View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

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1104. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.77%
  • No

    411 37.23%
  1. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Don't feed....

    Posted via CB10
    04-20-16 09:52 PM
  2. Corbu's Avatar



    Published on Apr 20, 2016
    Born in the North, an icon that changed the game and never forgot where it’s from. PRIV Secure Smartphone powered by Android combines everything you’ve come to expect from BlackBerry with the full Android app ecosystem. Enjoy the full Android experience along with BlackBerry security, your choice of touch and slide out physical keyboard and colossal battery to power you through the day. Powered by a system, made to deliver. PRIV is proud to be the official smartphone of the Toronto Raptors.
    04-20-16 09:56 PM
  3. JonCBK's Avatar
    I just have a question guys,
    Why did BlackBerry took the loan from FairFax when they had and still have enough cash reserve?
    They are also paying interest for the money they never used.
    So please I just want to know what is the point of this loan?, and BlackBerry still has $1.37 billion!
    Another question,
    BlackBerry's market cap is around $3.7 billion
    Does this really mean the real current value of the company with its all cash reserves?
    It is really too low since the company created Candy Crush Saga had a higher value.
    Here are some simple answers. They borrowed the money in case they weren't able to slow down and reverse their cash burn, but they have been able to. They need at least some cash to run the company as well.
    The current value basically assumes management will blow through cash before the company either gets sold or ends up a smaller security and software provider, possibly just licensing patents as well.
    04-20-16 11:25 PM
  4. Bacon Munchers's Avatar
    So it's one thing to dump a customer, it's another to help law enforcement to decrypt messages.

    Here's why it matters: if I'm going to buy or renew BES, I want to know that BB cannot (with any reasonable amount of effort) decrypt my messages. In other words, I want to be sure there BB does not have access to my keys. Again, I believe the answer is that BB does not actually have access to our keys. That's good, because that is what any major customer will want to know. That's an important selling point of BES.

    BUT, the issue is when Chen makes these statements about cooperating with law enforcement to decrypt messages. I think what Chen said is that this isn't possible for BB to do with BES. Again, that's good for BES customers, but then Chen should back off on his statements about cooperating with law enforcement. Essentially what he is saying is that they won't protect criminal or terrorist activity unless the criminal org pays for BES and manages their own keys.

    If the criminal has a BES account, Chen is saying he actually can't decrypt content for law enforcement. Isn't that correct?

    Then for the consumer case, Chen is also now admitting that consumers have end to end encryption in WA, but not in the normal BBM app on their phones. Isn't that also correct?
    It may be prudent for you to simply open up a BES12 account at this point, and then report back.
    I'll bet a box of Canadian glazed maple doughnuts that 90% of your questions and concerns will be answered.
    3MIKE and morganplus8 like this.
    04-21-16 01:16 AM
  5. JLagoon's Avatar
    Hi all! Hi Morgan!

    It is great to see continued conversations about BBRY with up to date news posts from our wonderful posters.

    Daily
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-screen-shot-2016-04-21-3.32.26-am.jpg

    Heres my take. On the daily chart, we have the bottom blue line as our support line. We have been consolidating for the past 10 days right at the support line. The good news is that we are at the fourth higher low. The first one was in October 2015. The second one was in January 2016. The third one was in February 2016. In the short term, we could see a climb to around $8. All indicators show that there is a room for this climb, and the action today signals a buy. The not so good news is the top orange line. This is a rather strong resistance line. So, given that we dont create a lower low, after this fourth higher low, the next prices to break are: $7.45, $7.75, $8.25, and $9.40.

    Weekly
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-screen-shot-2016-04-21-3.51.34-am.jpg
    On the weekly chart, we see how crucial the bottom blue line on the daily chart. To me, it looks like a major move (hopefully upward) is going to happen by June 2016. If we move up, then it could take us to the next level of the price range ($10 - $12). If we move down, then we will probably bounce around $7 - $10 for months.

    Now, lets see how the chart that Dimi posted relates to this. The original poster of that chart is bullish about this pattern formed with the two black striped lines. We need to keep in mind that this is an insane stock to keep track, if you are a bull. The reason is that it has broken a few major bullish patterns since 2013. I am not too bullish about the pattern itself, because it is a descending triangle. A descending triangle results in a break down usually. Something that we need to keep in mind is that this pattern is a huge oneover 4 years. So, I doubt its validity.

    If you are a bear, and you take this descending triangle seriously, then you would hold on to your shorts until BBRY reaches the sp of MOBL, which is insane. If you are a bull, then you doubt the validity of this pattern, and should be concerned about the short term movements, and fundamentals.

    I think and believe, John Chen is doing his best to hit revenue goals, and make hardware profitable. BBRY is going to release 2 mid priced Android phones this year. The success of these phones are so crucial. Software revenue is crucial too, but the customer base is limited. With phones, the customer base is much bigger. I hope, they market these phones appropriately. Blackberry could be taking customers away from Motorola, Huawei, and Xiaomi; and possibly Samsung too.
    04-21-16 04:59 AM
  6. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Ok, you lost me there. I would think this would increase the perceived (and real, btw!) value of end to end encryption for voice, such as what WA now has. This leaves BB behind a bit, since they don't have voice encryption at all unless you use secusmart, right?

    FB offers this for free.
    Of course this is related to secure environments re: enterprises. So yes, that's Secusmart related. That's where Chen puts all the efforts right now.
    But WA does NOT have "end-to-end" more likely "one to one encryption" (which is solid, I'd guess), not the full scheme from device to (almost all) network to back end. This was an example as how security is always measured by its weaker point. If the device running WA is corrupted, they can encrypt as strong as they want ... it'll be sniffed before.
    Last edited by Superfly_FR; 04-21-16 at 07:34 AM.
    bbfort likes this.
    04-21-16 07:21 AM
  7. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    if I'm going to buy or renew BES, I want to know that BB cannot (with any reasonable amount of effort) decrypt my messages. In other words, I want to be sure there BB does not have access to my keys.
    read my lips : they.simply.can't acces your keys.
    Last edited by Superfly_FR; 04-21-16 at 07:34 AM. Reason: wrong quote author
    04-21-16 07:32 AM
  8. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Plus if the EU acts, that becomes a shot in the arm to Apple's lawyers and lobbyists who would love to see similar action here in the US. If the case is settled in the EU's favor, this is a big deal and would change the global landscape immediately.
    TBH, be almost certain apple is already on the EU list for unfair practices and similar abusive constraints.
    And yes, this might really change the whole landscape ... Patience, patience ...
    rarsen, morganplus8 and 3MIKE like this.
    04-21-16 07:37 AM
  9. TGIS's Avatar
    Don't you mean it was posted to the, "I support GOOG and I buy shares !" thread? ,

    He uses a Classic and that's cool enough, I guess he doesn't want his naked pictures all over the net.

    Good to see you here bringing the board back to BBRY, let's hope we can keep one or two trolls away this time!

    Spiller had a question a few pages back about BlackBerry valuation as a SW company so I think I'll go see if it is still there! Peace.

    OOPS! I now see it was _dimi_ that posed the question regarding BBRY valuation!
    There is a thread for that
    04-21-16 08:01 AM
  10. app_Developer's Avatar
    Of course this is related to secure environments re: enterprises. So yes, that's Secusmart related. That's where Chen puts all the efforts right now.
    But WA does NOT have "end-to-end" more likely "one to one encryption" (which is solid, I'd guess), not the full scheme from device to (almost all) network to back end. This was an example as how security is always measured by its weaker point. If the device running WA is corrupted, they can encrypt as strong as they want ... it'll be sniffed before.
    You should study the protocol that WA is using, it's publicly available. It's similar to approaches that have been used in financial services, but with a stronger implementation. It's very good work, and it's all open to public review and scrutiny.

    The key exchange is definitely end to end. I don't know what you mean by "one to one"? Maybe worth discussing on another thread, since this is OT.
    04-21-16 08:17 AM
  11. app_Developer's Avatar
    read my lips : they.simply.can't acces your keys.
    I figured as much. I just think Chen should say that as clearly as you just did to all potential customers and not bury it under the headline of "we think cooperating with authorities is important". He did say they can't access the BES keys later on, but he needs to know that people read the beginning of statements more often than para 2 or 3. Often they read just the headlines. The headline should have been "we can't decrypt your communications!"

    And it begs the question that if a criminal buys BES, and a court wants to see those communications as potential evidence, then BB can't do it. That's a good thing, IMO. But Chen should be building his position on that very solid base. Instead he's saying they believe in this moral obligation to cooperate with authorities BUT if you pay for our BES service then we can't.
    ZayDub and Dunt Dunt Dunt like this.
    04-21-16 08:22 AM
  12. bbjdog's Avatar
    Let's revisit

    http://blogs.blackberry.com/2016/04/...lnerabilities/

    Posted via my BlackBerry Passport
    Corbu, Mr BBRY, rarsen and 3 others like this.
    04-21-16 08:32 AM
  13. _dimi_'s Avatar
    I figured as much. I just think Chen should say that as clearly as you just did to all potential customers and not bury it under the headline of "we think cooperating with authorities is important". He did say they can't access the BES keys later on, but he needs to know that people read the beginning of statements more often than para 2 or 3. Often they read just the headlines. The headline should have been "we can't decrypt your communications!"

    And it begs the question that if a criminal buys BES, and a court wants to see those communications as potential evidence, then BB can't do it. That's a good thing, IMO. But Chen should be building his position on that very solid base. Instead he's saying they believe in this moral obligation to cooperate with authorities BUT if you pay for our BES service then we can't.
    I agree. JC should stop using multiple paragraphs in his editorials ;-)

    Posted via CB10
    04-21-16 08:42 AM
  14. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    I figured as much. I just think Chen should say that as clearly as you just did to all potential customers and not bury it under the headline of "we think cooperating with authorities is important". He did say they can't access the BES keys later on, but he needs to know that people read the beginning of statements more often than para 2 or 3. Often they read just the headlines. The headline should have been "we can't decrypt your communications!"

    And it begs the question that if a criminal buys BES, and a court wants to see those communications as potential evidence, then BB can't do it. That's a good thing, IMO. But Chen should be building his position on that very solid base. Instead he's saying they believe in this moral obligation to cooperate with authorities BUT if you pay for our BES service then we can't.
    Bolded : your answer.
    Then, they may help discovering if the BES dependencies (ex: non AtHoc storage, backups, logs ...), are well set, security patches has been applied, etc. In short: bring their expertise to the service of justice. But they can't do magic : private key is just that : private. The headline you request would be a total lie without the BES context (as explained later) which is not the context of the article - I assume your refer to the 2010 Canadian police affair, right ? - where PIN2PIN and BBM seems the only subjects. In that context, not only they can, but they will (under lawful request, of course). That simple.

    I believe it's pretty important for a company like BlackBerry to explain clearly and undoubtedly what they can/can't provide.
    My reading is : if you go for the full Monty, rest assured you're in a Fort Knox situation but also that amateurs won't be encouraged to go that way, as it requires a full level of expertise and they're very likely going to make mistakes we will notice pretty fast.
    Extrapolated : Oh, yes, there's one path for them : the cloud based BES.
    Last edited by Superfly_FR; 04-21-16 at 09:59 AM.
    04-21-16 09:07 AM
  15. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    As a my little recap from earlier events :

    Reminder

    OT (off topic) describes a subject
    that you don't at least comment to link it to BlackBerry performance, valuation or perception in a way it could affect the BBRY stock.
    ex : (repetitive) Monkeys, girls, music (unless lyrics are spot on, maybe ?), hockey, other stocks (out of the sector) and you know what. Also : simple links or verbatim quotes without added value / comments. We are supposed to understand why it (or, better what part) is relevant to the stock.

    Personal means just that
    if you don't have a civil and related post answer to print, just don't print anything and move along.
    If you find one post offending or against the rules (here), report it (see below too).

    Don't shoot yourself in the foot
    give any contributor here the same amount of tolerance you request for yourself.

    Newcomers are NOT supposed to acknowledge instantly regulars skills and history
    by no means this should be underestimated. Remember we're only rich of others questions and statements; that's where the light may come, eventually. There's no dumb question, only poor answers.

    Moreover, finally
    This is a leisure & friendly forum, for passionate grown adults : act likewise !
    Last edited by Superfly_FR; 04-21-16 at 09:58 AM.
    techvisor and 3MIKE like this.
    04-21-16 09:22 AM
  16. Corbu's Avatar
    SF, if you consider the following to be OT, please let me know and I will remove it. To me, while not directly related to BBRY, it indirectly is.
    Google?s Android Security Improves?for the Few - WSJ

    Only 4.6% of supported Android devices run latest, most security version

    Is Android safe? Alphabet Inc.’s Google says it is continuing to make its globally dominant mobile operating system safer. But despite a generally upbeat new security report from the company, the benefits are largely only for people who use a phone or tablet running a newer version of the OS and restrict their app downloads to Google’s own Play store.

    “It’s absolutely the case that Android is safe, but we’re always working to make it safer,” Adrian Ludwig, the lead engineer on the Android security team, said in an interview.

    There are more than one billion Android devices running Google’s apps and services, says the report—more than 60,000 distinct models. Google reports that about 70% of those devices are running KitKat 4.4 or newer, up from about 41% last year. That is important since KitKat, released in 2013, is the oldest version of the software still receiving Google’s regular security updates. Mr. Ludwig attributes this jump to the fact that, as older devices age out, Google continues lowering system requirements to run newer Android versions.

    The safest Android users are the small fraction—4.6%—who run Android 6 Marshmallow. It is the only version of the OS to offer full-disk encryption and new granular app permissions, which give users more control over what data they share with each app. By comparison, Apple Inc. says 84% of iOS users are running its most recent and safest version, iOS 9.

    Craig Young, a researcher with the cybersecurity firm Tripwire Inc., cautioned that while Google is making progress in getting more devices on supported versions of Android, the support doesn’t always reach consumers.

    "You can’t lump all these devices together and say they’re secure just because Google has come up with monthly patches,” Mr. Young said. “There’s a gray area of devices running 4.4 KitKat that haven’t gotten security updates because Google’s own updates have to go through hardware makers and carriers. Android is getting safer, but not every 4.4 KitKat device is equal.”

    In the past few months, hardware giants Samsung Electronics Co. and LG Electronics Inc. have begun issuing Google’s monthly security patches on newer devices. Nevertheless, Mr. Ludwig acknowledged that not enough manufacturers are issuing monthly updates, numbering just hundreds of phone and tablet models, not thousands. (The only guaranteed way to stay on the latest version of Android is to buy one of Google’s own Nexus-branded devices.)

    Mr. Ludwig said Google also now scans hundreds of millions of devices for “potentially harmful applications” through an opt-in security check that is built into the OS. Most devices are scanned weekly, but when a malicious app appears in a particular region, Google responds more quickly. Last year, when Google noticed a rise in harmful apps installed on devices in Russia, it started scanning Russian-language devices daily. “Our approach to scheduling over the last year has grown much more sophisticated,” he said.

    For users in general, Google says security improvements to its Google Play app store have dramatically reduced misbehavior by apps: Unauthorized data collection is down by 40% year over year, spyware is down by 60%, and other hostile takeovers have dropped by 50%.

    Overall, only 0.15% of devices that get all of their software from the Google Play store had “potentially harmful apps” installed, Google said. It is clearly safer to stick with Google Play: 0.5% of Android devices that also installed apps from other stores and sites had potentially harmful apps.

    Mr. Ludwig said an Android device is among the safest consumer computing options. “It’s certainly safer than legacy platforms like PCs,” he said. “You don’t see Android being involved in the mainline stories of attacks on financial institutions, education institutions, the government.”
    04-21-16 09:38 AM
  17. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Ok let me try to show what I'd believe indisputable on topic (and not violating usual copyright rules) ... as an example, only.

    Only 4.6% of supported Android devices run latest, most security version

    Is Android safe? Alphabet Inc.’s Google says it is continuing to make its globally dominant mobile operating system safer. But despite a generally upbeat new security report from the company, the benefits are largely only for people who use a phone or tablet running a newer version of the OS and restrict their app downloads to Google’s own Play store.

    There are more than one billion Android devices running Google’s apps and services, says the report—more than 60,000 distinct models. Google reports that about 70% of those devices are running KitKat 4.4 or newer, up from about 41% last year. That is important since KitKat, released in 2013, is the oldest version of the software still receiving Google’s regular security updates. Mr. Ludwig attributes this jump to the fact that, as older devices age out, Google continues lowering system requirements to run newer Android versions.

    The safest Android users are the small fraction—4.6%—who run Android 6 Marshmallow. It is the only version of the OS to offer full-disk encryption and new granular app permissions, which give users more control over what data they share with each app. By comparison, Apple Inc. says 84% of iOS users are running its most recent and safest version, iOS 9.

    Craig Young, a researcher with the cybersecurity firm Tripwire Inc., cautioned that while Google is making progress in getting more devices on supported versions of Android, the support doesn’t always reach consumers.
    [...]
    In the past few months, hardware giants Samsung Electronics Co. and LG Electronics Inc. have begun issuing Google’s monthly security patches on newer devices. Nevertheless, Mr. Ludwig acknowledged that not enough manufacturers are issuing monthly updates, numbering just hundreds of phone and tablet models, not thousands. (The only guaranteed way to stay on the latest version of Android is to buy one of Google’s own Nexus-branded devices.)
    Source : Google?s Android Security Improves?for the Few - WSJ

    In this article (requires subscription), Google's people state that :
    - 70% of Android devices are running KitKat 4.4 or newer
    - only 4.6% run Android 6 Marshmallow
    - and besides some manufacturers issuing monthly updates (w/o mentioning BlackBerry ) The only guaranteed way to stay on the latest version of Android is to buy one of Google’s own Nexus-branded devices

    Seems that BlackBerry anticipated this (updates, Marshmallow).
    They are delivering Alphabet's security update on release day 1 (sometimes 0) since they made the Priv available, not to mention intermediate updates for BlackBerry issued apps.
    So, they meet at least Nexus security levels and while it's not (by far) the most popular brand, there's no real reason future mid-range devices can't challenge in the near future. And that's good news for the HW division !

    P.S: Under what stone was the author living when BlackBerry published this ?

    *******
    Yes, that's a bit of extra work ... but ... isn't that more valuable ?

    Edit : I have another problem here ... this is a content that requires membership. Only the blue section should be copied and the rest, well, you have to mention it w/o quoting verbatim ... (blue paragraph before my comments).

    ******************
    yeah ... that's finally a load of extra work ...
    Last edited by Superfly_FR; 04-21-16 at 10:36 AM. Reason: Added the subscription problem
    morganplus8, rarsen and 3MIKE like this.
    04-21-16 09:56 AM
  18. jojo beaconsfield's Avatar
    Jojo, you're in the wrong thread!
    Sorry I forgot to Quote...Hassan00,,, comment #97622,lol
    3MIKE likes this.
    04-21-16 10:18 AM
  19. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Wow!!! Awesome analysis and made my day (year!) !! Lol... sitting on this train for the long ride up... hopefully, prem and I and other long time bbry investors who are deeply in the red on this company will see this very positive outcome! Thanks for brilliant analysis. I agree!! Chen is the man to make it so... with some good luck. Thanks Morgan!!!

    Posted via CB10
    THIS (additionally) made my day .
    04-21-16 10:51 AM
  20. morganplus8's Avatar
    Nice overview Morgan. .a couple of additional comments / thoughts:

    You've outlined a 30% organic growth scenario for software revenue growth, which is reasonable, but note that it includes IP revenues, which is lumpy and less predictable

    You didn't account for other near-term cash flows outside of software, but I suspect that was intentional. We also have the legacy SAF net cash flows, and future SR&ED tax credits, so this would go onto the books / bbry share price as well.

    Comps will start to look better soon, but only if they can stabilize revenues in the HW division. That's as critical as eliminating losses in HW, because you don't really want to try to sell something that's shrinking AND losing money. Chen seemed to think things were very close, so I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt.

    But ultimately once HW is close to stable on both revs and losses, As a shareholder I personally would prefer them to keep it, because aside from the 'consumer wildcard' factor that everyone seems too focused on, it gives them a complete end to end security approach with enterprise, it helps to leverage opportunities for developing, licensing or selling BlackBerry apps/ software to the Android community (via a test group), there are likely many crossover HW applications in IOT, etc etc. Still it might end up as one of the thinnest hardware operations in the world...basically IP, design, some software, a brand, and an enterprise-focused sales channel.

    Posted via CB10
    As you know, my response was getting a bit long winded. I thought that if somebody reads it and has a comment on my work we will address it then. I wanted to get BB's instant (sans HW) EPS improvement into the $ .60 - $ .80 realm and leave it there for others to fine tune. Any more detail risked putting CB members to sleep, so I moved on.

    The SW growth of 30% was addressed by Chen who tried to break it out as 24% pure software and 6% "other" which is like saying, "we will do one IP deal next year". To me, that seems realistic as they are ramping up legal action, not winding it down here. My personal take on SAF is, "how the heck is it holding up so well"? Dumping Z10 phones produced some side benefits there ... (I'm inclined to think now). I tried to keep my personal feelings out of the HW debate in order to promote my Convertible Bond theory. For the record, I have stated many times that I think HW should stay, that they should dump all but three NA carriers, go to direct sales and reduce breakeven to sub 1,000,000 levels, and, if needed to spin off the HW division to that of a 51% ownership, or controlled entity, that is off the books. I think HW can make tons of money for BlackBerry and it can occur this year if Chen would streamline it for online sales and grow again from there. So I'm a hardware junky in that way. Lastly, I think we have heard for far too long that, "QNX is in over 60 MM vehicles", are you not getting tired of hearing this? When I hear this I think QNX is failing miserably as that number started out to be an official claim years ago now. Think of all the cars produced and sold in the past two years, we must be much higher. Secondly, QNX couldn't flex their margins back in the acquisition period for BlackBerry but today they have strength in scale. We should begin to think about QNX as a world leader in its sector and something that commands superior premiums to all others, no longer should it be relegated to the "too small to matter" category of BlackBerry's balance sheet.

    That's all I'll say about their balance sheet minus HW; or with adjustments.

    Talking about the Convertible Bonds, here is my argument for Prem and others using their bonds for cost averaging down their prior BBRY investments. Prem holds 43 MM BBRY shares at an AC of $ 17.34/shr and 50 MM shares at a conversion of $ 10.00/shr. On the surface that looks doable and he can breakeven, which is not his goal by the way, but it works. So what if the bonds are purchased for a $ 10.40 share equivalent at the beginning of November? He gets $ 10.40/shr equiv. and that exposes his real cost of 43 MM shares again at $ 17.34/shr. By losing 50 MM shares he and others make nothing on their AC of the stock held at higher levels. So what can he do? He has to think of a way to protect his lower cost average (AC) by purchasing cheaper shares today or hope that BBRY goes above $ 10.00 a share and thus BB tends to dismiss the bond repurchase program all together. For BB's part, they are legally able to retire BBRY stock today knowing what they will be doing this Fall. What I'm getting at is that we have a strong argument for BlackBerry to buy back shares this summer along with guys like Prem who must protect their investment should the bond offering get retired. If Prem and others sit on their hands and let Chen buy back those bonds, the ability to stop a takeover flies out the window which will draw others into a fresh review of the company itself. I think the stock can move up from here on the basis that Chen has stated he will purchase a large quantity of those bonds in November. Prem sold 9 MM BBRY shares a couple of years ago because he held bond protection against a lower takeover of the company. Today, he needs those shares, and what ever shares Chen takes away from him in November. A smart Hedge Fund would see how this is shaping up and start to acquire BBRY stock today.

    For us, the bottom is in, we really don't care what the next two Q's look like because there are bigger fish to fry here. Chen is in the drivers seat for the balance of this calendar year.

    Sorry, I missed a comment on Comps. I mentioned awhile back that Comps become a whole lot better in Fiscal 2017 as we drop off some of those terrible YtoY comparisons. This is still the case today as, well, those F2015 numbers were just that bad. A minor issue but still a good one when you get tired of hearing we came up short on YtoY by 41%!
    Last edited by morganplus8; 04-21-16 at 11:50 AM.
    04-21-16 11:27 AM
  21. Corbu's Avatar
    Awesome post, Morgan. Thank you sir.
    04-21-16 11:36 AM
  22. Ribes Nigrum's Avatar
    As you know, my response was getting a bit long winded. I thought that if somebody reads it and has a comment on my work we will address it then. I wanted to get BB's instant (sans HW) EPS improvement into the $ .60 - $ .80 realm and leave it there for others to fine tune. Any more detail risked putting CB members to sleep, so I moved on.

    The SW growth of 30% was addressed by Chen who tried to break it out as 24% pure software and 6% "other" which is like saying, "we will do one IP deal next year". To me, that seems realistic as they are ramping up legal action, not winding it down here. My personal take on SAF is, "how the heck is it holding up so well"? Dumping Z10 phones produced some side benefits there ... (I'm inclined to think now). I tried to keep my personal feelings out of the HW debate in order to promote my Convertible Bond theory. For the record, I have stated many times that I think HW should stay, that they should dump all but three NA carriers, go to direct sales and reduce breakeven to sub 1,000,000 levels, and, if needed to spin off the HW division to that of a 51% ownership, or controlled entity, that is off the books. I think HW can make tons of money for BlackBerry and it can occur this year if Chen would streamline it for online sales and grow again from there. So I'm a hardware junky in that way. Lastly, I think we have heard for far too long that, "QNX is in over 60 MM vehicles", are you not getting tired of hearing this? When I hear this I think QNX is failing miserably as that number started out to be an official claim years ago now. Think of all the cars produced and sold in the past two years, we must be much higher. Secondly, QNX couldn't flex their margins back in the acquisition period for BlackBerry but today they have strength in scale. We should begin to think about QNX as a world leader in its sector and something that commands superior premiums to all others, no longer should it be relegated to the "too small to matter" category of BlackBerry's balance sheet.

    That's all I'll say about their balance sheet minus HW; or with adjustments.

    Talking about the Convertible Bonds, here is my argument for Prem and others using their bonds for cost averaging down their prior BBRY investments. Prem holds 43 MM BBRY shares at an AC of $ 17.34/shr and 50 MM shares at a conversion of $ 10.00/shr. On the surface that looks doable and he can breakeven, which is not his goal by the way, but it works. So what if the bonds are purchased for a $ 10.40 share equivalent at the beginning of November? He gets $ 10.40/shr equiv. and that exposes his real cost of 43 MM shares again at $ 17.34/shr. By losing 50 MM shares he and others make nothing on their AC of the stock held at higher levels. So what can he do? He has to think of a way to protect his lower cost average (AC) by purchasing cheaper shares today or hope that BBRY goes above $ 10.00 a share and thus BB tends to dismiss the bond repurchase program all together. For BB's part, they are legally able to retire BBRY stock today knowing what they will be doing this Fall. What I'm getting at is that we have a strong argument for BlackBerry to buy back shares this summer along with guys like Prem who must protect their investment should the bond offering get retired. If Prem and others sit on their hands and let Chen buy back those bonds, the ability to stop a takeover flies out the window which will draw others into a fresh review of the company itself. I think the stock can move up from here on the basis that Chen has stated he will purchase a large quantity of those bonds in November. Prem sold 9 MM BBRY shares a couple of years ago because he held bond protection against a lower takeover of the company. Today, he needs those shares, and what ever shares Chen takes away from him in November. A smart Hedge Fund would see how this is shaping up and start to acquire BBRY stock today.

    For us, the bottom is in, we really don't care what the next two Q's look like because there are bigger fish to fry here. Chen is in the drivers seat for the balance of this calendar year.

    Sorry, I missed a comment on Comps. I mentioned awhile back that Comps become a whole lot better in Fiscal 2017 as we drop off some of those terrible YtoY comparisons. This is still the case today as, well, those F2015 numbers were just that bad. A minor issue but still a good one when you get tired of hearing we came up short on YtoY by 41%!
    As a shareholder and a BlackBerry fan I like your ideas about keeping hardware. I've seen a partial leak or two from the upcoming devices on Instagram. When it comes to designing/ building phones BlackBerry is very able. Throwing that knowledge away would be a waste. Thanks for your insight on the bonds.

    "I can actually use CB10 shortcuts on this Q5!"
    morganplus8, Corbu, bbjdog and 6 others like this.
    04-21-16 12:11 PM
  23. Corbu's Avatar
    04-21-16 01:26 PM
  24. Andy_bb_king's Avatar
    A good read!

    http://mobile.itbusinessedge.com/blo...e-problem.html


    Posted from my trusted Passport
    sidhuk, morganplus8, W Hoa and 9 others like this.
    04-21-16 04:00 PM
  25. morganplus8's Avatar
    Two things, (1) what a great find, and, (2) how did you pry this from Corbu?

    That is one of the best stories I have heard in awhile. Nice.

    Thanks
    04-21-16 04:38 PM
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