View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

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  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.60%
  • No

    414 37.40%
  1. _dimi_'s Avatar
    The problem with JC is, that he's not showing his cards and the outlook that he has laid out for Q4 seems so aggresive. Analysts yesterday (including James Faucette) really just asked how he thinks he'll accomplish his 30% growth target YoY, because it implies software and services revenue of 241 million USD in Q4. And he just wasn't willing to give a clear answer. He didnt't sound convincing either if you ask me. Is there going to be another acquisition (did he not state before that they would get to their target without doing more acquisitions?) or do they really have (this much) pent up demand with BlackBerry UEM? If that's the case, then I really don't understand how this business works: you rebrand and combine your already existing services, and then you show revenue growth of 84% YoY or 50% QoQ?! Licensing would contribute just a small fraction of the forecasted revenue in Q4, although JC seemed to 'weigh his words' a few times when he said that. And they really can't afford to miss their goal... for the sake of losing credibility again.

    Morgan, this one's for you if you'd like of course! Thanks


    Posted via CB10
    12-21-16 09:10 AM
  2. _dimi_'s Avatar
    Ok so I believe his 30% growth forecast is based on non-gaap numbers, and therefore much easier to attain. Anyone know what 'software deferred revenue acquired' means? Apparently that number is excluded from the gaap software and services revenue number...?

    Posted via CB10
    12-21-16 12:16 PM
  3. _dimi_'s Avatar
    12-21-16 12:20 PM
  4. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    If there is a way to play with the numbers to make it hard to see what's going on..... BlackBerry accounting is one division that has been on the ball. Would not be surprised if we don't get another change in reporting next year.
    sati01 likes this.
    12-21-16 01:29 PM
  5. chiechie's Avatar
    @_dimi_ If you exclude the IP licencing income last fiscal year and this fiscal year, we do observe much larger software growth (> 30%), using GARP or non-GARP.

    1st, My estimation: last year IP licencing is > 100 million (One large chunk in Q1, the other in Q3), this year, they probably have ~10-20 million YTD.

    2nd, excluding IP, then software growth >> 30%. However, a significant part come from acquisition. Hard to distinguish between the two. The software growth guidance in next ER probably would be the true organic growth we can see from Blackberry.

    3rd, taking this year non-garp software ~ 680-690 million if Chen's target is achieve, a 20-25% growth rate next year would be good enough for me. Furthermore, we do have mobility solution revenue kicks in early 2007.
    12-21-16 02:36 PM
  6. nickelodeon008's Avatar
    Who knows why BlackBerry is dropping again today? I am sure Morgan can answer this, is it the shorts exiting? This is getting crazy, every time I think our Stock will go up it goes opposite. What is happening?
    alludba and CDM76 like this.
    12-21-16 03:48 PM
  7. spiller's Avatar
    After years of being too emotionally invested and taking a beating on a bundle of Leaps.... that will retire worthless, I've figured it out.

    The stock is totally controlled by the MMs whether the valuation is fair or not (obviously not). Usually I would have bought at 7.35 today at the bottom of the BBs. But I see this breaking down to RSI 30. If it does then I will buy. I am certainly glad I have gone from all in on BB to other stocks and less than 10% BB now. And learned life long lessons - and hopefully trading skills - in the process.

    I just looked and it broke support. So probably down to 7 and then the climb to 8.20. Oscillation until big news. I will start trading.
    ZayDub, Corbu, gg22 and 1 others like this.
    12-21-16 04:03 PM
  8. morganplus8's Avatar
    The problem with JC is, that he's not showing his cards and the outlook that he has laid out for Q4 seems so aggresive. Analysts yesterday (including James Faucette) really just asked how he thinks he'll accomplish his 30% growth target YoY, because it implies software and services revenue of 241 million USD in Q4. And he just wasn't willing to give a clear answer. He didnt't sound convincing either if you ask me. Is there going to be another acquisition (did he not state before that they would get to their target without doing more acquisitions?) or do they really have (this much) pent up demand with BlackBerry UEM? If that's the case, then I really don't understand how this business works: you rebrand and combine your already existing services, and then you show revenue growth of 84% YoY or 50% QoQ?! Licensing would contribute just a small fraction of the forecasted revenue in Q4, although JC seemed to 'weigh his words' a few times when he said that. And they really can't afford to miss their goal... for the sake of losing credibility again.

    Morgan, this one's for you if you'd like of course! Thanks


    Posted via CB10
    Hi _dimi_,

    Only have a minute and I'm remembering the data and not looking it up here:

    They did $ 495 MM or $ 527 MM in FY2016 depending on whether you like GAAP or Non-GAAP accounting. We did $ 160 MM or $ 172 MM this quarter, so go back and detail the two prior quarters and than subtract "actual from projected" for Q4 estimates. We are looking at $ 645 MM to $ 685 MM for each scenario so I would suggest Q4 is around $ 160 - $ 170 MM to achieve 30% growth. This is really straight forward and Chen has no problem predicting this outcome so I'll accept it as fact. The issue is where do we fall in FY2018? Chen failed to give guidance and that's fine as it is too early to predict that far in advance.

    Faucette stated,"Little is known about how much revenue the company could generate from new device licensing agreements (e.g. TCL, BB Merah Putih), but we are not expecting more than ~$100mm in the next FY from this arrangement."

    I will take that figure all day, it carries 90% margins and solves the HW dilemma that plagued us for years. The number is actually much higher then I have ever thought possible in its initial year.

    To the point of margins, he states "software and services" margins at 80% plus and overall company margins at 50% or higher. Our latest overall margins were a complete surprise to everyone because they represent the reduction in HW exposure and it creates better margins and much lower revenues. What do you want, profits, high margins and low revenues or Amazon type revenues and no profit with single digit margins? I'll take BB's margins as a software/services company any day.

    So now Faucette ignores IP licensing and Radar and BBM (China) and BBM India and so on ........ all kinds of potential products that are here today, in the midst of negotiations and still no value. In a world where MOBL is above $ 2.50/shr, nothing makes sense.
    12-21-16 04:31 PM
  9. app_Developer's Avatar
    Is the non-GAAP target $685M for software/services for FY17? Doesn't that require >$200M for Q4? They must be expecting a very nice quarter.

    Or is the target really less than $685? In other words, is the target actually 1.3x the FY16 total, excluding the IP portion?
    12-21-16 05:02 PM
  10. Corbu's Avatar
    12-21-16 06:27 PM
  11. Corbu's Avatar
    12-21-16 06:28 PM
  12. rarsen's Avatar
    From the Related Technologies file, not the usual leisurely walk in the park for competing Apple products in 2016, lets see what 2017 brings including Trumponomics:

    2016: Apple's year of ups and downs | ZDNet
    Corbu, morganplus8, sidhuk and 2 others like this.
    12-21-16 07:18 PM
  13. nickelodeon008's Avatar
    The other item that has been bothering me for awhile and probably most on here is the lack of carrier support. I know it's been discussed ad nauseum. What will I do when my fiancee's phone contract expires. She won't want to buy a phone directly. She gets pressured like many of us Blackberry followers to switch to another type of phone. It's been a small battle to keep her with BB; so I hope within a few years of less that we will have a phone that's a hit that will grab carrier support.I just can't believe that we can't even grab 2 to 3 % market share.But I guess we are a software company. I was hoping we could be both. Just a Loyal Frustrated BB follower.
    12-21-16 07:51 PM
  14. b121's Avatar
    Admittedly, I've not crunched the numbers yet, but it seems bbry is under valued here based on the what should be decent growth in CY '17 & '18. While incremental revenue in their growth businesses may not move the top line in the next couple of quarters, the margins seem to be very high on those dollars. I also expect to see limited net income during that period as Chen manages his expenses through restructuring and reinvesting.

    With $1.6B USD, unless there are strategic acquisitions they are planning for, this seems like a good time for a stock buyback. What are everyone's thoughts? What am I missing?
    12-22-16 04:33 AM
  15. Corbu's Avatar
    http://www.truckinginfo.com/channel/...ng-system.aspx
    Modagrafics to Market Blackberry Radar Asset Tracking

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-m-modagrafics-blackberry-radar-1-1.jpg

    Fleet graphics provider Modagrafics has announced signing a sales agent agreement with Blackberry to market the Blackberry Radar asset tracking system to fleet owners.

    Blackberry Radar is an asset tracking system for for-hire trucking companies and private fleet operators. It monitors location, critical events and the internal environmental conditions of trailers. The system can help fleet managers optimize trailer usage, improve on-time delivery and generate more revenue per trailer.

    “Our focus with Blackberry Radar is to improve the bottom line for fleet owners,” said Derek Kuhn, senior vice president of IoT, Blackberry. “Blackberry Radar provides unparalleled data and analytics tools for fleet managers to locate, optimize, and maintain their trailer fleet. Working with Modagrafics, Radar can disrupt and improve the out-of-home advertising market.”

    The Radar tracking device is self-contained and is designed to send fleet managers and dispatchers instant event-driven alerts and regular information updates. The sensors provide indications when cargo is loaded or unloaded, if the trailer is in motion or idle, and when the doors are open or closed. It also monitors trailer conditions, such as temperature, humidity, and barometric pressure. It can handle temperature fluctuations between -40 degrees Fahrenheit and 185 degrees Fahrenheit.

    The Blackberry system is designed to share data with a fleet’s existing transportation management system. Installation and setup can take as little as 10 minutes per vehicle and each device has a battery life of over three years.

    “By combining Modagrafics’ marketing and branding products with the Blackberry Radar solution, our customers will not only be able to improve traditional fleet efficiency, but they will have the ability to more effectively manage their brand presence, optimize their out-of-home marketing budget, and increase customer impressions,” said Paul Pirkle, president and CEO of Modagrafics.
    12-22-16 07:04 AM
  16. Christophe Piquemal's Avatar
    12-22-16 07:04 AM
  17. Corbu's Avatar
    BlackBerry DTEK60 review: Third time is the charm for BlackBerry?s Android efforts | Financial Post

    Overall, the DTEK60 is a solid phone that offers a good feature set at a decent price. Its security features make it ideal for business and consumer alike, and it’s stylish enough to appeal to most tastes. Third time is definitely the charm for BlackBerry.

    Sadly, no Canadian carriers have picked up the DTEK60 yet, but it’s available unlocked from ShopBlackberry, Staples, Best Buy, Amazon.ca, and NCIX. List price is $650.
    Last edited by Corbu; 12-22-16 at 07:51 AM.
    12-22-16 07:16 AM
  18. Corbu's Avatar
    BlackBerry?s deal with TCL leaves the company free to focus on monetising its patents and technology - Blog - Intellectual Asset Management (IAM) - Maximising IP Value for Business

    BlackBerry has effectively completed its transition to a technology services and licensing-focused business model after signing a global brand and software deal with TCL. At the same time, BlackBerry patents are at the centre of a new litigation campaign that is kicking off in the United States.

    Under the terms of an agreement announced last week, Canada’s BlackBerry will license its wireless device-relevant “security software and service suite, as well as related brand assets" to Huizhou-based TCL, which will “design, manufacture, sell and provide customer support for BlackBerry-branded mobile devices”.

    The deal means that TCL will be the exclusive manufacturer and distributor for all BlackBerry-branded smartphones worldwide, except in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Indonesia. Regarding the latter country – which is one of BlackBerry’s key markets – IAM previously reported on the Canadian company’s licence agreement with local company BB Merah Putih. As for the other territories, it may be the case that the Indonesian operation will be covering them; or that BlackBerry is aiming to sign up local licensees, if it hasn’t already done so.

    TCL has form when it comes to leveraging third-party brand assets. It obtained the Alcatel brand for mobile devices after buying out its Alcatel OneTouch joint venture partner, Alcatel-Lucent, in 2005. Around a decade later it acquired trademarks and other IP relating to the storied Palm brand from HP, following up with a promise to resurrect it – though as of earlier this year, little movement appeared to have been made on that last point. Furthermore, last week’s licence agreement will not be the first time that BlackBerry and TCL have paired up; two of the Canadian company’s most recent mobile devices (and probably the two last that it will design in-house and distribute itself) were built under contract by TCL.

    Licensing its brand and software to third-party manufacturers is just one piece of the puzzle, though. As BlackBerry looks to become a more IP-centric business than ever before, shareholders will expect it to adopt an increasingly aggressive approach to monetising its vast patent portfolio, by means of sales or carrot and stick licensing

    There have been signs that the Canadian outfit is already making moves in the latter direction. In June last year, it entered a royalty-bearing licence agreement with Cisco, followed in February this year with the signing of licensing deals with Canon and International Game Technology. BlackBerry has also shown itself as ready to litigate, asserting patents against Avaya in July.

    As you might expect, selling patents is also an option open to BlackBerry – as is partnering with third parties in order to monetise them. Documents seen by IAM back in January suggest that BlackBerry sold a portfolio relating to USB charging technology to investor Centerbridge Partners in a transaction worth as much as $50 million to the Canadian company. As IAM reported at the time, sources further suggested that these patents would be monetised by a special purpose entity managed by TnT IP – a patent consulting firm set up by former Alcatel-Lucent IP executives Craig Thompson and Ozer Teitelbaum.

    Late last week, a company named Fundamental Innovation Systems International LLC filed lawsuits in the US Eastern District of Texas against Huawei and LG Electronics. In the complaints (viewed using Lex Machina), the plaintiff alleges that the two Asian companies have infringed four of its US patents relating to USB charging technology – four patents that had previously been owned by BlackBerry, and were assigned to it on 19th November 2015, according to USPTO records. (The total assignment comprised 56 US assets, while Google Patents indicates that the portfolio contains equivalents in jurisdictions including Europe and China, too.)

    As alluded to in a Tweet earlier from PIPCO investor and IP Hawk blog author David Hoff, Fundamental Innovation Systems is clearly an affiliate of TnT IP: In the court filings, it gives its address as 2990 Long Prairie Road in the town of Flower Mound, Texas – an address it shares with TnT IP. Moreover, Thompson and Teitelbaum’s LinkedIn profiles highlight their management positions at Fundamental Innovation Systems. All this would seem to confirm that TnT is leading these latest actions, and that the patents-in-suit are among those acquired from BlackBerry by Centerbridge last year.

    Obviously, it is going to be much more difficult to ascertain whether or not BlackBerry maintains a stake in any monetisation revenues that TnT manages to derive from these patents. But with the TCL and BB Merah Putih brand agreements and growing momentum in terms of patent deals, it looks like BlackBerry has as good as sealed its rebirth as a technology licensing business. Now, it can focus greater resources on the nitty-gritty of monetising its IP assets.
    12-22-16 07:34 AM
  19. fanBBRY's Avatar
    New Blackberry Smartphones To Join The TCL Communication (TCT) Device Portfolio

    http://www.prnewswire.com/news-relea...300382957.html
    12-22-16 08:24 AM
  20. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    New Blackberry Smartphones To Join The TCL Communication (TCT) Device Portfolio

    New Blackberry Smartphones To Join The TCL Communication (TCT) Device Portfolio
    "We'll unveil more news at CES around our plans, showcasing the legacy of the BlackBerry smartphone brand, while also giving a glimpse into what new BlackBerry smartphones will offer as part of our bold new brand portfolio within TCT. These are just the building blocks of our new growth strategy, with additional announcements to come in 2017."
    Sounds like they tell us what they have planned, for much later in the year......

    Have to hope that TCL overall electronics success, will allow them to approach US Carriers with at least one of their planned devices.
    fanBBRY and alludba like this.
    12-22-16 08:42 AM
  21. Corbu's Avatar
    12-22-16 09:40 AM
  22. BanffMoose's Avatar
    Hope Bbry can somehow get in on this other than being a licensee.


    Posted via CB10
    12-22-16 09:58 AM
  23. ZayDub's Avatar
    Im being so greedy today lol
    gg22 likes this.
    12-22-16 10:01 AM
  24. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    Hope Bbry can somehow get in on this other than being a licensee.


    Posted via CB10
    Are they even involved? Other than Mike was one of the founders of IQC.

    BlackBerry's R&D budget is not a good sign for their ability to be on the cutting edge of some of these newer technologies.
    12-22-16 10:15 AM
  25. pbfan's Avatar
    Does this Q report have costs related to acquiring good technologies?
    12-22-16 10:35 AM
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