[Corbu]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ervices-growth
BlackBerry Boosts 2017 Profit Forecast on Software Growth

[Corbu]

JC with Amber:
BlackBerry raises forecast as Chen leads software transition - Article - BNN

[Corbu]

Superfly_FR, rarsen, morganplus8 and 3 others like this.

12-20-16 10:38 AM

Like 6

[spiller]

Bla1ze hit most the highlights.... not much was said, and not many questions were even asked on the call.

There were some attempts to find some negatives, and they failed. Radar has one new customer and 5-6 others looking at it. QNX Auto will be at least one royalty per vehicle, with Ford and Sync 3 it sounded 2+ royalties per vehicle. Software on tracked for 30% growth. Full year forecast is + EPS now. How is this not at $10 today?

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

There were some attempts to find some negatives, and they failed. Radar has one new customer and 5-6 others looking at it. QNX Auto will be at least one royalty per vehicle, with Ford and Sync 3 it sounded 2+ royalties per vehicle. Software on tracked for 30% growth. Full year forecast is + EPS now. How is this not at $10 today?

How much is RADAR bring in?
How much will those extra royalties be per quarter?
Keep hearing 30% growth... but then Chen talks about hoping to stay ahead of the market which is only 10% growth.

It's not $10, because there simply isn't enough revenue and profit there to support a valuation that high. They are a very small software company that still has some shrinking pains as the phase out hardware and service fees and overall revenues drop off. They are not a start-up on the cutting edge of some IoT or Self Driving Car technology.

They are in good shape for this transition and have a solid business plan to follow.... BlackBerry is saved.

[Corbu]

OT:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-mac-loyalists
How Apple Alienated Mac Loyalists

[Corbu]

JC on Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/video...=yhoo.headline

BlackBerry CEO John Chen discusses profit margins, software revenue growth, trade with China, autonomous driving and competition with automakers. He speaks with Bloomberg's Caroline Hyde on "Bloomberg Markets."

[fanBBRY]

Removing post as Corbu already posted.

[Corbu]

I always enjoy Doug Pollitt:
The negatives are becoming 'smaller and smaller': Blackberry analyst - Video - BNN

As Blackberry's turnaround efforts continue, the company reported a stronger-than-expected third quarter. Pollitt and Co analyst Doug Pollitt joins BNN to discuss why he sees the "negatives" about the company shrinking and his outlook for the company's move into autonomous cars

[anon(757282)]

Negative again on a positive report and upgraded forecast? WTF??

[sidhuk]

Lol. As always. Any better news day for blackberry is made sure that it ends in Red. Let's see how long that trend can last?

[world traveler and former ceo]

Negative again on a positive report and upgraded forecast? WTF??

70 million shorts not impressed, I guess.... year end tax Loss selling, its cold out, ....

16 million shares traded on Nasdak... late selloff.. Hmmm, wonder how much of that is mm"s still manipulating their short positions?

Posted via CB10

[Corbu]

BlackBerry Ltd

MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC

James E Faucette

Stock Rating : Equal-weight / Industry View : Cautious / Price Target : $7.00

The Long Tunnel

The journey to the resumption of top line growth for BlackBerry remains long. In the mean time, cost management and the wind down of the device business appear to be ahead of plan.

Resumption of revenue growth remains the challenge. Until the company can return to top line revenue growth, we do not see a clear investment case as cash flow and profitability, while positive, will not be material, in our view. Because of strong cost management and the transition of the devices business to a licensing model, we now expect BlackBerry to be non-GAAP EPS breakeven for FY17. However, top line growth in the business continues to be a challenge. Little is known about how much revenue the company could generate from new device licensing agreements (e.g. TCL, BB Merah Putih), but we are not expecting more than ~$100mm in the next FY from this arrangement. Additionally, while the growth in software & services business is roughly offsetting the losses in the SAF, we still are not expecting the company to generate revenue growth through FY19. Investments in areas like autonomous cars (e.g. $75 - 100mm over the next few years) could be interesting, but agreements to date are non-exclusive and projects are long tailed (e.g. no revenue expected until '19 at the earliest).

Cost management and device wind down ahead of plan. BlackBerry reported 3Q17 non-GAAP revenue / EPS of $301mm / $0.02, short of our revenue, but ahead of our earnings estimates of $322mm / ($0.02). Non-GAAP gross margins of 69.8% were well ahead of expectations of 60.6% as the company wound down the device business faster than expected (e.g. device revenue was $70mm vs. our expectation of $77mm). Opex continues to be managed tightly, particularly as hardware resources are no longer needed as the device business moves to a licensing model.

Revising estimates lower on top line, higher on bottom line. We lower our revenue forecast to factor faster than expected SAF declines and a faster than expected shift to licensing based revenue in the devices business. Revenue declines are offset by gross margin improvements, which help drive EPS breakeven in Q4. Looking out to FY18 we are expecting increased investment levels as management focuses on new growth opportunities. All together our 4Q17 and FY18 rev. / EPS estimates are now $270mm / ($0.00) and $1.0bn / ($0.08) from $279mm / ($0.03) and $1.03bn / ($0.05) respectively.

Remain EW and a $7PT. Our $7 PT is 3.5x our FY18e software revenue forecast. Management continues to preserve its net cash position of ~$2.00 per share through cost cuts. Announcement that the company is changing their hardware model could help reduce costs and increase balance sheet flexibility, but most of this had already been done with the ODM arrangements struck in the last year. We continue to believe the company will need to make acquisitions to achieve double digit software growth rates in the long term.

[spiller]

Total jokes these guys. Chen forecasts profit going forward. Faucet says (.08) for FY18. I guess until these MMs get out of their short positions, they still control the stock. And it's pretty pathetic that other funds aren't coming in to take advantage of the value. Do they all have a private chat room agreement that no funds will come in until others cover?

[masterful]

Total jokes these guys. Chen forecasts profit going forward. Faucet says (.08) for FY18. I guess until these MMs get out of their short positions, they still control the stock. And it's pretty pathetic that other funds aren't coming in to take advantage of the value. Do they all have a private chat room agreement that no funds will come in until others cover?

You have to give them time to get out

[world traveler and former ceo]

You have to give them time to get out

Do they have reason?.... yet?

Posted via CB10

[JonCBK]

Thought that was a pretty good earnings release. Software continues to grow. Hardware sadly dying, but there should be a place for high security devices sold into enterprise and governments and used on a lock down basis (and yes that may mean you have to carry two phones (the U.S. would have a different President-Elect right now if Hillary had just carried a Blackberry like pretty much everyone else in Washington)). I know my company's parent company is getting much more serious about security. We know that folks are regularly trying to hack us (that meaning the parent company, not so much the little subsidiary I work for).

[markmall]

Thought that was a pretty good earnings release. Software continues to grow. Hardware sadly dying, but there should be a place for high security devices sold into enterprise and governments and used on a lock down basis (and yes that may mean you have to carry two phones (the U.S. would have a different President-Elect right now if Hillary had just carried a Blackberry like pretty much everyone else in Washington)). I know my company's parent company is getting much more serious about security. We know that folks are regularly trying to hack us (that meaning the parent company, not so much the little subsidiary I work for).

Two phone requirements do exist, and BlackBerry could have leveraged this. But Chen and company don't know how to market. Maybe they can market enterprise software but they will never succeed in devices.

Posted via CB10

[Corbu]

Bank of America / Merrill Lynch

Tal Liani

Research Analyst

BlackBerry

Mixed results as revenue deteriorates but margins improve

Reiterate Rating: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 6.00 USD | Price: 7.61 USD

3Q EPS beat; software shift, hardware declines help margins
Blackberry reported mixed 3Q results, with revenue of $301mn below our $340mn, but EPS of 2c, beating our -2c estimate. Gross margins were a bright spot, improving over 2400bps YoY to 69.8%, helped by the increasing mix of software and management’s strategy to outsource manufacturing. Gross margins also benefited from a sharp 67% YoY decline in low-margin handset sales, which is part of the new strategy to exit the hardware market. The declines in the high-margin Service Access Fees also accelerated, down 26% QoQ. Still, management raised its FY17 EPS guidance from -3c to 0c, driven by ~65% 4Q gross margin guidance, and reiterated FY17 software revenue guidance for 30% YoY growth. We favor the software traction and margin improvement but continue to focus on the steep declines for roughly half of revenues. We adjust our model, lowering revenue and increasing margins/EPS, but maintain our Underperform rating and $6 PO based on roughly 2.3x our FY18E EV/Sales.

What we like: software growth, gross margins
Software and Services revenues grew 1% YoY in 3Q but were up strongly 49% YoY once we exclude IP licensing (we estimate mid-20% when adjusting for Good acquisition). Management expects to reach its 30% YoY FY17 Software growth target. The growing part of software, which carries 80% gross margin, and the deterioration of low-margin segments helps margins, and we increase our FY18 gross margin estimate from roughly 66% to 74%. Another positive is the recurring nature of ~80% of software and service revenues (excluding IP licensing) and management highlighted a multi-year IP licensing deal ($50mn+) signed in the quarter.

What we don’t like: limited Mobility prospects, valuation
Nevertheless, we expect high Mobility operating expenses and corporate unallocated operating expenses to be a drag on operating margins through FY18, which we now estimate at about -1% versus our prior -8% estimate. The new handset technology/brand licensing strategy is expected to carry up to 90% gross margin, but the revenue opportunity is substantially lower. Trading at 3.1x our FY19E EV/Sales, with negative growth rates through our CY18E model, we don’t find the valuation attractive.

Investment Rationale
In our view, Blackberry's long-term outlook is unlikely to improve given diminishing strategic options and fierce competitive pressure in consumer and enterprise. We see a low probability BBRY improves its positioning given pressure from Android vendors and the iPhone. We also think the transition to software faces tough competition in the EMM market. We believe BES12/Good growth is not enough to offset steep declines in Service Access Fee (SAF) and Hardware revenues.

[Corbu]

A quick reminder:
If you have any questions for BBRY management, please post them tonight.

Thanks!

[Corbu]

BlackBerry on the right road, but execution will be key: Analyst - Video - BNN

BlackBerry is boosting its full-year forecast as it moves forward with a transition plan to become a software leader. Santosh Rao, head of research, Manhattan Venture Partners says near-term BlackBerry remains a "show me" story, but that there's great long-term potential and that the company's move to a software-centric model is progressing well.

[davemason2k]

The analysts hate this company. geez

[sidhuk]

Corbu this is funny lol

[world traveler and former ceo]

http://money.cnn.com/2016/12/20/inve...ock/index.html

CNN headlines... "BlackBerry Still on Life Support". Wtf!!!

Come on Chen!! ... must do better in communicating your message AND delivering!!.... revenue growth, partnerships... utilize your "Media friendly" contacts to preempt this BS and get your positive message out there!!

MM'S are continuing to play you and this company...

And move more aggressively to get Software and Services revenues up more quickly!!

PS. Corbu.. pass this message in its entirety to your Blackberry contact... and tell him shareholders are pissed off at this slow rate of progress..my words

Posted via CB10

[world traveler and former ceo]

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/rep...ticle22539440/

OT: race is on..Quantum Computing.. real future of Encryption etc.....

Posted via CB10