View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1104. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.77%
  • No

    411 37.23%
  1. OnTheFence001's Avatar
    They have worked out BB10 for the 808 (?) in the passport. They can use these chips as part of the "update" cycle without committing more $ to developing drivers (I think this is what Chen said the big cost in BB10 is). Revamped Leap and Classic with the 808. I agree they should also license the hardware production. Def could save something there...
    b121 likes this.
    04-06-16 01:40 PM
  2. _dimi_'s Avatar
    Sadly.. the market thinks otherwise....

    Posted via CB10
    Try seeing a more positive side of things? You've always been a (positive) realist, and I always enjoy reading your posts. Right now, JC has given himself (only!) 5 more months to rightsize the business. They could throw more devices at it, but that comes at a unnecessary cost/risk. I think PRIV, in combination with BB10 legacy devices, have what it takes to get to break-even. Remember, break-even is officially 750k devices (at 315 asp) now and could be even lower as suggested by Morgan. Worst case, he bought time to get a much better deal and further unwind their inventory/purchase commitments.

    Posted via CB10
    04-06-16 02:26 PM
  3. DaSchwantz's Avatar
    Here's what I think. The market is still very focused on device sales because that is the world they know. Chen, and therefore BlackBerry, is successfully transitioning to an enterprise focused 'back-end' software / security services company. As a shareholder, I like that...it's high margin, optimizes their brand value as best of breed, and can provide predictable long-term revenues as they already dominate the space, and have successfully quashed the 'bankruptcy' nonsense that started pervading their client space several years ago. Personally I still think they should put an exclamation mark at the end by waiting for the right moment to take out MOBL cheap solely to move the entire client base onto bb-good platforms /products (and rub Faucette's nose in his own dirt).

    That being said, with increasing software revenues still being hampered by decreasing SAF revenues over the next year, the market will still focus on HW, because it's this big chunk of revenues that provides the biggest risk/reward prospects for the SP. It's no wonder people have opinions and emotions. Yet everyone is ignoring the fact that Chen has brought the cost-structure down to a point where it really isn't the make or break proposition that people seem to think it is. Still the question marks he regularly leaves everyone with are helping to kill those same prospects. Slow death, or maybe, slow rebirth.

    In the end, HW for BlackBerry IS already ENTIRELY about marketing. Marketing software, that is. The Priv is a pilot device to sell Hub etc to the entire Android world. Future BB10 devices are about selling complete end to end security to government, financial, health care, etc. They both help feed into the QNX and IoT space. Chen just needs to commit.



    Posted via CB10
    04-06-16 02:38 PM
  4. digitalsurfboard's Avatar
    Here's my theory.

    Hardware is dead.

    Chen knows it.

    He can't close the division because the moment he does, the SAF and other hardware related revenue starts plummeting at a rate that throws everything out of balance.

    He will keep stringing hardware along until revenue from new software and services can make up for the losses.
    04-06-16 02:49 PM
  5. Corbu's Avatar
    04-06-16 03:06 PM
  6. Iggy City's Avatar
    Trying to revive BB10 is like...



    It had it's chance and BlackBerry has to let it go if they want to move forward.
    DREXcb likes this.
    04-06-16 03:29 PM
  7. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    Here's my theory.

    Hardware is dead.

    Chen knows it.

    He can't close the division because the moment he does, the SAF and other hardware related revenue starts plummeting at a rate that throws everything out of balance.

    He will keep stringing hardware along until revenue from new software and services can make up for the losses.
    At this point, I doubt many or the 300K or so BB10 devices are selling to consumers... most are enterprise, so that is either keeping existing users on BES or maybe even adding a few new licences. The problem is if BlackBerry says no more BB10 devices... what will those accounts do? I don't think Chen want to find out until he has his own solution in place.
    CDM76 likes this.
    04-06-16 03:37 PM
  8. world traveler and former ceo's Avatar
    Try seeing a more positive side of things? You've always been a (positive) realist, and I always enjoy reading your posts. Right now, JC has given himself (only!) 5 more months to rightsize the business. They could throw more devices at it, but that comes at a unnecessary cost/risk. I think PRIV, in combination with BB10 legacy devices, have what it takes to get to break-even. Remember, break-even is officially 750k devices (at 315 asp) now and could be even lower as suggested by Morgan. Worst case, he bought time to get a much better deal and further unwind their inventory/purchase commitments.

    Posted via CB10
    Thanks Dimi... I go back with BlackBerry more than I care to admit.. using their products since 2003 exclusively... and sadly as investor the past ten... I admit to having had a great career starting and creating a successful tech company which was then sold.. 2001... as an investor I made all the mistakes.. long and hold..anyway..i am down $2m now after all these years of patience with BlackBerry... still using their products while most of my colleagues have moved on...

    I realize Chen is a superstar and there is always next quarter... next year...my fault... should have pulled out of the stock a long time ago and moved on.. die hard to the end it seems at this point.. like Prem watsa.. have no choice... as titanic sinks...



    Posted via CB10
    _dimi_ and KuroKei like this.
    04-06-16 03:50 PM
  9. _dimi_'s Avatar
    I agree with DaSchwantz. MOBL could be BlackBerry's ticket to easy revenue. Their stock has performed well recently but if that reflects the state they're in? Coverage initiated by Sterne Agee resulted in a 'buy' with 7.5 USD pt. The question is, would JC be interested? BlackBerry is one of the few companies that could reap rewards of an acquistion relatively easy/soon? Sorry to target you with my questions every single time, Morgan.. :-D

    Posted via CB10
    3MIKE likes this.
    04-06-16 03:54 PM
  10. jojo beaconsfield's Avatar
    Jesus Christ ,if I had you're money I wouldn't worry ,2 Q's and you will know you made another fortune,lol,and hang in there
    3MIKE and CDM76 like this.
    04-06-16 03:57 PM
  11. Corbu's Avatar
    OT:
    And another good day for HALO and ACAD
    04-06-16 04:06 PM
  12. _dimi_'s Avatar
    Thanks Dimi... I go back with BlackBerry more than I care to admit.. using their products since 2003 exclusively... and sadly as investor the past ten... I admit to having had a great career starting and creating a successful tech company which was then sold.. 2001... as an investor I made all the mistakes.. long and hold..anyway..i am down $2m now after all these years of patience with BlackBerry... still using their products while most of my colleagues have moved on...

    I realize Chen is a superstar and there is always next quarter... next year...my fault... should have pulled out of the stock a long time ago and moved on.. die hard to the end it seems at this point.. like Prem watsa.. have no choice... as titanic sinks...



    Posted via CB10
    I'm sorry to hear that. It's never too late to find a better balance in life. You can be loyal/invest and plan for a future regardless of the outcome? Go start a new tech company Perhaps, when you're done, sell it to BlackBerry and make them pay for it ;-)


    Posted via CB10
    04-06-16 04:09 PM
  13. bbjdog's Avatar
    Please correct me if I'm wrong. Previous quarter SAF fees @ 31% and this quarter they stood at 29%, that equals to only 2 % drop. Any thoughts?

    Posted via my BlackBerry Passport
    Munx likes this.
    04-06-16 04:16 PM
  14. _dimi_'s Avatar
    Please correct me if I'm wrong. Previous quarter SAF fees @ 31% and this quarter they stood at 29%, that equals to only 2 % drop. Any thoughts?

    Posted via my BlackBerry Passport
    Total revenue dropped significantly

    Posted via CB10
    bbjdog likes this.
    04-06-16 04:26 PM
  15. digitalsurfboard's Avatar
    At this point, I doubt many or the 300K or so BB10 devices are selling to consumers... most are enterprise, so that is either keeping existing users on BES or maybe even adding a few new licences. The problem is if BlackBerry says no more BB10 devices... what will those accounts do? I don't think Chen want to find out until he has his own solution in place.
    actually, i have a feeling that bb10 is selling more to die hard consumers than enterprise.

    without enterprise apps like citrix or crm like salesforce, businesses are being forced to android or iOS. the app gap isn't just a consumer thing.

    i don't know about regulated industries, but most government doesn't need bb10. maybe just a select few departments. however, there was someone a few pages ago that said he was with DoD and was using a Priv.
    CDM76 likes this.
    04-06-16 04:51 PM
  16. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    [info]
    Play Nice, Be Helpful, and have Respect!
    [/info]
    This means keep the language clean, keep your posts polite, and don’t get into arguments over dumb things. If somebody responds to a thread you posted in poor fashion, ignore it, and the moderation team will quickly clean it up (you can always message or email a moderator at any time if you observe anything that is in poor taste/against the rules). Think back to what your parentals and teachers used to lecture -

    if you don't have something nice to say, don't say anything at all
    .

    Always remember that we are all unique and at different levels here - some of us are experienced BlackBerry users and forum junkies, while others are just starting out. If you’re on the experienced side, have patience for those just joining in on the fun and be helpful. With a little patience and a little help they won’t be newbies for long. Also remember that it is our differences that keeps this place interesting. If everyone was from the same place and at the same experience level it would be boring. This is a worldwide community united by a common interest - our love, or addiction as some would call it, for the BlackBerry!
    ZayDub, 3MIKE, Sigewif and 1 others like this.
    04-06-16 04:55 PM
  17. morganplus8's Avatar
    I agree with DaSchwantz. MOBL could be BlackBerry's ticket to easy revenue. Their stock has performed well recently but if that reflects the state they're in? Coverage initiated by Sterne Agee resulted in a 'buy' with 7.5 USD pt. The question is, would JC be interested? BlackBerry is one of the few companies that could reap rewards of an acquistion relatively easy/soon? Sorry to target you with my questions every single time, Morgan.. :-D

    Posted via CB10
    Hi _dimi_

    No problem! We are just killing time until we get more information on BlackBerry anyway. The problem that I see with MOBL is the valuation, they want at least 2.0 times sales less cash and that is too rich. For BB, it means paying as much for MOBL as they did for Good and I believe its worth at least 20% less than that value, and sinking each quarter! The MOBL stock price is been maintained by the underwriters and they consistently target $ 7.00/shr which is ridiculous. It isn't possible to "fairly" buy a company that artificially sets its stock price. For us, we have Prem, he keeps the offers away as it is clear to everyone interested that something North of $ 15.00/shr is the starting point for BlackBerry and you have to get Prem to sell his stock or there is no deal.

    If you have a chance, punch in $ 160 sales/80 MM shares for MOBL and do the same with BBRY at $ 700/Fiscal 2017 versus 515 MM shares. we are dirt cheap and a far more, well diversified, risk free environment to boot. Look at what the CEO is doing to pump up the numbers, he literally stops spending and sales costs to lower his cost per signed contract numbers each quarter. Chen has to be patient, compete with MOBL and hurt their business out in the field, and wait for cash to burn away. Once that "cash and promises" train sets sail, MOBL will be had for 1/2 the price and he knows it.
    ZayDub, Corbu, bbjdog and 9 others like this.
    04-06-16 05:29 PM
  18. app_Developer's Avatar
    If you have a chance, punch in $ 160 sales/80 MM shares for MOBL and do the same with BBRY at $ 700/Fiscal 2017 versus 515 MM shares. we are dirt cheap and a far more, well diversified, risk free environment to boot.
    So if BBRY at $7.10 is dirt cheap, what would you consider a fair value right now?
    04-06-16 08:20 PM
  19. W Hoa's Avatar
    For those clamoring for more marketing and the dollars to support it:


    Samsung Electronics Co. posted a better-than expected first-quarter profit ...
    Operating income rose to 6.6 trillion won ($5.7 billion) in the three months ended March...

    “The biggest reason for the sharply improved profitability is largely due to much lower marketing spending for the mobile business,” said Yoo Eui Hyung, an analyst

    Samsung Beats Estimates - Bloomberg
    04-06-16 08:56 PM
  20. b121's Avatar
    They have worked out BB10 for the 808 (?) in the passport. They can use these chips as part of the "update" cycle without committing more $ to developing drivers (I think this is what Chen said the big cost in BB10 is). Revamped Leap and Classic with the 808. I agree they should also license the hardware production. Def could save something there...
    Thanks for the post. To build on this, I don't understand why they don't run android and bb10 on the same form factors, so the only difference is the software. It reduces cost and inventory risk. They can have the priv and the passport (and maybe one other model).
    ZayDub likes this.
    04-06-16 10:28 PM
  21. Andrew4life's Avatar
    Thanks for the post. To build on this, I don't understand why they don't run android and bb10 on the same form factors, so the only difference is the software. It reduces cost and inventory risk. They can have the priv and the passport (and maybe one other model).
    The BlackBerry Passport has the snapdragon 801. That is the only SOC that BlackBerry has drivers for.

    If they want the Priv to run BB10, they would have to pay Qualcomm to make drivers for BB10 for the 808, which is what the Priv runs.

    I don't know what the cost is for the drivers, but it's probably in the millions. BlackBerry is a tiny customer to Qualcomm so they have no incentive to be nice.

    Posted via CB10
    Superfly_FR, 3MIKE, rarsen and 4 others like this.
    04-06-16 11:30 PM
  22. yessuz's Avatar
    So if BBRY at $7.10 is dirt cheap, what would you consider a fair value right now?
    should be in teens. cash only is like half of the capitalizations at the moment :/
    CDM76 and bungaboy like this.
    04-07-16 03:42 AM
  23. CDM76's Avatar

    i don't know about regulated industries, but most government doesn't need bb10. maybe just a select few departments. however, there was someone a few pages ago that said he was with DoD and was using a Priv.
    I know that Shared Services Canada (Canadian Government IT Dept) had problems implementing BB10 for my Dept and they pulled all the devices from service (in my dept). I'm unsure if they are at least testing the Priv yet, but everyone in my office is currently still getting issued legacy devices (about 4-5k phones a year).

    Posted via CB10
    bbjdog, rarsen and morganplus8 like this.
    04-07-16 03:54 AM
  24. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Not sure what is allowed to state publicly but I've heard "somewhere" that there's a BES/BB10 deployment at DOD currently ramping up.
    Take it for WIW : as a semi-valid info.
    3MIKE, bbjdog, bungaboy and 3 others like this.
    04-07-16 04:32 AM
  25. 3MIKE's Avatar
    GOOGLE and BlackBerry meeting today at 11:00.

    You have to register to listen.



    https://cc.readytalk.com/cc/s/regist...inkId=23127897
    04-07-16 06:20 AM
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