View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1106. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    [QUOTE=JLagoon;8149672]Here is my interpretation of the chart, after today closing bell.
    Attachment 142138
    When the market opened, it started to go down. It managed to rebound around $14.66 - $14.78 strongly with 1 bar of break out. If there were two, then it would have continued within the channel from the past 2 break outs. From the 1 bar break out, it went down half way of the bar, until around lunch time to ramp up approaching 1/4th of the break out bar. Now, so far, it closed at $15.02, and AH low is $14.95. $14.95 - $15.05 range is support 1. If this breaks, then support 2 is $14.68. If this breaks, then we are back to the symmetrical triangle channel that Morgan highlights, which is not good, because it will go down even further.

    My thoughts on the possible scenarios for tomorrow: 1. It will touch $14.68 tomorrow, and goes even further down to $14.30 range *shudders*. 2. It will hold above support 1 ($14.95 - $15.05) in the morning, consolidate, and do 1 break out bar to $15.81. 3. It will hold above support 1, and do 2 break out bars to $16.48.

    The reasoning is that the chart seems to show multiple cups as shown below. We are possibly in the stage of completing a handle that, if it will do scenario 2 tomorrow, then it will mean that a handle will be created, and it may proceed with scenario 3 to complete another cup of which the price target would be $18.41.

    I don't have any strong feeling of which scenario will happen. Something seems to be going on with having an AH that has almost 4 million shares traded (high $15.20, low $14.95).

    Thoughts?

    Yikes! That RSI Is high!!!!
    03-18-13 06:30 PM
  2. leafs123's Avatar
    Started a new job today and it was the first time where I didn't look at the stock all day as I was in training. Also not visiting this thread until later in the evening, I feel like I have missed so much. You guys are great, keep it up!
    03-18-13 06:44 PM
  3. erodenero's Avatar
    Started a new job today and it was the first time where I didn't look at the stock all day as I was in training. Also not visiting this thread until later in the evening, I feel like I have missed so much. You guys are great, keep it up!
    congrats on the new job!
    Superfly_FR and leafs123 like this.
    03-18-13 06:53 PM
  4. bungaboy's Avatar
    Started a new job today and it was the first time where I didn't look at the stock all day as I was in training. Also not visiting this thread until later in the evening, I feel like I have missed so much. You guys are great, keep it up!
    Hope your new job is great.
    leafs123 likes this.
    03-18-13 06:54 PM
  5. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-bb-today.png

    This is BB/TSX...RSI is not very high at all (70 is considered strong sell) MACD is promising and our break out level is 15.98...in real terms it's higher than that, somewhere in the 16.15 range but a close in the high 15's would set us up nicely I think.
    03-18-13 06:58 PM
  6. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    [QUOTE=Shanerredflag

    This is BB/TSX...RSI is not very high at all (70 is considered strong sell) MACD is promising and our break out level is 15.98...in real terms it's higher than that, somewhere in the 16.15 range but a close in the high 15's would set us up nicely I think.[/QUOTE]

    Nice. Those Bollinger Bands are a little tighter too.

    $16 tomorrow?
    03-18-13 07:00 PM
  7. JLagoon's Avatar
    Based on my analysis of the chart, although the RSI is quite high around 70, this could fluctuate between 70 - 90 in the next few days. It could also drop to 20. If we take into account the MACD, then the PPS could reach $13.40 range again. $15 seems to provide good support so far though, so if it would hold this support level tomorrow, then there could be another break out.

    I can't wait to read Morgan's perspective in particular.
    Shanerredflag likes this.
    03-18-13 07:16 PM
  8. lcjr's Avatar
    I'm still interested in seeing what that large purchase (3000,000) does to the shares tomorrow.
    03-18-13 07:25 PM
  9. _dimi_'s Avatar
    Based on my analysis of the chart, although the RSI is quite high around 70, this could fluctuate between 70 - 90 in the next few days. It could also drop to 20. If we take into account the MACD, then the PPS could reach $13.40 range again. $15 seems to provide good support so far though, so if it would hold this support level tomorrow, then there could be another break out.

    I can't wait to read Morgan's perspective in particular.
    So RSI could fluctuate between 20 and 90 over the next few days? That seems about right.

    Don't bet on it hitting 20 though.. I think some of us would be running for the exit if that were the case
    03-18-13 07:31 PM
  10. rampagingpanda's Avatar
    Seriously dude, don't set your expectations too high. To make 18 look cheap, you'd need to see a company that executed a complete turnaround, far outstripping all street expectations. BBRY has repeatedly said that this is a long road - don't expect miracles, even in the case of good results. We're much more likely to think of 18 as "cheap" 2 or even 3 quarters out.

    By "cheap" I mean BBRY hitting the $22-23 range. BlackBerry by no means (IMHO and well look at the Book Value, etc) is expensive at this point in time. Sure in the past few months, it has risen over 100%, but this doesn't mean it's expensive. BBRY has been so downplayed, ****ted on, that even a slight beat, a slight surprise would make the shorts run. In my belief, BBRY is significantly undervalued, and with such low expectations on the table by these "analysts", I expect to see a fun ER on March 28 especially with all these "hints" Thorsten has been throwing out in his interviews.

    PS: By no means am I blind-sided by my own views, and bullishness on BBRY, obviously it is possible for BBRY to not beat the expectations presented. I'm insured by puts, that will zero-out my investment, in the event that BBRY doesn't surprise us. In my current view, its much riskier to be short. Such an opportunity does not present itself regularly, and I'm placing my bets where the odds are with me.


    Disclosure: I'm long on BBRY, with Calls, and insured via Puts.
    03-18-13 07:33 PM
  11. Alexander Tran's Avatar
    Hi everyone,
    Here's my technical analysis on Blackberry. Despite the low volume today, we managed to stay within the boundaries of the intra-week channel. However, what makes me uncomfortable is that we are on the border line of the down line which gives us two possible scenarios
    1) We hold the 15 area and we continue to rally towards 16,17.20, and 18.30 resistance area
    2) We break below 14.80 which will send us back into the symmetrical triangle to the 13s again
    Theres no strong signal so far from indicators, it can easily favor either side. So tomorrow would be an interesting one. Although I do hope that we stay within the channel, because this means that we could possibly be in the 18s for ER

    Well, that was my two cents. I wish everyone luck tomorrrow!

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-bbry-3-18b.png
    03-18-13 07:35 PM
  12. JLagoon's Avatar
    Heheh, I mean, given the recent series of break out and retracements, it could happen at any minute. And it would only take 2 - 3 minutes to complete the drop from 90 - 20. It seems so far, it takes almost 2 trading days for a retracement to complete, before having another break out. Earlier today was an example of the pattern, even though it wasn't as big as the previous two--perhaps this is related to making the cups and handles that I mentioned earlier. So far though, I think, we could test $16, a few days, before ER.

    So RSI could fluctuate between 20 and 90 over the next few days? That seems about right.

    Don't bet on it hitting 20 though.. I think some of us would be running for the exit if that were the case
    bungaboy and Shanerredflag like this.
    03-18-13 07:46 PM
  13. lcjr's Avatar
    Started a new job today and it was the first time where I didn't look at the stock all day as I was in training. Also not visiting this thread until later in the evening, I feel like I have missed so much. You guys are great, keep it up!
    That's awesome friend. Congrats. I'm looking for a new job as well so I can get out of this awefull town called El Paso. I'm trying to get to Colorado Springs where my daughters are. Maybe if I strike it rich with these shares I can retire early??
    03-18-13 07:47 PM
  14. DragonFlyer's Avatar
    Francis Chou

    Francis Chous four stock buys of the past six months have returned 46.5% on average. One of the largest gainers is Research In Motion (BBRY), whose price has increased 109% from the average price of $7 per share at which he purchased 200,000 shares in the third quarter. The purchase is less than 1% of his portfolio.

    Chou has said, You wont find bargains unless there is a stink or cloud (financial or otherwise) overhanging the stock. We carefully analyze the company and if our analysis indicates that the stock price has more than fully discounted the problem, we hold our nose and may purchase the stock. Research In Motion has faced an onslaught of competition against its one-time transformative BlackBerry smartphone, which dragged its five-year stock price down more than 85% before Chou purchased it.

    After years of growth, Research In Motion in the quarter ended Dec. 1, 2012, reported 47% year-over-year shrinkage in revenue to $2.7 billion, and an adjusted net loss of $114 million, or $0.22 per diluted share, which excluded the impact of pre-tax charges for cost reduction actions, compared to a net gain of $265 million, or $0.51 per diluted share, a year previously.

    However, the company increased its cash position in the quarter to more than $2.9 billion and generated $950 million in cash flow from operations.

    BlackBerry was expecting pressure on results as it set to launch its new phone, the BlackBerry 10, which it did in 2013. BlackBerrys CEO, Thorsten Heins, announced that Feb. 5 was the best first day ever for sales of a BlackBerry smartphone, and 50% better than any of its other launches in Canada. Its sales in the UK were three times higher than its previous best performance for a first week of smartphone sales.

    BlackBerry 10 sales numbers have not been released yet, but the company on March 14 announced that one of its partners had ordered 1 million of the smartphones for immediate shipment the highest order in the companys history. Fourth quarter results are scheduled to be announced on March 28.

    BlackBerry as of Monday has a P/E of 6.8, P/B of 0.84 and P/S of 0.63.

    Francis Chou's Profile:

    Francis Chou, the fund manager of Chou America Mutual Funds, has been managing the Chou Funds in Canada since 1986.
    Francis Chou's experience is an amazing success story of value investing. He came to Canada in 1976 at age 20 with $200 in his pocket. Without a college degree, he could only work on blue collar jobs. Finally he landed a job at Bell Canada as a telephone repairman. Somehow he was introduced to the books of Benjamin Graham. As written by Warren Buffett in his famous article, The Superinvestors of Graham-and--Doddsville, "It is extraordinary to me that the idea of buying dollar bills for 40 cents takes immediately to people or it doesn't take at all." The idea apparently took Francis Chou immediately.
    In 1981, together with six of his fellow telephone repairmen, Francis Chou started an investment club with $51,000. He left Bell Canada in 1984 and became a retail analyst at GW Asset Management, where he met Prem Watsa, the great future Fairfax CEO. He turned the investment club into Chou Associates Fund in 1986.
    The rest is history. If you had invested $10,000 in 1986, when Chou Associate Fund started to operate, that $10,000 would be worth $136,916 as of Dec. 31, 2010. During the 24 years of the fund's history, he had only five down years. Over the past 15 years, Chou Associate Fund average gained 13.6%, while the S&P 500 gained just 6.8% a year.
    When asked about what the most important things are for him in investing, he said: "Buy bargains. Get the returns slowly. Think independently. Don't be afraid of what other people are saying."
    This is exactly what he has done. In the 1990s, during the height of the tech bubble, Francis Chou wrote to his shareholders that he had "no concrete idea of where to proceed from here." He said the market at that time was a fool's game where investors were buying stocks trading at 100 times revenues in the hope of being able to to sell them for 200 times revenues a week later. His fund was down in 1999.
    As the stock market made its first crash from 2000 through 2002, Chou Associate Fund gained 71%. By 2006, his fund gained 160% while the broad market just barely broke even from its high at the beginning of 2000.
    03-18-13 09:08 PM
  15. OMGitworks's Avatar
    I think people are misinterpreting this chart. This is not by quarter. This is by how well the Z10 sells this quarter. So basically he says if bbry can sell around 1300 this quarter their eps will be .02 and show a profit.
    I got it, but if his ASP is way off , as it appears to be, then his revenue is off and it cuts his EPS by 10-15c per estimate. No big deal, we will all know soon enough but it does show that anyone doing a work up has to use estimates or assumptions and sometimes they require more estimating than others. In this case the apparent error is a major flaw in his analysis. He my have a basis for his ASP but I can't seem to reconcile it with what public info we have.
    03-18-13 09:18 PM
  16. morlock_man's Avatar
    I'm still interested in seeing what that large purchase (3000,000) does to the shares tomorrow.
    You'd think it would be a big signal for tomorrow's trading.
    03-18-13 09:33 PM
  17. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    I love the bit of holding your nose and it's likely a good pick DragonFlyer ...nice find. All I can contribute is:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/19/sp...re-dating.html

    Has nothing at all to do with our favorite stock but as a person involved for decades in alpine racing I just love Lindsey and thought I would (wood) share lol.
    DragonFlyer likes this.
    03-18-13 09:35 PM
  18. DragonFlyer's Avatar
    What The F*** is this?
    lcjr, rampagingpanda and bungaboy like this.
    03-18-13 10:26 PM
  19. lcjr's Avatar
    [QUOTE=DragonFlyer;8151033]What The F*** is this?

    That's the exact words I used midway through. Couldn't help but laugh though...
    DragonFlyer likes this.
    03-18-13 10:33 PM
  20. Bugmapper's Avatar
    Seriously, wtf is that? Please tell me rim didn't produce that.
    DragonFlyer and Acumenight like this.
    03-18-13 10:48 PM
  21. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    Did you notice Jesse (please keep me relevent) James in there lol..."I hate all things media and I'm goona punch you in the face if you broadcast anything else...I'm serious dude"...lol
    Last edited by Shanerredflag; 03-18-13 at 11:08 PM. Reason: spelling
    DragonFlyer likes this.
    03-18-13 11:04 PM
  22. Dapper37's Avatar
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-blackberry_investors_barcode.png
    So i've been a part of a BBM group that was created a month before the official launch! Its been a blast! still goes strong every day. But a bit heavy on the apps and function side for me now to keep up lately. My interest is the stock and all info and opinion surrounding it. So I propose a new BBM investors group! As many of you know BBM is the easiest way to share links or important tweets! its lightning fast. My intention is not to take away from threads like this (I think thats impossible) its to enhance the knowldge base of the true StockBerrians, who then continue to share that info. Here is the barcode of the BBM Investors group. Theres only room for 30 so I hope to fill it with the true StockBerrians. The people who are actively searching out the data and spreading the information for the masses. A good number of the people in this thread! See you inside.
    If the BC gives you any issue, add me and I'll add you to the group. Pin# 33319F92
    bungaboy likes this.
    03-19-13 12:19 AM
  23. Zarpan's Avatar
    Attachment 142129
    This is the chart I have been using for estimating.
    I don't know how accurate it is?
    Do you have one that's better?
    That chart is probably a reasonable estimate in many cases, although I've seen some different numbers from sources such as comScore. Maybe I'll try to cobble something together from the sources I've collected at some point.

    For example, Vodacom in South Africa reported about 2.7 million BlackBerry subscribers recently. They have a 58% market share in South Africa, which would imply around 4.7 million BlackBerry subs for SA, which would be 6% of the global total.

    I don't have a chart that's better than that currently, although for Q4 sales projections, I've been using a combination of Google Trends search volumes for the Z10 (benchmarked vs. the S3 and iPhone 5), and whatever market size and share data I could find. If there were news sources talking about Z10 sales, then I've used those too. Not sure how accurate that will turn out to be, but it's probably as good a guesstimate as any.
    bungaboy and DragonFlyer like this.
    03-19-13 03:59 AM
  24. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    What The F*** is this?
    WTF is right! Cheese...
    DragonFlyer likes this.
    03-19-13 04:39 AM
  25. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    What The F*** is this?
    [QUOTE=lcjr;8151069]
    What The F*** is this?

    That's the exact words I used midway through. Couldn't help but laugh though...
    Seriously, wtf is that? Please tell me rim didn't produce that.
    That's a teaser for ... teenagers. I believe.
    There is the more "politically correct" explantion : BlackBerry 10 Keep Moving - Robert Rodriguez Movie - Open Casting Calls
    bungaboy and DragonFlyer like this.
    03-19-13 04:42 AM
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