View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

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  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.77%
  • No

    411 37.23%
  1. _dimi_'s Avatar
    The software business is growing. I guess it depends on what you mean by "significant"?
    Well, as of last quarter they were still unprofitable, and trading at a high price-to-sales ratio compared to many or most of its peers. So I'd be looking for indications of a path towards profitability to justify the current price, which might be as little as +/- 0,25 EPS per year or more depending on the (perception of the) outlook for the company. The income statement should become a lot clearer over the next few quarters (no hardware, SAF close to zero), and that's when I think BlackBerry will start trading at levels similar to its peers. And to respond to your question, 30% revenue growth is very significant, but pure organic growth is probably more in the 10-15% range so they would need to keep acquiring while their net cash position will be +/- 1.2 billion this quarter and competition in the M&A market is probably fierce. So they could end up overpaying. Of course, they could hit better sales targets in FY2018, and QNX is a big wild card, plus litigation ongoing against Avaya and BLU, but how much will it impact their financials going forward?


    Posted via CB10
    12-06-16 10:51 AM
  2. _dimi_'s Avatar
    http://www.bnn.ca/video/mccreath-bla...intheus~960888

    I hope this will turn out to be 'true'.. although not sure how he gets from a 25% operating margin to 0,65 EPS.. perhaps a question for Morgan: wouldn't the company need to have 1,365 billion in software revenue for it to result in 0,65 EPS / net profit margin of 25%?

    Just 2 more weeks before we get another peek at how the company is doing.

    Posted via CB10
    morganplus8 likes this.
    12-06-16 11:03 AM
  3. _dimi_'s Avatar
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-img_20161206_192210.png

    Posted via CB10
    Corbu, rarsen, sidhuk and 3 others like this.
    12-06-16 01:22 PM
  4. Corbu's Avatar
    OT:
    Meanwhile... Our friend Kulbinder is a tad more positive about AAPL...
    Apple: iPhone Looking Good All the Way through Number 9, Says Credit Suisse - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com
    rarsen and morganplus8 like this.
    12-06-16 01:41 PM
  5. morganplus8's Avatar
    McCreath: BlackBerry's Chen is going software shopping in the U.S. - Video - BNN

    I hope this will turn out to be 'true'.. although not sure how he gets from a 25% operating margin to 0,65 EPS.. perhaps a question for Morgan: wouldn't the company need to have 1,365 billion in software revenue for it to result in 0,65 EPS / net profit margin of 25%?

    Just 2 more weeks before we get another peek at how the company is doing.

    Posted via CB10
    Hi _dimi_ !

    His numbers are solid if not a bit on the conservative side. I had $ .67/shr/US in EPS as a pure play. He used a go forward $ 650 MM for software revenues, I used $ 700 MM plus and we both used a gross Margin of 80 % instead of the reported quarter of 84% thinking that was too high. Net margins on software are currently around 47% so it is easy to see how we could get close to our numbers. $ 650 MM / 512 MM shares at 47% Net gives you $ .60/shr in earnings assuming they leave hardware. Not bad when you think he crunched those numbers minutes after the call. I used the full 30% in growth to hit a higher number then he did. As for the 25% net income figure, that's where we are today transitioning from a hardware company, it included plenty of other inputs too. We are expecting QNX to turn positive next year with some real growth and of course there is Radar and several other deals on Hardware to China or India. Like it or not, they are very much still in the phone business with the rest of the world to sell hardware to. Seems to me that the Android phones are starting to get some traction which is bitter sweet if you think they are rushing to end hardware participation.

    Regarding valuation, I can give you a $ 1.60/shr value, up to $ 12.00/shr, it depends on what you want to hear. Look at the valuation of MOBL, a one trick pony that burns cash in a big way, no assets and a very limited portfolio of offering trading at 2.2 times sales, that's is just plain crazy. There isn't much growth there, perhaps 8% if you fudge the numbers enough. BlackBerry instantly becomes profitable if you completely dump hardware, there is no comparison in the two. I don't really listen to analysts as they create their targets in their own way and there is no science involved. GL
    Corbu, fanBBRY, rarsen and 14 others like this.
    12-06-16 04:02 PM
  6. Corbu's Avatar
    12-06-16 05:01 PM
  7. Corbu's Avatar
    BlackBerry to announce Q3 Fiscal 2017 results on Tuesday, December 20th, 2016 | CrackBerry.com

    WATERLOO, ONTARIO--(Dec. 6, 2016) - BlackBerry Limited (NASDAQ:BBRY)(TSX:BB) will be reporting results for the third quarter of fiscal 2017 on December 20, 2016. A conference call and live webcast will be held beginning at 8 am ET, which can be accessed by dialing 1-844-309-0607 or by logging on at Investor Events - Canada.

    A replay of the conference call will also be available at approximately 11 am ET by dialing 1-855-859-2056 or 1-404-537-3406 and entering Conference ID #18826550 or by clicking the link above.
    12-06-16 07:31 PM
  8. Corbu's Avatar
    https://blog.bbm.com/2016/12/07/trav...ew-bbm-travel/
    Travel Bookings Made Easy with New BBM Travel
    fanBBRY, sidhuk, rarsen and 5 others like this.
    12-07-16 07:34 AM
  9. _dimi_'s Avatar
    Hi _dimi_ !

    His numbers are solid if not a bit on the conservative side. I had $ .67/shr/US in EPS as a pure play. He used a go forward $ 650 MM for software revenues, I used $ 700 MM plus and we both used a gross Margin of 80 % instead of the reported quarter of 84% thinking that was too high. Net margins on software are currently around 47% so it is easy to see how we could get close to our numbers. $ 650 MM / 512 MM shares at 47% Net gives you $ .60/shr in earnings assuming they leave hardware. Not bad when you think he crunched those numbers minutes after the call. I used the full 30% in growth to hit a higher number then he did. As for the 25% net income figure, that's where we are today transitioning from a hardware company, it included plenty of other inputs too. We are expecting QNX to turn positive next year with some real growth and of course there is Radar and several other deals on Hardware to China or India. Like it or not, they are very much still in the phone business with the rest of the world to sell hardware to. Seems to me that the Android phones are starting to get some traction which is bitter sweet if you think they are rushing to end hardware participation.

    Regarding valuation, I can give you a $ 1.60/shr value, up to $ 12.00/shr, it depends on what you want to hear. Look at the valuation of MOBL, a one trick pony that burns cash in a big way, no assets and a very limited portfolio of offering trading at 2.2 times sales, that's is just plain crazy. There isn't much growth there, perhaps 8% if you fudge the numbers enough. BlackBerry instantly becomes profitable if you completely dump hardware, there is no comparison in the two. I don't really listen to analysts as they create their targets in their own way and there is no science involved. GL
    Thanks. It seems I was comparing apples and oranges, so thanks for clearing that out. Citrix is trading at a PE ratio of +/- 30. I'm hoping we can see a similar valuation for BlackBerry once we're hitting the numbers you mentioned

    Posted via CB10
    morganplus8, sidhuk and alludba like this.
    12-07-16 09:03 AM
  10. Corbu's Avatar
    Best Phone For Business | Android Central
    The BlackBerry DTEK60 is the best phone you can buy to use with your business.
    12-07-16 09:30 AM
  11. Corbu's Avatar
    12-07-16 09:35 AM
  12. morganplus8's Avatar
    Thanks. It seems I was comparing apples and oranges, so thanks for clearing that out. Citrix is trading at a PE ratio of +/- 30. I'm hoping we can see a similar valuation for BlackBerry once we're hitting the numbers you mentioned

    Posted via CB10
    You gave us a great example of where all of this could go here. Citrix has revenue growth of only 4%, their gross margins are like BB, 81%, but their S G & A comes in at 46% which is huge to manage. The end result is a very mature 10% operating line. Despite the slow growth, they carry a huge "software" P/E!

    BB can achieve much higher % growth in several key areas here, their software margins net of cost are far better and they have tons of resources at their disposal to grow the company through acquisitions. We are 2 -3 quarters away from a clean mean driving machine here but the market usually rewards companies with vision early on and so BBRY could be setting up for a sustained rally soon. If Chen can show us that he will drag HW costs down in the same manner that he controlled cash in the first two years, the market will stop calling this a HW centric play and place it in the software column and give it a much better P/E. In order to obtain a P/E, you need a sustainable income and we aren't quite there yet. I do think we are close enough to start a major rally in the stock now. The surprise now would be if HW starts to pay its way just as BB licenses out the rights to design their phones in several large markets. BB may decide to launch one more PKB phone knowing they are so close to making HW work again. I have stated that BB is so far away from leaving the HW business that Wall Street is clueless if they think they are out of it. As a tiny company, BB can show some real growth again here in several sectors. Chen was mandated to turn this thing around in 5-years, not 3, he is starting to develop a lean company in 3, the next two could be really exciting and way ahead of schedule. The next report is just around the corner and the stock is ready for a rally that tops last years, Dec. 14 to the end of the year. As you can see, I'm really bullish on the company now, they are seeing consistent and positive media reporting, even their DTEK60 phone is well received. It's been a long time since we have enjoyed a positive media experience like this.

    I will hit on your comment about M&A for BB, MOBL is grossly too expensive to be purchased but there are still some gems like SWIR out there that could fit with BB. They can buy it, spin off the sectors they don't need and make it profitable right away. I'm sure there are so many of them out there that you and I have never heard of, many whom are private at this time. Chen, spend some money please.
    rarsen, Corbu, sidhuk and 10 others like this.
    12-07-16 11:04 AM
  13. FeitaInc's Avatar
    I will hit on your comment about M&A for BB, MOBL is grossly too expensive to be purchased but there are still some gems like SWIR out there that could fit with BB. They can buy it, spin off the sectors they don't need and make it profitable right away. I'm sure there are so many of them out there that you and I have never heard of, many whom are private at this time. Chen, spend some money please.
    I guess it doesn't really fit the 'BlackBerry the software company'-vision they are preaching now, but yeah, it would be an interesting purchase.
    12-07-16 11:24 AM
  14. fanBBRY's Avatar
    OT: maybe Blackberry should have tried something similar with devices before they gave up (kidding)

    http://money.cnn.com/2016/12/07/news...gory=companies
    12-07-16 02:39 PM
  15. Corbu's Avatar
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-c00164a6d_fa539100-bcb2-11e6-ba2f-02000a1b4167.jpeg

    Presumably, the dark side of the smallest and innermost planet in the solar system...
    Last edited by Corbu; 12-07-16 at 03:36 PM. Reason: ;-)
    12-07-16 02:48 PM
  16. Corbu's Avatar
    https://www.cyberscoop.com/blackberr...al-robert-day/
    BlackBerry hires former Coast Guard CIO for cyber center
    12-07-16 03:08 PM
  17. ZayDub's Avatar
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	C00164A6D_fa539100-bcb2-11e6-ba2f-02000a1b4167.jpeg 
Views:	973 
Size:	23.8 KB 
ID:	413707

    Presumably, the dark side of the smallest and innermost planet in the solar system...
    Lol looks like they are reusing old parts for new devices. I'll stick with the priv
    12-07-16 03:47 PM
  18. rarsen's Avatar
    Slowly turning to more positive press, as they where not so much in the past:

    What Do Analysts Expect from BlackBerry in Fiscal 3Q17? - Market Realist

    and
    "Apple (AAPL) CarPlay and Google (GOOG) Android Auto also opted for QNX software last year, which was another big win for BlackBerry"
    Question: does anyone have extra info on this??
    Last edited by rarsen; 12-07-16 at 07:02 PM. Reason: Added the question
    12-07-16 04:11 PM
  19. dalinxz's Avatar
    Slowly turning to more positive press, as they where not so much in the past:

    What Do Analysts Expect from BlackBerry in Fiscal 3Q17? - Market Realist
    They're doing this, so if it does well they don't look bad, and if they do badly, as most of us expect and are fairly sure on they can lower their targets even more and put even more pressure on the sp
    12-07-16 04:29 PM
  20. Corbu's Avatar
    rarsen, morganplus8 and La Emperor like this.
    12-07-16 05:54 PM
  21. ZayDub's Avatar
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	C00164A6D_fa539100-bcb2-11e6-ba2f-02000a1b4167.jpeg 
Views:	973 
Size:	23.8 KB 
ID:	413707

    Presumably, the dark side of the smallest and innermost planet in the solar system...
    The SE did look good though.
    12-07-16 06:40 PM
  22. world traveler and former ceo's Avatar
    http://www.phonearena.com/news/Black...S-soon_id88787

    BBM to eventually run on Samsung s Tizen OS

    Posted via CB10
    12-08-16 12:49 AM
  23. fanBBRY's Avatar
    More on Cyber Security:

    ThyssenKrupp trade secrets stolen in 'massive' cyber attack this year

    http://m.economictimes.com/news/inte...w/55873407.cms
    12-08-16 08:27 AM
  24. Corbu's Avatar
    OT:
    For anyone interested in pharmas, biotechs, etc.
    Senate joins House to pass sweeping new health bill | Reuters
    12-08-16 08:51 AM
  25. masterful's Avatar
    More on Cyber Security:

    ThyssenKrupp trade secrets stolen in 'massive' cyber attack this year

    http://m.economictimes.com/news/inte...w/55873407.cms
    More music
    sidhuk likes this.
    12-08-16 10:49 AM
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