View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

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  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. Corbu's Avatar
    03-31-16 12:54 PM
  2. Corbu's Avatar
    BlackBerry Earnings: What to Watch - WSJ

    Canadian smartphone-maker BlackBerry Ltd. is set to report financial results for its final quarter of fiscal 2016 before markets open Friday. Results each quarter are watched closely for signs of how Chief Executive John Chen’s turnaround efforts are faring, and this one will be no different. Of particular interest will be software and services sales, a key area of focus in BlackBerry’s bid to boost revenue.

    EARNINGS FORECAST: Analysts expect a loss of 10 cents a share for the quarter ended Feb. 29, according to Thomson Reuters. That would be well off its year-earlier profit of 4 cents a share and bigger than its third-quarter loss of 3 cents per share.

    REVENUE FORECAST: Revenue is expected to fall 15% from a year earlier, to $563 million, according to analysts. Still, that would be an improvement over third-quarter revenue of $548 million. BlackBerry has guided for fourth-quarter revenue to be at or slightly above the third-quarter level.

    WHAT TO WATCH:

    --SOFTWARE & SERVICES REVENUE: For more than a year, BlackBerry has been targeting fiscal 2016 revenue from software and services of $500 million. In the third quarter, those revenue sources made up $154 million of total revenue, which brought nine-month software and services revenue to $364 million. That leaves $136 million remaining in the fiscal fourth quarter to reach its annual target.

    --PRIV DEVICE: BlackBerry launched the Priv, its first Android-based device, in November in a bid to revive its smartphone business. This marks the first full quarter of sales for the device and investors will be watching closely for any indication of how well the phone is selling. TD Securities Inc. said it expects the rollout had a “modest impact” on handset shipments. In the third quarter, BlackBerry recognized revenue on about 700,000 handsets, down 65% from the prior year. The company has guided for “sequential growth” in hardware revenue for the fourth quarter.

    --OUTLOOK: Any comments on guidance will be closely parsed. BlackBerry has said it expects to continue to generate positive free cash flow for the “foreseeable future,” but cautioned in its third-quarter financial statements that it may not reach “sustainable non-GAAP profitability” by the end of fiscal 2016.
    cjcampbell, bbjdog, sidhuk and 9 others like this.
    03-31-16 12:57 PM
  3. spiller's Avatar
    850K privs and only 571M total rev?

    Why are my rev estimates so high for about that total including 35% bb10.

    Posted via CB10
    03-31-16 01:37 PM
  4. lcjr's Avatar
    DoD ordering more Privs since we have the BES12 on 1 April. I know the few I ordered are in and waiting for the IT folks to load our profiles on them. Can't wait!

    Posted via CB10
    03-31-16 01:54 PM
  5. morganplus8's Avatar
    My apologizes, I was speaking on behave of those 1% or so of our thread followers who bought BBRY back when this thread launched, and; who haven't purchased more to average down, taken on other investments, traded BBRY several times, who haven't written Call Options or Put Options to generate income, etc., .... to change their cost entry point. You can learn something from these wild posts, and those who "like" them too, they aren't here to help you. So don't waste your time responding to such nonsense, if you are part of that 1% who bought BBRY and did nothing with that investment, you still don't have to answer to these people.

    None of this will matter tomorrow morning at 7:30 AM when we are all over the REAL data for Q4. Good luck to everyone! M8
    Last edited by morganplus8; 03-31-16 at 02:22 PM.
    03-31-16 02:06 PM
  6. morganplus8's Avatar
    Hey M8 I know you busy but would you be able to shed some input on ECA and oil trade? I covered half my short at a very minimal loss when it dipped to 7.2 cad but FED dovish tone and lower usd seems to be holding everything up, TA just seems it's in a limbo range of 7-8cad

    Thanks again! And hope all is well

    Posted via CB10
    I mentioned the last time we spoke that this is one of those trades that can grind on for several weeks. This week, the stock was saved by NatGas moving above its 50-dma and the talk of more property for sale. The stock is back up on lighter volume but I still believe that with patience, you can see this one back to $ 7.00/shr/cdn or its 50-dma. A proper top takes weeks to develop so you would be better off to find an exit point to achieve "even" and re-enter it fresh. I'm still a buyer just under $ 5.00/US (at the 50-dma). Good luck with it and don't think so much about the economy as much as how much oil can still go into storage before the system fails itself.
    bbjdog, KuroKei, bungaboy and 9 others like this.
    03-31-16 02:16 PM
  7. Corbu's Avatar
    WF report:

    Wells Fargo Securities
    Maynard Um, Senior Analyst

    March 31, 2016

    BlackBerry Limited

    BBRY: Expect Solid Quarter But Priv Sell-Through Key

    Our analysis suggests gross margin (gm) could be better than guide. We forecast revs/EPS of $571MM/$(0.06) vs Street’s $565MM/($0.10) and guidance of in line or better than ($0.11) for FQ4. While GM guide is in the range of 40% (incl. the roll off of IP payment amortization), we forecast 47.6% assuming Priv units of 850K at GM of 25% and other segment GM holding relatively steady. That said, Priv appears to have only launched in 20 countries vs the 31 expected on the last call, which could have some impact on units though, on a relative basis, is still not large (our ests imply 40.5k units/country vs 27.4k). Software (SW) revs for the yr should exceed the $500MM target driven by a full qtr of Good and AtHoc as well as QNX growth. Opex could benefit from restructuring in the qtr, though the full benefit is more likely in future qtrs (or offset by channel investments). We forecast FCF of $135MM. We believe guidance next qtr will be dictated by sell-through of Priv and expect that visibility to whether a strategic decision needs to be made on the hardware (HW) business could come in the next qtr or two. SW should see growth for the full year driven by acquisitions and easy comps while Service revs should continue to decline at a mid to high teens percentage pace. We expect to get more detailed disclosure around BBRY’s businesses but think the direction of the HW biz will be the most important.

    Business segments are in different stages as enterprise security preps to focus on driving revenue through its broader portfolio, QNX/Internet of Things may look to advance its strategy w/ M&A, IP still in early stages of monetization, hardware in a period of exploration to determine whether there is a market for more secure Android phones, and service access fees in transitional decline. Change in FY end takes 5 days out of the qtr but likely embedded into guide. FY ends on last day of Feb. Prior was last Saturday of Feb or first Saturday of Mar.

    Priv sell-in to help revs. We forecast Hardware revs of $275MM (Street: $260MM), up seq from Priv sell-in to 20+ countries (up from 4 at end of FQ3) but vs 31 countries expected on last earnings call. We are surprised by a lack of announcement on a new handset though think Priv sell-thru is more important.

    Expect BBRY to achieve $500MM annual software target with our FQ4 est at $150MM (Street: $158MM), largely driven by a full quarter contribution of Good/AtHoc and QNX growth from new car year model releases. Annualizing FQ4 results in F17 revs of at least $600MM though we expect some growth in segments such as QNX and some acquisitions.

    Restructuring could help EPS given Feb. 5th layoffs of 200 employees. Opex guide was flat to slightly down - our est is $281MM (Street: $310MM) vs $285MM last qtr. Every $4MM in opex savings equals a penny in EPS.

    Valuation Range: $7.25 to $8.00
    Our range is based on a FY2017 sum of the parts: 0.5x sales for Hardware, 0.1x for Services, and 2.75x for Software + cash. BBRY faces several downside/upside risks. Downside risks include business model trasition, uncertain hardware demand, and continued lack of profits. Upside risks include potential shareholder activism to spin off/sell assets, other strategic actions, or better than expected demand.

    Investment Thesis:
    We believe the business model is still transitioning away from legacy service access fee and T-Support revenue and while its security, QNX and Internet of Things revenue are growing, visibility to its new product demand is still low.
    03-31-16 02:17 PM
  8. lcjr's Avatar
    Morgan, it sure is good to see you in good health and contributing to the thread. Sooooooo much respect. Lenny

    Posted via CB10
    03-31-16 02:23 PM
  9. Corbu's Avatar
    And a good luck charm from Xenia for tomorrow's EC:

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-12080537_1011260252290936_1887374461_n.jpg
    03-31-16 02:39 PM
  10. Corbu's Avatar
    03-31-16 02:41 PM
  11. morganplus8's Avatar
    Morgan, it sure is good to see you in good health and contributing to the thread. Sooooooo much respect. Lenny

    Posted via CB10
    So glad you remembered us!

    Hope all is well with you? Nice to hear that DoD is onto the PRIV too. Tomorrow we get some news so please join us for the celebration. Man, this is like a reunion of sorts, maybe we'll hear from some others too, take care!
    03-31-16 02:44 PM
  12. lcjr's Avatar
    I'm always with you guys my friend. Always. Just life events cause a pause in thread contribution. I'm in Belgium right now dealing with recent events and hoping to jump over to Germany soon for a change of pace. Morgan, i'm forever loyal to this group of highly educated and inspired investors and will support however I can in my humble status. Hopefully soon I can be more active like before, but I do work for the DoD so you know what my world is like today. Keep up what's going on because from what I can see, we are in for some very exciting times in the very near future that will last a very long time. Go BBRY!

    Posted via CB10
    03-31-16 02:55 PM
  13. randall2580's Avatar
    If you would like to listen in on the conference call tomorrow, 8AM Eastern Time:

    Investor Events - Canada
    03-31-16 02:55 PM
  14. lcjr's Avatar
    Thanks Randall2880!

    Posted via CB10
    03-31-16 02:57 PM
  15. lcjr's Avatar
    I mean Randall 2580.

    Posted via CB10
    03-31-16 02:58 PM
  16. spiller's Avatar
    WF report:
    2.75x for software business? Really?

    SOP seems well undervalued but estimates look fair.

    Posted via CB10
    03-31-16 03:00 PM
  17. spiller's Avatar
    From 8.18 to 8.09 in the final 30.

    Posting around 7:08am and hoping the verbage used is exciting.

    Posted via CB10
    03-31-16 03:02 PM
  18. bungaboy's Avatar
    I mean Randall 2580.

    Posted via CB10
    You just devalued our Randall. WTF? LoL
    Last edited by bungaboy; 03-31-16 at 03:14 PM.
    03-31-16 03:03 PM
  19. randall2580's Avatar
    You just devalued our Randall. WTF? LoL
    When I'm in Canada I'm 2880, an easy mistake to make
    03-31-16 03:18 PM
  20. lcjr's Avatar
    Well at least I got the name right. Although normally I would be flogged with a wet noodle otherwise. Lol


    Posted via CB10
    03-31-16 03:28 PM
  21. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Well well well. Another ER is upon us. All bets have been placed and nothing left to but drink beer and and wait. I'm not going to go into much but post my two charts. BBRY trades the technicals. I haven't drawn a new line in quite a while since she trades predictably. If it's a good report, we should be good 'til $8.60 before hitting anything, then $8.80 then $9.50. If bad, $7.50 should provide support, but that depends on how "bad". All it needs, though, is light at the end of the tunnel to go up. No home run needed, but simply a double.

    Good luck to all.

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-screen-shot-2016-03-31-4.17.26-pm.pngThe BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-screen-shot-2016-03-31-4.20.25-pm.png
    03-31-16 03:32 PM
  22. Corbu's Avatar
    03-31-16 03:50 PM
  23. yessuz's Avatar
    tomorrow we will hit 9 $ EASILY
    03-31-16 04:00 PM
  24. morganplus8's Avatar
    From 8.18 to 8.09 in the final 30.

    Posting around 7:08am and hoping the verbage used is exciting.

    Posted via CB10
    I was heading off to find a cold one when I saw your post and knew it wouldn't be right if I didn't state my trades for today. I looked at all of the possibilities going into the close and decided to write naked Puts at $ 8.00 and at $ 8.50 US expiring tomorrow! We'll either own more stock or get to take the family out for a crazy good dinner. I like the fact that we had no problem holding onto $ 8.00 today so this doesn't look too bad for tomorrow. If they are even close on 850,000 Privs shipped we will be North of $ 9.00 on that news. I'm biased though, really long this time, good everyone!
    03-31-16 04:09 PM
  25. DeRedder's Avatar
    If we go to 9.00 I will take my girlfriend out to dinner! And I will bring flowers to my mother.
    Superfly_FR, rarsen and bungaboy like this.
    03-31-16 04:19 PM
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