View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

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  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. bbjdog's Avatar
    Armchair CEO time! Chen forget about the mid range device and instead drop the price on the Priv and introduce a Priv two in September and so on. Same for BB11. End of armchair CEO!

    Ot: Tesla has 200,000 orders for their low/mid range cars, wondering how manny barrels of oil that is?

    Posted via my BlackBerry Passport
    Last edited by bbjdog; 04-01-16 at 02:32 PM.
    04-01-16 01:45 PM
  2. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    My take of the day.

    We've seen an usual E.R report with good and bad.
    Volume is massive but I see no one hitting the panic button (read : to sell such volumes w/o making the SP in the toilet, there must be someone buying). I'd bet we'll be back in the $8's pretty soon.

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-capture.png

    Consensus keeps focusing on HW as the weak part of revenue growth, ignoring what - me, myself and I believe/guess/estimate - Chen's thinking about it : there's no BlackBerry w/o the end to end option. Solid revenue growth will balance it and those won't exist if there was no device available for enterprises and gov agencies (read : 'dead sign'). These questioners are weak; the good question would be : in your actual portfolio, what's the proportion of new customers buying the bundle device + back-end SW ? [IMHO also explains the pretty weak ASP; I smell commercial bundles here].

    Bottom line : let's ride another quarter, again ! [it's been 4 years+ already, we're not so young we can't wait ] In one word : status quo.
    Hey it's Friday, let's make it roll



    FTR
    cjcampbell, Corbu, bbjdog and 6 others like this.
    04-01-16 01:47 PM
  3. bbjdog's Avatar
    Thanks Corbu! Really nice interview. Prime Minister of Canada picked up a BlackBerry Priv after he played around with a Priv in Waterloo Ontario.

    Posted via my BlackBerry Passport
    Last edited by bbjdog; 04-01-16 at 02:14 PM.
    04-01-16 01:59 PM
  4. morganplus8's Avatar
    Well I've had a chance to do some research on BlackBerry and aside from the hardware, the numbers look very good. Hardware, .... is it dead or merely not doing as well as Wallstreet wants it to do? They held an impressive ASP of $ 315 and reduced unit costs on those handsets such that they only need 3 MM units sold to breakeven. Chen still likes handsets as much as I like my 5 welders, my wife keeps asking me to sell some of them and to make her feel better, I tell her "I'm thinking of selling a couple of them". But as you can well imagine, I'm far more likely to purchase another one within the next 6 months. What can I say, I like different types of welders for my many projects. I think Chen feels the same way, he wants to push hardware because that is where the mother-lode of money can come from, and, it carries itself today. Imagine if we could see a phone that has mass appeal, it would make BBRY soar!

    And so we have hardware doing well to the bottom line because they simply aren't selling hardware, and Chen, the evil genius, has passed those fixed costs onto others so he doesn't care. Analysts want him to drop hardware because we would see a bump in margins, he wants to keep them and to throw everyone off, he keeps reducing the "cost of not selling hardware" so much that everyone is left sitting there looking confused. I would guess that Chen sees hardware the same way I do, what good is it if you sell 1,000 phones or 1,000,000,000 phones if you are breaking even? Samsung sells a ton of handsets but they are basically carrying that division with everything else. So I'm with him, even if he feels uncomfortable about defending hardware, I think we need to sort that one out further.

    The stock, today, we are at the 50-dma and drawing a linear trading line across the afternoon board. Why? Why not! Isn't it funny how we can absorb so much damage to hardware sales and yet get the trading world to stop trading at the 50-dma? There are fully 9.6 MM shares worth of Puts/Calls falling in line at the price of anything just below $ 7.50/shr/US. So we are sitting just below the level that makes a huge difference to traders this very day. I think it is possible that we could close just pennies below $ 7.50 based upon all of those options.

    Where do we go from here? The company is out of hardware, I know this because most of the questions in the webcast were directed toward software which is growing at a projected rate of 30%/Fiscal 2017 and if MOBL can stay above $ 4.00/shr with their poor outlook, just maybe BBRY can stay above its 50-dma too. This is a Friday, revenue sucked for hardware lovers and was great for those wanting only software. Let's shut this one down and give the option traders what they hung around all day for, a $ sub - $ 7.50/close.
    Last edited by morganplus8; 04-01-16 at 02:19 PM.
    04-01-16 01:59 PM
  5. BanffMoose's Avatar
    I'm curious as to be their presence at MATS was received. How do they feel they are positioned against the incumbents? How have the beta test trials been going? What's the margin? Is it integrates into any, or planned to, of the large dispatch softwares?
    Yesterday I googled "blackberry radar" and other variations including "mats," "container," "trucking" etc. and all i found were BlackBerry or BlackBerry-centric or financial websites talking about BlackBerry Radar. Nothing about it from trucking/logistics industry-centric websites/blogs.

    Corbu: please ask your friend to bring up CJ's questions. Also can you ask your friend if he/she can ask if WorkLife/Movirtu has had any traction or interest by any carrier in the world? I thought the Economic Times of India said some Indian carriers were testing it out in 2015. Any progress updates, or is the Movirtu acquisition being written off?

    Thanks!
    04-01-16 02:03 PM
  6. Klipspringers Shoes's Avatar
    Morgan, the use of selling a million over a thousand handsets is that you expand the user base. It does matter. BlackBerry were better off selling loads of phones for a modest loss than selling few for profit. They were never able to increase their base because they stubbornly still-birthed device and device with silly pricing and no advertising. It made NO sense and should not be rationalised or defended.

    If BlackBerry had been losing money on hardware, but steadily increasing market share, it would have been a different story. Users = apps = more users. The numbers mattered. Chen's hardware strategy has been an unmitigated disaster.
    04-01-16 02:07 PM
  7. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Oh, right, I'd say I heard it well
    Great position about security : NEVER forget legacy and don't shoot on the ambulance (FBI/fruit).

    Have a great weekend gang !
    P.S: congrats for the "ambiance"
    Corbu, bbjdog, morganplus8 and 4 others like this.
    04-01-16 02:17 PM
  8. Corbu's Avatar
    I'm curious as to be their presence at MATS was received. How do they feel they are positioned against the incumbents? How have the beta test trials been going? What's the margin? Is it integrates into any, or planned to, of the large dispatch softwares?
    Noted. Thanks, CJ!
    bbjdog likes this.
    04-01-16 02:33 PM
  9. dusdal's Avatar
    Oh my. The sky has fallen . . .

    Attachment 395883
    "But I'm not dead yet!"


    Posted via CB10
    bbjdog, bungaboy and Mr BBRY like this.
    04-01-16 02:34 PM
  10. Corbu's Avatar
    Corbu: please ask your friend to bring up CJ's questions. Also can you ask your friend if he/she can ask if WorkLife/Movirtu has had any traction or interest by any carrier in the world? I thought the Economic Times of India said some Indian carriers were testing it out in 2015. Any progress updates, or is the Movirtu acquisition being written off?
    Noted. Thanks, BanffMoose!
    bbjdog and bungaboy like this.
    04-01-16 02:35 PM
  11. morganplus8's Avatar
    Morgan, the use of selling a million over a thousand handsets is that you expand the user base. It does matter. BlackBerry were better off selling loads of phones for a modest loss than selling few for profit. They were never able to increase their base because they stubbornly still-birthed device and device with silly pricing and no advertising. It made NO sense and should not be rationalised or defended.

    If BlackBerry had been losing money on hardware, but steadily increasing market share, it would have been a different story. Users = apps = more users. The numbers mattered. Chen's hardware strategy has been an unmitigated disaster.
    The 1,000 versus 1 Billion handset sales benefit was directed towards Samsung, BB would truly benefit from mass appeal because they have a suite of products to connect to that sale. At 600,000 handsets, clearly, handsets are not material in the business that is BlackBerry. Chen inherited Heins' misuse of corporate due diligence. Heins botched it up so badly that it took a $ 1.25 B cash injection to stabilize the business in the eyes of the media/market. That's behind us now but the one chance to do something right was thrown away on Heins not Chen. Let's make this clear.

    Numbers like 3 MM and breakeven won't move the needle so let's all stop talking about handsets/hardware until it is material. I for one like the cash-flow of handset sales, I did this with my business and I see why Chen is sticking to hardware in his turn around strategy. BB is getting there, analysts are looking at Q4 in a far better light then most of us are. We are hardware eccentric and the company has moved on.

    Heck, who lambasted Apple a couple of weeks ago when they brought back the iPhone 5S, the same one that dropped the stock from $ 700 - $ 380 by the way, and they are selling it for less then that same phone sold for in late 2012! I look at Apple's strategy and thank god Chen saw through that nonsense as soon as he did. With Apple anyone in a third world country can claim they own the new iPhone 7 because that iPhone 5S rocks the same look. Superfly said it right, we move out a quarter and regroup knowing we have a software company with 30% organic growth and something called hardware as a wild card. I can take that.
    cjcampbell, bbjdog, Corbu and 9 others like this.
    04-01-16 02:37 PM
  12. Corbu's Avatar
    Cool.


    Thanks, James.
    04-01-16 02:38 PM
  13. Corbu's Avatar
    Yesterday I googled "blackberry radar" and other variations including "mats," "container," "trucking" etc. and all i found were BlackBerry or BlackBerry-centric or financial websites talking about BlackBerry Radar. Nothing about it from trucking/logistics industry-centric websites/blogs.
    Some info here:

    BlackBerry hints at next big play in the Internet of Things market - Cantech Letter

    Meet Dr Chennakeshu, the man working on BlackBerry?s next big bet | The Indian Express
    04-01-16 02:41 PM
  14. bungaboy's Avatar
    "But I'm not dead yet!"


    Posted via CB10
    Well Mr. Monty, according to some old favourites and new arrivals you most certainly are.
    bbjdog likes this.
    04-01-16 02:48 PM
  15. world traveler and former ceo's Avatar
    One of the Key takeaways here ... by this September, He expects Hardware to be profitable; otherwise ... by his definition the "reasonable time" .. is one year from last September
    ....he goes on to state that HW losses cut in q4 to half of what they were in q3 ... so progress being made

    .. also, software and services ...$527m expected to grow 30 percent next twelve months (without M&A) ,,, so thats $685m a year from now ... and he expects to do further M&A ,,, so we could be looking at a $1 billion software and services (alone) within the next 18 months ...
    Last edited by world traveler and former ceo; 04-01-16 at 03:03 PM.
    04-01-16 02:53 PM
  16. Klipspringers Shoes's Avatar
    Yes, huge mistakes were made before Chen. That's for sure. I still think Chen has been absolutely horrible where HW is concerned, but it's all spilt milk now. There is no way HW will be a sunny picture in September, so unless something really unexpected happens, that's it: ballgame.

    The question is, with HW finished, is BBM next to go?

    Posted via CB10
    04-01-16 02:53 PM
  17. bbjdog's Avatar
    sorry gang! have to deal with my monkey withdrawal symptoms.



    04-01-16 03:04 PM
  18. randall2580's Avatar
    I think Chen feels the same way, he wants to push hardware because that is where the mother-lode of money can come from, and, it carries itself today. Imagine if we could see a phone that has mass appeal, it would make BBRY soar!
    @Morgan thanks as always for your thoughtful commentary.

    I waited for someone, anyone to ask Chen what the mix was and finally Amber did just that when she asked the percentage of the total that was Priv and he replied something like "the bulk of it" and then hedged a bit more because he really doesn't want the numbers out it seems.

    BlackBerry has a core of sales that they get it seems no matter what phone or device they are pushing this month. The point is that 600,000 or so won't get him to break even so he needs to find a phone that will attract outside the core. Seems like at this moment his thoughts are the "mid-range" phone is their next attempt to find it.

    Chen has to find new buyers of the hardware IMHO and not a big number. He just needs to bring in some new buyers. They don't seem to have found the formula just yet. Chen seems to feel really good about fixing that. He came out with the Leap for enterprise but that seems to have failed. He's still talking about a phone he can market, in similar fashion and price directly the enterprise. He must be hearing from the big players that"s what they want from him. Corbu that would be my question for your friend - what is he hearing from them that he thinks this continues to be an avenue worth pursuing? Would love for him to elaborate a bit more about that.

    That's my takeaway from what I heard today regarding the hardware.

    Software seemed to be mostly good news.
    04-01-16 03:10 PM
  19. Corbu's Avatar
    Chen has to find new buyers of the hardware IMHO and not a big number. He just needs to bring in some new buyers. They don't seem to have found the formula just yet. Chen seems to feel really good about fixing that. He came out with the Leap for enterprise but that seems to have failed. He's still talking about a phone he can market, in similar fashion and price directly the enterprise. He must be hearing from the big players that"s what they want from him. Corbu that would be my question for your friend - what is he hearing from them that he thinks this continues to be an avenue worth pursuing? Would love for him to elaborate a bit more about that.
    Noted. Thanks, randall2580!
    04-01-16 03:13 PM
  20. app_Developer's Avatar
    .. also, software and services ...$527m expected to grow 30 percent next twelve months (without M&A) ,,, so thats $685m a year from now ... and he expects to do further M&A ,,, so we could be looking at a $1 billion software and services (alone) within the next 18 months ...
    Even better, it should be more like $730M for the current fiscal year at 30 percent organic growth. (remember they start the year with a run rate higher than the $527 number).

    So yes, they are an acquisition or two away from a run rate of $250M/Q within 12-18 months.
    04-01-16 03:16 PM
  21. Corbu's Avatar
    I know you are all anxious to hear from our friend.

    Here he is:

    Morgan Stanley

    James E Faucette

    April 1, 2016

    BlackBerry Ltd.

    Devices Disappoint as Cost Cuts Continue

    Worse than expected device shipments likely accelerates timeline to exiting hardware, while core software growth will likely remain challenged without additional acquisitions.

    Exiting devices business becoming more likely. BlackBerry recognized hardware revenue on 0.6mm devices, notably below our original estimate of 0.9mm devices as management cited delays in rolling out the Priv at certain carriers and saturation of the high-end handset market. Our own checks found slightly better Priv availability at launched carriers over previous handset models, and while we still expect some momentum in the coming quarter as additional carriers come on line, FQ4 performance suggests that early purchase activity for the Priv is even lower than what we would have originally thought. Continued cost cuts lowered the break even threshold to approximately 3mm devices, but we think worse than expected performance has likely accelerated the company's plans to exit the hardware business entirely.

    Software better than expected but little change to our outlook. FQ4 software revenue of $171mm exceeded our original estimate of $130mm on better than expected organic growth (management cited 24% YoY organic growth). While the amount of contribution from BES12 v. QNX v. T-Support remains unclear, we continue to believe the MDM market is facing significant pricing pressure from bundled enterprise software solutions and the embedded OS market is seeing limited growth due to free and open-source substitutes. We also note that the company has historically benefited from TSupport renewals at year-end. Continued challenges lead us to believe that management's FY17 guidance for 30% YoY growth in software will require additional acquisitions.

    Revising revenue estimates downwards while cost cuts continue. Our 1Q17 and FY17 revenue / EPS estimates are now $484mm / ($0.08) and $1.70bn / ($0.29) from $545mm / ($0.16) and $1.90bn / ($0.68) respectively. Our revenue estimates decline on worse than expected device sales partially offset by better than expected software growth and an estimated $20mm in FY17 licensing revenue. Our EPS estimates improve as we anticipate the company will continue to cut costs in the devices business.

    Remain EW and a $7PT as cost cuts continue to preserve optionality. Our $7 PT is 3.5x our FY18 software revenue forecast. Management continues to preserve its net cash position of ~$2.50 per share through cost cuts in light of continued struggles to achieve profitability in the devices business. We expect that the company will need to continue cutting costs especially if management continues to acquire software assets to achieve its growth targets. For the time being, the flexibility of the balance sheet and the ability to generate cash at reduced revenue levels outweigh poor business fundamentals.
    04-01-16 03:27 PM
  22. bbjdog's Avatar
    I am so disappointed with our friend James! I was expecting him to apologize for doubting John Chen and the BlackBerry team for their hit with the 500 Million on software. Guess they have to find something else to pick on.

    One more thing, Corbu, can you ask your friend if Blackberry will be having a beer party. Lol

    Posted via my BlackBerry Passport
    04-01-16 03:46 PM
  23. Corbu's Avatar
    One more thing, Corbu, can you ask your friend if Blackberry will be having a beer party. Lol
    Noted. Thanks, bbjdog!
    bbjdog likes this.
    04-01-16 03:48 PM
  24. BanffMoose's Avatar
    Hmmm, I guess I should feel bad for not buying a Priv? The Priv was the first BlackBerry phone that I haven't had even a slight bit of interest in simply because of the OS. I haven't even gone into any store just to look at it either. Meanwhile, why aren't more people trying to dump their Verizon Z30s in the Marketplace?!? Is ebay the best place to buy a used/refurbished Z30? Heck, if BlackBerry made a Priv with Z30 internals, I'd buy several without thinking twice.
    04-01-16 03:50 PM
  25. anon(8865116)'s Avatar
    I know you are all anxious to hear from our friend.

    Here he is:
    I actually think Faucette has been pretty accurate on BB for the past 2 years. Its hard to hear because the guy gives 0 optimism, but I believe him and Simona from Morgan Stanley got burned hxc from their optimistic analyst predictions back when the z10 came out.

    I don't think Chen can make exactly 30% or above without buying other companies which isn't that bad but it does rely on a bit of timing and luck. After-all, they're not the only security or IOT company. The question I often ask myself is why is it worth holding shares now when they could potentially miss again and again with the only saving grace being software growth that has yet to produce a net gaap profit and has to compete with the decline of SAF which is still like 30% of revenue that is super high margin.

    There's no wild card that could really surprise earnings beyond phones. Their software business growth doesn't produce wild valuations (based on historical growth) I'm even more worried QNX will become irrelevant in cars as other companies / open source projects come in. I know QNX is the leader in this space but I don't know how much disposable cash they'll have to research in this space going forward to stay competitive. Chen kind of chuckled that QNX wasn't that expensive on the call. To me, that's a dangerous mentality that we have seen before...

    I understand why he wants to keep handsets with such a low volume to break even but I don't think you can go for low expenses and think any phone you'll put out will compete with Samsung, LG, or HTC. Guess we will see...
    sati01 likes this.
    04-01-16 04:03 PM
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