View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1106. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. Jahcure's Avatar
    OT:


    Apple made more revenue on the Apple Watch than most companies (including Blackberry) are worth. Unless you are under the impression that they sold $3 billion worth of Apple TVs. And if you think the iPhone hasn't changed at all since its original introduction in 2007, well, that's some pretty impressive ignorance.
    Well they keep hiding the numbers and dumping it in the "other" section, if the watch was pulling in crazy numbers they wouldn't put it in the "other" section. Apple loves to gloat and rightfully so, but they are very humble when it comes to iwatch sales. The other category includes tv, watch, beats and ipod.

    Posted via CB10
    01-28-16 07:19 AM
  2. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    [warn]
    Alright, let's get back to the topic, all is said now.
    [/warn]
    If you are in the envy to discuss further =>
    There's a fantastic MoNa place for that : iMore | The #1 site for iPhone, iPad, Mac, and all things Apple! !

    Thanks.
    01-28-16 08:28 AM
  3. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    You must be on to something here SF. BlackBerry may take a lead advantage. I like what I see here.
    Posted Via blackberry passport.
    What I can tell you is that no more than 6 months ago, it was not a good idea to state anything negative against Samy if you were anyway linked to or employee of BlackBerry. So, that's a shock, really.
    I can also swear I've no idea of the signification (if any) of this and I'll let each on his own make his mind.
    rarsen, sidhuk, La Emperor and 4 others like this.
    01-28-16 08:37 AM
  4. bspence87's Avatar
    What I can tell you is that no more than 6 months ago, it was not a good idea to state anything negative against Samy if you were anyway linked to or employee of BlackBerry. So, that's a shock, really.
    I can also swear I've no idea of the signification (if any) of this and I'll let each on his own make his mind.
    Reminds me of the time when Chen joked about his wife carrying a Samsung. Shortly after, partnership was formed.

    I don't see their partnership going bad, so I'm inclined to think BlackBerry may be working on becoming a security contractor for Samsung. It makes sense with some of the other comments that JC has made in the past about what they would do with their software.
    sidhuk, 3MIKE, bungaboy and 1 others like this.
    01-28-16 10:41 AM
  5. randall2580's Avatar
    Reminds me of the time when Chen joked about his wife carrying a Samsung. Shortly after, partnership was formed.

    I don't see their partnership going bad, so I'm inclined to think BlackBerry may be working on becoming a security contractor for Samsung. It makes sense with some of the other comments that JC has made in the past about what they would do with their software.
    Samsung and Apple have been in court for years. At the moment Sammy owes Apple a nice chunk of change. Doesn't change the fact that Sammy still makes the processors for Apple.

    I see it as unlikely a blog post is going to change the fact that Sammy is making those wonderful screens on the Priv that get rave reviews.
    3MIKE, Corbu, sidhuk and 5 others like this.
    01-28-16 11:12 AM
  6. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    Welcome to 2016....
    Anecdotally of course

    Posted via the device I grabbed today.
    Attached Thumbnails The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-41824.jpg  
    01-28-16 11:19 AM
  7. OlympusMons's Avatar
    OT (again):

    SPHS Halted Pending announcement...

    "Sophiris Bio Reports Encouraging Preliminary Data from Phase 2a Proof of Concept Study in Localized Prostate Cancer
    ...A review of the biopsy data from the first seven men to complete the study showed that four patients experienced a response to treatment: One patient experienced complete ablation of the tumor where no evidence of the treated tumor remained on a targeted biopsy at 6 months; three patients experienced either a reduction in the maximum cancer core length or a reduction in Gleason pattern; three patients had no response to treatment.

    "This new trial is very exciting -- we have promising data showing that topsalysin can ablate cancer cells and we look forward to reviewing the results from the remaining 11 patients as they complete the study. We could be on the cusp of a new class of therapeutics for the focal treatment of localized prostate cancer," stated Professor Mark Emberton, Dean, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University College London and Honorary Consultant Urologist University College London Hospital NHS Foundation Trust...."

    Now back to our regular scheduled programming...to find a good entry point for BB
    01-28-16 12:03 PM
  8. bbjdog's Avatar
    Blackberry love!


    http://blogs.blackberry.com/2016/01/...-winter-deals/

    Posted via my BlackBerry Passport
    Corbu, cjcampbell, rarsen and 2 others like this.
    01-28-16 12:18 PM
  9. cjcampbell's Avatar
    OT - SPHS.... wow.... and I thought BlackBerry could yo-yo. Lol

    Posted via CB10
    3MIKE, sidhuk, bizzarothor and 3 others like this.
    01-28-16 12:32 PM
  10. masterful's Avatar
    OT (again):

    SPHS Halted Pending announcement...

    "Sophiris Bio Reports Encouraging Preliminary Data from Phase 2a Proof of Concept Study in Localized Prostate Cancer
    ...A review of the biopsy data from the first seven men to complete the study showed that four patients experienced a response to treatment: One patient experienced complete ablation of the tumor where no evidence of the treated tumor remained on a targeted biopsy at 6 months; three patients experienced either a reduction in the maximum cancer core length or a reduction in Gleason pattern; three patients had no response to treatment.

    "This new trial is very exciting -- we have promising data showing that topsalysin can ablate cancer cells and we look forward to reviewing the results from the remaining 11 patients as they complete the study. We could be on the cusp of a new class of therapeutics for the focal treatment of localized prostate cancer," stated Professor Mark Emberton, Dean, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University College London and Honorary Consultant Urologist University College London Hospital NHS Foundation Trust...."

    Now back to our regular scheduled programming...to find a good entry point for BB
    Wow

    Posted via my PRIV
    cjcampbell likes this.
    01-28-16 12:34 PM
  11. OlympusMons's Avatar
    OT - SPHS.... wow.... and I thought BlackBerry could yo-yo. Lol

    Posted via CB10
    ...and we're down now...LOL
    gotta love the sell on news profit taking
    3MIKE likes this.
    01-28-16 12:39 PM
  12. sidhuk's Avatar
    OT.
    SPHS web cast at 2pm EST.
    http://edge.media-server.com/m/p/sszrencj
    01-28-16 12:59 PM
  13. Corbu's Avatar
    OT: Biotech
    Biotech Stocks: An Rx Is Hard to Find - WSJ

    Biotech investors must have strong stomachs. Nowadays they really have to have cast iron ones given the sector's volatility.

    Thursday offered yet another example. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index dropped more than 5% in morning trading. It managed to claw some of that back later in the day. Even so, the index is now off by more than 20% this month alone.

    Disappointing news explains part of Thursday's decline. Vertex Pharmaceuticals, for instance, said Wednesday that it was uncomfortable with analyst consensus revenue projections. Additionally, Incyte announced Wednesday that it had halted a Phase 2 clinical trial for colorectal cancer due to lack of efficacy.

    Given that biotech stocks tend to derive much of their value from the prospect of future riches, as opposed to profit and revenue today, a clouded outlook is particularly jarring.

    Alarmingly for the sector, Thursday's turbulence wasn't accompanied by a decline in the broader equity markets. Stocks of all kinds have done poorly this year, but the Nasdaq 100 has outperformed biotech by 12 percentage points in January. That is a change from recent years, when biotech stocks topped a strong market.

    And the biotech index is now firmly in bear-market territory, down more than 30% from its peak last summer. Price declines are bound to let up at some point, of course. However, investors should also bear in mind that the index more than doubled between end of 2012 and the start of 2015.

    That run came against a backdrop of stock investors essentially acquiescing to the Federal Reserve's zero-interest- rate policies. They went all in to stocks and biotech was one of the chief beneficiaries.

    With the Fed now turning course, biotech stocks may have a long, uncomfortable journey ahead of them.
    01-28-16 01:51 PM
  14. 3MIKE's Avatar
    Guys, check out my last post on the thread below

    http://forums.crackberry.com/bbry-f3...cation-853728/
    01-28-16 01:57 PM
  15. Andy_bb_king's Avatar
    Hi Folks,

    Thanks very much for your likes, thanks and valued opinions.
    CTXS's latest quarter result came out last night. So today, I continue to dig more reading and crunching some more numbers.

    Here is my new analysis based on some new info and adjustment.

    I want to value BBRY from free cash flow perspective by comparing to CTXS.
    Based on BBRY's Q1 and Q2 cash flow, the average of free cash flow per quarter for BBRY is 112 million on quality software which excludes SAF and one-time patent deals. Q3 for BBRY is exceptional due to big acquisitions and Priv launch, so I choose not to use Q3 numbers.
    We know Good itself will bring 40 million revenue alone, give it 50% margin, then it is 20 million cash flow.
    Remember Chen's goal for messaging alone is 50 million per year, so new message revenue per quarter might be 10 million per quarter considering its high margin.
    We know QNX contribute 100 million in year 2014. Let's say if QNX grow 20% per year, then additional cash will be 5 million per quarter.
    I believe AdHoc/SecuSmart can grow additional cash flow about 5 million per quarter to be conservative.
    So I come up with BBRY's near future cash flow per quarter by adding current cash flow per quarter and all other additional growing cash flow, which is 112 million per quarter.
    Here is the formula of calculating the projected share price: CTXS's market cap divided by its free cash flow per quarter and multiple by BBRY's cash flow and then divided by current BBRY's market cap and then multiple BBRY's current share price projected free cash flow per quarter on software only.
    That is 10420/206*112.8/3710*7= 10.77
    CTXS's latest quarter's free cash flow is 282 million. If I use this number it is 10420/282*112.8/3710*7= 7.86 So BBRY should be at $10.77 or 7.86 stock excluding hardware.
    It is not very far from current share price after all (Kind of sad). Hardware business is the wild card and if it became neutral or positive, then it would be a much better story.
    Now, it will all depend on how much growth it will have in the future.

    Below is the updated supporting numbers:

    Cash flow From Operating Activities - Six months : BBRY
    Total Cash from Operations : 244
    Net Income : 119
    Depreciation/Depletion : 327
    Deferred Taxes : -29
    Non-Cash Items : -299
    Changes in Working Capital : 126
    One time cash received due to patent deal : 53
    SAF : 344.4
    Total Cash excluding Non-Cash Items and other one time patent deal : 145.6

    Calculating Share Price BBRY
    Total Equity : 3,454
    Market Cap : 3,710
    Current Share Price : 7
    Current Cash flow per quarter : 72.8
    Additional Cash flow from BES12 : 0
    Additional Cash flow from Good : 20
    Additional Cash flow from AdHoc/SecuSmart : 5
    Additional Cash flow from Messaging : 10
    Additional Cash flow from Movirtu : 0
    Additional Cash flow from QNX : 5
    Targe Cashflow Total on quality software : 112.8
    Target Share Price on software business : 10.77
    Targe Cashflow Total on quality software based on Latest quarter's 7.86
    Additional Cash value on BBRY : 5.00
    Target Share Price on hardware business : ?


    I also want to comment about BES12's Growth prospects
    CTXS is getting 181 million revenue from their Workspace solution which is the competing product to BES12/Good
    VMW (Airwatch), I am using 60% of revenue to CTXS, is getting 108.6 million from its Workspace solution
    MobileIron is getting 50 million.
    Let's ignore other competitors and just sum up these 3 company's revenue it would be 340 million per quarter to grab for BBRY.
    If it can grab 10% more market share it will be 34 million per quarter.

    So either my analysis above is totally wrong or BBRY is seriously under valued. I really wish and appreciate anyone could point out if any of my calculation is wrong.
    Last edited by Andy_bb_king; 01-28-16 at 03:52 PM.
    01-28-16 02:20 PM
  16. Corbu's Avatar
    01-28-16 03:19 PM
  17. Corbu's Avatar
    01-28-16 03:19 PM
  18. Andy_bb_king's Avatar
    Hi Folks,

    I found a flaw on my projected BBRY's share price calculation above and I have edited it. Also copied the updated part here,

    Here is the formula of calculating the projected share price: CTXS's market cap divided by its free cash flow per quarter and multiple by BBRY's cash flow and then divided by current BBRY's market cap and then multiple BBRY's current share price on software business only.
    That is 10420/206*112.8/3710*7= 10.77
    CTXS's latest quarter's free cash flow is 282 million. If I use this number it is 10420/282*112.8/3710*7= 7.86 So BBRY should be at $10.77 or 7.86 stock excluding hardware.
    It is not very far from current share price after all (kind of sad). Hardware business is the wild card and if it became neutral or positive, then it would be a much better story.
    Now, it will all depend on how much growth it will have in the future.

    I am kind of sad but also happy to have some hard numbers to validate the share price. I also think it will be helpful for next quarter earnings when it comes out.
    rarsen, Corbu, CDM76 and 5 others like this.
    01-28-16 03:57 PM
  19. masterful's Avatar
    Thanks Andy.

    Posted via my PRIV
    Corbu likes this.
    01-28-16 04:16 PM
  20. slipstream89's Avatar
    SPHS

    Good report but very disappointed in SP movement, CC im surprised nothing was mentioned about possible partnership or way of funding..disappointed in the stock movement

    Posted via CB10
    01-28-16 05:12 PM
  21. cjcampbell's Avatar
    SPHS

    Good report but very disappointed in SP movement, CC im surprised nothing was mentioned about possible partnership or way of funding..disappointed in the stock movement

    Posted via CB10
    I'm glad they didn't mention money. Vultures were circling waiting for share dilution for a short opportunity. Since this is fresh news, they now, and it seems they alluded to the idea, have a far better story to go pitch a partnership. One drug, two fantastic opportunities.

    Posted via CB10
    01-28-16 05:44 PM
  22. OlympusMons's Avatar
    I'm glad they didn't mention money. Vultures were circling waiting for share dilution for a short opportunity. Since this is fresh news, they now, and it seems they alluded to the idea, have a far better story to go pitch a partnership. One drug, two fantastic opportunities.

    Posted via CB10
    Yes, but it was such a perplexing day...sell off in the morning, then shoots to $2.70 after the news release, then sells off for the rest of the day. With volume of 2.8M shares I don't know who's accumulating and who is churning. Maybe there wasn't a large enough short position to create a squeeze or the shorts are keeping a lid on it by shorting more? Either way, I'm at a loss for an explanation. Maybe our resident Biotech guru Morgan may be able to shed some light on it if he has time to chime in.

    ...I need to hit a certain target as my SPHS shares are earmarked for conversion to BBRY darn it!
    CDM76 and Mr BBRY like this.
    01-28-16 07:37 PM
  23. sidhuk's Avatar
    01-28-16 09:52 PM
  24. masterful's Avatar
    Thanks sid

    Posted via my PRIV
    Corbu likes this.
    01-28-16 09:53 PM
  25. slipstream89's Avatar
    You might be right, in same boat as Olympic want it to reach a certain sp to buy bbry again. I found it weird that there was no halt for the news...halt was due to volatility, was triggered when it jumped to 2.70


    I'm glad they didn't mention money. Vultures were circling waiting for share dilution for a short opportunity. Since this is fresh news, they now, and it seems they alluded to the idea, have a far better story to go pitch a partnership. One drug, two fantastic opportunities.

    Posted via CB10


    Posted via CB10
    3MIKE and morganplus8 like this.
    01-28-16 11:10 PM
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