBerry Workspaces and BBM Protected, among other products and applications, as well as revenues from the sale of the Company’s AtHoc Alert secure networked crisis communications solution, its SecuSmart SecuSUITE secure voice and text solution, and professional services from BlackBerry Cybersecurity Solutions.

    BlackBerry Technology Solutions
    includes revenues from the Company’s QNX CAR Platform and Neutrino Operating
    System, as well as revenues from the Company’s BlackBerry Radar asset tracking solution, Paratek antenna tuning technology, and Certicom cryptography and key management products.

    Licensing, IP and other
    includes revenues from the Company’s mobility licensing software arrangements, including
    revenue from licensed hardware sales, the Company’s Intellectual Property and Licensing business, and from its BBM Consumer licensing arrangement.

    Handheld devices
    includes revenues from the sale of the DTEK60 and all prior BlackBerry smartphone models to carriers and distributors, accessories and repair services of handheld devices.

    SAF
    includes revenues associated with the Company’s legacy SAF business, relating to subscribers utilizing the Company’s legacy BlackBerry 7 and prior operating systems, as well as revenues relating to unspecified future software upgrade rights for devices sold by the Company.

    While, I believe, the reported figures that may have spooked some are in the image below. These are before adjusting for deferred software revenues.

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-unadjusted-business-segment-revs-q117.png
    Last edited by dusdal; 06-24-17 at 01:47 AM. Reason: missed formatting a heading
    rarsen, Corbu, morganplus8 and 3 others like this.
    06-24-17 01:30 AM
  11. dusdal's Avatar

    Warning: This is a Devil's Advocate post

    Here is what I think a short thesis could well include at this point:

    1. Were it not for the Qualcomm win, we would have had cash burn this quarter through normal operations. Of about 70 mln I believe
    2. Even if all of the top three segments meet target, the other two fall as expected, and we hit the 70% margin, we will still be in an operating loss situation by end of fiscal 2018.
      - someone check my math. This is based on backing out Qualcomm and debenture adjusts
      - this also assumes no reduction in SG&A, maybe they can reduce this more?
    3. I thought I had a third point, but I don't remember it now haha
    Last edited by dusdal; 06-24-17 at 02:17 AM. Reason: formatting
    Corbu, rarsen and Mr BBRY like this.
    06-24-17 02:15 AM
  12. _dimi_'s Avatar
    Think I'll sell out first thing on Monday.. if they're taking this stock back to a level under 9 dollars, I'd rather be out. They can't expect shareholders to wait for one-time events (like the Qualcomm payment) that is then completely undone by poor earnings and nothing to expect in the next quarter. Makes you wonder where we'd stand without the Qualcomm settlement.

    Hopefully, BlackBerry under 10 dollars also means a poor quarter for Prem Watsa. I wonder if the interest he's gaining means much if he stands to lose a bunch on the 50 MM shares he's holding.

    On top of that, I wonder if JC is capable of talking down this stock. He already mentioned that he's cheap. Does that mean he'd rather buy at for example 9 dollars instead of 10 dollars per share? It would save him 31,000,000 dollars, which isn't exactly peanuts. Just a whole lot more frustrated investors to deal with.

    Posted via CB10
    Corbu likes this.
    06-24-17 04:19 AM
  13. FeitaInc's Avatar
    To M8's point, nobody know BBRY like JC, and given his optimistic and calm response to the post-ER market response, I can't but wonder how the pipeline is looking from his perspective. He has repeatedly said that IP licensing takes a long time to put in place, but Sandeep has been working at it for several years now. Is something like another IP licensing deal right around the corner? And would that materially change the narrative, or perhaps lack of narrative, that they put out for Q2? Or a design win with a car company (like the Ford deal, say with VW)? Or is some M&A activity right around the corner?

    I guess I'm grasping at straws here, but yeah. it definitely seems like JC has a plan that he is executing on.
    Corbu, morganplus8, rarsen and 1 others like this.
    06-24-17 05:40 AM
  14. W Hoa's Avatar
    People here are, almost unanimously, taking a step back from BBRY. A rare event, but justifiable given Friday's results. Two events stand out for me: firstly that the enterprise software showed a decline yoy and secondly that the CFO failed to convey the non-recurring nature of a large portion of the professional services revenue realized in the previous quarter. This last item should have been addressed by Chen telling analysts, well in advance of ER, that their projections were too aggressive.

    A possible answer for my first concern re: enterprise software decline:

    ...it also didn't help that BlackBerry's Enterprise Software & Services business, which along with QNX is at the heart of the company's turnaround strategy, saw revenue fall by $5 million to $101 million.

    However, when one backs out deferred revenue related to past acquisitions -- it totaled $9 million in the May quarter, down from $24 million in the year-ago quarter -- Enterprise Software & Services revenue grew 12% to $92 million.
    On a more positive note:

    BlackBerry's turnaround effort did just hit a speed bump, but it hasn't exactly run into a brick wall, either. And with BlackBerry's stock still trading for a moderate 3.7 times its fiscal 2018 revenue consensus excluding net cash, it doesn't exactly have to return to its glory days to make investors happy.
    https://www.thestreet.com/story/1419...it-looked.html
    Last edited by W Hoa; 06-24-17 at 06:26 AM.
    rarsen, Corbu, morganplus8 and 1 others like this.
    06-24-17 06:03 AM
  15. world traveler and former ceo's Avatar
    There was so much momentum going into the ER but it didn't follow through. Frustrated as well!
    Yep..totally lost it... handed it back to shorts

    Posted via CB10
    Corbu, morganplus8 and rarsen like this.
    06-24-17 06:38 AM
  16. Seadog83's Avatar
    Not at all, Chen is writing a narrative for the company, he's focused on growing a company, growth too quickly means higher expectations for growth. Once the market realizes that BlackBerry is a ship changed paths, value will be realized quickly
    Many people here sound like abused wives. Despite being treated like garbage we go back for more and more of the same abuse, making excuses all the while, for the better part of a decade now.

    I honestly think this was the worst report since Chen took over and since the June '13 one when it became apparent BB10 didn't have any traction. Even reminiscent of Heins going on about "10s of millions of phones sold" vs the reality and Chen obfuscating the fact that S&S was going to be 20m less than everyone expected.

    I'm basically left scratching my head as to what's going on here and what or even if there's a plan. The setup into the quarterly report saw the stock as bullish and strong as it's been in Chen's tenure, he was on a breakaway, and all he had to do was deliver an easy layup. The market *wanted* to give him a pass, all he had to do was not report the Hindenburg going down in flames.

    Basically (in as much was said) HW is going to zero sooner than later. SAF going to zero sooner than later. Software, er *cough* "adjusted" software, because the number they reported a year ago, and that everyone was running was massively inflated and the wrong number - is growing at the lower end of his projection, and any revenue for many of their new products will be coming later, rather than sooner.

    Unfortunately the detractors and long time bears on Seeking Alpha, seem to be getting more and more right and I'm starting to give some heed to. Growth and profit numbers are almost meaningless. Adjusted earnings are great for judging the health of a business, however with BBRY it seems every bloody quarter there are 8-9 figure adjustments which generally represent *real money* going out the door. Over the last few years the profit has always been a few cents within break even, so you think "hey not bad - we're treading water" but the truth is that the book value has been slashed by half. Their reporting - even on line items now, has become a jumble of whatever they want to show.

    What's the point of the buyback? I agree with Morgan 100%, *if* there's a concrete plan and reason to confidently believe the stock with be much higher, fine. But what is that plan? That we'll honestly struggle to break 200m of revs next quarter? Sadly they seem to be playing up every scrap of good news for all it's worth, and if it's not great (ie how much is the FedEx deal worth? maybe it's a free test?) they leave a blank and hope people will fill in something optimistic.

    My huge concern with the buyback is that do to such after such disappointing results, they want to do something positive - anything - even if it includes using up their last bit of dry powder for for something that looks good. What if they are only doing this out of desperation, and that they honestly have no other ideas? They seem honestly to be putting the horse before the cart. Stock buy backs *can* be great, however they're only great after tremendous growth and profitability as a result of getting a larger cut of the profits. Now this is what everyone wants, but what's the clear path there Chen? Further, why are you *so* confident that's how it will play out, that you can say "we don't even need all this money we have" when history has shown prudence might be the wiser path?
    06-24-17 06:39 AM
  17. Corbu's Avatar
    Great series of posts and thoughts, guys. Many thanks to all.
    06-24-17 07:45 AM
  18. morganplus8's Avatar
    To M8's point, nobody know BBRY like JC, and given his optimistic and calm response to the post-ER market response, I can't but wonder how the pipeline is looking from his perspective. He has repeatedly said that IP licensing takes a long time to put in place, but Sandeep has been working at it for several years now. Is something like another IP licensing deal right around the corner? And would that materially change the narrative, or perhaps lack of narrative, that they put out for Q2? Or a design win with a car company (like the Ford deal, say with VW)? Or is some M&A activity right around the corner?

    I guess I'm grasping at straws here, but yeah. it definitely seems like JC has a plan that he is executing on.
    In the past quarters, your optimistic thoughts about Chen and the prospects for BB would be typical of most here. What happened this quarter is an accumulation of question marks on both John Chen as a CEO and the company and its position within its space.

    Do you tell the competition flat out that you are harmless for 1 - 2 more quarters, that you don't have a distribution plan in place for what you are marketing now? Do you tell them you need to spend money ASAP to build out distribution (or through acquisition) to find a resolution to this lack of forethought on the issue? How much negative press do you hand over to the competition? I would say "none". BlackBerry went from a perceived leader to one trying to catch up with the rest of the sector and the numbers tend to validate this now. If a little one trick pony like MOBL has to pre-guide higher going into earnings and their stock flies higher because of it, BlackBerry should be doing twice as well with their vast resources.

    Then there is the hastily assembled buyback program. You have held billions of dollars for years now, the stock was dirt cheap all of that time, you initiate a 27 MM share buyback which was available for all of last year and you actually buy only less than 7 MM shares? What message does that send to shareholders? Are we to believe that now that the hopes and dreams of shareholders has been crushed by this Q, that you are now willing and able to buy shares aggressively at much higher prices? BlackBerry has zero history of follow-through in buying back shares when they were cheap and we wanted them purchased, are they now going to step up and buy 31 MM of them at these prices because of a lame excuse of dilution? On Tuesday I suspect we won't notice that they are even in there doing anything.

    I'll stop here, the best reasons to stay calm are actually coming from the media and analysts not the company. Chen did nothing to counter the important questions asked of him by everyone yesterday. We are left to seek comfort in what others outside the company have to say. Again to my point earlier, a little of PR work goes a long way, if consensus is $ 264 MM and you know what the difference in your numbers are, you talk about it like you know about it, up front. You don't wait for the stock to get crushed and then claim that, "I told you not to expect the same number next Q". That's grade school whining at that point.

    For me, it was the combination of a series of flops on the part of Chen that set me off yesterday. He stands to make $ 100 of millions over the years on this one and yet he is stumbling along each quarter now. No one has said to him not to hire the very best turn-around experts so do it! There is no excuse for not nurturing the massive rally that we have given him this past quarter.

    I'll hold onto my shares, I won't buy more, I'm disappointed in this Q as it has created a huge amount of uncertainty now and a terrible Q2 coming up. All of that momentum that so many created for BlackBerry products is now out the window because they dropped the distribution ball themselves. I don't want to hear from a company with that much cash that they aren't ready to sell their own products. I want to hear that from MOBL.

    Sorry for dumping on you and I must say, some great messages this morning on the topic.
    06-24-17 09:03 AM
  19. Corbu's Avatar
    Could not agree more, Morgan. Thanks for putting it so clearly.

    Yesterday was a major letdown for me.
    morganplus8, rarsen and Mr BBRY like this.
    06-24-17 09:12 AM
  20. KuroKei's Avatar
    That's exactly what I am thinking about, Morgan. They need to be a lot more transparent. Unless they are actually hiding an ugly truth which then makes this company a whole lot riskier.

    I hope more clarity will be given in days ahead...
    06-24-17 09:31 AM
  21. Corbu's Avatar
    Remember this, btw:

    Questions?

    By the way, guys, if you have any questions for BBRY's management - and I suspect you might have some after this morning's results - please post them before Monday 8 AM. Answers - as best as they can be obtained - will be shared a few days later.

    Great opportunity to get some things clarified, imo.
    morganplus8, rarsen and bbjdog like this.
    06-24-17 09:43 AM
  22. FeitaInc's Avatar
    In the past quarters, your optimistic thoughts about Chen and the prospects for BB would be typical of most here. What happened this quarter is an accumulation of question marks on both John Chen as a CEO and the company and its position within its space.
    To tell you the truth, I was kind of shaken yesterday. The post you quoted wasn't meant as blindly optimistic, more as an attempt on "recapturing" a framework on how to think of the narrative JC has and is spinning. To all of your points, the ER was such flat landing I hoped there is some huge deal that got pushed to the right of the quarter.

    As you said, JC is set to make a lot of money, and if he forces the stock sideways through a share repurchase program, that at present appears to be more smoke and mirrors than anything, I won't be happy to say the least.
    06-24-17 10:01 AM
  23. Bacon Munchers's Avatar
    I will make a few observations if I may:

    1) Chen said today he is not able to market BB products as well as they should be at this time, nor are they ready to go live as many are still in development now
    2) He stated he would like to see an acquisition sooner than later
    3) We traded 50 million shares today and BlackBerry will be allowed to purchase only 347,000 shares so there is little reason to believe that MM's are worried about the buyback program at any time or price level this year
    4) BB needs $ 500 MM in operating cash, a cash reserve of at least $ 600 MM to support the bond redemption in 2020, that's big money taken out of the system right now
    5) When you think of BB purchasing up to $ 750 MM worth of shares in the faint hope that the stock is over $ 10.00 on redemption day, you might want to consider the above points

    There is no way that this purchase program will slow the on-slot of sell programs in the stock. When Chen states that we need an acquisition now, that we don't have our product suite ready until the second half of the Fiscal year, and, that we can expect a huge acceptance of that new product at that time (to bolster the weak current margins), you know the shorts are going to a field day with this delay. Even our competitors like MOBL who are 1/4 of the size of BlackBerry will run with today's ER as a selling tool.

    I would like to say every ER is a good one but this one lacks the imagination that a strong leader should have to set the tone for our next Q. We are now faced with a void for the Q2 period, hoping that some legal battle is won, that the general market doesn't crash, that our competitors aren't reveling in our slow advance within their tech space. The company was primed to do well this quarter and Chen couldn't have asked for a better lead up to the ER than a stock trading at multi-year highs. Forgetting to mention to analysts that "services" would drop off a cliff when it was clear to all of us that analysts where looking for $ 264 MM for well over one month, is hard to accept. There is only so much money to spend here and we came across as a company that wasn't ready by any means to compete anytime soon. At 50 MM shares traded today, others are starting to feel like some of these issues are more important now, the honeymoon maybe over for Chen if he isn't careful.

    My issue here is that Chen only has to be accountable 5 times per year, these errors shouldn't be happening so consistently. The buy program is justifiable if delivered the right way and that didn't happen today. He isn't a rookie any more so know what to expect when its analysts day, be prepared.
    I never make it a habit to reply to a quote with all the said attached, but this was so brilliantly worded, it needed a 'boost'.
    This had better be on a plaque at the entrance to BlackBerry HQ.
    Bravo.

    Now, I'll go refresh my lip gloss.
    06-24-17 12:26 PM
  24. Corbu's Avatar
    Guys,

    Given the recent EC and our collective reaction, I would like to suggest something.

    First, it is possible for each one of us to reach out to BBRY Investor Relations (IR) by email (investor_relations@blackberry.com) and make them aware of our concerns. Second - if you feel this is a good idea - I could take the initiative of gathering our recent comments and thoughts and presenting them to IR on our collective behalf. Others who are more knowledgeable than I am (Morgan?) would be welcome to do this instead of myself but if need be, I'll gladly do it.

    My position is this: Friday has been almost universally (across this board as well as elsewhere) perceived as a punch in the stomach. We have been faithful stockholders and we can/must make our concerns known. What can we expect from reaching out to them? I don't know. Probably not much. But worth a shot.

    This is over and above the privileged access we have to BBRY management on Monday. That meeting is with another group and will enable us to get some more specific questions answered.

    Let me know what you think.
    KuroKei, rarsen, W Hoa and 6 others like this.
    06-24-17 12:49 PM
  25. Corbu's Avatar
    06-24-17 01:04 PM
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