View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1106. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Another buy-back program ?
    BlackBerry announces common share purchase program https://www.crackberry.com/blackberr...hase-program-0
    06-23-17 01:18 PM
  2. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    "We intend to take advantage of our strong cash position to purchase our shares when the market price does not reflect what we view to be the underlying value and future prospects of our business, without adversely affecting our strategic initiatives," added Mr. Chen."
    alludba and Greened like this.
    06-23-17 01:20 PM
  3. jsocan's Avatar
    @Corbu Please ask management the following:
    1. Chen mentioned today that it'd take two years to see revenue from QNX design wins. With the expanded partnership with Ford and Qualcomm happening this year, should we expect meaningful accelerated growth from QNX to not happen until end of calendar 2019 when model year 2020 cars come out.
    2. If I'm not mistaken, Chen mentioned in last ER's Q&A that he went to Germany to talk with some car manufacturer. Will we see another Ford-like deal with a German car maker this year or is it still too early in discussion?
    3. Given KEYone's seemingly higher than expected global demand, and with India Optiemus launching its version this year as well, but BBRY's revenue growth guidance for this fiscal year remains at 10 - 15 percentage. Does it mean the royalty revenue from handset sales is insignificant to move the needle, or does management not believe the phone manufacturers will be able to ramp up their production this year to realize higher sales target?
    4. Chen's contract is coming due November next year. Has contract renewal talk started or will Chen be retiring?

    Thanks in advance.
    06-23-17 01:30 PM
  4. _dimi_'s Avatar
    He has protected Prem in a big way for years now! You are also right, he has in turn protected BB shareholders as well.

    So here is my problem, he also stated that it's part of a three year program to purchase shares to offset the bond issue. He was allowed only 31 MM shares for the next 12 months so he will be lobbying for as much as 40 MM additional shares, that's as much as $ 750 MM in cash that you have to take off the books today. In addition, he is liable to purchase back those bonds when they come due so you have to allot $ 605 MM plus for those too. That doesn't leave much room for M&A activity does it? He either feels strongly that retiring shares will be his best possible use for that money or he is prepared to see the stock below $ 10.00 when the bonds come due and will deal with that issue when its time. I think he is sending out a confusing message to Funds who buy and hold for at least 5-years. They can't plan for BBRY as an investment when the cash on hand is suddenly spoken for. It's one of those sell now and ask questions later deals for them.

    I wish he would talk about the share buyback plan, is he so confident that the stock will be much higher that he feels compiled to buy shares today? Let's hope this is the reasoning for this big announcement. Quite frankly, I don't think that anyone cares if the bonds exercise or not.

    As for the ER, it isn't a bad ER as software sales including QNX are solid there but it is a big mistake not to pre-announce a material change in the companies forecast for Q1 when you know there is a $ 20 MM hit to earnings all along and you held that info back until reporting day. That is not good business practice and it invites lawsuits.

    On the charts we turned the corner and finally have the base needed for a rally off the lows now. Hopefully we aren't as bad as AAPL and spend our time outside the BB Bands for 6 straight days.
    Hi Morgan,


    Just to clarify: they are buying back shares (initially a confirmed 30 million shares) to protect shareholders against more dilution (due to compensation packages and potentially the bond that might be converted into +/- 60 million additional shares). So in theory they would have to buy back 70 million shares to offset at least the dilution from the bonds and the compensation package approved for FY2018?

    It's not exactly clear to me how BlackBerry acquiring a tech company worth +/- 600 million USD (this is just an assumption?) and the additional 300 million USD worth of shares in the open market, is a risky strategy if they just received > 900 million USD from Qualcomm which would cover the costs? Could it not be that Prem Watsa decides over the next year if he'll convert the bonds into shares? Which should then trigger JC to either preserve cash for when the bonds expire or to buy back shares in the open market to offset the dilution if the bonds are converted into shares, which should in theory have the same effect? It doesn't seem realistic that he will AND buy back shares to offset the entire dilution caused by the bonds AND preserve cash for when the bonds reach maturity and they're not converted AND do a significant acquisition (+/- 600 million USD)?





    Posted via CB10
    morganplus8, alludba and rarsen like this.
    06-23-17 01:36 PM
  5. Corbu's Avatar
    06-23-17 02:03 PM
  6. morganplus8's Avatar
    Hi Morgan,


    Just to clarify: they are buying back shares (initially a confirmed 30 million shares) to protect shareholders against more dilution (due to compensation packages and potentially the bond that might be converted into +/- 60 million additional shares). So in theory they would have to buy back 70 million shares to offset at least the dilution from the bonds and the compensation package approved for FY2018?

    It's not exactly clear to me how BlackBerry acquiring a tech company worth +/- 600 million USD (this is just an assumption?) and the additional 300 million USD worth of shares in the open market, is a risky strategy if they just received > 900 million USD from Qualcomm which would cover the costs? Could it not be that Prem Watsa decides over the next year if he'll convert the bonds into shares? Which should then trigger JC to either preserve cash for when the bonds expire or to buy back shares in the open market to offset the dilution if the bonds are converted into shares, which should in theory have the same effect? It doesn't seem realistic that he will AND buy back shares to offset the entire dilution caused by the bonds AND preserve cash for when the bonds reach maturity and they're not converted AND do a significant acquisition (+/- 600 million USD)?





    Posted via CB10
    That's correct, he was only approved for 31 MM shares this year using 200 business days he can purchase 1.5 MM per day which is a lot of stock for sure. Again, 70 MM shares over 3 years will kill that dilution. The problem is, if you are a Fund Manager, you have to listen to the CEO and assume he will do the most conservative changes that he talks about at any given time. So the Funds will back out enough cash for not only the share buyback program, they will look at the bond redemption too. My thought was, "why would you even do that, why not deal with the only material owner of those bonds". I think he could work out something with Prem and take a more proactive approach to tying up all of that money.

    He is literally buying a tech company called BlackBerry with the largest purchase he has ever done now. So I would like him to talk about why it is important to own BBRY today versus a multitude of other companies on the market that could provide synergies, profits, revenues etc.. I'm not saying he shouldn't spend up to $ 750 MM on BBRY, I'm wondering how he arrived at this investment versus everything else. I don't think I'm alone as it will look silly if 3 years from now the stock is still under $ 10.00.

    He knows more about BlackBerry and where it is going then anybody else. So explain to me how he feels so comfortable tying up $ 1.4 B in cash for Prem? I would like to think that Chen thinks BBRY "it is super cheap right now" and everything else is expensive in comparison. That's cool with me along as he has a sound game plan here. If he plans on winning more lawsuits, that's a sketchy thing but certainly possible. I think there is a better way to go about committing so much money to one task. The problem with the buyback program to overt dilution is that it must happen over three years close to $ 10.00 or it doesn't make sense. I do not want this stock stalled out at $ 10.00 so that he is motivated to buy it daily. I would like him "to buy the stock as long as it is near the exercise price", that works for me so I think he needs to say more about his intentions here. If he said, "boy, if this stock stays down here at $ 10.00/shr we are going to retire a bus load of this stuff". The stock would never see $ 10.00 again on that inference.

    Funds see this as the loss of a major safety net so they run from the investment because it is premised on the fact that those bonds will convert and in order for that to happen, the company must do very well indeed. When you take away lots of cash by purchasing a company that doesn't perform as planned, and costs you money to support it for a couple of years, you have a major problem brewing now. All of this uncertainty for Prem.

    Buying back stock from anyone and retiring bonds are two different things. You need money to retire stock and you need additional money to pay Prem back they aren't the same operation. You end up with a much smaller float for doing two independent things over time.
    06-23-17 02:09 PM
  7. rarsen's Avatar
    Some OT from Security files, where several are in need of some robust security protection. Wouldn't they prefer a worry free weekend if they had properly chosen from a more reputable Security company:

    Virgin Media tells 800,000 customers to change passwords after routers found vulnerable to hackers | ZDNet

    Microsoft says 'no known ransomware' runs on Windows 10 S — so we tried to hack it | ZDNet

    Beware this Android banking malware posing as a software update | ZDNet
    06-23-17 02:12 PM
  8. world traveler and former ceo's Avatar
    That's correct, he was only approved for 31 MM shares this year using 200 business days he can purchase 1.5 MM per day which is a lot of stock for sure. Again, 70 MM shares over 3 years will kill that dilution. The problem is, if you are a Fund Manager, you have to listen to the CEO and assume he will do the most conservative changes that he talks about at any given time. So the Funds will back out enough cash for not only the share buyback program, they will look at the bond redemption too. My thought was, "why would you even do that, why not deal with the only material owner of those bonds". I think he could work out something with Prem and take a more proactive approach to tying up all of that money.

    He is literally buying a tech company called BlackBerry with the largest purchase he has ever done now. So I would like him to talk about why it is important to own BBRY today versus a multitude of other companies on the market that could provide synergies, profits, revenues etc.. I'm not saying he shouldn't spend up to $ 750 MM on BBRY, I'm wondering how he arrived at this investment versus everything else. I don't think I'm alone as it will look silly if 3 years from now the stock is still under $ 10.00.

    He knows more about BlackBerry and where it is going then anybody else. So explain to me how he feels so comfortable tying up $ 1.4 B in cash for Prem? I would like to think that Chen thinks BBRY "it is super cheap right now" and everything else is expensive in comparison. That's cool with me along as he has a sound game plan here. If he plans on winning more lawsuits, that's a sketchy thing but certainly possible. I think there is a better way to go about committing so much money to one task. The problem with the buyback program to overt dilution is that it must happen over three years close to $ 10.00 or it doesn't make sense. I do not want this stock stalled out at $ 10.00 so that he is motivated to buy it daily. I would like him "to buy the stock as long as it is near the exercise price", that works for me so I think he needs to say more about his intentions here. If he said, "boy, if this stock stays down here at $ 10.00/shr we are going to retire a bus load of this stuff". The stock would never see $ 10.00 again on that inference.

    Funds see this as the loss of a major safety net so they run from the investment because it is premised on the fact that those bonds will convert and in order for that to happen, the company must do very well indeed. When you take away lots of cash by purchasing a company that doesn't perform as planned, and costs you money to support it for a couple of years, you have a major problem brewing now. All of this uncertainty for Prem.

    Buying back stock from anyone and retiring bonds are two different things. You need money to retire stock and you need additional money to pay Prem back they aren't the same operation. You end up with a much smaller float for doing two independent things over time.
    Corbu.. what M8 just said I would like sent in its entirety to your BlackBerry contact for response!!!

    Posted via CB10
    06-23-17 02:19 PM
  9. FeitaInc's Avatar
    Corbu, it would be great if you can ask him if he could bring Chris Lattner onboard.
    Corbu likes this.
    06-23-17 03:04 PM
  10. Corbu's Avatar
    Corbu, it would be great if you can ask him if he could bring Chris Lattner onboard.
    Wouldn't that be awesome? Always room for brilliant people, right?

    And wouldn't it be nice for us to hear, one day, of some sort of Tesla-BBRY connection?

    As for what we learned today, I am curious to know more about what JC was referring to in terms of future prospects for "machine learning, as related to cyber-security"...
    Superfly_FR and rarsen like this.
    06-23-17 03:22 PM
  11. Corbu's Avatar
    Today's Earnings Call transcript:
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/408...pt?part=single

    For those who want to go over the "good news" again...
    rarsen likes this.
    06-23-17 03:37 PM
  12. FeitaInc's Avatar
    And wouldn't it be nice for us to hear, one day, of some sort of Tesla-BBRY connection?
    if the plan is to bring Tesla onboard, I don't think the best guy for that job is Chris seeing as he and Elon Musk agreed that they didn't work well together. :P

    in other news, I'm kind of curious what JC means when he says that BB provides software to the licensees. when android O comes out, will TCL do the nougat -> O, while BB adds their secret sauce (aka hardened kernel etc)?

    and what about PRIV + DTEK?
    Corbu and app_Developer like this.
    06-23-17 03:55 PM
  13. _dimi_'s Avatar
    Hi Morgan,


    As I'm sure you know, I entirely misinterpreted your first posts. I feel like an ***** sometimes! But when you come up with such a clear explanation of things that would probably take me a few more years to unravel/comprehend on my own... and I actually feel like I understand every detail you've outlined in the explanation v2... I feel pretty clever! Thanks for that, LOL!



    Posted via CB10
    06-23-17 03:59 PM
  14. morganplus8's Avatar
    Hi Morgan,


    As I'm sure you know, I entirely misinterpreted your first posts. I feel like an ***** sometimes! But when you come up with such a clear explanation of things that would probably take me a few more years to unravel/comprehend on my own... and I actually feel like I understand every detail you've outlined in the explanation v2... I feel pretty clever! Thanks for that, LOL!



    Posted via CB10
    Hi _dimi_ !!

    I'm not sure if I know what I'm trying to say sometimes myself! To me it is simple, you don't tell the world you are buying "31 MM shares ..... or maybe not". They managed to get approval for 31 MM shares at 347,000/day on the TSX which amounts to 90 days to cover. Fine, so will they buy a single share or not? We won't know for sometime. I want Chen and company to be far more forthcoming, and transparent on what their intentions are.

    A statement to the effect that "we are starting our stock retirement program this coming Tuesday, June 27th with a purchase of the maximum allowable amount of 347,000 shares and we will continue to make similar purchases as long as the stock trades below $ 10.50/shr." Now everyone knows that the TD Bank "trader 53" is active on the BB.TO post each day (electronically speaking!) and it is transparent by broker number etc.. That's what you call making a statement.

    Instead of telling us it is a counter measure for stock dilution purposes, simply state that we are buying/retiring those shares. We all know already that Prem cannot take up the exercise of those bonds in 3 years time. His Fund won't be able to take on those shares as common stock. There is a 100% chance that John and Prem will sit down and work out an extension to the bond issue for 3 more years at the same yield. Prem won't be holding onto 93 MM shares of BBRY anytime soon.

    So use the money now, put us through the hell of waiting for the stock to go up, so that with certainty, they can spend the next 90 days fulfilling the order for 31 MM shares and then let's grow the company. Don't tell us you aren't growing the business until the back end of the Fiscal year, then give us a story about how you "might" buy some shares going forward and ask us to sit on our investment forever. I don't want to wait for the next ER, find out they purchased $ 5,000,000 worth of stock and now we are looking at another quarter before we can really start to see some traction. The number one focus should be growing the business not a share buyback program that may or may not happen. They have a history of issuing these share buyback orders and never coming close to filling them.

    In summary, promise me you will spend the next 90 days retiring 31 MM shares at $ 10.00 and I'll go boating and see you in the Fall. Get it done.

    That's my rant for today, I'm in need of a libation to make me forget how that ER went down!
    Last edited by morganplus8; 06-23-17 at 05:19 PM.
    Corbu, rarsen, bbjdog and 3 others like this.
    06-23-17 04:55 PM
  15. Rico4you's Avatar
    Hello all
    What's your take on this..
    http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-r...term=mobileweb

    Posted via CB10
    06-23-17 05:44 PM
  16. Corbu's Avatar
    This, Morgan:

    So use the money now, put us through the hell of waiting for the stock to go up, so that with certainty, they can spend the next 90 days fulfilling the order for 31 MM shares and then let's grow the company. Don't tell us you aren't growing the business until the back end of the Fiscal year, then give us a story about how you "might" buy some shares going forward and ask us to sit on our investment forever. I don't want to wait for the next ER, find out they purchased $ 5,000,000 worth of stock and now we are looking at another quarter before we can really start to see some traction. The number one focus should be growing the business not a share buyback program that may or may not happen. They have a history of issuing these share buyback orders and never coming close to filling them.
    morganplus8 and rarsen like this.
    06-23-17 06:10 PM
  17. app_Developer's Avatar
    I'm disappointed in the results, but I don't feel as negatively as that market apparently does. I guess it helps that my expectations for BBRY are solidly medium, so I'm not shocked to see a few missteps along the way.

    My biggest concern is transparency. I watched a Chen interview posted earlier and listened to the call. Honestly, I'm not so sure I'd buy a car from this guy today. There is a serious lack of transparency here and that, again, is my biggest worry.

    The rest of it I can deal with. Yes SAF fell faster than expected. That business is dying. Absolutely no surprise there.

    Phone business is dead. Already knew that.

    The car business will take time to develop. Their current car business is tiny in $. Already knew that also.

    So I'm not that upset, and I'm not selling.
    kadakn01 and markmall like this.
    06-23-17 06:17 PM
  18. DaSchwantz's Avatar
    not sure what all the concern is with the buyback...acquisitions are expensive right now...Prem will likely start converting / selling over the next 3 years when sp is high, Chen will buy back when sp is low...expect things to be range bound for a while until there is news or a stronger growth trajectory.
    dusdal likes this.
    06-23-17 06:53 PM
  19. dalinxz's Avatar
    Hi Morgan,


    Just to clarify: they are buying back shares (initially a confirmed 30 million shares) to protect shareholders against more dilution (due to compensation packages and potentially the bond that might be converted into +/- 60 million additional shares). So in theory they would have to buy back 70 million shares to offset at least the dilution from the bonds and the compensation package approved for FY2018?

    It's not exactly clear to me how BlackBerry acquiring a tech company worth +/- 600 million USD (this is just an assumption?) and the additional 300 million USD worth of shares in the open market, is a risky strategy if they just received > 900 million USD from Qualcomm which would cover the costs? Could it not be that Prem Watsa decides over the next year if he'll convert the bonds into shares? Which should then trigger JC to either preserve cash for when the bonds expire or to buy back shares in the open market to offset the dilution if the bonds are converted into shares, which should in theory have the same effect? It doesn't seem realistic that he will AND buy back shares to offset the entire dilution caused by the bonds AND preserve cash for when the bonds reach maturity and they're not converted AND do a significant acquisition (+/- 600 million USD)?





    Posted via CB10
    What might also be a worthy consideration; BlackBerry might still move ahead with M&A activity with other financing agreements (notes payable) at some point in the future. Better to use current funds to protect and recover share value while it's where it is, rather than paying substantially more later on down the road, and increasing Prem's interests in sp appreciation and protection that he will be repaid. We should remember that Prem and ins. Co's own substantial shares. Chen is drawing up a perfect storm. Very carefully planted and chosen words today, to get things going in his direction.

    I'm impressed with where the company is, a bit slow on execution but we'll suited to build out distribution channel at this point. Clear and focused image, with the noise subsided. They never would get out of market clout had they remained in the handset business. Licensing revenue possibility is massive. BlackBerry in everything, fridges, thermostats, protecting all lot devices. But B2B vs. B2C, they will be a wholesaler of security services. Qnx in everything.
    Bacon Munchers and alludba like this.
    06-23-17 07:05 PM
  20. dalinxz's Avatar
    That's correct, he was only approved for 31 MM shares this year using 200 business days he can purchase 1.5 MM per day which is a lot of stock for sure. Again, 70 MM shares over 3 years will kill that dilution. The problem is, if you are a Fund Manager, you have to listen to the CEO and assume he will do the most conservative changes that he talks about at any given time. So the Funds will back out enough cash for not only the share buyback program, they will look at the bond redemption too. My thought was, "why would you even do that, why not deal with the only material owner of those bonds". I think he could work out something with Prem and take a more proactive approach to tying up all of that money.

    He is literally buying a tech company called BlackBerry with the largest purchase he has ever done now. So I would like him to talk about why it is important to own BBRY today versus a multitude of other companies on the market that could provide synergies, profits, revenues etc.. I'm not saying he shouldn't spend up to $ 750 MM on BBRY, I'm wondering how he arrived at this investment versus everything else. I don't think I'm alone as it will look silly if 3 years from now the stock is still under $ 10.00.

    He knows more about BlackBerry and where it is going then anybody else. So explain to me how he feels so comfortable tying up $ 1.4 B in cash for Prem? I would like to think that Chen thinks BBRY "it is super cheap right now" and everything else is expensive in comparison. That's cool with me along as he has a sound game plan here. If he plans on winning more lawsuits, that's a sketchy thing but certainly possible. I think there is a better way to go about committing so much money to one task. The problem with the buyback program to overt dilution is that it must happen over three years close to $ 10.00 or it doesn't make sense. I do not want this stock stalled out at $ 10.00 so that he is motivated to buy it daily. I would like him "to buy the stock as long as it is near the exercise price", that works for me so I think he needs to say more about his intentions here. If he said, "boy, if this stock stays down here at $ 10.00/shr we are going to retire a bus load of this stuff". The stock would never see $ 10.00 again on that inference.

    Funds see this as the loss of a major safety net so they run from the investment because it is premised on the fact that those bonds will convert and in order for that to happen, the company must do very well indeed. When you take away lots of cash by purchasing a company that doesn't perform as planned, and costs you money to support it for a couple of years, you have a major problem brewing now. All of this uncertainty for Prem.

    Buying back stock from anyone and retiring bonds are two different things. You need money to retire stock and you need additional money to pay Prem back they aren't the same operation. You end up with a much smaller float for doing two independent things over time.
    The idea of them keeping the buyback going at anything under $10 also gives them the ability to make money on the debentures (in a way - discounting share for share what they get, not considering interest) this in effect gives the SP a floor, shorts would be disserviced to short below 10 because BlackBerry would likely compete for those shares in buying them back in order to get discounted shares per the funds received from the debenture
    06-23-17 07:14 PM
  21. DaSchwantz's Avatar
    Re...new floor . . . yes, will reaccumulate my prior position once that is clear
    06-23-17 07:26 PM
  22. Corbu's Avatar
    06-23-17 07:26 PM
  23. dalinxz's Avatar
    Re...new floor . . . yes, will reaccumulate my prior position once that is clear
    Need to consider many longs in the stock are buyers and sellers, day trading to capture swings. As more buyers enter and hold into BlackBerry and the attention returns and volume increases on the daily for long term holding, we'll see an Apple-esque rise
    Bacon Munchers likes this.
    06-23-17 07:31 PM
  24. dalinxz's Avatar
    What the market is saying about BlackBerry is that the share buyback is too late, and they missed the run, what BlackBerry is saying is that the run is just about to get started
    Superfly_FR likes this.
    06-23-17 07:48 PM
  25. world traveler and former ceo's Avatar
    What the market is saying about BlackBerry is that the share buyback is too late, and they missed the run, what BlackBerry is saying is that the run is just about to get started
    Seems to me short term, Longs can only hope for IP win announcements... otherwise shorts just totally having their way...

    Posted via CB10
    06-23-17 08:04 PM
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