View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1110. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    694 62.52%
  • No

    416 37.48%
  1. spiller's Avatar
    Thanks Corbu... interesting Q7 and A7.....

    "Growth of software and services.... monetization of IP, IOT devices.... acquisitions...."

    What's missing in the answer?..... HW/mobile phones....

    Did I interpret correctly?

    Posted via CB10
    They aren't planning on HW to increase rev/EPS. If they breakeven great. If they don't hardware is done. To increase SP they will dwindle down purchase commitments, buy back debt (saving ~19M per quarter or 4c eps?), increase software organically 30% Y/Y (more than offsetting SAF loss), gains in QNX auto licencing, Radar / IoT. By the time the hardware dust settles I think they will be a 1.2B (steady for a few years until SAF is completely dried up then software can slowly increase above this 1.2B number) software and services company with 1B in cash, no debt. If they can sell hardware business or patents great. Someone must think their hardware IP is valuable enough....
    04-05-16 01:02 PM
  2. spiller's Avatar
    It's gonna rain again... Remember last summer I called bbry $6 when it's at 9? TAwise, this time it's going to be $6 at best, but $4 if worst.

    Be prepared. Lol.

    Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android
    They lost 3c EPS on 470M revenue. Everyone knows if they get rid of hardware this is a $10 stock and a profitable business, and that's on the table for this year. The LOL is on you.
    sidhuk, _dimi_, bbjdog and 7 others like this.
    04-05-16 01:04 PM
  3. spiller's Avatar
    AAPL spends over $1 billion a year on advertising. There's no way BBRY could come even close to that spending budget. If they were to jump into some sort of campaign, it would have to be sustained for a while, not just a quarter. They are in a tough spot when it comes to consumer perception and hopefully can somehow, some day, overcome that.

    Posted via CB10
    1B for all products right? Watch, Macs, Phones, iPads. What do they spend on their annual (e.g. 6s) phones.
    04-05-16 01:13 PM
  4. early2bed's Avatar
    They lost 3c EPS on 470M revenue. Everyone knows if they get rid of hardware this is a $10 stock and a profitable business, and that's on the table for this year. The LOL is on you.
    Or, they can do a $100M on a modest ad campaign and see what happens to their earnings (not promising). Look at what Microsoft spent on Windows Phone 7 years ago:

    Jonathan Goldberg, a telecommunications analyst at Deutsche Bank, estimates that Microsoft will spend $400 million on marketing alone for the Windows Phone 7 launch.
    04-05-16 01:13 PM
  5. anon(8865116)'s Avatar
    They lost 3c EPS on 470M revenue. Everyone knows if they get rid of hardware this is a $10 stock and a profitable business, and that's on the table for this year. The LOL is on you.
    I don't think they can get rid of hardware that easily, and even if they could, it would be expensive in the short term. There are a ton of people with bbos7 and bb10 devices still, especially governments. If they decided to bail now on both, those governments would probably never buy a blackberry product again, software or hardware. Don't forget the cash charge for all the severance packages for executives and employees as well.

    It's still on the table obviously but I doubt the news would be received kindly by any party except for the other android oems.
    04-05-16 01:14 PM
  6. spiller's Avatar
    Anyone think they can actually hit 3 million devices? I think they can if they get the other two devices out early FY 2017. What I'm concerned about is whether they can keep the break even at 3 million with new mid range devices. I actually find it pretty crazy that the Priv was only 40% of devices sold (from corbu). I wonder if we'll see any significant impact to sales when the Priv hits $500 retail
    Chen said 3M devices at $3xx asp. So if they sell the phone marginally above cost direct to enterprise they can break even with the mid range with the $4xx retail price.
    Dunt Dunt Dunt likes this.
    04-05-16 01:14 PM
  7. Corbu's Avatar
    OT:
    Facebook?s WhatsApp Launches ?End-to-End? Encryption - WSJ

    WhatsApp texting service strengthens encryption so only sender and receiver can read message contents

    Facebook Inc.s WhatsApp texting service said it had strengthened its encryption so only the sender and receiver are able to read the contents of messages.

    WhatsApp has been working since late 2014 to ensure the encryption works on different mobile-phone platforms and for different types of messages. On Tuesday, a spokesman said the more secure encryption is now available for all of the services one billion users.

    In 2014, text messages were encrypted, but WhatsApp group messages and messages containing media, such as photos or videos, werent encrypted.

    While we recognize the important work of law enforcement in keeping people safe, efforts to weaken encryption risk exposing peoples information to abuse from cybercriminals, hackers, and rogue states, WhatsApp CEO Jan Koum said in a Tuesday blog post.

    Facebooks move comes as the nation debates the uses and limits of encryption technology. During the past month, Apple Inc. and the Federal Bureau of Investigation have been locked in a bitter struggle over the FBIs demands that Apple help unlock its mobile phones.

    The FBI contends that it will be less effective without ways to tap into the communications of terrorists and criminals. Apple and other technology companies argue that encryption is essential to protecting consumer privacy.

    The Justice Department suspended one case against Apple after saying it found another way to extract data from the phone of San Bernardino shooter Syed Rizwan Farook. But about a dozen other cases are pending in federal court, and local prosecutors say they have hundreds of encrypted phones that are stymying investigations.

    During a technology conference in February, Facebook Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg said: I dont think requiring back doors into encryption is either going to be an effective way to increase security or is really the right thing to do.

    WhatsApp is using encryption software built by Open Whisper Systems, a not-for-profit security-development group.

    Many Internet companies encrypt messages before they are stored on their servers, but they typically are able to decrypt them when necessaryfor example, in the case of a court order.

    With Open Whispers technology, WhatsApp wont be able to read its customers messages under any circumstances, a feature known as end-to-end encryption. That will make it more difficult for anyoneincluding criminals, intelligence agencies and law enforcementto read WhatsApp messages without permission, said Moxie Marlinspike, founder of Open Whisper Systems.

    End-to-end encryption ensures that the messages you send can only be read by their intended recipients, he said.

    The encryption technology will be turned on by default, so WhatsApp users wont have to change any settings to enable it, Mr. Marlinspike said.

    Apple offers end-to-end encryption for its iMessage and FaceTime messaging services.
    04-05-16 01:17 PM
  8. spiller's Avatar
    They still archive chats on their servers. Does that stay encrypted?
    sidhuk, Corbu and bbjdog like this.
    04-05-16 01:19 PM
  9. early2bed's Avatar
    Chen said 3M devices at $3xx asp. So if they sell the phone marginally above cost direct to enterprise they can break even with the mid range with the $4xx retail price.
    The lower your volume the higher the percentage of costs that are fixed. If he originally thought that he needed 10 million to break even, then revised it to 5 million, and now 3 million units then you need a lot more margin per unit to cover the fixed costs.
    04-05-16 01:21 PM
  10. morganplus8's Avatar
    So how low is Apple going to go, Morgan? Are we talking -15% or like a proper crash? Would you say there's a correlation between not asking consumers what they want and stock performance? Looking at it long term, as always.

    Posted via CB10
    It's not about whether a crash is coming, its a "risk on" story, how can you pay $ 111.00 today for a one trick pony? Three quarters of their business and hence their valuation comes from phones and we aren't seeing anything new out of these guys. Heck, I would consider buying the stock if they knew how to manage things. Per dollar held, they are the poorest investors in infrastructure and diversification. If they had purchased Tesla, or Netflix or any of the hot companies, and diversified, it would look a whole lot better for them. Instead, they **** heads with the Feds even though they don't have real security, they hold cash which is like saying to the investment world that, "we are too stupid to invest in anything else nor do we have any idea what to do with our money."

    These risk factors along with poor choices like the watch, 4 inch phone etc., make you want to look elsewhere. For me, it is worth $ 80.00/shr right now and even then I would hedge my trade. To use other posters questionable numbers, can you assume that a $ 399.00 phone with $ 250.00 in ASP is the same thing as a $ 699.00 phone with an ASP of $ 250.00? As crazy an assumption as that is, revenues collapse under that scenario. This isn't a linear problem, it is a logistics problem with throwing too many products at the system in the hopes of something doing better then the past. Apple is terrible at innovation and they are even more terrible at investment in the future.

    I see the stock being supported in good times because Funds hold it for the dividend, but that can change radically because no one expects to ever see growth in the company itself.

    BlackBerry in comparison has options, they can go after the 80/20% rule, the low lying fruit of their HW business and turn that sector around, Apple can't, as soon as Chen figures this out, the HW business will work again. Chen is flexible and driven, Cook has no experience in turning a giant company into a more diverse one and few have that kind of capability to be true. I shorted AAPL when the 5S came out and it is clearly a short again but it will take time to evolve as long as the general market holds up here. So walk away from it but watch for signs of it rolling over as it will affect the overall market too, including BBRY and so on.
    sidhuk, Corbu, Jahcure and 10 others like this.
    04-05-16 01:22 PM
  11. DeRedder's Avatar
    What the ..... are you on about?
    they sold 30 million 4 inch phones. 30 million people wanted a 4 inch phone. They updated the internal hardware on said phone. That is all. what part of that don't you understand? cook has no experience in managing a 100 billion dollar tech company? Nobody in the world has that experience
    04-05-16 01:39 PM
  12. DeRedder's Avatar
    " poor choices like the watch" < in less than 6 months they have more than 50% of the total market, which has been around for 4 years. Tell Samsung, Sony, Pebble, HTC, Motorola and many more that smartwatches are a poor choice, because they are already fighting for scraps now
    04-05-16 01:49 PM
  13. bbjdog's Avatar
    It's not about whether a crash is coming, its a "risk on" story, how can you pay $ 111.00 today for a one trick pony? Three quarters of their business and hence their valuation comes from phones and we aren't seeing anything new out of these guys. Heck, I would consider buying the stock if they knew how to manage things. Per dollar held, they are the poorest investors in infrastructure and diversification. If they had purchased Tesla, or Netflix or any of the hot companies, and diversified, it would look a whole lot better for them. Instead, they **** heads with the Feds even though they don't have real security, they hold cash which is like saying to the investment world that, "we are too stupid to invest in anything else nor do we have any idea what to do with our money."

    These risk factors along with poor choices like the watch, 4 inch phone etc., make you want to look elsewhere. For me, it is worth $ 80.00/shr right now and even then I would hedge my trade. To use other posters questionable numbers, can you assume that a $ 399.00 phone with $ 250.00 in ASP is the same thing as a $ 699.00 phone with an ASP of $ 250.00? As crazy an assumption as that is, revenues collapse under that scenario. This isn't a linear problem, it is a logistics problem with throwing too many products at the system in the hopes of something doing better then the past. Apple is terrible at innovation and they are even more terrible at investment in the future.

    I see the stock being supported in good times because Funds hold it for the dividend, but that can change radically because no one expects to ever see growth in the company itself.

    BlackBerry in comparison has options, they can go after the 80/20% rule, the low lying fruit of their HW business and turn that sector around, Apple can't, as soon as Chen figures this out, the HW business will work again. Chen is flexible and driven, Cook has no experience in turning a giant company into a more diverse one and few have that kind of capability to be true. I shorted AAPL when the 5S came out and it is clearly a short again but it will take time to evolve as long as the general market holds up here. So walk away from it but watch for signs of it rolling over as it will affect the overall market too, including BBRY and so on.
    Worth a repost!

    Posted via my BlackBerry Passport
    04-05-16 01:53 PM
  14. Jahcure's Avatar
    I'm calling it now, Apple will test $92 again and every single bluechip will test their January and February lows before November. The Brexit and Greece debacle coming up will kick start it all which happens to fall when the sell in May stuff starts. The fun really begins when the oil summer contracts end. GL

    Everyone should be used to BlackBerry stock by now; up, dip after ER then rise for a good run.

    Posted via CB10
    04-05-16 01:56 PM
  15. cjcampbell's Avatar
    What the ..... are you on about?
    they sold 30 million 4 inch phones. 30 million people wanted a 4 inch phone. They updated the internal hardware on said phone. That is all. what part of that don't you understand? cook has no experience in managing a 100 billion dollar tech company? Nobody in the world has that experience
    30 million people didn't "want" a 4 inch phone..... 30 million people wanted a cheap, or zero cost iPhone.

    Posted via CB10
    04-05-16 02:02 PM
  16. morganplus8's Avatar
    AAPL spends over $1 billion a year on advertising. There's no way BBRY could come even close to that spending budget. If they were to jump into some sort of campaign, it would have to be sustained for a while, not just a quarter. They are in a tough spot when it comes to consumer perception and hopefully can somehow, some day, overcome that.

    Posted via CB10
    Just to support what you are saying, BlackBerry's S G & A during Heins' period was $ 750 MM a quarter, far greater than Apple at that time. They spent materially more across the board on patent development and advertising than Apple. The problem is that you need to have something that is marketable in order for that spend to stick. The Z10 wasn't the phone to get BB back on its feet and now we all know what happened when that money ran dry. So you can't just spend your way to success. Nor did Apple think it was necessary to spend their way to success. They were selling what consumers wanted and BlackBerry wasn't. The penalty for making that mistake is to start over with a tiny budget, and get your HW in order and that is what Chen is trying to do. The irony of it all is that if and when BB gets the right product to market, it will sell itself, they will advertise because they can, not because they have to.

    I haven't seen an advertisement for a Morgan car in many years, I know that I have to find $ 120,000 to go get one though. The same with Rolex, do you really need to see an ad to decide whether you deserve a Rolex? LOL It is all about branding, for BB, it is security first, they need to advertise that above all else, it is their bread and butter.
    Jahcure, cjcampbell, Corbu and 9 others like this.
    04-05-16 02:04 PM
  17. cjcampbell's Avatar
    " poor choices like the watch" < in less than 6 months they have more than 50% of the total market, which has been around for 4 years. Tell Samsung, Sony, Pebble, HTC, Motorola and many more that smartwatches are a poor choice, because they are already fighting for scraps now
    Apple fans can be fanatical. The issue with the Apple watch is that it is limited to only Apple users, which is approximately 20% of smartphone users. Also, if it were soooo successful, then Apple would have separated it during their er as they are definitely not shy to tell the world of their superiority.

    Posted via CB10
    morganplus8, Corbu, bbjdog and 7 others like this.
    04-05-16 02:07 PM
  18. Klipspringers Shoes's Avatar
    Apple fans can be fanatical. The issue with the Apple watch is that it is limited to only Apple users, which is approximately 20% of smartphone users. Also, if it were soooo successful, then Apple would have separated it during their er as they are definitely not shy to tell the world of their superiority.

    Posted via CB10
    Yes, and for Usain Bolt, 9.80 is a bad race.

    Posted via CB10
    04-05-16 02:11 PM
  19. Im Mo Green's Avatar
    See the problem here is your not looking for reasonable rational debate. You have been living in some fantasyland fanboyism with regards to what you think the of blackberry should be, especially with hardware, developers and marketing. You have no idea about fixed costs of running lines. logistics, etc for hardware in the current market environment. Your only answer is Marketing, but the only thing that would have done/do is blow a massive hole in the balance sheet. I can only imagine your answer would be, "whats a balance sheet?" To run a marketing budget of any substance in this smartphone environment is for blackberry plain stupid. Ask HTC a few years ago, see how that went for the stock and investors.

    You have gone on for years about user base, developers (don't make me laugh),marketing, and that tells me for years now you have no clue about the situation blackberry found itself in when Chen took over. He was brought in to save blackberry the company whatever that maybe going forward, not the BB10 OS, hardware, or whatever fantasyland idea you think blackberry was and should be.

    The way I look at is if your pissed off, "ranting", babbling on about blackberry, then Chen is doing a great job and the company has chance to survive, grow, and investors to benefit down the road. If you had your way it would have been all over long time ago.
    cjcampbell, Jahcure, Corbu and 9 others like this.
    04-05-16 02:15 PM
  20. Klipspringers Shoes's Avatar
    Just to support what you are saying, BlackBerry's S G & A during Heins' period was $ 750 MM a quarter, far greater than Apple at that time. They spent materially more across the board on patent development and advertising than Apple. The problem is that you need to have something that is marketable in order for that spend to stick. The Z10 wasn't the phone to get BB back on its feet and now we all know what happened when that money ran dry. So you can't just spend your way to success. Nor did Apple think it was necessary to spend their way to success. They were selling what consumers wanted and BlackBerry wasn't. The penalty for making that mistake is to start over with a tiny budget, and get your HW in order and that is what Chen is trying to do. The irony of it all is that if and when BB gets the right product to market, it will sell itself, they will advertise because they can, not because they have to.

    I haven't seen an advertisement for a Morgan car in many years, I know that I have to find $ 120,000 to go get one though. The same with Rolex, do you really need to see an ad to decide whether you deserve a Rolex? LOL It is all about branding, for BB, it is security first, they need to advertise that above all else, it is their bread and butter.
    Rolex do advertise, but they advertise in places where they think people who can afford their watches will see the ads. A phone isn't really in the same category of comparison, as we are dealing with devices that ARE within the price range of the average middle-class person, and not priced higher than a lot of people's cars.

    Rolex also have a huge brand presence. They are one of the most respected brands in the world. I'm not sure the BlackBerry / Rolex comparison signifies anything. People aspire to own a Rolex. People emphatically do not aspire to own a BlackBerry anymore.

    Posted via CB10
    techvisor likes this.
    04-05-16 02:18 PM
  21. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Yes, and for Usain Bolt, 9.80 is a bad race.

    Posted via CB10
    I've never said Apple is a failure. They are a cash machine. But, Morgan is right. They rely too heavily on a single product. When that product is no longer the "it" product, they will suffer. We can all think of at least one company that this has happened to.

    Posted via CB10
    Jahcure, Corbu, sidhuk and 10 others like this.
    04-05-16 02:21 PM
  22. plasmid_boy's Avatar
    30 million people didn't "want" a 4 inch phone..... 30 million people wanted a cheap, or zero cost iPhone.

    Posted via CB10
    My 12yo son wants to buy the new iPhone SE. He had fixed his iPhone 5S to death. The guy replaced the screen, power button, battery, flex cable, and couple other things. I have never seen a phone that needed so much repairs. He got the iphone about the same time I got my Passport and I haven't needed to repair a single thing on it. Now he said, "daddy, I want the new iPhone SE because it is practically the same as my 5S. But I just read on the news that they are not selling well." I offered to pay for the phone and think that it's a great phone for him to learn how to repair things himself. I just got a message (BBM) from him a few seconds ago, "daddy, don't buy the phone yet, Walmart has discount $100 off." I wonder why they needed to discount a new phone...
    sidhuk, cjcampbell, bbjdog and 8 others like this.
    04-05-16 02:26 PM
  23. cjcampbell's Avatar
    My 12yo son wants to buy the new iPhone SE. He had fixed his iPhone 5S to death. The guy replaced the screen, power button, battery, flex cable, and couple other things. I have never seen a phone that needed so much repairs. He got the iphone about the same time I got my Passport and I haven't needed to repair a single thing on it. Now he said, "daddy, I want the new iPhone SE because it is practically the same as my 5S. But I just read on the news that they are not selling well." I offered to pay for the phone and think that it's a great phone for him to learn how to repair things himself. I just got a message (BBM) from him a few seconds ago, "daddy, don't buy the phone yet, Walmart has discount $100 off." I wonder why they needed to discount a new phone...
    Hahaha. Nice. To be fair, though, a child could do that to any phone. As for the discount at Walmart.... that's crazy! I've never seen Apple allow a sale on any of their products, let alone right at launch time. If you could confirm, that'd be fantastic.

    Edit - Never mind. It's confirmed. http://m.imore.com/walmart-selling-i...discounted-100

    Edit 2 - It's only with a carrier plan.

    Posted via CB10
    sidhuk, bbjdog, bungaboy and 4 others like this.
    04-05-16 02:42 PM
  24. DeRedder's Avatar
    You don't understand that my Passport is the best phone I ever used.
    I show iPhone lovers the Hub and they all go: why didn't Apple think of this/ implement something similar.
    I show how fast I switch between apps, 1 swipe and click and it's done in less than a second.

    The news that Priv and onward phones would be Android really made me sad. The news that FB and WhatsApp stopped as well. I tested the Android whatsapp on my spare Z10 to find out it had a 2% hit on battery life a day having whatsapp active and sending 40 messages to it in a day. I love BlackBerry and I truly wish for them to succeed/ come back.
    At the same time, I am realistic. I see that Sony, HTC, LG, literally everyone except for Apple and Samsung fail to make a profit in the phone market. Samsung taking less than 5%, Apple taking more than 90%

    morganplus8, how much money did you lose on BBRY? Don't answer to me, answer to yourself. Your 'knowledge' at this point is barely wishful thinking, we both know that. I myself WANT blackberry to come back. I want BB10 to continue being the best operating system. I want to buy a Passport 2 or 3 in 2021 when my Passport 1 finally breaks.
    techvisor likes this.
    04-05-16 02:45 PM
  25. sidhuk's Avatar
    Never mind. Seems like you just show up here only selective times. I can't remember how many times I have purchased and sold BlackBerry in last 4 years. So did many other regulars in here, including morgan+8. What makes you think that no one ever sold bbry?

    Posted Via blackberry passport.
    bbjdog, CDM76, morganplus8 and 1 others like this.
    04-05-16 02:58 PM
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