[anon(757282)]

FU to 13 and 14. Let's move up beyond 16 into the 20s. If you haven't bought yet, you missed the bus. We need to move this stock higher! FU to shorts too. Long is the thing.
Have a nice day.

[ipaqman]

hi morgan

where have you been?

looking for your insight based on recent trading.

as always appreciated by everyone.

ipaq.

[EvanRitch]

Remember to vote for BlackBerry in the money madness poll on CNBC gotta beat Nokia

[Markymark 23]

You're not that far off from your purchase price right now. You did just fine seeing that the share prices WILL go up eventually and be over $50 next year (my opinion). So the few cents or dollars off right now is cheap change.

Yeah that's about the only thing keeping me going right now. Would have been fun to be up just a couple of days, christ....even 1 day...for a change. Oh well, I DO have faith in the longer term but a little divine intervention wouldn't hurt right about now lol.

[erodenero]

FU to 13 and 14. Let's move up beyond 16 into the 20s. If you haven't bought yet, you missed the bus. We need to move this stock higher! FU to shorts too. Long is the thing.
Have a nice day.

Yes FU to shorts indeed..they gotta cover sometime

[erodenero]

hi morgan

where have you been?

looking for your insight based on recent trading.

as always appreciated by everyone.

ipaq.

+100

[DragonFlyer]

Remember to vote for BlackBerry in the money madness poll on CNBC gotta beat Nokia

link please

[AlexejKir]

whole market is in red, BBRY is doing quite well to actually stay pretty close to 15$. And the fact we still managed to hold support 14,80ish is even better. All good.

[snejpa]

link please

Vote! BlackBerry vs. Nokia—Which Stock Wins From Here?

[Shanerredflag]

Yuppers...hope we get a bit of money in the final couple hours. There has gotta be a bunch of people looking for a place to put some money for a short term gain (ER) till things settle down.

Posted via CB10

[morganplus8]

Here is a quick chart of our trading range for the past few months:



As you already know, we aren't making any progress here, we are sliding down the downtrend line towards earnings next week. The volume is drying up and the recent highs are lower each day. The lows are firming up too. We need some concrete news and we aren't likely to get that until Heins talks again. The 5-dma jumped strongly over night and that placed us under it for most of today, still we didn't sell off here, so, we'll probably regain it tomorrow when it drops back and goes flat.

The news sucked today, did everyone read:
BlackBerry to Struggle for Market Share and 2 Hot Stocks to Watch | Wall St. Cheat Sheet

"BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY): This week, Gartner predicted that BlackBerry will not have the potential to reach a 5 percent share of the global smartphone market until 2016 at the earliest, which only underscores the difficulty that the company will face to significantly expand as both Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Samsung (SSNLF.PK) dominate the competitive landscape. Furthermore, Gartner does not believe that reaching a 5 percent market share is even a guarantee, as it recommends that companies hold off on investing in BlackBerry Enterprise Service 10 as a mobile device management platform “until the market makes a clear statement on BB10′s success (or lack thereof).”

This kind of crap doesn't help and the stock dropped below $ 14.92/shr when it came out. The same site then came out with another major bash a few minutes later. None of this helps the stock. As for the 3,000,000 share block last night, it was probably just a transfer between accounts at the same firm. Nothing there.

I do see something of a rally happening going into next week here, but we are lucky to be even holding $ 15.00 right now though as the trade isn't strong here. The stock could pop at any moment as the 1,000,000 phone order makes for great support in here. With the declining highs the last four days, we could be setting up for a move here. I must say, this is the first time I have witnessed a stock turn bullish and fall flat instantly. Strange behaviour going on here. GL

PS. Some good charting hitting this thread for last night, keep up the good work gents!

[DragonFlyer]

whole market is in red, BBRY is doing quite well to actually stay pretty close to 15$. And the fact we still managed to hold support 14,80ish is even better. All good.

I'm having a weird day. All my stocks are in the green except this one.
Was expecting the opposite.
I think it will still finish in the green.

[Superfly_FR]

Hello StockBerrians !
So you cannot resist ticking the stock minute by minute, he ?
I know that feeling.

Too busy for that right now, but look, we're still in the $15 range
Stay calm, buddies. It's a long run and March 28 is nothing but a checkpoint, important, but just that: a checkpoint.

[Superfly_FR]

@Morganplus8 : thanks ! (I'm out of button, again)

[bigbbrybeliever]

Seem that there is no actual trades but robot trading. Boring...

[OMGitworks]

So, the Strike is the estimated share value at a given time?? For March 28 they have $14-$16.50?? And for June and September the same??
That can't be right... tell me what I'm doing wrong....

You are right, there are all sorts of investments or bets you can make. They sell in the money calls the right to buy shares at a given price which is below the current stock price. They sell out of the money calls, the right to buy stock for as set price above the current price. The price of each option contract (100 share blocks) reflects the time and price of expiration,. Normally longer dated options are more expensive as the risk is greater and there is more time for the stock to rise. There are a million different strategies and remember people are also selling those call options so they collect a premium for that and have to sell the shares at that price when the option expires. If they expire worthless then they gain the entire premium. Time erodes the value of options. For your example the April 2013's calls, 15 strike price are $1.12 but the Sept 2013 are $3.10 per contract. Hope this not more confusing than its worth....

[lcjr]

FU to 13 and 14. Let's move up beyond 16 into the 20s. If you haven't bought yet, you missed the bus. We need to move this stock higher! FU to shorts too. Long is the thing.
Have a nice day.

Woohoo!! Somebody besides me ready to get the elevator going up already....

[lcjr]

where's Dude? We could use some humorous trolling right about now...

Don't make me release the troll hunter again.. Besides, I think he only comes out when the stock is doing really really bad...

[Zarpan]

Strong start for z10 in indonesia with some encouraging forecasts:

"The research note said industry feedback suggested the initial reaction to Z10 was strong, with unit sales expected to reach 100,000 over the next six months. "Leading retailer Erajaya has already sold almost all of its 19,000 units allocated and is trying to secure additional stock. Rising smartphone adoption (currently around 15 percent) is a key driver for our positive sector thesis."

Indonesia's biggest cellular provider Telkomsel, a unit of PT Telkom, expects its BlackBerry subscriber base to grow to 40 percent in 2013 while Indosat has the most aggressive data pricing among major operators, with 11 rupiah per megabyte (MB), the note said.
STOCKS NEWS INDONESIA-New BlackBerry model to boost telcos' data revenue - Macquarie

I'd actually say that the research note significantly underestimates the forecast numbers for Indonesia. Erajaya has around 25% market share of handset sales in Indonesia. If they've sold nearly 19,000 units within a few days of launch, the total numbers for Indonesia so far could be around 70-80,000 units.

I suspect the quote about unit sales over the next six months might have been taken from a projection for Erajaya. It seems pretty odd to sell 70,000 units (including preorders) in 4 days and then expect to only sell another 30,000 over 6 months. Makes more sense if Erajaya expected 100,000 units over 6 months. That would imply Indonesian sales to be around 400,000 over 6 months.

[bigbbrybeliever]

"BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY): This week, Gartner predicted that BlackBerry will not have the potential to reach a 5 percent share of the global smartphone market until 2016 at the earliest, which only underscores the difficulty that the company will face to significantly expand as both Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Samsung (SSNLF.PK) dominate the competitive landscape. Furthermore, Gartner does not believe that reaching a 5 percent market share is even a guarantee, as it recommends that companies hold off on investing in BlackBerry Enterprise Service 10 as a mobile device management platform “until the market makes a clear statement on BB10′s success (or lack thereof).”

Morgan,
Even we assume that the bear prediction were true that BBRY would have 5% smartphone market worldwide in 2016 (three year from now). IDC itself projects that the total smartphone market in 2016 will be around 1.2 billion handsets. So 5% will be 60 million BB phones or 15 million phone / quarter.
In the best quarter of the past, BBRY sold around 14.5 million phones, when the stock price was at $147. In other words, even based on the opinion from the bear camp, the stock price will be above $100 in three years, that is more than 700% increase from the current price.
I am sure, BBRY can do much better than that.
So cheers.

[DragonFlyer]

Woohoo!! Somebody besides me ready to get the elevator going up already....

If this elevator doesn't get moving soon, I'm gonna take the stairs.
Translation - I'm going to read Calls and Puts for dummies this weekend.

[Zarpan]

For what it's worth, two years ago (April 2011) Gartner predicted that RIM/BlackBerry would have a 13% market share in 2012, and an 11% market share in 2015. They also predicted Windows Mobile to have 11% share in 2012 and 20% in 2015.

They have enough trouble being accurate for the next year, let alone 3 years down the road.

[take99]

I'd actually say that the research note significantly underestimates the forecast numbers for Indonesia. Erajaya has around 25% market share of handset sales in Indonesia. If they've sold nearly 19,000 units within a few days of launch, the total numbers for Indonesia so far could be around 70-80,000 units.

I suspect the quote about unit sales over the next six months might have been taken from a projection for Erajaya. It seems pretty odd to sell 70,000 units (including preorders) in 4 days and then expect to only sell another 30,000 over 6 months. Makes more sense if Erajaya expected 100,000 units over 6 months. That would imply Indonesian sales to be around 400,000 over 6 months.

Thanks for the insight Zarpan, any clue as to how big a bb base Telkomsel has so we can calculate the numbers of the 40% increase they expect this year?

[Shanerredflag]

Vote! BlackBerry vs. Nokia—Which Stock Wins From Here?

Edit...I cannot believe the overwhelming negative BS...are we the only ones who understand how truly fickle device customers are and they will welcome a change from the same old OS that’s been dominant for the past three years? Or are we fooling ourselves?

[Zarpan]

Thanks for the insight Zarpan, any clue as to how big a bb base Telkomsel has so we can calculate the numbers of the 40% increase they expect this year?

Apparently 5.8 million BlackBerry subscribers for Telkomsel, so a 40% increase would be an additional 2.3 million.

Source: Telkomsel Moves 3,000 BlackBerry Z10s a Week After Launch | The Jakarta Globe